The Righty-Heavy Rotations of the AL Central

With Opening Day on the horizon, three teams are planning to enter the season with exclusively right-handed rotations: the Guardians, the Twins, and the White Sox. As I’m sure I don’t have to tell you, that’s not the only thing these clubs have in common; they’re also the three contenders for the AL Central crown. An all-righty rotation isn’t unheard of, but it is uncommon, and it’s particularly unusual to see three within the same division. Here’s how they each stack up:

Around this time last season, there were likewise three teams planning to deploy all-righty rotations: the Guardians, the Twins, and the Mets. The Mets, however, had lefty in David Peterson at Triple-A, and it was only a matter of time before they needed him. Indeed, he was called up two days into the season and made his first start a week later. As for the Guardians and Twins, they also had lefties waiting in the wings. Konnor Pilkington was the first man called up when Cleveland needed a sixth starter; Devin Smeltzer wasn’t the first call-up for Minnesota, but he was soon to follow.

This year, the White Sox have joined the all-righty ranks. In fact, they haven’t had a left-handed starter since releasing Dallas Keuchel last May. Meanwhile, the Guardians and Twins have more right-handed depth than last season. Pilkington is still around for Cleveland, but he had a poor showing this spring, and several right-handed prospects are moving their way up the depth chart. As for Minnesota, Smeltzer elected free agency in October, and every new starter the team acquired this offseason has been a righty.

All in all, this is what the AL Central contenders are looking at in terms of rotation depth:

This table includes every pitcher (outside the top five) projected to get a start according to our Depth Charts. I’ve also included top prospects who could reasonably contribute in 2023 and any other starters on the 40-man roster. This isn’t an exhaustive list of every guy who could start a game — there will always be surprises — but it’s a good summary of the depth at each team’s disposal.

Only Cleveland has much when it comes to left-handed depth. Minnesota’s lone southpaw starter on the 40-man is Brent Headrick, who’s 25 years old and hasn’t pitched above Double-A, where he had mixed results last season. He’s behind several names on the depth chart, so barring an unexpected breakout, he’s not in line for a big league call-up. The White Sox have even fewer left-handed options. Tanner Banks has MLB experience, but exclusively as a reliever. He started just two games at Triple-A last season and made all 35 of his big league appearances out of the bullpen. Indeed, he last was a primary starting pitcher in 2019.

The Guardians are more likely to call up a lefty starter than their competitors, but even so, it’s no sure thing. Right-handers Xzavion Curry and Hunter Gaddis stuck around in big league camp the longest, so one of them has the best chance to nab an early-season spot start. Southpaw Logan Allen could earn a call-up midseason, but he’s not quite ready, and it’s possible another top prospect like Daniel Espino or Tanner Bibee will surpass him on the depth chart in the next couple of months. Thus, there is a distinct possibility the Twins and White Sox go the entire season without using a left-handed starter, and it’s not out of the question for the Guardians either.

How often does that happen? It’s not terribly unusual for a single team to steer clear of southpaw starters in any given year; it’s happened seven times in the last ten full seasons and ten times in the last twenty. But the only season in the previous two decades when multiple teams eschewed left-handed starters was 2020, when neither Philadelphia nor Cleveland started a southpaw. Here are those ten teams that started right-handers for all 162:

Almost all of these clubs fall into one of two camps. Several were rebuilding and just needed innings, regardless of who threw them; the 2002 Orioles and 2016 Braves fit into that category. Most of the others had excellent rotations — rotations so good there was no need to worry about handedness. The 2018 Guardians are a perfect example. The only exception seems to be the 2012 Reds: their rotation wasn’t outstanding but was supported by a superb pitch framer behind the plate (Ryan Hanigan), a great defense overall (63 DRS), and a dominant, lefty-heavy bullpen (2.65 ERA, 5.8 WAR).

The Guardians, Twins, and White Sox do not fall into either of the first two categories. They’re all contending for a division title; in theory, they want to win. But their starting rotations all rank in the middle of the pack on our Depth Charts.

