Top of the Order: NL Trade Deadline Preview
Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
With less than four weeks to go until the July 30 trade deadline, now’s a great time to start taking a lay of the land and determining which teams will be buying, which will be selling, and which are caught in the middle. I looked at the AL teams on Tuesday, so today, let’s cover the NL clubs.
All playoff odds are updated through the start of play on Thursday.
The Obvious Buyers
Philadelphia Phillies (99.9% playoff odds)
The Phillies just won’t stop winning, injuries be damned. They kept winning when Trea Turner went down with a hamstring strain in early May and missed a month and a half, and more recently when catcher J.T. Realmuto underwent right knee surgery a few weeks ago. Now, they’ve continued to win without sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, who landed on the IL last week with relatively minor groin (Schwarber) and hamstring (Harper) strains. Philadelphia’s strong starting pitching depth has been tested lately too, with Taijuan Walker and Spencer Turnbull also on the shelf.
Still, just because the Phillies have weathered these injuries so far doesn’t mean they’ll survive if this attrition keeps building. Moreover, even when they are at full strength, the Phillies still have some areas of weakness they can and should upgrade before the end of this month.
Center field has been something of a black hole in Philadelphia this season. Johan Rojas has floundered in his first year as the full-time starter, and while they could move Brandon Marsh to center, he is best suited to play left field. The Phillies also should consider cutting ties with struggling utilityman Whit Merrifield.
Potential Additions: Center fielders Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Marlins), utilitymen Amed Rosario (Rays), Garrett Hampson (Royals), and Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals).
Los Angeles Dodgers (99.3% playoff odds)
The Dodgers didn’t make a flashy deadline move in either of the past two seasons, with the 2021 blockbuster for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner representing their last foray into the deep end of the market. But this year might be the time to swing big.
As good as the Dodgers are, they’re very top heavy on both offense and defense. Gavin Lux and Walker Buehler haven’t bounced back from injury as expected, Max Muncy’s oblique injury has forced him to the 60-day IL, and the bullpen depth has been tested by inefficient starting pitching and injuries to Ryan Brasier and Brusdar Graterol. Getting back injured players like Mookie Betts, Muncy, Clayton Kershaw, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Graterol at various points in the second half will certainly help, but their returns might not be enough to prop up the bottom end of the roster and carry the Dodgers to the heights expected of them.
Potential Additions: Shortstop Bo Bichette (Blue Jays), utilitymen Luis Rengifo (Angels) and Amed Rosario (Rays), starting pitchers Garrett Crochet (White Sox), Tyler Anderson (Angels), Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt, and Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Mason Miller (Athletics), Carlos Estévez (Angels), and Tanner Scott (Marlins).
Atlanta Braves (92.0% playoff odds)
The parallels to the 2021 team are obvious here, except these Braves are in an even better spot. Rather than floating around .500 at the deadline, as they were three seasons ago, the 2024 Braves have excellent playoff odds even without Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider.
Outfield remains an issue, with Adam Duvall struggling and the assorted cast subbing for the injured Michael Harris II stinking things up, and rookie right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach isn’t really cutting it as the fifth starter.
The shallow farm system impacts the quality of player the Braves will be able to acquire, so the list of potential additions was created with that in mind. Additionally, I’m focusing on outfielders who bat left-handed, knowing that Duvall is likely to be half of a platoon.
Potential Additions: Outfielders Jesse Winker (Nationals) and Adam Frazier (Royals), and starting pitchers Tyler Anderson (Angels), Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Chris Flexen (White Sox), Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen (Rangers), Frankie Montas (Reds), and Martín Pérez (Pirates).
Milwaukee Brewers (91.4% playoff odds)
The Brewers have plenty of position player and bullpen depth, and this week they buttressed their injury plagued rotation by trading for righty Aaron Civale, who should slot nicely into the middle of the rotation.
