The Gambler and the Investor: Two Models of Fandom

The day after Game Seven of the 2003 ALCS between the Red Sox and Yankees, I talked briefly, mournfully with my friend Leo, another Son of the New England States. While I had watched the game in a sports bar in Missoula, MT (where I was accidentally pursuing a bachelor’s degree*), Leo, who lived in New York, had acquired a ticket and gone to the game alone. Which, that means he had witnessed firsthand Aaron Boone’s game-ending dongpiece off Tim Wakefield, had found himself seconds later amidst a repulsive and jubilant (and considerably less homer-friendly) Yankee Stadium, and had made his way home on a subway car populated almost entirely by spiritually verklempt Red Sox fans.

*At the University, not the bar.

The thing Leo said the next day that has always stuck with me was something like, “I keep betting on the Red Sox, Carson, not with money but with my emotional well-being.” He discussed the degree to which, instead of his personal relationships, his career prospects — anything, in fact, that would normally inform a person’s inner life — he allowed the fate of the Red Sox to dictate almost entirely his emotional highs and lows.

Leo’s was a good assessment of how I, too, had approached my baseball fandom — less as an innocent pastime and more as a psychological instrument.

This is not all that shocking: many young men, particularly those of an analytic bent, view emotion as inefficient. Other People — regarded as “hell” by a certain Nobel-winning Frenchman — are notoriously unreliable. The prospect of allowing chance (i.e. Boston’s prospects) to inform one’s mood is quite rational, really.

There was only one flaw to this thinking. Apart from the fact that, through 2003, Boston had very often fielded interesting teams — notably, the Pedro-led teams of the late-90s and, before that, any of the teams which featured Randy Kutcher’s moustache — almost none of them were particularly well-constructed. Wunderkind Theo Epstein wasn’t hired until after the 2002 season and, therefore, was unable to fully assert his Genius upon the organization in 2003. As a result, they (i.e. the Red Sox anytime from 1979 – 2003) were probably not a great bet upon which to stake one’s personal welfare. The pay out would be great, certainly, if and when it came, but the odds of great success were low.

Two things have changed since then.

First is that the Red Sox won the World Series. Twice, in case you don’t remember. Theo Epstein and Friends got their fingerprints all up on the 2004 permutation of the team. The first Championship, in particular, did a lot to release Yours Truly from the bonds of single-team allegiance.

Second is that, in the meantime, I’ve read a great deal of the sabermetric canon. That includes books like Moneyball and BP’s Mind Game and Tom Tango’s The Book and then websites like the present one and BP and Hardball Times, and, retroactively, seminal works on baseball by Sabermetric Baby Daddy Bill James and John Thorn and Pete Palmer and Earnshaw Cook. Such reading changes the Baseballing Enthusiast — for the better, I’d argue vehemently. Where once randomness reigned supreme for Yours Truly, now randomness only reigns like 95%. Either way, I’m watching the game differently now, in a manner less dependent on the personnel decisions of a select few in Boston’s front office and more upon those players who profile well by the new metrics.

Greg Schimmel, keeper of the excellent Cape Cod League Blog, sums up this mindset in his website’s tagline: “Watching the players first and the games second.” While I’m sure that the Average Reader has ties of some sort to an MLB club — it’s very hard to become a fan otherwise — I’ll guess that you view yourself as watching the game similarly to Schimmel. Part of this is almost definitely the influence of fantasy baseball, which makes GMs of all of us, and which, in this author’s opinion, is basically the best thing ever to happen in society. The other part is the knowledge that baseball management is sometimes full of giant morons. Andrew Friedman & Co have done a lot to bring esteem back to that community, but so long as Dayton Moore has a job, a certain demographic of Baseballing Enthusiasts will always feel (and perhaps correctly so) that they could’ve done better (or at least not traded for Yuni Betancourt).

Despite these changes, I still find myself placing emotional wagers all the time; they’re just of a different variety. Where I once submitted to the fate of the Red Sox (read: terrifically irresponsible), I’m now more careful with my affections. In particular, I’ve switched the nature of my allegiances from a single team (Boston) to a variety of players in a variety of organizations. I allude to this at some level in my most recent dispatch from the front lines of baseball commentary, in which I attempt to classify the heroes of the sabermetric community.

The payoff from following this more obscure class of player is self-evident. Commenter “Tim” describes it as finding a “diamond in the rough.” It’s the sporting equivalent of bringing in a faded piece of cloth to the experts of Antiques Road Show. Sure, it might just be an old handkerchief, but maybe, just maybe, Robespierre used said handkerchief to wipe the blood of French noblemen from his brow.

Of the five types of player to which the Sabermetric Enthusiast forms his allegiances the one with the most potential for joy is the youngish minor leaguer or recent call-up. Youth, as the Greeks figured out a long time ago, is seductive. And even if they (i.e. the Greeks’) celebrated youth in ways that we Moderns consider both “morally deprave” and also “illegal,” they (i.e. still the Greeks) were at least on the right track.

I’ve made it a habit to choose a handful of young players at any one time and monitor their progress with something like a personal stake. This less resembles the gamble about which my friend Leo spoke in re that 2003 incarnation of the Sox and more like a low-risk investment in which one “diversifies his portfolio”*. One can pick a couple-few players who he finds appealing for whatever reason and then track their development through the various levels. If said prospects don’t make it, big whoop. In the event that one of them makes the Show, he (i.e. the fan in question) has earned the right to say “I told you so” — i.e. one of the very best feelings in the world.

