Yankees Bomb Red Sox Out of the Bronx, Postseason
NEW YORK — Lefty? Righty? The platoon-heavy Yankees will beat your frontline starter regardless of handedness, and their frontline starter will shut your offense down. That was the case, at least, in this year’s Wild Card Series between the Yankees and the Red Sox. After fireballing righty Cam Schlittler overwhelmed Boston in Tuesday night’s opener, lefty Max Fried stifled the Sox for six innings on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a lineup stacked with eight lefty hitters — and again, no Aaron Judge — pressed Red Sox manager Chad Tracy to pull starter Sonny Gray after just 70 pitches, trailing 1-0. As on Tuesday night, the Yankees broke the game open against Boston’s lefty relievers. New York cruised to a 9-2 victory and a series sweep.
As he did in Game 1 of the 2025 Wild Card Series against the Red Sox, Fried pitched brilliantly. He held Boston scoreless through the first five innings on just two hits before allowing a solo home run to Willson Contreras with two outs in the sixth. It wasn’t just Boston’s first home run of the series, it was the team’s first run in a playoff game since the sixth inning of Game 2 of last year’s series, a span of 26 2/3 innings. Fried struck out six while walking one; though he got just nine whiffs (18.8%) and a 23.5% called strike and whiff rate, he allowed just three hard-hit balls and an average exit velocity of 85.3 mph. He threw 98 pitches, and when the Yankees broke through for six runs in the bottom of the sixth inning, it was an easy call for manager Aaron Boone to go to his bullpen.
With Judge sidelined by a right calf strain, the Yankees opted to carry 16 position players and just 10 pitchers for the best-of-three series. Particularly given Boston’s lefty-heavy pitching staff, this roster construction allowed the Yankees to counter by platooning at four positions. Against lefty Payton Tolle, the only lefties in the New York lineup were Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger,Spencer Jones, and Austin Wells, but against Gray, Boone plugged in Luis Garcia Jr. for Paul Goldschmidt at first base, Jazz Chisholm Jr. for Anthony Volpe at second base, Trent Grisham in center for Heliot Ramos in right (with Jones shifting from center to right), and Ryan McMahon for Amed Rosario at third base. All four contributed to the Yankees’ 14-hit attack, with García going 3-for-5, including a solo homer off Gray; Chisholm 2-for-3 with a walk, two stolen bases, and two runs scored; Grisham 2-for-3 with a pivotal bunt single, a walk, and a run scored; and McMahon 1-for-3 with an RBI groundout. Bellinger went 2-for-4 with an RBI single, against a lefty, and a three-run homer off righty Garrett Whitlock, and Wells drove in a pair of runs on a single and sacrifice fly.
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
A good day for the parish.
Cheers to financial flexibility.
As I’m sure plenty will point out: The difference in how each team got to end the season (Yankees getting an lighter/day off on Sunday, Boston doing a doubleheader then flying to Tampa, then flying to NYC for the series) should serve as a reminder that the extended playoffs suck but “more baseball is good for revenue!”
Good point. In a world with the correct number of playoff teams Boston and Chicago could have just canceled the game due to both being eliminated by that point.
Out of curiosity, what do you feel the correct number of playoff teams should be? The Red Sox had the third best record in the AL. In a 15-team league, having no more than two qualify seems a stretch by modern standards.
I would make it 2 8-team divisions in each league (after 2 expansion teams), then the division winner and top 3 wild cards (regardless of division) get in. Wild card 2 and 3 play each other in a 3-game series to get in to the “real” playoffs.
That’s 10 out of 32 team getting in, just slightly less than the 12 out of 30 that get in now.
This is also predicated on a completely balanced schedule, at least in each league.
The 3rd best team in the Division should not qualify.
Particularly when they finish more than 5 games behind the 2nd team.
Why does the division matter?
I have come to the conclusion that the ideal setup is about 35-40% of teams making the playoffs. That is about right for making sure all the real contenders get in but excludes most of the “just happy to be there” types.
14 teams would be a decent setup for a 32 team league. With 30 the chances you have a team that doesn’t deserve to be there is pretty high, but I think it’s pretty close to a threshold where even a couple extra teams would make a difference.
Because of the ridiculous nature of AL West this year and the AL Central in previous years I would go to two divisions in each league with the winners getting byes. With 36 teams I think 3 divisions would work better.
