Unfathomable and Undeniable: Francisco Lindor’s Grand Slam Sends Mets to NLCS

NEW YORK — As Francisco Lindor stepped in against Phillies reliever Carlos Estévez with the bases loaded, one out, and the Mets down a run in the sixth inning, the Citi Field fans were still singing his walk-up song:
When it’s cold outside, I’ve got the month of May.
The Mets shortstop called time, retreated, and regrouped. The singing continued.
I guess you’d say,
What can make me feel this way?
My girl, my girl, my girl
Talkin’ ‘bout my girl, my girl
They punctuated their sweet serenade with three letters, shouted repeatedly in succession. “M-V-P! M-V-P! M-V-P!”
Lindor returned to the batter’s box, tapped the outside edge of the plate, then the inside one. Now, he was ready to break the game open.
With the count 2-1, Estévez reared back and delivered his fourth straight fastball, a 99-mph belt-high heater over the outer third of the plate. Lindor unloaded. His smooth lefty stroke smacked the projectile flush, piercing it into the right-center field gap at 109.5 mph. It sailed over the wall and into the Phillies’ bullpen for a grand slam.
Off the bat, it was clear that Lindor’s bullet in the gap would give his team the lead, but then it just kept going and going. Kinda like his team. The grand slam propelled the Mets to a 4-1 win in Game 4 of the National League Division Series on Wednesday night and guaranteed that their improbable postseason push would continue for at least another round.
The home run was the perfect encapsulation of these Mets during their rip-roaring last two weeks. It was simultaneously unimaginable and inevitable.
“The whole time the inning is unfolding, [I’m thinking] Lindor is going to do it again,” said manager Carlos Mendoza. “There’s no panic. The way he controls the emotions and he hits that ball. It’s unbelievable.”
The Mets certainly didn’t make things easy. They loaded the bases in each of the first two innings against Phillies starter Ranger Suárez but failed to capitalize.
With one out in the first, Mark Vientos hammered a 2-2 sinker that leaked back over the plate into the left-center gap for a double. Brandon Nimmo then walked to bring up Pete Alonso, who worked the count full before grounding a dribbler to third base. Alec Bohm fielded it, and reached to try and tag Vientos running by him, but Vientos avoided it; the attempted tag not only cost Bohm time, but it also caused him to bobble the exchange. By the time he recovered and fired across the diamond, Alonso was making his final lunge toward the base. Initially called out, the Mets challenged, and the call on the field was overturned: Alonso beat the throw to the bag. Somehow, Alonso was credited with an infield single on the play.
It looked like Suárez would unravel right then and there, but he buckled down. He struck out Jose Iglesias with a three-pitch, curveball-changeup-curveball sequence and then whiffed J.D. Martinez with more soft stuff. After 30 stressful pitches, Suárez escaped unscathed.
One of the big questions entering Game 4 was which version of Suárez the Phillies would get: Would it be the pitcher who led the majors with a 1.83 ERA over the first three months of the season, or the one whose stuff was so diminished over his final 11 starts that opposing hitters combined for the same OPS that Fred McGriff had during his Hall of Fame career?
Turns out, he was a combination of both. He clearly didn’t have his best stuff or command; his curveball was the only pitch in his arsenal that was working. But oh, it was working. He leaned on it in the second inning to get out of another bases-loaded jam.
After a leadoff walk to Starling Marte and a scorching single by Tyrone Taylor, Suárez started spinning curves again, striking out Francisco Alvarez and Lindor on nearly identical deuces in the dirt. Vientos then bounced a grounder to third. The play was slow to develop and Marte was at third by the time Bohm fielded it. He had trouble getting it out of his glove and ate it instead of risking a throwing error. Bohm was bailed out for the second straight inning when Nimmo grounded out to end the threat.
Bohm was one of the best players in baseball during the first half of the season, but he combined for a 74 wRC+ in August and September. Things got even worse once the playoffs began. He was benched in Game 2 — the one game the Phillies won — and in Game 3 he was thrown out trying to stretch a single into a double. That was his only hit in the series.
Alonso walked to lead off the third inning, but then Suárez settled in. He struck out Iglesias with more curveballs and then got Martinez to ground into a 6-4-3 double play.
