The Untold Story of LaRussa’s Bullpen Management, Part 2

Much will be written today and in the coming days about Tony LaRussa’s pitching changes and strategic moves in the eighth inning of World Series Game 5 on Monday night. Others here at FanGraphs will provide you will the gory details.

This post takes a look back at LaRussa’s bullpen management over the 16 years he’s been the skipper for the St. Louis Cardinals. It’s a follow-up post to the one I wrote last Thursday, aptly titled The Untold Story of LaRussa’s Bullpen Management. In last week’s post, I looked at the number of innings pitched by Cardinals relievers each season between 1996 and 2011 and found only four seasons where Cardinals relievers had pitched more innings than the National League per team average. I also examined the number of pitching changes called for by LaRussa during the 2004, 2006 and 2011 postseasons–the years the Cardinals played in the World Series.

I concluded, based on that information, that LaRussa’s reputation for over-managing the Cardinals’ bullpen was not fully supported by the facts. Several readers noted in the comments that looking only at total innings pitched by relievers didn’t tell the whole story. The issue, the readers noted, wasn’t so much how early LaRussa pulled his starting pitcher to get to the first reliever, but how many relievers he used to get from the starter to the end of the game. Or, to put it another way, what was the average number of innings pitched per Cardinals relief appearance as compared to the average for all National League teams.

I’ve now analyzed that data and agree that it paints a more complete portrait of LaRussa’s bullpen management style. Indeed, it confirms the view that LaRussa has been one of the most–if not the most–aggressive bullpen managers in the National League over the past 16 seasons.

Let’s take a look.

The below chart looks at reliever innings pitched and number of relief appearances. I focused on the numbers in the two left columns in my prior post, noting that Cardinals relievers pitched more innings than the average National League team in only four seasons (1998, 1999, 2002 and 2007).  But the numbers in the two right columns show that Cardinals relievers made more appearances than the average National League team in 8 of the last 16 seasons (1996, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2007).

Year	Average IP by Relievers per National League Team	IP by Cardinals Relievers	Average Relief Appearances per National League Team	Relief Appearances by Cardinals
1996	500	430	408	413
1997	468	455	412	399
1998	464	534	395	428
1999	475	514	419	454
2000	467	433	416	386
2001	481	467	442	484
2002	496	529	450	472
2003	494	484	454	460
2004	504	457	467	469
2005	467	398	453	436
2006	504	488	481	469
2007	524	547	507	516
2008	514	499	492	506
2009	502	437	494	481
2010	485	463	486	455
2011	481	463	487	468

Based on total reliever innings pitched and total reliever appearances, LaRussa appears to be in the mainstream in the National League: 8 out of 16 seasons, his relievers made more appearances than the National League average; in the other 8 years, they made fewer appearances than the National League average. But that doesn’t tell the whole story.

The next step was determining the average number of innings pitched for each relief appearance, both for the average National League team and for the Cardinals.  Here, I was focused on the lower numbers–i.e., identifying those seasons where, on average, the Cardinals relievers pitched fewer innings per relief appearance than National League relievers. I identified 8 seasons out of 16 where the Cardinals relievers pitched fewer innings per relief appearance than the National League average, suggesting more pitching changes per game by LaRussa than the average National League skipper. These seasons were 1996, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2009. It’s interesting to note that the only seasons in which Cardinals relievers pitched more total innings than the National League average and fewer innings per relief appearances than the National average were 1996, 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2008.

Year	Average Relief Appearances per National League Team	Average IP per Relief Appearance per National League Team	Relief Appearances by Cardinals	Average IP per Relief Appearances by Cardinals
1996	408	1.23	413	1.04
1997	412	1.14	399	1.14
1998	395	1.17	428	1.25
1999	419	1.13	454	1.13
2000	416	1.12	386	1.12
2001	442	1.09	484	.965
2002	450	1.10	472	1.12
2003	454	1.09	460	1.05
2004	467	1.08	469	.974
2005	453	1.03	436	.913
2006	481	1.05	469	1.04
2007	507	1.03	516	1.06
2008	492	1.04	506	.986
2009	494	1.02	481	.909
2010	486	.998	455	1.02
2011	487	.988	468	.989

Finally, I looked at relief appearances of fewer than 3 outs, for the average National League team and for the Cardinals, in the years 1996-2011. It is this data that shows the sharpest contrast between LaRussa and other National League managers over the last 16 seasons.

As shown below, in all but two seasons (2000 and 2010), LaRussa’s Cardinals had more relief appearances of fewer than 3 outs than the average National League team. In 1996, 2001 and 2003, the Cardinals led the National League in relief appearances of fewer than 3 outs. In 1998, 1999, 2005 and 2009, only one other team had more relief appearances of fewer than 3 outs than did the Cardinals.

Year	Relief Appearances Fewer than 3 Outs (Average for National League)	Cardinals Relief Appearances Fewer than 3 Outs	Teams with More Relief Appearances of Fewer than 3 Outs than Cardinals
1996	112	150	None
1997	121	125	Cubs (157)Rockies(126) Dodgers (128) Pirates (150) Giants (155)
1998	103	124	Cubs (171)
1999	116	147	Marlins (159)
2000	115	105	Diamondbacks (111)Cubs (134) Rockies(179) Marlins (140) Astros (115) Expos (141) Phillies (124) Pirates (142) Padres (111)
2001	121	179	None
2002	126	130	Diamondbacks (172)Rockies(145) Expos (152) Phillies (134) Pirates (132) Padres (155) Giants (134)
2003	130	161	None
2004	133	181	Giants (229)
2005	132	177	Giants (192)
2006	138	166	Braves (174)Cubs (171)
2007	144	149	Reds (209)Marlins (151) Phillies (150) Pirates (169) Giants (170) Nationals (161)
2008	141	179	Braves (188)Mets (237)
2009	151	202	Nationals (209)
2010	148	144	Cubs (152)Reds (152) Rockies(203) Astros (172) Dodgers (168) Mets (167) Giants (155)
2011	149	168	Marlins (178)Astros (179) Mets (193) Pirates (178)

As you can see, several other National League teams also had quite a few seasons at or near the top of the list of reliever appearances of fewer than 3 outs (Cubs, Pirates and Giants). But no other team dominates that list like the Cardinals under Tony LaRussa.

Perhaps it’s no surprise, then, that the 2011 Cardinals now hold the record for the most pitching changes in a postseason. Through Game 5 of the World Series, LaRussa has ordered 65 pitching changes, breaking the record of 62 previously held by the 2002 Giants, who were led by another notorious bullpen tinkerer, Dusty Baker. And there’s at least one game remaining in the 2011 postseason.

We should all buckle our seat belts for Game 6.