The Red Sox Have Risen From the Dead To Join the Wild Card Race

Four weeks ago, the 2026 Red Sox appeared to be dead and buried. At 32-46, the team not only owned the AL’s worst record, but also the franchise’s worst record through 78 games since 1966 (28-50). Ace Garrett Crochet hadn’t pitched since April 25 due to shoulder problems; that appearance proved to be manager Alex Cora’s final game at the helm, as he and five coaches were fired after a 10-17 start. Roman Anthony had been out since May 4 due to multiple hand injuries as well. Things looked bleak, but since then, the Red Sox have gone on a major league-best 20-3 run that has carried them into the third AL Wild Card spot. On Wednesday, in the opener of a doubleheader against the Orioles at Fenway Park, they won their 15th consecutive game, tying a franchise record set in 1946, though their streak came to an end when they lost the nightcap.

Remarkably, the Red Sox have pulled off this streak despite missing not only Crochet and Anthony, but also Trevor Story and Ranger Suarez; that’s four of their seven highest-paid players in terms of average annual value, and four of their top nine in terms of preseason projected WAR. Among those helping to pick up the slack have been several rookies and a couple of unheralded utilitymen, with interim manager Chad Tracy leading the way. It’s been an unlikely run even for a team projected to have a 60.8% chance of making the playoffs at the outset of the season.

On that subject, here’s a look at Boston’s change in Playoff Odds since the start of its 20-3 stretch:

The turnaround began on June 25, when the Yankees came to Boston for a four-game series with the AL’s best record (48-31). The Red Sox ripped off a rousing four-game sweep of their division rivals, capped by Jarren Duran’s 10th-inning walk-off single on June 28. After dropping two out of three to the Nationals at Fenway Park, the Red Sox embarked upon the nine-game road trip that kicked off their winning streak, taking three apiece from the Angels, White Sox, and Mets before the All-Star break. They began the second half at home with a four-game sweep of the AL East-leading Rays (56-38 at the start of the series), then edged the Orioles 6-5 on Tuesday night thanks to Caleb Durbin’s eighth-inning homer off Tyler Wells.

In Wednesday’s opener, the Red Sox pounced upon Orioles starter Dean Kremer, with four singles and a two-run triple by Duran plating four first-inning runs. Rookie Jake Bennett scattered nine hits and three runs over 5 2/3 innings while striking out four and shaking off a 102-mph Taylor Ward line drive off his stomach; three relievers also put up zeroes en route to a 6-3 win.

In the nightcap, it was the Orioles’ turn to score four first-inning runs, which they did against Eduardo Rivera, another rookie. He retired just two hitters before giving way to Brayan Bello, who pitched his way out of the rotation earlier this season but has turned in some impressive bulk relief performances interspersed with a couple of shellackings as a starter. This time, he kept Boston in the game with 5 1/3 scoreless innings, but the early deficit proved too much for the Red Sox to surmount. Still, the streak put these Sox into the same sentence as their 1946 AL pennant winners, who featured Hall of Famers Ted Williams (the AL MVP) and Bobby Doerr, as well as Boston legends Dom DiMaggio and Johnny Pesky, all of whom had just returned from military service.

As with many a stretch of this caliber, Boston’s run owes to major improvements on both sides of the ball. Through June 24, the Red Sox were scoring just 3.94 runs per game, last in the AL; they’ve improved that to 5.17 per game since, the league’s second-best rate. Through June 24, they were holding opponents to just 4.03 runs per game, third fewest in the AL, but since then, they’ve trimmed that to 2.91 runs per game, the best in the league by more than a third of a run.

Even with Crochet limited to six starts this season, the Red Sox have cobbled together a rotation that ranks fourth in the AL in WAR (9.2) and FIP (3.84), and sixth in ERA (3.95). During this run, they lost both Connelly Early and Suarez to injuries, with the former sidelined since July 1 due to elbow inflammation and the latter out retroactive to July 6 with a groin strain. With Rivera and Patrick Sandoval filling in for those two, the starters have combined for a 3.05 ERA and a 3.22 FIP during this run, with Bennett and Sonny Gray leading the way. Bennett, a 25-year-old, 6-foot-6 lefty acquired from the Nationals for Luis Perales in December, has put up a 1.65 ERA and a 3.53 FIP in 32 2/3 innings over his last five starts. A 2022 second-round pick out of Oklahoma and a 45-FV prospect, Bennett was initially called up from Triple-A Worcester on May 1 to fill Crochet’s spot in the rotation for two turns before getting optioned. He returned on June 10 and has been excellent since then, putting up a 2.20 ERA and a 2.78 FIP in 49 innings spread across eight starts. Despite striking out just 18.3% of hitters with his sinker-heavy approach this season, he’s posted a 2.58 ERA and a 3.12 FIP in 59 1/3 innings overall while holding hitters to a .308 slugging percentage.

The 36-year-old Gray, whom the Red Sox acquired from the Cardinals for a three-player package last November, has put up a 1.07 ERA and a 3.18 FIP in 25 1/3 innings over this stretch, which for him began with 7 1/3 innings of no-hit work against the Yankees on June 28; a single by Amed Rosario ended his bid. Gray has allowed one run or fewer in 10 out of 13 starts since returning from a trip to the IL for a right hamstring strain, and with renewed emphasis on his sinker and cutter, he currently ranks second in the AL in ERA (2.48) and 13th in FIP (3.65) in 101 2/3 innings. His sinker has been especially effective, holding batters to a .188 batting average and a .260 slugging percentage. The pitch ranks ninth among all sinkers in Stacast’s value at nine runs above average.

