White Sox Turn $25 Million Into Adam LaRoche

There’s kind of a talking point here, about how much the qualifying offer cost Adam LaRoche a few years ago. Following a career year in 2012, LaRoche was extended a qualifying offer, and a market never developed, so he re-signed with the Nationals for two years and $24 million. LaRoche now is older, and he’s coming off a similar offensive season with seemingly worse defense, and with no threat of compensation attached, he signed with the White Sox for two years and $25 million. Imagine what he might’ve been able to get before, were it not for the draft-pick concerns?

A few things. Firstly, yeah, markets get depressed by qualifying-offer extensions. That’s just a part of things right now. Secondly, inflation. The $24 million and $25 million aren’t directly comparable. Thirdly, LaRoche’s contract with the Nationals was actually quite reasonable. He projected for about 2.4 WAR the next year, so his contract projected to pay him about $5.6 million per win, near the average at the time. As I look right now, LaRoche is projected for 1.5 WAR in 2015. So this deal projects to pay him about $10 million per win, well above the assumed average. It’s not that LaRoche was necessarily underpaid before; it’s that now he seems likely to be overpaid.

Something we can say, though: in 2012, LaRoche posted a 127 wRC+. In 2014, LaRoche posted a 127 wRC+. As he gets older he’s going to get worse, but LaRoche right now is a good hitter. The White Sox wanted a good hitter, in particular a good left-handed hitter, and they identified and acquired one. There’s no arguing that the White Sox improved. The argument, as it usually is, is over whether the improvement is worth it.

We know that LaRoche isn’t a good baserunner. He’s at best a fine defensive first baseman. What he brings is pretty good power, but he’s entering his age-35 season. And while this move would make more sense if the White Sox were right on the cusp, at the moment that doesn’t appear to be the case. This is a table of projected positional WARs. You see American League averages, and the White Sox, and the White Sox’s league rank. Let’s just take this for what it’s worth:

Team	C	1B	2B	SS	3B	LF	CF	RF	DH	SP	RP	WAR
AL Avg.	3.3	2.6	2.7	2.3	3.2	2.1	2.8	2.5	1.4	8.7	1.9	33.6
White Sox	1.9	3.3	1.7	2.4	1.5	0.9	2.2	1.3	2.2	8.0	0.4	25.9
–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–
AL Rank	15	3	12	8	13	14	8	13	3	8	15	14

The assumption is that LaRoche and Jose Abreu in some way split time at first base and DH. According to the table, at one position are the White Sox projected to be within a half-win of average. They’re below average at eight positions, and above average at two positions. The end result is that they’re projected for the second-lowest team WAR in the league, between the Twins and the Astros. When you’re looking at small projected differences, you can shrug and call them the same. The White Sox, though, are pretty far back. For the moment, they appear to be a non-contender in 2015.

And non-contenders aren’t ideal destinations for guys like Adam LaRoche on two-year contracts. It seems like there are two rationalizations. One, even bad teams benefit from upgrading. You can’t just sit on all your money. The Astros, you’ll recall, gave three years to Scott Feldman. Why not invest in a better product? Why not make the team better, even if you aren’t going to win the World Series?

Then there’s the part where it’s not even December yet. Rick Hahn has earned the benefit of the doubt to some extent, and what isn’t clear yet is how he’s going to build this 2015 White Sox team. We don’t know what else he’s going to do, so we don’t know where this fits into the plan. The Zach Duke pick-up seemed sneaky-smart. There’s obviously talent around, in the persons of Abreu, Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and the imminent Carlos Rodon. The White Sox aren’t so far away that they can’t be all right, and we should give them the chance to improve the rotation and the outfield. Rebuilds don’t have to take forever, and the White Sox already have a core.

So if you squint, you can understand the thought process. Maybe the White Sox take a big step forward. Or maybe they just end up making LaRoche available in July or next December. The worst-case scenario is that the White Sox are out some millions of dollars during years in which they don’t contend anyway. There is one other thing I have to question here, though. The White Sox wanted to add some left-handed power. They gave $25 million to Adam LaRoche. The A’s paid almost nothing to acquire Ike Davis, who doesn’t even have an obvious spot on the team. Let’s do a simple comparison:

2012 – 2014

LaRoche: 119 wRC+
Davis: 105

2012 – 2014, vs. righties

LaRoche: 131 wRC+
Davis: 123

2015, projected

LaRoche: 116 wRC+
Davis: 117

Adam LaRoche, lately, has been a better hitter than Ike Davis. But he’s also more than seven years older, and they project to be the same, and Davis didn’t require an eight-figure, two-year commitment. The White Sox are paying a relative premium, then, for what they perceive to be greater consistency. Also, I’m sure they’re buying LaRoche’s various clubhouse benefits. Yet I wonder if a team in their position might be better suited taking a shot on cheaper upside. The Red Sox thought they were buying consistency before A.J. Pierzynski fell apart. LaRoche is no sure thing, and Davis wouldn’t have been too much worse of a gamble.

But, probably, Davis would just be fine. LaRoche will probably just be fine, for more money, and the White Sox probably won’t win the World Series with him on the club. Yet with him on the club, the White Sox will hit better than they have, and they’ll play better than they have, and LaRoche is one of baseball’s more extreme fly-ball hitters, so he should enjoy playing his home games that aren’t bone-chilling cold. I like a lot of what Rick Hahn has done. I like this move less than other moves, but if LaRoche ends up a waste of, I don’t know, even $10 – 15 million, that shouldn’t have a meaningful impact on the organization’s overall progress. Sometimes you just have to make even a mediocre team better.