*Whatever that means.

Marc Hulet’s coverage of the minors here at FanGraphs is an invaluable resource for the practice of prospect hunting. Minor League Splits owner-operator Jeff Sackmann does sweet work both at that website and THT (even if he’s made it his personal mission to report only on Felix Cespedes for the moment). Baseball America‘s reporting on prospects is also excellent, if slightly more traditional. First Inning’s good, and there are a whole bunch others, too, which I’m sure I’m omitting.

Below is a list of the players I’m currently tracking, my current “portfolio.” None of them are sure-fire stars, which I think is necessary ingredient to such a list. There has to be some doubt to the prospect’s chances, otherwise the return on the investment is sullied.

1. Alexander Torres, LHP, Los Angeles Angels (Double-A Arkansas)
I saw Torres pitch in early July for Rancho Cucamonga and was duly impressed by his stuff, which features, among other things, a two-seamer that helped him produce a GB% of 58.9% in 122 IP this season in the high Class A California League. Torres also posted a park- and luck- adjusted 9.12 K/9 there. Baseball America only ranked him 24th in their pre-season Prospect Handbook, so pulling for him smacks very little of front-running — a.k.a. the enemy of the True Statnerd. A recent promotion to Double-A Arkansas hasn’t been entirely kind to Torres, but he’s only 21 years old and sports a record of success.

2. Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati (Triple-A Louisville)
Heisey has steadily received more recognition as he’s continued to perform through the various levels. It was, in fact, a feature about him in Baseball America that first called my attention to him. Regardless of his recent press, however, the fact remains that Heisey was a 17th-round pick from a college most notable for its tradition of throwing newly engaged students into the nearby Yellow Breeches Creek. Heisey has a skill set faintly reminiscent of Curtis Granderson at the same age: a decent mix of speed, power, plate discipline, and Can-Do Spirit, but without any real hype to surround them. He posted a park- and luck-adjusted line of .315/.398/.538 in 314 PA at Double-A Carolina this season with as many walks as strikeouts. Despite only drawing 12 BB in PA at Triple-A Louisville, he’s hitting well there, too.

3. Any Young Rays Pitcher (and also Orioles ones, too)
I acknowledge this is cheating a bit, but allow me to explain. There’s a phenomenon I’ve noticed whereby, if I enter a bar, say, or crowded room of any description and notice one or two attractive ladies, I’m more likely to consider all the other ladies in said space more attractive. Because it feels good to do so, I’m gonna go ahead and call this the Transitional Property of Hotitude. A similar Property occurs among baseball organizations. Recognizing that a team has one or two fantasy-inducing prospects, the observer becomes enthused by other prospects who might go unnoticed were they playing, for example, somewhere in the Houston minor leagues. Tampa and Baltimore currently fit this category. Matthew Moore (born in 1989!!!) has posted an adjusted line of 13.00 K/9, 5.17 BB/9, 47.5% GB% at low Class A Bowling Green, while Jeremy Hellickson (born in 1987!!!) has put up a 10.43 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, and 36.6% GB% at Triple-A Durham. Meanwhile, fellow Bull Wade Davis and other farmhands David Newmann and Darin Downs bask in their reflected glow.

The same is true in Baltimore, where Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe, and Zach Britton appear poised to follow Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz to the Bigs.

4. Val Pascucci, Inert Masher, San Diego Padres (Triple-A Portland)
Yes, he’s 30 years old and, yes, he’s incredibly limited defensively, but Pascucci has the sweetest name in the business, a good minor league track record, and only 74 major league plate appearances. My man on the scene Danny Woytek sings his praises at Portland Sportsman.

5. Cole Gillespie, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (Triple-A Reno)
Gillespie has become considerably more interesting since his move to the Arizona organization in the trade that sent Felipe Lopez to Beer City. While Gillespie had cheap-ish young talent ahead of him in Milwaukee in the form of Ryan Braun and Corey Hart, Arizona’s outfield situation is considerably less certain. Furthermore, Gillespie has gone ahead and murdered the ball since his arrival in the Biggest Little City, posting an adjusted line of .313/.431/.515 in 123 PA, with 21 BB versus only 22 K. If he can end up playing a passable center field, at which position he’s played a little in Reno, he could be a valuable major leaguer.

Thanks to Minor League Splits for adjusted minor league stats.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

17 Comments
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mike
14 years ago

I hate to be a stickler for grammar, but that first paragraph was a disaster. Mistakes galore.

BIP
14 years ago
Reply to  mike

I only noticed one.

Shush
14 years ago
Reply to  BIP

At least four spotted here. The AP Stylebook does not consider “amidst” a word, too.

Teej
14 years ago
Reply to  BIP

The AP Stylebook doesn’t say “amidst” isn’t a word; it recommends that newspapers use “amid” instead. The stylebook should be the last place you look to find out if something is a word.

Furthermore, the AP is not the arbiter of English usage. It’s a style guide for those organizations that choose to follow it.

And at least as it stands now (not sure if it’s been edited), there are not four grammar errors in that first paragraph.

Sean
14 years ago
Reply to  mike

Zero errors in first paragraph.