With Civale in the fold, there’s certainly less for the Brewers to do for the rest of the month, though they could certainly add another starting pitcher or swingman-type to help cover innings. I don’t expect any big names.
Potential Additions: Starting pitchers Trevor Williams (Nationals), Chris Flexen (White Sox), Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen (Rangers), Frankie Montas (Reds), and Martín Pérez (Pirates).
On The Fence
San Diego Padres (57.6% playoff odds)
Never count out A.J. Preller during trade season. He could acquire star players, trade away above-average rentals, make smaller moves on the margins, or all of the above. Pitching, pitching, and more pitching would be the need if they add.
Nothing’s off the table for the Padres because nothing’s ever off the table for the Padres. A farm system weakened by the Dylan Cease trade has less to offer if Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries are truly untouchable, but there are still a few coveted prospects for San Diego to offer. The Friars could also trade from their infield depth at the major league level with Xander Bogaerts expected back from injury at some point before the end of the month.
Potential Additions: Starting pitchers Garrett Crochet (White Sox), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Chris Flexen (White Sox), Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen (Rangers), Frankie Montas (Reds), and Martín Pérez (Pirates), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Scott Alexander (Athletics), Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Adam Cimber, and Luis García (Angels), and Tanner Scott (Marlins)
Potential Subtractions: Infielder Ha-Seong Kim and outfielder Jurickson Profar are the two key rentals, but I think Preller would trade pretty much anybody if the deal was right, except for Fernando Tatis Jr. and — maybe — Jackson Merrill.
St. Louis Cardinals (41.7% playoff odds)
The Cardinals have completely turned around their season, and while our playoff odds don’t love their chances, they’ll almost certainly be buyers based on how things have gone since their horrid March/April. Acquiring a bat for the injury plagued outfield should be a focus, and they could also use some marginal additions to their pitching staff.
Still, there are games to be played before the deadline, and while I don’t see a blowup, the Redbirds have rentals that teams would covet, and maybe someone would give them an offer they couldn’t refuse for closer Ryan Helsley.
Potential Additions: Outfielders Taylor Ward (Angels), Jesse Winker (Nationals), and Brent Rooker (Athletics), and starting pitchers Trevor Williams (Nationals), Chris Flexen (White Sox), Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen (Rangers), Frankie Montas (Reds), and Martín Pérez (Pirates), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Adam Cimber, and Luis García (Angels), Scott Alexander (Athletics), and Tanner Scott (Marlins).
Potential Subtractions: First baseman Paul Goldschmidt, third baseman Nolan Arenado, infielders Brandon Crawford and Matt Carpenter, starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, and relievers Helsley, Andrew Kittredge, and Giovanny Gallegos.
New York Mets (41.5% playoff odds)
The Mets’ offense is rolling and the pitching has been adequate enough to get some wins while Edwin Díaz is suspended, but it’s still basically a coin flip as to whether they’ll be playing more than 162 games this year.
Relief pitching was a major strength to start the year and is now a major need, and the starting pitching isn’t going deep into games either. The Mets could cast a wide net and look for help beyond this year, too. If they sell, they have a huge cache of rentals.
Potential Additions: Starting pitchers Garrett Crochet (White Sox), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Michael Lorenzen (Rangers), Tyler Anderson (Angels), Frankie Montas (Reds), and Martín Pérez (Pirates), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Adam Cimber, and Luis García (Angels), Tanner Scott (Marlins), and Scott Alexander (Athletics).
Potential Subtractions: First baseman Pete Alonso, center fielder Harrison Bader, designated hitter J.D. Martinez, starting pitchers Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana, and relief pitchers Adam Ottavino, Adrian Houser, and Jake Diekman.
Arizona Diamondbacks (25.9% playoff odds)
The two World Series teams from last season are in similar, uninspiring situations.
During the offseason, the Diamondbacks notably increased payroll to make a run at another league championship, so I don’t see them adding any more high-salary guys if they go that route, instead hoping for internal improvements from Corbin Carroll and Jordan Montgomery. Lefty starter Eduardo Rodriguez is also expected to make his Arizona debut at some point down the stretch.
