These Braves Are Bound for Glory: Kerr, Harris Punch Ticket to NLDS
On April 12, 1862, a group of 24 Union spies — most of them volunteer soldiers, led by civilian James Andrews — commandeered a locomotive in Big Shanty, Georgia, and headed north. Their goal was to rendezvous with Union forces in Chattanooga, destroying rail and telegraph lines as they went. Andrews and his men ran out of fuel less than 18 miles from their destination; all of the raiders were captured and eight, including Andrews, were executed.
Some 164 years later and 15 miles southeast, another group of 20-odd belligerents from up north attempted a heist of their own. The Phillies had just stolen Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Braves, and a repeat performance would win them the series.
They fared little better than the Andrews Raiders. Michael Harris II put Atlanta ahead with a three-run first-inning home run, and Ray Kerr turned in an improbably spectacular spot start that kept the Braves on top the rest of the way for an eventual 6-2 win. None of Don Mattingly’s men were hanged, at least not yet. We’ll see what kind of a reception they get back home.
Michael is a writer at FanGraphs. Previously, he was a staff writer at The Ringer and D1Baseball, and his work has appeared at Grantland, Baseball Prospectus, The Atlantic, ESPN.com, and various ill-remembered Phillies blogs. Follow him on Twitter, if you must, @MichaelBaumann.
I truly hope the city of Philadelphia has a brutal and depressing offseason. They deserve nothing less. This only eases a fraction of the sting of the ’23 NLDS loss, but I will take all the schadenfreude I can get watching Philly melt down right now.
Luckily they’ve got the Flyers to look forward to.
Oh…wait…
Sadly, other than some dear friends who love them, this is the typical reaction I get from Braves’ fans I encounter at my home ball park – when my team loses, they rub our faces in it rather than rejoice in the fine, classy club they are so privileged to support. The Braves are a model franchise and they have been good, really good, for nearly 4 decades for the most part.
But, oh, their fans – they wish us opposing fans despair, spike the ball in our faces, chant the awful chant just because they know it bothers us, ridicule us, swear in front of children and deny it all and blame it on a fan nearby when ushers try to intervene.
Privileged, pompous, pious and petty….
Nevertheless, this team – despite their fans – is easy to like and I hope they get the best of the mighty, 2-time defending champion Dodgers this series.
Lmao, cry more. I am cracking up at “chant the awful chant.” Philly fans deserve all the suffering they are experiencing and I am here for it. Are you new to sports fandom or something?
Perhaps this is a sample size issue because I have never seen any opposing fan treated badly or verbally abused or physically threatened. This is in stark contrast to notoriously bad behavior from Philadelphia fans that do all three and excuse their behavior as just being passionate fans.
Philadelphia sports fans seem to pride themselves on being violently hostile to opposing team fans. I thought this was widely known.
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I wouldn’t say “violent” – they’re not Niners fans or anything.
It’s more that they hate whomever they’re playing with every bit of ferocity that Red Sox fans hated the Yankees through 2004.
And they hate the Cowboys more.
That said, it’s all built on a certain townie ferocity that’s quite alien to a white OTP suburb.
Seeing Sale close out this game tonight (21 pitches) with a 4 run lead reminds me of 2018 when Roberts used Kershaw to close out game 7 of the LCS in Milwaukee with a 4 run lead. Doc brought Clayton back in two days to start game 1 of the World Series in Boston and he got lit up.
It may bite them in the DS, but for this Braves fan, beating the Phillies was the most important consideration. I hate them extremely. Realistically the Braves were always going to be heavy underdogs against the Dodgers, so I’m going to be happy with what they accomplished and consider anything more as just a bonus.
This is the overall correct take, I think, for Braves fans. Beating the Phillies this year to finally shake off the ’22 and ’23 losses always had to be the #1 priority this postseason. I would not have put in Sale, but I understand why we did.
Between last season’s disappointment and then starting the year projected to be the 3rd best team in the division, beating the Phillies was more important than most anything else they could accomplish this playoffs because of their recent playoff history.
