Tigers Endure RISP Agony as Guardians Take Game 2 to Even Wild Card Series
The first inning was a harbinger. The eighth inning featured an offensive explosion for a team that all too often struggles to score. The Cleveland Guardians plated five runs to break a 1-1 tie and went on to beat a thoroughly frustrated Detroit Tigers team 6-1. The season-saving rally evened the best-of-three Wild Card series at one apiece, setting up a decisive finale for tomorrow afternoon in Cleveland.
The Tigers had their chances. Make that many chances — the first of which came as fans at Progressive Field were just settling into their seats. Parker Meadows pulled a groundball into the four-hole that second baseman Brayan Rocchio could only smother, giving Detroit the first of its 17 baserunners (yes, 17) on the day. Center fielder Chase DeLauter — playing in the first inning of his first big league game — then lost a battle with the sun and wind, dropping a fly ball and giving the Tabbies an early opportunity to open up a lead. Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee survived the little-fault-of-his-own threat. Three strikeouts later, the game went to the home half scoreless.
It didn’t remain scoreless for long. Two batters in, George Valera — a rookie with just 17 major league games under his belt — took Detroit starter Casey Mize deep. It was the first of three Guardians home runs on the day, and while it gave them an early lead, it paled in importance to the two that came later.
One of the game’s biggest plays took place in the fourth inning. With the bases juiced courtesy of a Riley Greene double and a pair of free passes, Javier Báez laced a two-out single to give the Tigers a 2-1 lead… or so it seemed. Zach McKinstry was thrown out trying to go first to third, and the out was recorded just before Dillon Dingler crossed the plate with what would have been the second tally. Initially ruled safe, McKinstry was ultimately determined to be out per video review — this on DeLauter’s first career outfield assist.
The Tigers then went to pitching chaos. After José Ramírez walked to begin the bottom of the fourth, Tigers manager A.J. Hinch lifted his starter after a mere 62 pitches. Mize had allowed just one hit — the home run by Valera — and two walks. Too quick of a hook? Mize’s regular season ledger included a record of 14-6 to go with a 3.87 and a 3.89 FIP. Next to the incomparable Tarik Skubal, the righty has been Detroit’s second-best rotation piece. That said, Mize did have some extreme times-through-the-order splits this season. He held opponents to a .245/.290/.392 slash line with a .297 wOBA the first time facing them in a game; those numbers spiked to .271/.317/.480 for a .338 wOBA the second time through.
Tyler Holton induced a double play after replacing Mize, and he and Kyle Finnegan would ultimately combine to keep the Guardians from scoring again through the seventh inning. To that point — but only to that point — the chaos made sense.
The Tigers’ recent inability to hit with ducks on the pond barely makes sense. Detroit managed to win Game 1 despite going just 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position, and today the hitters were even worse in those situations. The top of the seventh was an especially painful squander.
Gleyber Torres had his uniform brushed by a Hunter Gaddis heater, after which Kerry Carpenter grounded a single up the middle to put runners on the corners with nobody out. Given Cleveland’s own issues with scoring, even one run crossing the plate might have done the job for a Tigers team looking to put a disappointing September in the rearview. It didn’t happen. Both a managerial decision and a borderline ball-strike call played a part in what transpired.
Spencer Torkelson popped up for the first out, bringing Greene, Detroit’s top hitter, to the plate with a chance to be a hero… except he didn’t come up to the plate. When the Guardians replaced Gaddis with southpaw Tim Herrin, Hinch pinch-hit for Greene — he of the 36 home runs, 111 RBI, and 121 wRC+ — with lefty-killer Jahmai Jones.
The only thing killed was the rally.
Jones, who had a .970 OPS against southpaws this year, took a 3-1 curveball just below the zone for a called strike, then, in full protective mode, swung and missed at another curveball in basically the same location. Herrin then fanned Wenceel Pérez with a high heater to end the inning. The Tigers were now 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position.
When Cade Smith came on an inning later to strike out Meadows with a runner on second, the Tigers dropped to 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position, and words spoken by Hinch in the final week of the regular season came to mind.
“They went from [Emmanuel] Clase to Cade Smith, so I feel for them,” said the manager, his vocal intonation indicative of the respect he has for Cleveland’s replacement closer. “They had a pretty good backup plan.”
The lack of an ideal option in Detroit’s bullpen then helped lay waste to its Game 2 chances. With Holton and Finnegan spent, and Will Vest having gone four outs for a save on Tuesday, Hinch called on rookie right-hander Troy Melton for the bottom of the eighth. Melton has outstanding stuff, but he also has just 16 games of major league experience. Based on what happened next, his 17th game was clearly his worst.