Should the D-backs sell, they would almost certainly decide to do a quick reset rather than a complete teardown. At this point, it still feels unlikely that they’d punt, given the mediocrity in the NL Wild Card race and their postseason run last year, but if they do, they’d have arguably the best rental bat (Christian Walker) and closer (Paul Sewald) on the market.
Potential Additions: Utilitymen Amed Rosario (Rays) and Luis Rengifo (Angels), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Adam Cimber, and Luis García (Angels), Tanner Scott (Marlins), and Scott Alexander (Athletics).
Potential Subtractions: First baseman Christian Walker, outfielders Randal Grichuk and Joc Pederson, and reliever Paul Sewald.
San Francisco Giants (24.6% playoff odds)
So much for the Giants having a great rotation led by Logan Webb and Blake Snell. Snell has been awful when on the mound, and he’s already landed on the IL twice with groin injuries, leaving Webb as the only Giants starter to last the whole season in the rotation and putting immense strain on the bullpen.
On the offensive side, the platoon-heavy Giants might feel content with what they’ve got, though they’re always on the lookout for more plug-and-play guys. If San Francisco sells, the platoon players on its roster might be enticing for other clubs.
Potential Additions: Starting pitchers Garrett Crochet (White Sox), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Michael Lorenzen and Andrew Heaney (Rangers), Frankie Montas (Reds), Tyler Anderson (Angels), and Martín Pérez (Pirates), and utilitymen Amed Rosario (Rays) and Luis Rengifo (Angels).
Potential Subtractions: Infielder Wilmer Flores, outfielders Michael Conforto and Austin Slater, starting pitcher Alex Cobb, and reliever Luke Jackson.
Should Probably Sell, But Will They?
Cincinnati Reds (10.2% playoff odds)
It’s been a frustrating season for the Reds, but a sweep of the Yankees — while it may not meaningfully have changed their playoff odds — might give them the confidence to buy.
Trading prospects to boost a longshot playoff push doesn’t feel very prudent, but considering all the acquisitions the Reds made in the offseason, they may still go that route; they could even jump in for a longer-term player or two.
Potential Additions: Utilitymen Amed Rosario (Rays) and Luis Rengifo (Angels), starting pitchers Garrett Crochet (White Sox), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Michael Lorenzen and Andrew Heaney (Rangers), Tyler Anderson (Angels), and Martín Pérez (Pirates), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Adam Cimber, and Luis García (Angels), Tanner Scott (Marlins), and Scott Alexander (Athletics).
Potential Subtractions: Starting pitcher Frankie Montas, and relievers Lucas Sims, Brent Suter, and Buck Farmer.
Pittsburgh Pirates (9.8% playoff odds)
As tantalizing as it may be to imagine a playoff rotation fronted by Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones, that might have to wait for next season, even if owner Bob Nutting said in late June that the team was planning to buy at the deadline.
The lack of offensive thump up and down the lineup can’t be fixed in a single deadline, unless Nutting’s front office goes completely, ahem, nuts with trading prospects. That said, the Buccos are clearly confident in their future, so the biggest names on the team should and almost certainly will be staying put.
Potential Additions: First basemen Pete Alonso (Mets), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), and Christian Walker (Diamondbacks), and outfielders Taylor Ward (Angels) and Brent Rooker (Athletics), and utilityman Luis Rengifo (Angels).
Potential Subtractions: Catcher Yasmani Grandal, first baseman Rowdy Tellez, outfielder Michael A. Taylor, starting pitcher Martín Pérez, and reliever Aroldis Chapman.
Chicago Cubs (5.1% playoff odds)
The extreme disappointment of the Cubs’ season will probably translate to an extremely disappointing deadline, because even if they sell, they don’t have that much to trade away. Cody Bellinger’s opt outs, in my opinion, make it incredibly difficult to trade him. How can teams possibly determine how much to give up when he could be a free agent at the end of 2024, 2025, or 2026?