In what way did those two teams not deserve to make the playoffs? Esp the sox having the 3rd best record in AL
The idea of playoffs began because of the argument that the schedule wasn’t perfectly fair. Different divisions play different schedules.
Having a wild card team play another wild card team from the same division in the first round when they are separated by more games than the series length feels stupid.
The best teams should make the playoffs.
The disconnect for me, in terms of making them play the games is that they have decided that it’s not worth anyone’s time to play an extra game to break end-of-season ties. However, they are willing to ship teams down to Florida during a nor-easter to determine the seeding in the postseason.
That said, the Yankees thoroughly destroyed the Red Sox and there’s no reason to think anything different would have happened.
Tbf, both games were 1 run games in the 5/6th inning. It really was just middle reliever meltdowns for the Sox
Also, if you’re going to bring up the Red Sox playing a doubleheader on Friday, you should also point out the Yankees played a doubleheader on Friday as well.
Didn’t know you could score runs by pulling your starter too early. Interesting.
As a Red Sox fan, this was a brutal end to a promising season. The Sox were outplayed and out-managed, and it wasn’t close. But it could have been. Or at least a little closer, had Tracy stuck with Tolle and Gray longer than he did. I understand it’s third time through the lineup, and that was the logic. However, a manager should recognize when a pitcher is getting plenty of outs and appears to be in a groove, that it makes sense to leave him out there longer (as Boone did with his starters).
The Red Sox approach to hitting is frustrating to watch. Swinging out of their heels at every pitch thrown, regardless of type of pitch or location. There are a couple of batters in the lineup with a smidge of patience, but by and large they aren’t a patient group, and get themselves out frequently.
It’s hard to fathom this is the same squad that had a best-in-125 years (or something) 35-game stretch from beginning of July to early August. We have seen what they can do, and it’s glorious when it clicks.
I’ll go against the grain and say pulling Gray was defensible. Giving up a smattering of singles and a towering solo shot, followed by facing the lineup the third time around with a loss sending you home? A lot of starters have gone off the rails in exactly the same manner, and Tracy was just trying to get ahead of the curve.
I wouldn’t have done it, but it’s defensible, that’s true. But why bring in Miller? Twice? And then bring in Crochet over someone like Bennett? Craaaazy
Their lineup is decimated by injuries. Anthony, Yoshida, Gasper, and others are out. Durbin has not hit the ball hard since reinjuring his finger. Contreras, Rutschman, Mead, and Rafaela are not 100 percent. The starting lineup in a playoff game included Eaton, Sogard, and Jones. It wasn’t their approach, it was the personnel.
Stuff can be two things. The only guy who looked like he had a consistent approach at the plate was Rutschman.
Eaton and Sogard combined for half the Sox’ XBH in the series; seems weird to single them out.
Eaton also made a spectacular throw to nail Ben Rice at the plate (before the game got truly out of hand)
Outfield assists are always exciting, but it was far from spectacular. It’s the kind of play you would expect an average or better outfielder to make.
I’m not sure how I singled them out, given that they were part of a list of several players.
The Red Sox just finished one of the weirder seasons I can remember. Bad teams don’t go 32-5… but good teams don’t go 55-70 for four and a half months, either… right?
The quotes from the Red Sox players after the game are a doozy – they didn’t understand Tracy’s moves, and Tracy wasn’t even able to give convincing explanations for them himself.
I wonder how different ownership’s reaction to this season would have been if they won 87 wins in a more normal way. On the surface, finishing in third place, only seeing one real breakout performance (Tolle), and having no home playoff games for the fifth straight year is a tremendous disappointment. But this team gave Red Sox fans one of the most magical summers they’re ever likely to see, and that’s what people remember.
I think ownership sees this season as generally successful and would feel the same way if they won 87 games without the magical 32-5 stretch. They hired Breslow after 3 last place finishes in 4 years. They were .500 in his first season then made the playoffs each of the last two years. They might even view it more favorably without the streak, which may be seen as kind of a fluke.