Rocchio, who won Cleveland’s regular-season finale with a three-run walk-off home run, followed a groundout by taking Melton deep to give the Guardians a 2-1 lead. The offensively challenged home team wasn’t done. Steven Kwan doubled. Daniel Schneemann then doubled Kwan home to make it 3-1. Ramírez was then issued an intentional walk. That was it for Melton, but not for the runs. Brant Hurter entered the contest, only to surrender a three-run jack to Bo Naylor. Suddenly, and somehow, it was 6-1 Guardians.
The Tigers didn’t go quietly in the ninth, but even that effort made for more of the same. Detroit loaded the bases, only to have Dingler line out to end the game. The RISP numbers tell you all you need to know. Cleveland went 2-for-3 with runners in scoring position, with one of the swings producing three runs. Detroit went 1-for-15, with the lone hit resulting in a run, but also a runner being thrown out on the bases to negate what would have been another.
To say that it was a day of lost opportunities for the Tigers would be an understatement. For the Guardians, they were outplayed for most of the game and won anyway. What happens tomorrow — outside of the winner advancing to the ALDS — is anyone’s guess. Based on the first two games, anything might happen.
David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.
I was shocked they PH for Greene. I wondered if he was injured, but apparently he was just slumping and bad vs LHP.
You also need to have Jones hit in that spot and there wasn’t another lefty he could hit for. It was much more about Jones than Greene.
Playing against Cleveland is maddening in so many different ways.
That is exactly what they are going for — they can’t win any other way, bc they don’t have a lineup that can win any other way.
Good win for the Guardians but tomorrow worries me. I commented a few days ago that there was no way Cecconi would start game 3 but I was wrong. I assumed it would be Messick or Cantillo. Not excited about Cecconi – who’s very homer-prone – pitching in a must-win game with a tired bullpen behind him.
Guardians have gone with the most HR-prone pitchers available in Williams and Bibee. Maybe it’s some cunning plan. I’d have picked Cantillo also.
A former MLB player who sees the Guardians on a regular basis recently told me that Cantillo has the best stuff among the team’s starters. Said that his pitches have great movement.
The other CLE starters all say he has a bugs bunny changeup.
Cecconi seemed to turn a corner late in the season. If he pitches the way he did during his hot stretch he can be very tough. Or he could pitch the way he did during his not so hot stretches and it could be meatball city
That’s the issue with him. He’s very inconsistent and you never know what he’s going to do. Granted that’s true of all pitchers but seems more true of him.
Cecconi will be on a short leash and it makes sense given how Detroit generally hits LHP much better. Cantillo should be warming after the first time through the order. It’s more the late game situations I’m nervous for. Cade and Gaddis have already thrown a lot.
Cecconi will be on a short leash and it makes sense given how Detroit generally hits LHP much better. Cantillo should be warming after the first time through the order. It’s more the late game situations I’m nervous for. Cade and Gaddis have already thrown a lot.
he playing matchups. Tigers have a 114 WRC+ against LHP on the season. It’s only 98 vs RHP. He’s hoping Slade can thru the order twice and then he will play matchups
Perhaps but expecting him to go through the order twice is a mistake.
He has a .567 OPS against the first time through the order, .944 the second time.
Between A.J. Hinch and Alex Cora, we’ve seen the managers with Game 1 in the back pocket be very aggressive with the bullpens. Interesting strategy that didn’t pay off for either tonight, but the final letter will be written tomorrow.
I mean it makes sense bc neither team used their bullpen outside of their closer in last nights game, so they could afford getting aggressive.
Frustrating game.
Hinch did not have his best game. Did not like pulling Mize so early, he was pitching fine. Detroit just does not have the bullpen depth to get 6 innings out of it. & now he’s burned Holton for today probably.
Bad slide by McKinstry on that play at 3B. Needs to go to the inside of the bag & his right hand missed the bag. That said, I watched that replay 20x & still not sure there is proof the tag is down before McKinstry touches the bag. IMO, that was one where the call on the field should have been upheld.
Home plate ump was bad yesterday. Gave Cleveland at least 5 strikes that were clearly balls with the one to Jones being the worst/most crucial. Changed the entire tenor of the game with that 1 call. Bring on the challenge system.
If Detroit gets good Flaherty today, they have a chance..but, get a freaking hit with RISP. Been watching this story for 3 weeks now & have a feeling they’re in for another heartbreaking loss.
These single game playoff summaries are so much more fun to read than the usual boring summaries one finds on mainstream sites. I know the mismatch between the sheer volume of regular season games and the limited number of writer time means it’s not feasible to do them for every game, but if you ever are able to spend like George Steinbrenner in his heyday, please consider it.
It also helps to have the depth of good writers (and breadth of styles) that FG currently employs.
I love what Matthew Trueblood at BP did this year, he took one game a week and did a deep dive into it, from the pitcher matchup to summarizing the game to analyzing manager approaches.