The good news is they have a deep farm system, so if they decide to add, they can go big for guys with multiple years of club control.
Potential Additions: First baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), outfielder Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox), and starting pitcher Garrett Crochet (White Sox).
Potential Subtractions: Relievers Drew Smyly, Héctor Neris, and Jorge López.
Definite Sellers
Washington Nationals (1.0% playoff odds)
Even when they were playing decently, the Nationals’ playoff odds peaked at 3.5% on June 19, and recent poor play has solidified that they’ll be trading players away come July 30.
As they enter a key evaluation period for prospects James Wood and Cade Cavalli (when activated off the IL) as well as tracking the continued development of youngsters MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Luis García Jr., and Jacob Young, they’ll be shedding the rentals and older players from their roster who wouldn’t be a part of the next good Nats squad anyway.
Potential Subtractions: First baseman/outfielder Joey Gallo, outfielder Jesse Winker, utilityman Ildemaro Vargas, starting pitcher Trevor Williams, and relievers Kyle Finnegan, Derek Law, and Dylan Floro.
Colorado Rockies (0.0% playoff odds)
The NL’s version of the Angels, the Rockies probably ought to be trading away more than they will. Instead, they’ll likely do what they usually do: Shop their rentals while convincing themselves that they have what it takes to contend next year.
That said, they’re reportedly at least considering offers for non-rentals, which could lead to a more lucrative deadline than expected.
Potential Subtractions: Catchers Elias Díaz and Jacob Stallings, and starting pitchers Austin Gomber, Cal Quantrill, and Dakota Hudson.
Miami Marlins (0.0% playoff odds)
It’s possible that the Luis Arraez trade will prove to be the biggest the Marlins make this year, but Jazz Chisholm Jr. would fit nicely on many teams, and Tanner Scott could return more than expected depending on what other relievers are available.
Injuries to Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett will keep them out until after the trade deadline, meaning they’ll probably be staying put in Miami.
Potential Subtractions: First baseman Josh Bell, center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr., starting pitcher Trevor Rogers, and relievers Tanner Scott, JT Chargois, A.J. Puk, and Anthony Bender.
Jon Becker manages RosterResource's team payroll pages, assists with all other aspects of RosterResource, and also dabbles in creating new features as a Junior Developer. Follow him at your own peril: @jonbecker_ on Twitter and @jon-becker.com on Bluesky.
Got the Harper and Schwarber injuries backward, Schwarber is groin and Harper is hammy
Fixed, thanks!
Maybe the Phillies trade for Robert or Chisholm anyway but Marsh is a true center fielder. He can absolutely handle CF and they should be on the lookout for corner outfield options too.
He can handle CF, but do you really want him in there against lefties? The absurdity of how bad he is against lefties is easily masked by how amazing he’s been against righties, but you can’t pen him into the lineup full time when he’s the literal equivalent of an automatic out against lefties.
I mean, there’s no other Phillies batter you’d love to face right now as a lefty, and that’s saying something against this Phillies outfield.
The flip side of this is that maybe with Nick Castellanos in RF having two CFers isn’t excessive. Maybe.
Castellanos seems like DFA material.
Much more of a potential market for Chris Flexen than I would have expected. I guess not awful starting pitching is fairly scarce.
I would not trade any prospect for him but since the Brewers started Dallas Keuchel recently I suppose he would be an upgrade somewhere:
Chris Flexen has run a 5.74 FIP over 180+ innings over the last two seasons, and a 5.00 FIP for his career. Only in the writer’s fantasies is any contender going to be trading for Flexen.
I think there are two kinds of teams in MLB. There are a few that aggressively want to win the World Series and many more that are content to just be good enough to make the playoffs and then hope to get lucky or hot. The biggest indicator of which is which is how they approach starting pitching.