To add, the potential this win has to absolutely slam shut the Phillies window is possibly what makes most fans appreciate it.
A totally legitimate position that you take. Beyond the legitimate points you make, the other difference here is that in 2018 Roberts doubled down on stupidity and started Clayton in game one of the WS. Weiss (and the entire Braves organization) fully understand from performance and health perspectives that Sale has got to have appropriate rest. They will not start him until game two and perhaps not until game three. Sale will not be starting two games in this series; but, it’s very realistic to think that he will pitch in relief in game five when the game abd series is on the line.
This is my concern.
Sale isn’t starting game 1 though. And Sale wanted to pitch. Weiss said after the game that he wasn’t going to go to Sale unless Sale asked him to go. Sale told him before the game to use him.
Not criticizing you, just responding since you have a good piece of info.
My take is a manager’s job is to look out for a club’s best interest and not just do what players tell them. In this case with a four run lead, he should have told Sale we need you for the NLDS, especially with the other relievers available for the ninth.
Yeah, pitching Sale was crazy. The Braves had a four run lead in the 8th inning, an excellent bullpen, and were facing the worst playoff offense they will see. Just an absolutely awful decision.
I definitely see that. I think it’s a case of Weiss trusting Sale to know what he can do. I was surprised to see Sale pitch but I don’t think it will ultimately make a difference for his starting game 2. It could still go wrong, the Dodgers are the Dodgers, but I don’t think 4 outs yesterday is pivot point.
what’s the upside though? There are ways that it can go poorly, that frankly we’ve seen happen over and over in the playoffs, and almost no benefit. This wasn’t the 7th game of the world series, so I don’t know why you would act like it is.
I dont really put any stock into it, but both Hosmer and CC in the post game said it’s the kind of thing that fires the whole team up.
So iunno, I disagree with pitching him, but maybe there is an intangible to it?
While I think that what the Marlins are trying with SP pitching in relief is interesting, it really didn’t feel likely that the Phillies were going to win that game. Seemed like relatively low risk, even w the heart of their order up. I think they saw the hitter vs pitcher for Harper and thought too much of it.
Excellent article title
So the Braves will be part of the TNA wrestling ppv in mid October or will they be too busy? Anyway, two years ago after Lindor laid the Smackdown on the the Phillies in the nlds, and knocked them out of the playoffs I felt that the Phillies window had slammed shut and I was wrong. I’m gonna say it again this year and I think I’ll be right. Turner and Realmuto are coming off of wretched seasons, and will be another year older, and Turner has eight or nine yrs left on the deal and Realmuto‘s three year deal was beyond idiotic from day one. Schwarber while still good took a step back from last year and has four years left on his deal and is no spring chicken neither is Harper. Crawford can’t hit, can’t play CF and has a massive ground ball rate and while Painter improved in the second half he’s a fifth starter. Miller can’t stay healthy so there’s that.
Dombrowski as his want has torched the Phillies farm system. Wheeler is still really good and Sanchez and Luzardo are coming off great years , but Nola even with a good second half is not particularly good and his contract is about as underwater as you can get. So you’ve got a bad offense, not a good defense and are very old team I think by 2028 they’ll be battling the Rockies for the worst record in the nl.
The Mets are just snakebit but I think the Nats are sort of under the radar as having really messed up an opportunity this year and next year to contend for the division. This year they had a great offense and one of, if not the worst, pitching staffs in baseball. Everyone should be fired.
Fired? Things are looking up in NatsTown for the first time in five years!
Tobiani just got the job and made some real good moves, and hired good coaches and front office people that got the best out of most of their young players. I loved the Early trade too.
AJ Preller out here like “You call that torching a farm system?”
They only have two 55 FV guys, now!
Another variable is going to be that rotation. They have 3 of the best starters in the league, but after that it’s look like approaching a cliff, but even worse, beyond their starting 5 it actually is a cliff.