Another rookie lefty, 23-year-old Payton Tolle, has been the rotation’s other constant through this stretch, putting up a 3.91 ERA and a 3.03 FIP over his last five starts, with a 3.31 ERA and a 3.24 FIP in 89 2/3 innings overall. His 26.2% strikeout rate is the highest of any Boston starter besides Crochet, while his 2.3 WAR is third among all rookie pitchers behind the Guardians’ Parker Messick and the Mets’ Nolan McLean.

As of Tuesday, Early was reportedly throwing off flat ground to 120 feet, so he should begin ramping up to mound work soon; overall, he’s pitched to a 3.44 ERA and a 4.61 FIP in 91 2/3 innings. Suarez, who has a 3.15 ERA and a 2.61 FIP in 91 1/3 innings, was initially scheduled to return from the IL and start Tuesday’s game against the Orioles before it was postponed. Between dealing with some soreness and being “a bit under the weather,” he was bypassed for Wednesday night’s start in favor of Rivera, yet another 23-year-old rookie lefty, a 40-FV prospect who has now made three starts for the team this month, all of less than four innings.

Crochet has been focusing on strengthening his shoulder since being diagnosed with a minor lat strain after a one-inning simulated game appearance on May 26. He still has no timeline for a return to throwing. “To be honest, I don’t really have an idea,” he said when asked what the training staff needed to see before clearing him to throw. “I think just with the setbacks that I had in the past, we’ve been rightfully cautious. For me, I’m just kind of doing what I’m asked.”

The 27-year-old lefty is hoping that the training staff can outline a plan that would get him back in time for the postseason, should the Red Sox qualify. He’ll need a spring training-like six-week buildup to do that. Given the likelihood that he’ll reach 120 consecutive days on the IL on August 23, his $30 million player option for 2031 will be be converted into a $15 million team option for ’32.

During this 23-game stretch, the bullpen has been stellar, combining for a 2.27 ERA and a 3.33 FIP, with a low home run rate (0.59 per nine) offsetting a modest strikeout rate (21.6%). Closer Aroldis Chapman has converted nine out of 10 save chances during that run and 23 of 25 overall. While his 29.0% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate both represent steps back from his 2025 marks (37.3% and 6.6%, respectively), both his 1.93 ERA and 2.63 FIP indicate he’s still pretty dominant even at age 38. Top setup man Garrett Whitlock hasn’t allowed a run since June 23, a span of 12 1/3 innings, and overall, he has a 1.95 ERA and a 2.54 FIP. High-leverage hurlers Justin Slaten and Tyron Guerrero have been very good lately, too.

As for the offense, the Red Sox have gone on this tear entirely without Anthony, Story, and utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa; Marcelo Mayer, who last played on June 25, joined that trio on the IL the next day. As detailed in my recent Replacement-Level Killers series — where the Red Sox were represented at catcher, second base, shortstop, and designated hitter — Kiner-Falefa and Mayer have both been sidelined by stress reactions in their left ulnas, leaving second base in the hands of Anthony Seigler, a 27-year-old switch-hitter acquired from the Brewers along with Durbin and Andruw Monasterio in February. The 29-year-old Monasterio has been sharing shortstop duties with 24-year-old rookie Tsung-Che Cheng. Story struggled mightily before undergoing surgery to repair a sports hernia in late May, while Anthony has been out since early May due to a torn ligament in his right ring finger and a torn tendon in his right wrist. Mayer, Kiner-Falefa, and Story should be back at various points in August; as he still isn’t swinging a bat, Anthony’s timeline is less clear.

With a full season of Anthony, plus 2025 Gold Glove winners Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, as well as Duran and Masataka Yoshida, the Red Sox were expected to use their surplus of quality outfielders to cover a good chunk of the DH duties. Anthony’s absence, Duran’s unfathomably deep slump (.190/.251/.342, 58 wRC+ overall), and other injuries have cut into the team’s production there, though at least Yoshida has emerged as a useful DH against righties. He’s wielded one of Boston’s most potent bats during this run, along with Willson Contreras, Durbin, and Monasterio:

Contreras has been the team’s best hitter overall by far. His 159 wRC+ (.293/.389/.559) is 47 points higher than any other Red Sox player, and ranks third in the league behind only Yordan Alvarez and Ben Rice. He and Abreu are the only two hitters with a 100 wRC+ of at least 100 both through June 24 and since then. As you can see from the table, even during this run, the Sox haven’t lacked for hitters who have cooled off.

Until recently, the Red Sox appeared likely to be sellers — or at least not buyers — ahead of the August 3 trade deadline, with Chapman’s mutual option, Gray’s player option, and the money left on the contracts of Contreras and Duran complicating potential deals. “Each of Boston’s potential trade chips comes with an asterisk of one type or another,” wrote MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand about that quartet in mid-June, with an unidentified AL executive telling him, “Gray’s market will be limited by his salary, Contreras is an acquired taste, Duran is having a down season, and Chapman will be a rental reliever. The potential returns for that group will be tempered.” Even as Boston caught fire, it remained uncertain what its deadline approach would be. Would an ownership group that has notoriously tightened its belt in recent years view the surge as nothing more than just that, with regression to follow, and decide to shed salary? Owner John Henry, who hasn’t taken questions from Red Sox reporters since 2020, definitely wasn’t going to provide any clarity.

But the winning continued coming out of the All-Star break, and now, barring another slide over the next 10 days, the Red Sox are presumed to be in the market for a right-handed bat, with a catcher, a middle infielder, and/or a DH the obvious areas of need. A late-inning arm and an extra starter are probably on their shopping list as well, as they are for virtually every contender; in a rotation that currently has three members of its projected starting five on the IL, and rookies who are heading into uncharted territory, workload-wise, this team can’t have too much pitching. Still, three weeks ago, few people thought the Red Sox would be in a position to desire such luxury items in early August.