The Near and Less-Near Future of Miguel Sano’s MLB Career

Miguel Sano is off to quite the start to his big-league career. The hulking 22-year-old is hitting .385/.500/.577 through his first eight games with Minnesota, and has reached base in all but one of those contests. His 205 wRC+ is the 11th highest in baseball in the month of July, and he’s provided a significant boost to the middle of the Twins lineup.

Sano’s major-league career may be only a week old, but he’s been in the limelight for years now. He was seen as a generational talent when the Twins signed him as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican back in 2009. And the controversy surrounding his signing inspired Peletero — one of baseball’s best and most well-known documentaries.

Once his signing was finally completed and documented, Sano proceeded to punish minor-league pitching. Between 2010 and 2013, he mashed .279/.372/.567 as an infielder, with most of his reps coming at third base. Sano had some trouble making contact, as evidenced by his 26% strikeout rate, but he more than made up for it with his mammoth power. On the strength of his 80-grade raw power, his isolated-power figures (ISOs) were consistently near or above .300, which frankly doesn’t happen all that often. All in all, Sano was always among the very best hitters in his league, despite being much younger than his competition.

Having reached Double-A just a month after his 20th birthday, Sano was clearly on the fast-track to the majors. But his ascent was derailed when he tore a ligament in his elbow the following winter. The injury necessitated Tommy John surgery, which forced him to sit out the entire 2014 season — his age-21 campaign.

After taking a year off, Sano came to camp fully healthy this year. He returned to the Double-A level, where he had spent the second half of the 2013 season, and showed no signs of rust upon his return. When he finally got the call to Minnesota, he was hitting .274/.374/.544. Encouragingly, he cut his strikeout rate to 24% — the lowest mark of his pro career.

Sano’s powerful 2015 numbers yield him a KATOH projection of 6.9 WAR through age-28. This forecast would have put him 33rd overall heading into the year. A list of comps should help to put some faces on Sano’s future. Using league-adjusted, regressed stats, along with age, I calculated the Mahalanobis Distance between Sano’s performance and every Double-A season since 1990 in which a batter recorded at least 400 plate appearances. Below, you’ll find a list of historical players whose performances were nearest and dearest to Sano’s, ranked from most to least similar.

Mah	Player	PA thru 28	WAR thru 28
0.56	Ryan Ludwick	704	3.1
0.79	Dave Silvestri	372	0.0
1.06	Mike Olt*	314	0.0
1.13	Ozzie Timmons	399	0.1
1.14	Mike Restovich	297	0.0
1.16	Eric Hinske	2,647	8.5
1.25	Jayson Werth	1,129	7.2
1.27	Pete LaForest	121	0.0
1.54	Charles Johnson	2,779	19.9
1.65	George Arias	513	0.0
1.66	Matt Craig	0.0	0.0
1.70	Koby Clemens*	0.0	0.0
1.71	Carlos Pena	1,925	3.3
1.74	Shane Andrews	1,909	2.8
1.79	Ben Petrick	764	0.4
1.86	Craig Monroe	1,646	4.2
1.88	Matt Davidson*	87	0.2
1.91	Bobby Estalella	1,025	2.4
1.91	Guillermo Quiroz	280	0.0
1.93	Andy Marte	924	0.0

*Batters who have yet to play their age-28 season.

And here’s a list containing only players who made the majority of their Double-A starts at third base, which is Sano’s primary position.

Mah	Name	PA thru 28	WAR thru 28
1.06	Mike Olt*	314	0.0
1.16	Eric Hinske	2,647	8.5
1.65	George Arias	513	0.0
1.66	Matt Craig	0.0	0.0
1.74	Shane Andrews	1,909	2.8
1.88	Matt Davidson*	87	0.2
1.93	Andy Marte	924	0.0
2.17	Morgan Ensberg	1,057	5.3
2.25	Scott Moore	430	0.0
2.57	Corey Koskie	1,631	10.7

*Batters who have yet to play their age-28 season.

Although Sano’s KATOH projection is encouraging, his Mahalanobis comps aren’t all rainbows and sunshine. In fact, there are some scary names in there, especially on the third-base-only list. Mike Olt? Shane Andrews? Matt Davidson? Andy Marte? Holy failed prospects, Batman!

Guys like Olt and Marte are walking examples of the risks associated someone like Sano. There’s serious bust potential when it comes to low-contact, high-power hitters, especially when their defense limits them to an infield corner. But these examples shouldn’t alarm you too much. Sano’s done nothing but rake in the minors, and we shouldn’t conclude that he’ll flame out based on the trajectories of just a few players. Like Olt and Marte once did, Sano has significant offensive potential, and this is reflected in his KATOH forecast.

As good as Sano’s hit so far, and as lofty as his upside is, there’s reason to be skeptical of whether the 22-year-old will continue to succeed. For one, he skipped over the Triple-A level entirely, leaving him largely untested against MLB-quality pitching. Furthermore, some of my recent research suggests that low-contact hitters — of which Sano is a certain example — have tougher-than-average transitions to the big leagues. Sano’s Z-Contact% was 12th lowest among the 94 qualified Double-A batters when Minor League Central stopped updating last month. It remains to be seen how he’ll adjust when opposing pitchers start to find and exploit the holes in his swing.

Sano has played almost exclusively at DH since his call-up, but figures to see some time at third base in the season’s second half. However, his defense at the hot corner leaves something to be desired. At 6-foot-4 and 260 pounds, Sano doesn’t have much by way of range, and he made more than his share of errant throws in the minors. Still, Baseball Prospectus’ FRAA has him as a +4 defender over his 133 Double-A games. At the very least, this suggests he could play a passable third base for the time being.

Against all odds, the Twins have managed to stay in the thick of a playoff hunt. Their 46-40 record is the fifth best in the American League, and puts them 1.5 games ahead of the Tigers for a wildcard spot. Our playoff odds, which account for the team’s mediocre roster, give the Twins just a one-in-five chance of cracking the playoffs this year. The Twins may not have a very good team, but there’s no denying that they have the record of a good team.

It’s anyone’s guess as to just how much Sano will help the Twins’ cause from here on out. But after just a little over a week, he’s already moved the needle with his 205 wRC+. He’s connected on an uncharacteristically high 81% of swings on pitches in the strike zone, which has allowed him to run a manageable 28% strikeout rate. As long as he continues to make a decent amount of contact, he should continue to be a force in Minnesota’s lineup. And even if he struggles, he should at least hit an impressive homer or two.