If you take a step back, the Redsox had the 4th best WAR in baseball and the 2nd best run diff. in the AL
This was a very good team that just underperformed in the first few months of the season (and overperormed after it to make up for it)
In total though, they are a standard playoff team
This right here. They were a good team, made the playoffs despite a ton of injuries, and also managed to add players in season that will be useful next year (Mead, Rutschman, and Miller). Of course they view the season as a success
Only one real breakout performance!!!!!??? Jake Bennett????? Tyron Guerrero???? Mickey Gasper putting up a 130 WRC+? Caleb Durbin validating his performance last year? Rafaela improving on offense? Abreu validating his performance last year and improving against lefties? Gray possibly having a career year? Contreras possibly having a career year? I mean sheesh how high are your expectations?
Nick Sogard put up 1 WAR in 50 games too!
Bennett looks like a damn good mid-rotation starter – great trade.
Contreras was awesome.
Otherwise:
Rafaela had a great year…but none of the underlying stats indicate anything underlying improvement driving the high BABIP.
Gray had a great year…but certainly not a career year by literally any version of WAR.
Durbin and Abreu are nice players who continued to be nice players.
And then you have a bunch of AAAA guys who played out of their minds for a bit.
4 Sox position players cracked 1.5 WAR this year.
Tbf Rafaela has ~4 War projections. So I would say repeating his 2025 “breakout” is a good thing. He’s looks like a legit 3-4 war guy which is nice.
Everything about this disaster for the Red Sox was foreseeable. Gray’s successful regular season was a mirage, as his strikeout rate had collapsed to his lowest mark since 2016, while he ranked highest in amount of pulled contact and third worst in soft contact induced amongst qualified starting pitchers. Removing him at the first sign of trouble made sense if the team had a deep and reliable bullpen, but the only relief help Breslow added was a guy with two functional pitches and terrible command of each. Following that with someone who hadn’t appeared in a game since April was a mystifying display of incompetence.
Meanwhile, a lineup that had the second lowest runs scored through the end of June somehow became even more impotent in September. Their 71 runs scored last month wasn’t just last in the majors, it was as far from Philadelphia’s second worst mark of 89 as the Phillies were from the league median.
The Red Sox have the best bullpen. However, a strength can be a weakness if relied upon too much…
Chapman and Whitlock have been great. They don’t have anyone reliable beyond those two.
And Whitlock didn’t exactly acquit himself too well last night.
I mean Guerrero, Miller, and Slaten are quite good for your middle reliever.
2 of them where hurt however
Gray’s successful season was a mirage but they should have left him in unless they had a great bullpen to come in?
Yes. Or better yet, Breslow should have done more to address the bullpen at the deadline. Miller was a half measure. They let themselves believe that Bello’s performance as a reliever was real when his 3.78 xERA in relief said that it wouldn’t last.
Certainly doesn’t help that Anthony got hurt, they didn’t have Mead or Gasper, and Contreras/Rafaela were playing through injury
Sure, but their lineup was terrible the entire season aside from a forty day stretch during the summer.
About league average but that was never their strength. Pitching + defense w an average offense was their bread and butter and lead to the 4th best WAR in ball
No, the lineup was genuinely terrible outside of that summer hot streak. They had the second lowest runs scored in MLB through the end of June and had the lowest runs scored by far of any team in September.
They were 17th in wRC+ and 15th in wOBA for the full season. Pretty average
And even if you take out the streak, they were at a ~93 wRC+ and 1.8 WAR/650.
Below average, but nothing nightmarish.
Only the Angels, Phillies, Rockies, and Reds were below 93. Boston has the pitching and defense covered but they definitely need to add a middle of the order hitter this winter.
I completely agree…and I doubt they will.
Maybe the Giants would be open to trading Devers. A consistent 135 wRC+ guy like that is exactly what the Red Sox need, and I imagine that he would do pretty well in Fenway.
Oooh, great shout.
And have you seen his splits at DH?
If they tell him to put his glove away and just focus on hitting, that would be a perfect fit.
What do you think a trade package would look like?
Even with the contract, you’re not going to get a hitter of Raffy’s caliber for a Durbin type.
I’d say this with any wildcard series. I’m not a fan of a best of thee. I think 5 works a lot better and gives both teams a chance to play at minimum 1 game at home.
Bunting and stealing bases??? These aren’t the Bronx Bombers that I remember. And I’m okay with that.
Weird stuff happens over 2 games of baseball. In addition to the hard-hit balls, there were a couple of dinks that helped the Yanks advance. The Crochet/Jones PA was the pivotal moment — it was the card that Tracy desperately wanted to play, but there wasn’t a good clean inning to do it in until then. And when Jones predictably struck out, it seemed like it might work, but Jones was basically running as he was swinging.
