The Twins Add Top Prospect Walker Jenkins to the Roster

Nick Wosika-Imagn Images

With Byron Buxton out with a hip impingement and no timetable for his return, the Twins were short one outfielder. Luckily for Minnesota, it just so happens that the team’s best prospect, Walker Jenkins, is a center fielder, and is looking a lot like a hitter who didn’t have much more to learn from facing Triple-A pitchers. The fifth pick in the 2023 draft, Jenkins was hitting .308/.407/.532 for a 142 wRC+ in 69 games for the St. Paul Saints when he got the call on Thursday. He started in center for all three games of the team’s weekend series against the White Sox.

Still just 21, Jenkins might have reached the majors even quicker than he actually did if not for sharing Buxton’s proclivity for landing on the injured list. Hamstring and quad injuries in 2024 held him to 82 games, while an ankle injury cost him two months of the 2025 season. An injured shoulder, earned by a collision with the Summit Beer advertisement on the right-center field wall, put him on the shelf for most of May. Since returning to the Saints in late June, Jenkins has been on a tear, hitting .335/.414/.603, topped off with an August line of .405/.484/.772 with eight of his 12 homers on the year.

While one could argue that the Twins should have called up Jenkins a month earlier — Minnesota right fielders have combined for 0.0 WAR — this is one case where I think the conservatism was warranted. With a long injury history, it made sense for Jenkins to get more time in the high minors, and his readiness only became glaringly obvious in recent weeks. His .252/.332/.394 translation through mid-July (by ZiPS) was certainly good enough to be playable, but his hot run has improved his Triple-A translation to a legitimately exciting .287/.364/.450 line on the season. Just to demonstrate what I mean by exciting, ZiPS was still on the fence with Jenkins when I published this season’s top 100 prospects list back in February; ZiPS ranked him outside the top 100, at 131st overall. But if ZiPS had known his 2026 numbers, it would have shot Jenkins all the way up to fourth on the list.

There’s more to like about Jenkins than just the raw line. Handling the high minors at a very young age means there’s a higher upside here. He’s also made great year-over-year plate discipline improvements, going from a 31% out-of-zone swing rate to 23% in the minors while also improving his contact rate, from 79% to 85%.

Called up this late in the season, Jenkins won’t get the 130 at bats or 45 days on the active roster that would cost him his Rookie of the Year eligibility next year. ZiPS at least puts Jenkins as one of the favorites for the 2027 award.

ZiPS Projection – Walker Jenkins
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2027 .279 .361 .454 366 55 102 22 3 12 54 42 78 12 125 2.7
2028 .276 .360 .453 384 59 106 23 3 13 58 45 79 12 124 2.8
2029 .276 .361 .455 402 62 111 24 3 14 62 48 81 12 125 3.0
2030 .276 .363 .458 421 67 116 25 2 16 66 51 83 12 126 3.2
2031 .274 .363 .458 441 71 121 26 2 17 70 55 85 12 126 3.3

Just to compare, here’s the same five-year projection for Jenkins, but this time entering the 2026 season.

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ZiPS Projection – Walker Jenkins (Preseason)
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2026 .243 .325 .383 342 45 83 18 3 8 44 37 83 9 96 0.8
2027 .246 .329 .391 358 48 88 19 3 9 48 39 85 10 99 1.0
2028 .250 .334 .402 376 52 94 21 3 10 53 42 87 10 103 1.2
2029 .253 .338 .411 384 54 97 22 3 11 55 44 87 10 107 1.4
2030 .256 .342 .419 399 58 102 23 3 12 58 46 88 9 110 1.6

Naturally, the cohort of players that ZiPS constructs as comps for Jenkins is also more impressive than it was back in March. Right now, the top 10 of his comp list has several legitimate stars (Andrew McCutchen, Dusty Baker, Mookie Betts, Amos Otis), a whole lot of very solid players (Adam Eaton, Andrew Benintendi, David DeJesus, Dave May), with only a single outright bust in Keith Mitchell. The last one of the top 10 comps is the one that scares me a little. Chris Snelling was a terrific prospect and played well enough in the majors that it would be wrong to call him a bust, but a litany of injuries resulted in his being done in Major League Baseball and the affiliated minors at age 27. (He did appear in two WBCs for Australia and played a season in the Australian Baseball League.) Now, it’s way too soon to be in full-blown panic about Jenkins and his health, but it’s something to have in the back of your mind. Injury history is, in fact, decently predictive of future injuries. I was a big fan of Eric Davis as a kid, and it still annoys me that he’s unlikely to ever be on a plaque in Cooperstown.