Meanwhile, Mets starter Jose Quintana was cruising through the first three innings, carving up a Philadelphia lineup that had lost its potency. In the fourth, though, the Phillies got something going. Bryce Harper walked with one out, and Nick Castellanos lined a double over Nimmo’s head in left. The Mets brought the corners in for Bohm, who for all his woes this series did just enough to give the Phillies the lead. He grounded to third where Vientos, ranging to his glove side, fielded it, turned to throw home to get Harper, and then lost control of the ball. Everyone was safe. (Vientos was charged with an error on the fielder’s choice, so Bohm couldn’t even get credit in the box score for driving in the run.) The next batter, J.T. Realmuto, lifted a shallow fly ball to right field that wasn’t deep enough to score Castellanos. Quintana then got Bryson Stott to fly out to center for the final out.
Leading off the fifth, Lindor saw yet another curve from Suárez and wrapped it inside the third base line and into the left field corner. Vientos then walked. Suárez stayed in the game to face Nimmo, who struck out looking on a sinker at the knees. Finally, Phillies manager Rob Thomson went to his bullpen with two on, one out, and Alonso due up. Jeff Hoffman entered and caught Alonso looking at a front-door slider, which slid just enough to clip the corner, before Iglesias grounded out in front of home plate. Once again, the Mets left a runner in scoring position.
As was the case in Game 1, the Phillies scored a run early but couldn’t add to their lead, allowing the Mets to mount a comeback. Facing Quintana for a third time, Harper hooked a double to right field, prompting Mendoza to go to his bullpen — Reed Garrett for the trio of righties due up and then David Peterson for lefty Bryson Stott. Harper was left stranded at second.
“As far as our offense is concerned, I thought the Mets did a real good job on us,” Thomson said. “I thought we had pretty good at-bats today, and not much to show for it. But we had a couple of opportunities and Quintana pitched pretty well. But offense comes and goes, and it’s hard to explain, really.”
What happened next isn’t hard to explain, however. Thomson left Hoffman in too long.
At this point in his career, Martinez is mostly a platoon DH against lefty pitching. That’s why he was in the lineup for Game 4. But even with Hoffman in the game and no lefties ready in the bullpen, Mendoza stayed with Martinez instead of pinch-hitting for him with Jesse Winker, and the veteran slugger promptly rewarded his manager with a single to center. He advanced to second on a wild pitch, and then following a Marte hit by pitch, both runners moved up on another wild pitch. Hoffman issued another free pass to Taylor to load the bases and bring up Alvarez, and still Thomson stuck with his right-hander.
With the infield in, Alvarez grounded to shortstop Trea Turner, who fired home in time to get Martinez and keep the Mets off the board. The Phillies were one double play ball from escaping yet another jam.
Of course, that’s not what happened. Thomson called on Estévez, and Lindor called game. It’s a testament to Lindor that a game-winning home run to send his team to the NLCS might not even be the biggest blast he’s hit in the last month. In fact, from August 17 onward, Lindor has hit nine home runs, eight of which have either tied the game or given the Mets the lead.
“I’m enjoying the moment. I’m living in the moment,” Lindor said. “A lot of people are asking me why I’m not reacting, why I’m not reacting to the home runs. I am reacting, you know. I’m celebrating inside. But at the end of the day, the job is not finished until we play 27 outs.”
Maybe not officially, but after the grand slam, the Phillies were cooked. They made one final push in the ninth against Mets closer Edwin Díaz. Realmuto and Stott walked to bring the tying run to the plate with nobody out. Thomson sent up pinch-hitter Kody Clemens.
After the first pitch to Clemens, a fan in front of the press box shouted over the restless crowd, “THROW A F*CKING STRIKE!” It worked. Díaz struck out Clemens and got Brandon Marsh to fly out. Only Kyle Schwarber, who has the fourth-most home runs in postseason history, stood between the Mets and the NLCS. Díaz struck him out with a 101.1-mph fastball.
The same team that started the season 0-5 and was 11 games under .500 on June 2 is now just four wins away from reaching the World Series. It’s unfathomable. It’s also undeniable.
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
Channeling every Mets fan in front of a TV or listening on a radio or device. And every Diaz fan (Mariners fan here).