And once Rutschman sailed the throw on the steal attempt, it felt like the wheels were coming off for them.
Based on the way this game played out, I’m now more convinced than ever that Stanton actually was a bluff — which, honestly, was a better use of the 26th slot than Tim Hill or Santos or whoever. Despite the HR he gave up, Warren’s stuff definitely looked like it was playing up out of the pen.
It might be the first time I’ve ever said this, but Aaron Boone managed magnificently — he trusted his best players (the SP, Rice, Bellinger), and they rewarded him. I thought he maybe could have pulled Fried in the 6th (his command was absolutely faltering), but that’s a pretty minor quibble, all things considered.
I feel for Tracy a bit. The “when do I pull the starter? wait for him to get in trouble and potentially lose the game, or pull him early when things are going well in anticipation of that” has to be the hardest decision managers make on a near daily basis. As with everything in baseball, there’s some luck involved – e.g. like you said the wheels could have easily come off for Fried in the 6th as Boone did the opposite of Tracy.
That said I think Boone managed well but don’t think many of the decisions were that hard. It’s a lot easier to give your left-handed hitters a shot vs. lefty pitchers when you’re up by a bunch of runs – e.g. he was never in a real position to have to decide to hit Stanton for Wells in a tied game in the 7th.
Totally agree about Stanton. Because of the makeup of the pen (2 starters, one basically starter, and one former starter) and the short series they had roster spots to play with. I think he either was a decoy (I think Judge should have been on the roster over Rosario for the same reason) or since he wasn’t really needed they didn’t want to risk an injury.
So I think Judge wouldn’t be convincing as a decoy, because if he was able to be on the roster at all, he’d be in the lineup. Stanton works perfectly because it’s completely reasonable to assume that Stanton would basically be there for one shot.
I expected it when the Sox brought in Crochet when it was 2-1 Yanks — for Spencer Jones — but Boone either showed a hell of a lot of trust in Jones or it never really was a consideration.
Pinch hitting for Jones vs a lefty is absolutely out of the discussion. In one of the most unexpected reverse platoons you’ll see, he has a 210 wRC+ against lefties and an 80 wRC+ against righties. I don’t expect this to continue next season, but, for now, this is what it is.
You don’t think he’s actually prime Barry Bonds against lefties? Scorcher of a hot take
For whatever reason it’s happening, it still is happening. So ride it until it’s no longer a thing.
Nevertheless, Spencer Jones isn’t getting pinch hit for.
Aaron Judge had a 211 wRC+ over the previous two years.
Just wanted to throw that out there.
I don’t think leaking that “Judge can swing the bat fine but his running is limited and he risks further injury by doing it” is unreasonable at all.
And to be a jerk, the most enjoyable moment of last night’s game was when they cut to the booth in the 7th, and Merloni looked absolutely crushed. I had to turn the sound off halfway through the game, because I got real tired of him specifically. Girardi was a delight as always, the PBP was pretty good, and Rizzo’s pretty awesome, but man, Merloni was insufferable.
Agreed. Benetti was the PbP & as a Detroit fan that gets to listen to him, 120x per year, he is a delight.
I particuarly enjoyed Girardi’s take on when he pulls the SP as they approach their 3rd time through the order & what he looks for when making the decision. It was a very insightful discussion.
Benetti has gotten kind of smarmy and a little too impressed with how clever he is. He could ease off about 25% and be a lot better.
That’s a fair point. Listening to him so much, I am kind of used to it. I also love the dad jokes, bad puns, etc., so this could be a YMMV deal.
Could totally see someone who doesn’t like that much “shtick” finding it to be too much.
Girardi does get some stuff wrong (mainly more recent factual stuff) but in general having the perspective of a former manager is great. And he’s got a strange combination of both a little bit of attitude and humility that makes him really fun to listen to.
Between Girardi & Cone, the YES analyst team is an embarasment of riches.
And also Paul O’Neill, who’s just an embarrasment.
Benetti is excellent. I do think nbc really should hire a color commentator instead of the two local announcers because more often than not it’s been bad. The Phillies/Braves series has been the only good series and the announcing other than Votto has been bad. I have no idea why they hired Matt Vasgerin(sp) he sucks!
