The Strengths and Weaknesses of Every Playoff Team

So that was exciting, and then the exact opposite of exciting, but after two days of play-in games, we know who the Wild Card entries are to the postseason this year. The Royals and Giants join the six division winners in chasing the World Series title, and so before the games begin tonight, let’s take a look at what each remaining contender did well this year, as well as something they might have had problems with.

Washington Nationals

Strengths:

The Nationals rotation led the majors in both ERA and FIP, while ranking third in xFIP. The rotation is so deep that Tanner Roark — and his 2.57 ERA since the start of last year, which ranks behind only Kershaw, Fernandez, Cueto, and Hernandez — is going to spend the postseason pitching out of the bullpen. No team in baseball can match the Nationals depth of healthy starters, and with Stephen Strasburg leading the destruction of their opponents in September, there are few concerns about these guys wearing down over the course of the year.

They are nearly as deep on the position player side of things, though Ryan Zimmerman’s hamstring issue might lessen that in the first round, where his availability is a bit of a question mark. Even with Zimmerman, though, they have quality players at every position on the field, and if they make the World Series, Zimmerman provides a natural DH option, which is a luxury most NL teams simply do not have.

Weaknesses:

Their bullpen isn’t bad, but compared to their rotation, it’s the clear weak link. The fall of Rafael Soriano might end with him watching the playoffs from home, and so Drew Storen has had to be moved from the seventh inning to the ninth inning, taking away some of the late-inning depth the team could have otherwise had. It will be interesting to see how the team uses Roark, who could potentially deepen this group if he’s not held back as solely a long reliever.

Beyond that, we have to start to nitpick. Asdrubal Cabrera tends to have a lot of nagging injuries that force him out of games, so that could be an issue, especially if it pushes Danny Espinosa into regular playing time against a right-hander. But that’s about as lame a weakness as you’re going to find. This team is just really well constructed.

St. Louis Cardinals

Strengths:

Remember when we said that the Cardinals probably wouldn’t be able to sustain 2013’s clutchiness? Yeah, well, they did, outperforming their BaseRuns expectation by seven wins. By the raw performance data, the Cardinals are kind of a mediocre team, as their expected R/G of 3.76 is just barely ahead of their expected RA/G of 3.68, and in reality, the Cardinals didn’t beat those numbers by much. They distributed their runs into the important situations, though, going 32-23 in one run games, which is one of the primary reasons they won the NL Central.

Weaknesses:

It would be easy to cite the paragraph above as a weakness as well, given the variability of this kind of data, and we should remmeber just how poorly the Cardinals regular season hitting with runners in scoring position carried over to the postseason last year. But beyond just normal regression, the team has some real question marks. Allen Craig going bust and Oscar Taveras‘ terrible big league performance make right field a question mark, especially since playing Peter Bourjos in center field would force Jon Jay’s terrible arm to right field.

On the pitching side, Shelby Miller‘s second-half turnaround eased some of the fears he helped raise in the first half, but he still doesn’t look like the same guy he was in the regular season a year ago, and Michael Wacha’s health issues have dampened the team’s rotation depth. For a rotation that looked very good quite deep at times earlier in the year, the back-end starters are now a legitimate question mark.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Strengths:

They have some guy named Clayton Kershaw. Perhaps you’ve heard of him. Zack Greinke doesn’t suck either.

They also can really hit. Their non-pitcher’s 116 wRC+ tied for the best mark in the majors, and they have surprisingly strong bench depth, with guys like Justin Turner, Scott Van Slyke, and the most expensive fourth outfielder in baseball in Andre Ethier. They can sustain an injury to a position player probably better than any other team in baseball.

Weaknesses:

Every reliever not named Kenley Jansen. Kenley Jansen was worth +2.0 WAR this year; all other Dodgers relievers combined to be worth -1.4 WAR. J.P. Howell is a solid lefty and Brandon League can get you a ground ball, but Jansen is probably going to have to work multiple innings if the Dodgers don’t want to be holding their breath as soon as their starters leave the game. You really don’t want to be counting on Brian Wilson in the postseason if you don’t have to, but the Dodgers just might have to.

San Francisco Giants

Strengths:

Somewhat like the Pirates, it seems like the Giants are a pitching-and-defense, but they’re really being carried by a surprisingly good offense; their non-pitcher 107 wRC+ ranked 5th in the majors. Among the 10 players they gave more than 200 plate appearances to, only Brandon Hicks posted a wRC+ below 100, and he isn’t even on the the roster anymore. Guys like Joe Panik and Gregor Blanco probably aren’t as good as their 2014 lines, but quality performances from solid role players is one of the primary reasons the Giants won the Wild Card. Also, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, and Pablo Sandoval are all quite good, which certainly helps.