The first group wants to get as many good guys as they can and don’t care about risk. They try to accumulate 5 or more guys they trust to start a playoff game because they know some of them will get injured or underperform. Those teams have no use for Flexen at this time of year.
The other group is fine with three or even two good starters and then fills out the roster with back of the rotation guys, figuring that if they can will worry about game 3 of a playoff series if they can manage to hold on for 85 wins in the regular season. If somebody gets hurt, they just tell the fanbase it was bad luck even though pitchers getting hurt isn’t “luck” so much as “guaranteed.” Those teams might need several Flexens to get them to the end of the year because the alternative, as sadtrombone pointed out, is something like Dallas Keuchel and they can maybe get Flexen for some 35 FV SIRP in A ball or middle infielder that is never going to hit well enough to be a regular.
But if I were a GM I wouldn’t give up anything for him either.
Flexen is really not a good pitcher.
Indeed – he’s the very worst pitcher in MLB since beginning of 2023 who’s been allowed to throw as many as 180 innings.
“There are a few that aggressively want to win the World Series and many more that are content to just be good enough to make the playoffs and then hope to get lucky or hot.”
While I understand the point you are making, the way you phrased this is a bit unfair to contending teams that have a limited budget. I am sure they all WANT to win the WS and WISH they could be aggressive, but they have certain financial realities, and they really aren’t CONTENT to “just be good enough”, they are essentially FORCED to be. This is especially true with all the issues with various Bally sports local TV deals.
Don’t believe anything an owner tells you about not being able to afford a higher payroll if your teams isn’t above the luxury tax threshold. They may not be able to spend like the Mets, but they can most definitely spend more than they currently are. Every single team in the bottom half of the league could easily afford spending another $25-30 million.
I don’t think you have the financial numbers to back up your claim, nor do I, but not all MLB owners are actually making money hand over fist every year, and especially with the issues of local TV contracts due to the Bally Sports fiasco, they aren’t getting the same revenue streams that they have in the past.
The author mentioned Flexen multiple times but not Fedde. I actually wonder if that was an error.
I think you are probably right
I would add Lane Thomas to potential subtractions for the Nationals. He’s been hitting really well since he came back off the IL and only has one more season of team control after this one. With Wood/Crews/Young being viable starters they can afford to move him as well.
Harvey is probably at the bottom of his trade value due to a bad June and early July, but he’s another guy that teams may call about.
I think the omission of Harvey and Thomas may be due to their potential role next year as setup or closer and as DH even with Crews. While Finnegan is also under team control in 2025, there’s probably a sense he’s at peak value and that Rizzo should shop him.
The Braves definitely need a right-handed starter platoon mate for Kelenic. If Duvall also needs to be platooned then what they need is an everyday corner outfielder.
Ideally they get an everyday outfielder that would push Duvall/Kelenic back into platoon. At the very least a lhb to platoon with Duvall as Kelenic is young enough that he can still improve vs lhp.
That’s kind of why I find it interesting that the Braves aren’t included in the running to acquire Robert Jr. I get they may not have the prospects compared to other contenders for him, but they’re certainly as desperate as the rest are to get him.
I think this is where most of the excitement is going to happen. The Padres and Braves are two of the most aggressive teams and they have more prospects to trade than the Astros. I think SD and ATL are the most likely landing spots for Crochet and they should be in on other starters too. The Dodgers do seem to be looking for help too, and they have so many catchers in the minors it seems like they don’t have enough playing time for all of them to be catching everyday. And while the Brewers could just make do with their army of #5 starters, I would argue no team needs pitchers like Fedde or Flaherty more. And they have something like six outfielders, so that they should consider moving Tyler Black and Garrett Mitchell for some help. (And the Phillies have Dombrowski, it’s amazing that Preller and AA have made me overlook him as an aggressive dealer)
The excitement is going to happen in the NL because almost everybody is in it or can fool themselves into thinking they are in it. Only two teams are more than 6 games out of a playoff spot and nobody has more than a 2.5 game lead for the wild card, so you have 10 teams in the melee. In the AL, the White Sox, A’s and Angles are pretty much dead and the Rangers, Jays, and Tigers are all 8.5 games out of the last wild card while the Yankees are 5.5 games ahead of the last wildcard. Things can change, but right now there are 5 teams fighting for two spots instead of 10 for 3 in the NL.