I can’t disagree more about the local announcers. (Although I’ve only been watching the Phillies/Braves series). It’s refreshing to hear the color commenters invested in what’s going on instead of sounding bored, and actually knowledgeable about the team they are covering. I’d rather hear just my opposition’s local announcers than the national color commentators we usually get for playoff games.
You don’t like Merloni? You must hate fun! What a dork.
I can see why Bostonians might like him, but definitely a tough listen otherwise.
I don’t necessarily have a problem with a quick hook but if anything, bringing in Miller to face Bellinger with two lefties due up after him was a half-measure. Considering the situation–down 1-0 with runners on and your offense looking lifeless for 14 innings–if you’re going to pull Gray, then the move in that spot is to bring in Chapman, not Miller.
Bringing Chapman in early means you don’t have him available to face Rice in a hypothetical close-and-late situation, but you have to keep the game close to even be in that situation in the first place. The Sox were probably never going to win with the bats as quiet as they were, but Chapman keeping the deficit at 1 run and likely pitching through the 6th would’ve given them a puncher’s chance.
Or Bennet. Or if you think Crochet is up to pitching in a close game, bring him in there.
Yeah, but who else could have pitched the 8th when they were down by 7?
Bringing in Miller to face Bellinger at all is insane behaviour – he smokes LHP and has for years!
The Crochet move was just kind of baffling in the moment. This is a guy who hadn’t pitched in a professional game since April, and was having some real out-of-character troubles then. Crochet actually didn’t even look too bad and had some bad luck/defense, but the move honestly raised my eyebrows more than pulling Gray.
As others have stated, it may not have mattered with how Boston was swinging the lumber this series anyway. 2 runs on 7 hits in two games just ain’t going to cut it.
It reminds me of when Mike Matheny, one of the worst in game managers of a “successful” team that I can remember, bought in Michael Wacha to face the giants after a long layoff and he immediately got blown up.
I still think every so often that the Cardinals very possibly would have won another World Series in that era if not for Matheny. Three straight NLCS berths, one World Series, all of which were close enough that a better in game manager plausibly could have swung the result. He was so, so bad!
Highest-leverage inning for the Red Sox all series and you put in somebody who hasn’t pitched in five months and has never thrown to his catcher in a real game. Just wild.
It was wild. Crochet didn’t pitch too badly, but it was wild. Did Tracy forget Bennett existed? Bring in Bennett for 1-2 innings, send Suarez out there for Game 3 if you make it that far, and then have Bello and Bennett piggy back in Game 1 of the ALDS if you make it thaaat far. Right? Wouldn’t this have made more sense?
Game 2 Bennett in relief over Crochet
Game 3 Suarez
Game 1 Bello/Bennett
Game 2 Tolle
Game 3 Gray
Game 4 Suarez
Game 5 Bennett
If Tracy brings in Bennett, and he does anything other than pitch a scoreless inning, he gets cooked for putting a rookie in such a high leverage situation and for putting Crochet on the roster at all.
I thought the Rutschman trade was a vast overpay at the time and it’s even more clear now. He impressed me with his long 1st inning at-bats vs. both Schlittler and Fried, but I was shocked at how poor his defense was, from throwing errors to inability to block balls in the dirt, to non-challenges on clear (completely within the zone) strikes that were called balls. Some of the non-competitive throws on stolen bases may have been on the pitcher, and maybe I was unfairly expecting more based on how good he was supposed to be, but that was pretty pitiful.
Not that it would have made a difference in the outcome but the Sox would have likely been better off with Narvaez or Wong in there.
Massive small sample overreaction. Rutschman was near the top of the league in blocking, throwing, framing, and challenges. He’s a top 3-5 defensive catcher.
Rutschman did a fine job blocking Crochet’s wild pitch (that was a wiiiild pitch) and still would have gotten the out at 1B if Contreras had stood at the front of the bag and stretched. I can’t think of another passed ball.
His throw to 2nd actually wasn’t terrible. It wasn’t great, but it wasn’t massively off the mark and could have been prevented from going into the OF if the runner wasn’t *right* there blocking Sogard from moving further to his left.