A reinforcement with the potential for upside is crucial to the Twins, who have seen their October hopes fade a lot over the last week after losing seven of eight games going into Sunday’s win against the White Sox. On August 20, our Playoff Odds had the Twins with a 39% chance of making the postseason. After yesterday’s win, that probability is down to 6%. You don’t need to be a mathemagician to know that a drop like that is… not good.

The Twins have gone 9-17 in August, and though that has more to do with the pitching (5.03 ERA this month) than the offense (102 wRC+), if you can’t upgrade the pitching, you can instead improve your team by scoring more runs. Jenkins won’t save the Twins on his own, but if they have a crazy underdog surge left in them for September, they have to put all their chips on the table. If I’m the Twins, I think I’m calling up Emmanuel Rodriguez also, and figuring out how to stuff him in the lineup, in order to take advantage of one of the distressingly rare stints when he’s healthy.

The Twins have nothing to lose by checking out how much Jenkins can help them right now. They won’t win the division or grab a wild card with mere respectability. Rather, they need upside, variance, and a healthy dose of gambling. If it doesn’t work out, writing Jenkins into the starting lineup the rest of the season at least gives him a head start on holding down a permanent spot in the 2027 lineup. If the Twins are going to do something ridiculous in September, they need guys who are capable of doing ridiculous things, and Jenkins is a ridiculous talent.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

22 Comments
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lzfreakMember since 2020
12 days ago

Please let a Twins star prospect stay on the field consistently for once!

A Salty ScientistMember since 2024
12 days ago
Reply to  lzfreak

Seriously. Going all the way back to Jason Kubel, they’ve had career altering freak injuries, seemingly out of nowhere congenital defects (Kirilloff), and then the extremely injury prone guys like Buxton and Lewis, with E Rod and Jenkins maybe following in their footsteps. In the 2000s, they had spell of concussions that basically ended careers (Mauer, Morneau, Koskie). Hopefully Jenkins breaks the spell.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
11 days ago
Reply to  lzfreak

Walker Jenkin’s injury history is so, so long. I know he’s not as touted a prospect but I would guess Kaelen Culpepper is the one who is going to give the Twins more value in their team control years.

Last edited 11 days ago by sadtrombone
sadtromboneMember since 2020
11 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I would also say that while the Twins seem to be less concerned about injury risk than other teams when looking at prospects that he was also a bit of a no-brainer selection. He was the 5th guy in a five-man class, and it would have been a real stretch to think that the Twins would go all the way down to pick Kevin McGonigle, or even to Bryce Eldridge / George Lombard.

warpath
11 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

It would be kinda nuts if Crews ends up being the worst of that five-man group. I thought he was going to be so good coming out of LSU… There’s still time for Crews to get it together though, and Clark and Jenkins are promising but haven’t proven much yet.

Last edited 11 days ago by warpath
A Salty ScientistMember since 2024
11 days ago
Reply to  warpath

Both Crews and Langford have less power than advertised, though Langford has still been good, with greatly improved defense helping. There have been some articles about literal bat tampering in college, which has made me much more cautious about college hitting prospects.

warpath
11 days ago

Yeah, Langford hasn’t hit quite as well as scouts thought, but he’s hit well enough and the defense+baserunning has been better than advertised, so he’s still been a plenty good player.

Langford also wasn’t in the minors for long at all, but it’s worth noting that he absolutely raked in the minors after being drafted, even in the high minors. Crews has just not really hit like that at any level above A-ball.

In fact, something I’ve been thinking about recently is that Crews hasn’t had a wRC+ of 110 or better at any stop, in any sample size, since being promoted from AA in 2024. The tools are certainly loud, but it hasn’t really resulted in great hitting production in either MLB or even in AAA.