We’ll see if that holds up. Those NL teams fighting for the Wild Cards have started to separate from each other over the past couple of weeks.
This is what’ll be interesting. Their fans may not love it, but one or two teams that may be in the hunt at the deadline would do right by their team in selling at the deadline when there’s going to be so many buyers.
Selling Alonso, for instance, may seem drastic, but the amount of return for him would be more than worth it when there’s really no other comparable players up for trade.
As good as Crochet has been, I would be very wary of trading for him this year given the innings he has thrown this year compared to his entire career. By the time the playoffs come, he will be leaps and bounds above previous innings totals and who knows if he arm takes it. Most teams I feel would realistically be shutting him down for an innings limit soon. I do agree the Braves and Padres are aggressive enough they may try it though.
This. Can’t trade for Crochet and expect him to remain healthy and/or effective down the stretch. That’s before even considering the extremely high asking price.
This is it. Crochet is extremely risky. He has pitched more this year than in his entire rest of his pro career, throws very hard, and has had a lot of arm trouble already. He should probably shouldn’t be pitching much more this year. Only a real risk-taking team is going to trade for him.
As a Brewers fan, if Garrett Mitchell and Tyler Black are traded for Fedde or Flaherty I’m going to flip a table Jim Everett-style.
One of the bubble teams – or perhaps ATL – will take a gamble on Eddie Rosario. Maybe they can figure out if he changed his swing as he was much better in the last 4 years than his WAS stint.
You know, I think you might be onto something with this!
Excellent prediction. ATL just signed Rosario to a minor league deal.
Fedde didn’t get hurt did he? All the teams in on SP would like to acquire him in imagine and I don’t see him listed. Kikuchi is listed for the top teams, but I also imagine any team wanting a SP would be after him given he is a rental and the cost won’t be too high.
Flaherty is also notably missing, although I know he did miss a start. I imagine he will be healthy by the deadline though.
What type of return would the Angels expect for Ward? Their org is so oddly ran that I wouldn’t expect typical behavior from them. They just want bodies in the bigs it seems based off prior draft trends.
Padres are definitely not trading Profar with how thin their OF depth is and the fact that he signed for $1M. He checks every box regarding performance for a team that seems dead set on resetting their CBT. Kim I’d put at a <5% chance of moving if they feel they have no chance at resigning him next year and are positively blown away in a trade offer (controllable mid-rotation starter, multiple mid-high leverage BP arms). I know Preller has a reputation for getting trade drunk, but he never subtracts from his core, especially for 2 of his top 4 players making a combined $8M that are widely acknowledged as clubhouse favorites.
Agreed. Zero chance Profar gets dealt.
Trading Profar was a frankly bizarre suggestion. Agree on the Kim odds — he’s been very valuable, and Preller has no idea what Bogaerts will do the rest of the year.
The farm system’s weaker than it was, but Preller will move any prospect except Salas and De Vries for the right upgrade. The major leaguers most likely to go are Vazquez / Mazur / Campusano.
Yeah, there’s not a whole lot to deal at this point other than upper-level pitching depth, and given how their depth has been tested this year, I’m not sure how open they’d be to subtract meaningfully from that. I’d hope they’d keep Vasquez since he’s starting to round into form at the back of the rotation. I had a similar thought with Campusano given they have some decent C depth (Sullivan and Valenzuela), but it’d be selling low and Higashioka is a FA after next year.