The Guardians, at least, fit the mold of the 2012 Reds. Mike Zunino has a reputation as a good pitch framer, and their defense has ranked among the best in baseball for the past several years. They also have an excellent bullpen, featuring talented southpaw Sam Hentges and intriguing left-handed prospect Tim Herrin. Moreover, of Cleveland’s five primary starters, only Zach Plesac has poor career splits against left-handed batters. Aaron Civale actually has impressive reverse platoon splits, thanks to his reliable cutter and a nasty curve. Most importantly, Shane Bieber is an ace regardless of how his opponent swings the bat:

Minnesota’s rotation might have a little more trouble keeping left-handed batters at bay. The Twins have a skillful backstop of their own in Christian Vázquez, and they have a strong defense with the likes of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. But their defense isn’t as strong as Cleveland’s on the right side of the infield, where lefties tend to hit the ball. Andrés Giménez is a Gold Glove second baseman; Jorge Polanco has racked up -10 OAA in two full seasons at second base.

The Twins’ bullpen should be fine, but it isn’t a strength outside of Jhoan Duran, and even he isn’t nearly as dominant against left-handed batters. Minnesota does have a couple of talented lefties in the ‘pen, but each has his question marks; Caleb Thielbar is already 36 years old, and Jovani Moran has yet to prove himself over a full season. As for the rotation’s platoon splits? It’s a mixed bag. Only Sonny Gray has good career numbers against lefties, although Tyler Mahle has improved his splits over the last two years. (Amusingly enough, he’s done so by turning his splitter into his secondary pitch against left-handers.) Kenta Maeda’s poor track record against opposite-handed hitters is especially worrisome:

It’s another mixed bag in Chicago. Yasmani Grandal is a strength behind the dish, but the rest of the defense is uninspiring. Elvis Andrus could be an asset at second, but he’ll be learning the ropes on the fly; he hasn’t played the position professionally outside of a two-inning, Rookie-level stint in 2005. And while Chicago’s bullpen looks good, it won’t be at full strength until Liam Hendriks returns. Kendall Graveman, the de facto closer in his place, hasn’t been great against left-handers, but the Sox have plenty of lefty depth in the ‘pen. That includes excellent sinkerballer Aaron Bummer, veteran Jake Diekman, and last year’s breakout reliever Banks. Those bullpen arms will play a critical role, because the starting five have not had much luck against lefties. Only no. 5 starter Michael Kopech has reverse platoon splits, and Dylan Cease and Lance Lynn — the two most important arms in the rotation — aren’t nearly as dominant without the platoon advantage:

To make matters worse for the White Sox, their offense thrived against left-handed pitching last year. Their 119 wRC+ against southpaws was the fourth-highest in baseball; their 93 wRC+ against righties was the eighth-worst. They weren’t quite as powerful against lefties in the second half, when Tim Anderson and Luis Robert Jr. went on the IL, but those two are back to hit atop the lineup. Replacing the righty AJ Pollock with the lefty Andrew Benintendi should help to balance out the offense, but he is the only left-handed mainstay in the batting order; Chicago’s lineup is built to face lefties. That’s going to be a problem in the 28 games this team plays against Cleveland and Minnesota:

The Guardians, meanwhile, were terrible against left-handed pitching last season, posting a 104 wRC+ against righties and an 84 wRC+ against southpaws. The addition of switch-hitting Josh Bell will help to even out those splits, but Cleveland is still lucky that its division rivals are so right-handed. Terry Francona can trot out a lineup featuring as many as seven lefties or switch-hitters when he wants to, and his left-handed options will only improve once top prospect Bo Naylor is promoted:

The Twins were fine against lefties last season (101 wRC+) but significantly better against righties (109 wRC+). The now departed Luis Arraez and Gio Urshela contributed to those splits, but Minnesota is still set up to beat right-handers. The addition of Joey Gallo, the healthy returns of Max Kepler and Alex Kirilloff, and the breakout of Trevor Larnach give this lineup four lefties who can pack a punch:

The AL Central race is going to be close this season. Fewer than three wins separate the White Sox, Twins, and Guardians in our projected standings. Thus, the division winner will be decided in large part by the 42 games these three clubs play against one another. That means the White Sox could be in real trouble if their lineup can’t perform against the righty-heavy rotations of their rivals. The Guardians, meanwhile, have a leg up with a lefty-heavy lineup to grind away at opposing starting pitchers.

Handedness is only a small part of the equation, but in such a tight race, every advantage (or disadvantage) counts. The righty-heavy rotations of the AL Central are an amusing quirk, but when all is said and done, they could also play a meaningful role in deciding the division.