A Salty ScientistMember since 2024
11 days ago
Reply to  warpath

Crews not even looking like a quad-A guy to this point is certainly a mystery.

crackbaldoMember since 2024
11 days ago

It is quite amazing that he was a toss up with Skenes at the top of the draft. I can only imagine the pitchforks if Cherrington had drafted Crews over Skenes. It would have been perfectly justifiable at the time. Now, not so much.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
10 days ago

I still think Langford could break out. He had had stretches where he looks awesome. But if he is “only” a 4 win player the Rangers will still have come out great.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
10 days ago
Reply to  warpath

I think Clark is going to be good. Maybe not elite, but he could be good enough to have a few 4-win seasons. And he’s still pretty young and tooled up.

I am fairly certain I would take Jenkins over Crews as well. Jenkins is going to be hurt a lot but he at least looks like he is a major league caliber hitter when he is healthy.

Crews’ main source of value at this point is that he seems to be at an average center fielder, potentially better than that. He needs to find a bad team that can give him some extended run to work through his issues. If not, maybe some bad team can pick up Crews and Victor Scott and coax them into a good platoon.

warpath
11 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Eric has both Culpepper and Jenkins as medium-risk prospects, and that seems about right to me. I think they have similar moderate amounts of risk, but for very different reasons.

Jenkins’ plate discipline and contact skills actually give him a high floor to me based solely on skills, but the injuries add variance. Culpepper is very athletic but the chase is concerning, particularly on breaking balls. It was notable in the minor leagues, but he is already getting a steady diet of breaking balls down and away, and he is chasing a ton of them. He can be a decent player even with this deficiency, but it might be his undoing if he can’t adjust at least a little.

Uncle SpikeMember since 2020
11 days ago

I’m surprised ZIPs sees Jenkins at essentially his offensive peak right now. There’s almost no change in his triple slash line over the next 5 years. Usually a 21 year old has a much weaker line now but gradually increases and is closer to peak at their 23-24 season. I’m guessing the modest playing time totals are due to the injuries? If he could stay on the field for a full season, ZIPs thinks he’s a 5+ WAR player right now.

A Salty ScientistMember since 2024
11 days ago
Reply to  Uncle Spike

It’s sort of fascinating. ZIPs thinks he’s an immediate and immutable 125 OPS+ guy worth ~5 wins over a full season, which seems overly optimistic to me considering the difficulty gap going from the minors to the majors, in addition to being weird on the no further development front.

mattMember since 2023
11 days ago

I like Jenkins but to me he’s not a top 10 prospect. Even being a strong sided platoon guy hurts a players value and he’s stretched in CF. Should be a COFer and inability to hit lefties at all makes me think he won’t be a star.

warpath
11 days ago
Reply to  matt

He was noticeably worse against lefties in the minors this year, but he wasn’t unplayable or anything. .799 AAA OPS vs. LHP this year in 85 PA compared to .991 AAA OPS vs. RHP this year in 223 PA.

In AAA, he had a 14.3% K Rate/15.2% BB rate against RHP, and a 18.8% K Rate/9.4% BB rate against LHP. His chase rate rose from 22.4% against RHP to 27.2% against LHP, and his contact rate barely fell against LHP.

So he chases and strikes out more and makes a little less contact, but it doesn’t seems like he’s completely hopeless. Really the big issue is that the GB% spikes from around 40% against RHP to around 60% against LHP. He is just not on-time and doing damage against lefties. I have faith he may be able to improve that.

Last edited 11 days ago by warpath
FrancoeursteinMember since 2020
11 days ago

What’s the rationale behind a 21 year old not projecting to get meaningfully better as he ages into his mid 20s?

FrancoeursteinMember since 2020
11 days ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Agreed, we do see that a lot. Jenkins certainly does “old man” skills and it wouldn’t surprise me if he peaked early. However it’s just strange that ZIPS essentially sees now progression for a player this young.

nathanjMember since 2024
11 days ago

Good article. Stating Kevin Mitchell was a bust confused me until I clicked on to see that he’s not that former MVP Kevin Mitchell (https://nypost.com/2014/08/06/strawberry-says-kevin-mitchell-really-is-a-cat-killer/). I’d still be more careful, Dan.

nathanjMember since 2024
11 days ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Misread the name. Saw the Ke and Mitchell.