So much depends on if Painter is fixed, and that second half is his normal going forward…but Aaron Nola isn’t a terrible 5th starter.
so much depends
upon
a red wheel
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glazed with rain
water
beside the white
chickens
Let’s let Schwarber decline before predicting it. I think your Mets predicted that this years AL HR and RBI leader couldn’t possibly produce the season that he did and paid the price for that mistake. This year was, in reality, no different than any other of his five remarkably similar seasons Schwarber has had with the Phillies. A unicorn, for certain, but a tremendously valuable player. I agree with everything else you mention, especially the Realmuto money burning, and can’t see the Phillies staying near the top much longer.
Schwarber went from a 150 wRC+ to a 130 wRC+ in a year and his xwoba went from the 400’s to the 360’s from 2025 to 2026. It is just something to watch.
Schwarber went from a 130 wRC+ to a 150 wRC+ in a year and his xwOBA went from .380 to .400 from 2024 to 2025.
He hit .226/.349/.507 over his first four years in Philly and .232/.354/.503 this year – Ks were up a tick, but his Contact% and ZContact% were steady.
Yep – this was a rounding error up from his average from the previous 4 seasons.
34 isn’t young…but I’m pretty firmly expecting his normal 40-something HR and .365 wOBA next year.
What about Painter’s second half indicates he’s a 5th starter?
84 ERA-/87 FIP- with an xERA in the same range, averaging 5.2 IP/start – that’s pretty clear-cut #2 starter territory in today’s game.
And as far as the rest of the farm goes…they still have two 55 FV prospects after Miller’s season from hell, with Rincon and Renteria as arrow up guys.
I think painter could easily be a #3 SP
If this were peak Dixie/Russo TNA years, maybe we’d get an Ozzie Albies’ exotic fish aquarium on a pole match.
I think the Phillies might have 1 more run, but the long term is bleak.
PHI has Harper, Schwarber, Turner, Luzardo, Nola, and Sanchez for a combined $150MM through 2030.
Harper, Turner, Luzardo, and Sanchez through 2031 for $105M combined.
Those 6 guys are already an average age of 32.
seems weird to mention a top 50 trade value contract when talking about a team being underwater. Remove Luzardo and Sanchez from your analysis and you’ve got a point though.
Oh man TNA had so much talent and sadly Vince Russo booked the promotion for around a decade between his three different runs. What a shame.
Feels like some dark times are coming for the Phillies, every fan knows this was the end of an era.
They have a ton of money tied up in an ancient core; if Harper or Schwarber show any sign of decline it’s game over. Realmuto is predictably a shell of himself because they’ve refused to ever give him a real backup catcher. They’ve been waiting for the young guys to make a leap for so long that they’re not young anymore (Bohm is 30, Stott and Marsh turn 29 this offseason).
And the GM who’s supposed to navigate them out of this is Dave Dombrowski. They could just run it back and hope that Trea Turner has a bounceback year, but good chance that ends in total catastrophe.
might end in catastrophe, but what other choice do they have? it’s the weakest free agent class we’ve seen in years (decades?). they are in a similar position (not age wise, but team building wise) to the mariners. there really isn’t any other option than to run it back and hope for the best or trade part of your core and start a (semi?) rebuild.
What you might think about the chances of Turner bouncing back really does depend on how much you think his massive BABIP dropoff is due to age or luck. .284 isn’t terrible, but it is also the first time in his career outside of his 44 PA first year that he was under .310.
As a very, very rough estimate, bringing back those 26 points as all singles would put his line in the .265/.315/.400 range, which while not an All-Star level, is much more palatable.
Again, though, that depends on whether you think the BABIP decline is skill or luck (it’s almost certainly both).
If there is anything I enjoy almost as much as baseball it is my passion for all things Civil War so I loved the intro. I wonder if anyone else here has seen the Disney movie, “The Great Locomotive Chase”. In 1956 Disney was coming off of the incredibly successful Davy Crockett series and Fess Parker became an instant superstar. This film followed soon after and I remember seeing it. Parker went on to play Daniel Boone in the long running series and is an American icon.
Good for Ray Kerr, what a story. Very very happy for him.
Kerr with another huge 3.