Howie’s call was once again perfect saying the Mets who were famished all game for a big hit and got a feast from Francisco Lindor! Mendoza has mostly been using a poor process and getting good results this postseason but his use of David Peterson a relief ace has been pretty damn inspired., Peterson had a terrific season as a starter but has been used as a reliever in the this postseason and has been brilliant as I was calling for him to pitch the ninth . He would be starting this postseason if not for late season games being pushed back due to hurricane Helene and also being used as a closer last series. The Mets run the last four months has been incredible but last night it felt like if the Mets offense would cost them the game and led to a game five but thankfully the right guy came up n the faithful sixth. Man if Diaz had given up a homer to Clemens I might have never watched baseball again lol. What a brutal series for Realmuto, Bohm and Schwarber(besides for his first swing this postseason) and Turner did not have a great series either. The bullpen was the biggest culprit but those guys were brutal. Don’t know how it’ll end but what a ride for the Mets so far and kudos to Q on another her big start in a huge spot.
Purely for the record: once Diaz had fucked up badly enough that he had to face the top of the order, I was expecting with close to 100% certainty that Schwarber was going to tie the game with one swing. It genuinely surprised me that that wasn’t what happened.
Great and poignant start to the article. I love it.
It seems like a good walk up song. It’s happy and reminds him of what is important
Carrying an epipen?
*golf clap* give this man an Internet!
Speaking of the Mets and the WS, why do they have an almost exact chance of making the World Series than the Padres according to Fangraphs Playoff odds? Padres don’t even have a 50% chance of making the LCS. I can understand the Dodgers having a 35–40% odds, but it seems that the Mets should have an almost 50% odds of making the WS by the mere fact that they are guaranteed to playing the LCS and the Padres being more around 15% at this point of getting to and winning the LCS.
Secondly, the Mets have had the best record in baseball over the last 4+ months. Do the odds factor in the play over the last X weeks/months more than early season play or is it just based on the entire season record and play?
The reason is that teams make a number of changes as the year progresses and with injuries, releases, trades and call ups the later weeks seem to be a better gauge than just the entire season (although it makes sense to use the entire year of stats for players who have been here all year long).
Those last four months also coincide with some noticeable changes (e.g. Vientos replacing Baty, Iglesias called up, Alvarez returning, mid-season trades, etc.). At what point do we say that the last four months weigh much more their odds as their entire season combined (including the first two months)?
Since the All Star break and the start of July the Padres have the best record, which is why they’ve been so heavily favored in their series. The Mets only have a better record than them if you go further back to June. But that’s being rather arbitrary, as being a few games better over the last few months is irrelevant when they’ve both been great in the second half.
As to why they’re currently favored over the Mets for the WS despite not making it to the NLCS yet? /shrug
But as the results showed, they didn’t even have great odds of making the LCS. It was perhaps a 45% to make it that far. For them to have 30% odds of making the world series, that means their odds of beating the Mets, had they beat the Dodgers, would have had to be 70% for their odds of reaching the world series to be 30%+. That was clearly way, way off considering both teams played almost exactly the same the last 4 months.
With every game, with every home run, with every win the Mets get closer to the World Series and I continue to be amazed, astounded and transfixed by the eerie similarities between the sensational play of Francisco Lindor and the otherworldly performance of Carl Yastrzemski during the Red Sox Impossible Dream season of 1967. Every time a big play is needed it seems like Lindor provides it. Just as when Alonso came to the plate in the 9th inning in Milwaukee, a strange feeling came over me as Lindor came to the plate last night. Whatever it is, it appears to be taking over other members of the team. Alonso doing his thing when it is needed or Quintana pitching like Kershaw. Whatever it is, it is exciting to watch and the NLCS will be something that transcends the normal.
This Mets team is looking like the 2019 Washington Nationals all over again, 19-31, 12 games under, Mets 11 games under, then, they flip the switch and…magic.
Y’all know the Mets are setting you up for massive heartbreak in the LCS or WS, right?
Everyone stop what they are doing. Mr. Sandwiches says we aren’t allowed to enjoy the moment
Congrats Debbie downer wfan is ready to offer you a job.
Heartbreak? That wouldn’t even be disappointment.
You’re barking up the wrong tree dude. Simply making it to the playoffs was the victory, everything else since has been magical gravy.
This 2024 Met squad has already immortalized itself as quite possibly the most lovable, magical, easy-to-root-for team in the history of this franchise.
Beyond that, I am more than happy for them continue carrying the underdog mantle considering how good a job they’ve done with it so far.