Weaknesses:

By FIP-based WAR, the Giants rotation ranked 28th in baseball this year. By RA9-WAR, the Giants rotation ranked 26th in baseball this year. We might be used to this team being carried by strong starting pitching, but it gets pretty thin after Madison Bumgarner. A resurgent Jake Peavy will help a bit, but this rotation just doesn’t stack up against what the other playoff teams can put on the mound each night.

The bullpen could also be an issue, although their regular season runs allowed total might not make that obvious. Santiago Casilla had a great year by ERA, but his perhipherals suggest he’s still just Santiago Casilla. The team’s bullpen is better than their rotation, but the downturn of Sergio Romo makes this group less imposing than they’ve been previously.

Baltimore Orioles

Strengths:

They hit a lot of dingers. Their bullpen is excellent. They play very good defense. Buck Showalter seems to be a quality manager, as best as we can judge things like that.

Weaknesses:

Everywhere you look, there are performances that don’t line up with a player’s career track record. Nelson Cruz has never hit this well before. Steve Pearce has really never hit this well before. Their rotation’s ERA, as a whole, is half a run better than their FIP, and their defense isn’t so good as to create that kind of gap. Maybe Dan Duquette is a master at finding undervalued talent, or maybe Buck Sholwater is the best in baseball at coaxing great performances out of not-great players. Or maybe this isn’t going to last forever.

Detroit Tigers

Strengths:

If there’s a team that can go toe-to-toe with the Nationals in starting piching, it’s the Tigers, especially if Justin Verlander finds some of his prior performance level rather than what he did in 2014. This team can also mash, with Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and J.D. Martinez providing a middle of the order that is probably scarier than what any other team left in baseball can run up there. If you believe that playoff baseball is mostly good hitting and starting pitching, then the Tigers are your kind of team.

Weaknesses:

As seems to be the case every October, the Tigers bullpen is a huge problem and their defense sucks. This was supposed to be the year that was different, with the team trading power for speed and signing Joe Nathan to make the ninth inning less of a roller coaster, but the defense remains awful and Nathan has been a disaster. With Joakim Soria around and Anibal Sanchez relegated to bullpen work for the playoffs, they have the makings of a decent 8th/9th combination, but as long as Brad Ausmus remains convinced that Joba Chamberlain/Joe Nathan is the way to go, holding leads is going to be a problem for Detroit.

Anaheim Angels

Strengths:

This is the best group of position players in the game. They have the Tigers offensive capabilities, just with guys who can also run and play the field. Mike Trout is amazing, obviously, but underrated role players like Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, and Kole Calhoun are big parts of the team’s success as well. When Albert Pujols is your fifth best position player, you’ve got a pretty good group.

Weaknesses:

The starting rotation is at the stop right before you get to shambles. Jared Weaver and Pray for Rain doesn’t have the same ring to it, but without Garrett Richards or Tyler Skaggs, this group is extremely thin, especially given the recent issues from C.J. Wilson and Matt Shoemaker. No team in baseball is going to need to rely on its relievers to carry them in October more than the Angels.

Kansas City Royals

Strengths:

An apparently endless supply of magical pixie dust. By BaseRuns, this was a .500 team, but they clutched their way into 89 wins and a miraculous comeback against the A’s on Tuesday night. That isn’t to downplay the things the team does do very well, as their defense is the best in baseball, they are very good at baserunning, and they do have three amazing relief pitchers when Ned Yost is willing to use them. There are things this team excels at, and they managed to leverage those things into a playoff berth. Plus, they play a brand of baseball can be very fun to watch, especially if the opposing team’s catcher is in the line-up for his offensive prowess.

Weaknesses:

They are great at the little things, which is good, because they kind of suck at the big things. The offense is downright bad. Jason Vargas is their Game 1 starter tonight, and Jeremy Guthrie is occupying a spot in their playoff rotation. While he actually is a very good starter, their ace has been more Low Yields Shields than Big Game James in his postseason career. Defense and relief pitching can only carry you so far; at some point, the Royals will have to actually score runs, and they won’t have 15 pinch-runners for the rest of the playoffs. Some of their young hitters are going to have to hit, or this playoff run won’t go very far.

Overall, I’d rank the playoff teams roughly in this order: Nationals, Dodgers, Tigers, Angels, Cardinals, Orioles, Giants, Royals. But given that it’s baseball in October, that means you should probably start prepping for a San Francisco-Kansas City World Series.