I’m guessing some combination of Mazur, Rosario, and maybe Pauley is what they try to entice teams with unless Preller is willing to part with Lesko/Snelling.
I could see them moving either of those young SPs in the right deal.
I think they’ll likely buy a bullpen piece.
The unknown status of Yu (and Musgrove) creates a lot of uncertainty though.
I think a 7th-inning type that can knock Morejon into more of a true lefty fireman role, a solid mid-leverage arm, and a backend starter (Lorenzen) would be ideal. Lorenzen could soak innings until/if Musgrove and Darvish return this year. Rotation has a lot of guys hitting career innings and BP is overworked and very thin after Suarez/Estrada/Morejon.
At this point, I don’t think the Cardinals need an outfielder, since both Nootbaar and Edman are due back well before the trade deadline.
They’re not truly terrible anywhere. They could either get more relievers or any good player or just get more depth. I guess Brent Rooker could be a DH and Donovan a roving utility guy.
If that scenario means Burly starts daily in the OF, I’m not on board. Burly is not a good defender.
The Cards real problem offensively comes down to 4 of their 5 planned middle of the order bats offensively floudering. I don’t know what they do considering Goldy, Arenado, Gorman, and Walker have not hit. To improve their offense, they need to replace one of the first 3, but I doubt that happens.
They could just put Donovan at 2B and demote Gorman. Then they’d need a real OF to do with Nootbar and Edman. Carlson does exist.
They seem committed to Goldschmidt for the rest of the year and Arenado basically forever. Walker and Gorman seem like possible Goldschmidt replacements in 2025.
Gorman could lose playing time, but he doesn’t deserve to be demoted (certainly not ahead of Fermin and a DFA for Crawford). Yes, Donovan (or Edman) would play more 2B in that scenario.
Burleson and Donovan are just fine in the OF along with Nootbaar and Edman. Yes, Burleson is the first choice to DH, but that still gives you your 3 outfielders, and Burleson’s defense on the grass has improved since last year. Carlson can still only hit lefties, so he’s still just a short side platoon starter.
Burleson is the obvious replacement at 1B next year.
Goldy has hit just fine since the middle of May. Arenado just hasn’t hit for as much power as usual, but he’s still hitting around league average with good defense. Gorman is streaky, but he also has a lot of power and has picked it up again this week, and he has both Donovan and soon Edman to fill in for him if necessary.
The offense is just fine even with Walker still in AAA.
What the Cardinals need is a starting pitcher. Maybe a reliever, too, but that would be a luxury.
The Cardinals are just good enough that it’s hard to upgrade with position players, and just not good enough to go after the elite position player upgrades they could use. They could absolutely use better starters but it might be hard to upgrade unless they are willing to trade some of their better pitching prospects. Which seems a little bit like self defeating.
In other words, after a horrible 2023 the Cardinals are right back as the team they’ve been for a decade plus: high floor, low ceiling, tough to upgrade.
Really weird what happened last year. The team BABIP allowed was 321, one of the worst non-Coors in the last decade plus. This year it’s back to 293. Certainly part of that 321 was deserved (terrible pitching and bad defense) but it sure seems like a 10% swing in BABIP allowed would be pretty bad news for any team, and a death sentence to any team projected to be on the bubble of the playoffs.
The big difference was that after a few years of fielding an elite defense behind a bunch of lower-strikeout starters they had guys like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Alec Burleson out there.
The Cardinals will already have enough good hitters to cover DH once Nootbaar, Edman, and Herrera get back.
C Contreras/Herrera
1B Goldschmidt (or Burleson when Goldy is DH)
2B Gorman/Donovan/Edman
SS Winn
3B Arenado (or Donovan/Edman/Gorman when Arenado is DH)
CF Edman/Nootbaar
LF/RF Donovan/Nootbaar/Burleson (and Carlson vs. LHP)
DH Burleson/Donovan/Goldschmidt/Arenado/Contreras/Herrera
That’s all with the wild card of Walker still at AAA.
Is there any reason to be sure Edman will come back this year, and that he will be a good bat if he does so?
This. 2024 seems like a lost season for him.
The Braves could certainly use another capable starting pitcher, but not really because Schwallenbach has struggled. His ERA has ballooned thanks to bad sequencing, but his xERA, FIP, and xFIP are all fine. But the Braves are smartly using six pitchers most of the time to help preserve older and more fragile or less experienced starters they will need in October.
Winker makes a lot of sense for the Braves with that 370+ obp he could be their lead off hitter the rest of the year.
I’m surprised JP Sears (A’s) doesn’t get mentioned much in trade talks. He had a rough June but teams can always use another 4th starter.
Aren’t he and Cole Irvin the same person?
Pirates look to me like they should be one of those classic “buyers and sellers at the same time” teams. Trade players who are in their last year of their contracts for sure, and trade for guys with a year or two left on their deals. I’m sorry I don’t have any specific names to throw out at the moment off the top of my head, but when a perennial small market team gets this close, they always have small windows so they need to look to make a run in 2025-2026 and not wait longer. The Brewers are pretty good, but I think they are catchable next year. Cardinals in my opinion are long-term trending downward with the roster they have now. Cubs and Reds are floundering, so this is about as good of a window as the Pirates are going to get.
Why pay trade deadline prices for help in 2025-26?
Depends on the situation. If the price is truly inflated due to supply and demand, sure, hold off, but sometimes the trade deadline offers a good opportunity, when there’s a team actively looking to jettison certain players, and maybe those players, while being a good fit for PIT, may not be bidded up by other teams that may not have that particular need.
They should sell. The strength of their team both now and going forward is going to be their big 3 SPs and pushing those guys deep into this season innings wise is shortsighted. Jones going down makes the decision even easier.
Won’t a bunch of these rentals be available for nothing on August 31? The fringe contenders like Pittsburgh and Cincinnati could just see if they’re still in it and then either waive their rentals or get first pick for the waived rentals.
You think the Cubs are going to eat $57 million to release a player on pace for a 2.5 WAR season? They can’t void the player option by releasing him.
I deleted the bit about Bellinger right after I typed it. You must have read it in the intervening seconds.
The August waiver period no longer exists. July 30th is the hard deadline for playoff eligibility.
The Pirates ought to trade Mitch Keller for a young, controllable HITTER since the Pirates have proven themselves unable to develop hitters. My preferred target: The O’s Mayo. He draws walks, doesn’t whiff much and hits for power. The O’s need starting pitching, which the Pirates have in abundance in the Majors and the Minors. They’ll miss Keller, but Cherrington and Nutting’s dumpster dives targeting hitters has sucked. Keller recently signed a team-friendly contract, the only kind of contract the Pirates offer to their players. He’s a cost controlled pitcher with term who has trended upwards the past few years. He stays healthy too. This promises to be a win-win trade if it comes to pass.
I like this idea. The Orioles would probably have to include more position player depth, and maybe Kjerstad instead of Mayo would make more sense for both sides (especially since Hayes is entrenched at third base). But every single team that is on controllable starters who might be good enough to pitch in the playoffs should be interested in Keller.
Pit just extended Keller. They aren’t going to move him.
They should address their hitting in FA.
The Pirates doing significant shopping in free agency? Good luck with that.
The Pirates move up from the dumpster, past the Salvation Army box and the Goodwill store before arriving at Hermès! Not happening.
The Rays would do a trade like this. The Cherrington Pirates. It’s unlikely. But it makes sense.
But every year I keep reading all these articles about how Ke’Bryan Hayes is about to break out…
There’s really just no chance the Cubs buy. They’d have to reel off like a 12-3 stretch just to make it not ridiculous.
Now that Wood is up, the Nats could have a run. The starting pitching is very solid. We just need to score more and get more help in the pen. The top of the pen is being used to much.