He did miss a couple challengeable pitches but I suspect they were saving challenges for the offense because they were struggling so much on that side of the ball
I’ll admit my comment about blocking balls in the dirt was biased by the strikeout. And fair point about Contreras. But 1) he blocked it straight on – generally catchers will be moving with the pitch as they smother it, 2) he kind of froze for a split second after blocking it, and 3) he double clutched a bit (not exactly and it’s a little hard to see as the broadcast switched angles right then, but he kind of took an extra hop which delayed the throw). Add it all up and it was a play that definitely should have been made, especially for a guy as heralded as he is which is my main point.
For the challenges, at least one was so obviously a strike. I get it about saving challenges but that one just showed an unawareness of the strike zone.
Maybe it is just a small sample size and my first sentence about the trade being bad in general isn’t fair, but the main point was that he was extremely unimpressive in these 2 critical games.
Rutschman has been 85th percentile or better in blocks above average every season except 2025. His throw delay was due to Contreras being so late in moving toward the bag.
Contreras was about 3 feet away from the bag while Adley was doing his little dance.
You say tomato, I say multiple mistakes in a do-or-die game from a guy who fetched by far the biggest package at the trade deadline and is nothing more than a league average hitter.
I am looking at the replay right now as I respond to you. Between the time that Rutschman picks up the ball and the throw gets to first, Contreras takes seven steps. Contreras takes two of those steps in the time that it takes Rutschman to pull back his arm to make the throw, leaving five additional steps before the ball finally gets to first. So no, he was not just “3 feet away.” That delay in covering the bag is also presumably why he did not stretch to receive the throw.
Moreover, there is no “little dance.” Rutschman doesn’t even double clutch. You’re making things up in order to defend your initial statement instead of just admitting that the fault on this play was entirely attributable to Contreras. The angle from behind the plate shows that Sogard is already in right field to back up the throw before Contreras ever gets to first base. There is no excuse for that.
Did you see Wong catch at the end of the season? He repeatedly dropped routine pitches.
We can discuss managerial decisions until Opening Day 2027 but none of them make a difference when the Yankees scored 18 runs and the Red Sox got 7 hits. The Red Sox have some real question marks about where the offense is going to come from next year. I may not be the first to say this but I have serious doubts whether Anthony is actually going to amount to much. Lots of K’s and lots of grounders to 2nd do not make for a star. I have to hope that Arias is the next Lindor, providing power and defense. I want Sogard to play 2nd but Mead might be the right-hand power bat that they need desperately. The Rutschman trade looks worse every day and the pitching, which looked so good during the run, needs solidifying. Crochet is no guarantee to be the same as 2025. Beyond him I only see Tolle, Suarez and Bennett as starters now on the roster. Chapman has a mutual option but probably stays. Whitlock is as good as it gets in the 8th and the rest is like all bullpens, a complete mystery. There are lots of holes and an off-season to move the chairs.
I think that’s a reasonable take — discussing the managerial decisions feels a bit superfluous when the bullpen absolutely imploded.
I feel for Anthony — clearly something’s significantly not right there, and they seem to be having trouble pinning down why he’s struggling to get right physically. Would really hate to see him derailed by injury.
Lots of holes? I feel like this is one of the teams with the fewest holes in baseball. They could make no moves this offseason and still be a top 8 team by run differential again next year. Their rotation, infield, outfield, and bullpen are nearly filled out. Swapping out Story for Arias is an easy upgrade and they will surely add some pieces in free agency and via trade.
As is:
C: Rutschman
1B: Contreras
2B: Mead
SS: Arias
3B: Durbin
RF: Abreu
CF: Rafaela
LF: Anthony
DH: Yoshida
B: Wong
B: Duran
B: Story
B: Gasper
SP: Crochet
SP: Tolle
SP: Suarez
SP: Bennett
SP: Bello
RP: Chapman
RP: Whitlock
RP: Slaten
RP: Miller
RP: Guerrero
RP: Weissert
RP: Moran
RP: Oviedo
Minor League Depth:
Gonzalez, Sogard, Siegler, Eaton, Campbell, Houck, Crawford, Olds, Gamboa
They could stand to upgrade at DH and in the 5th slot in the rotation. But those are two of the easiest positions to fill/upgrade! There are so many incredible SP options in free agency this offseason
Yeah feels like DH is only hole, and even then Gasper had a 130 wRC+ (not sure how real, but thats not nothing)
Otherwise, OF/C/1B are strong. 3B is solid. SS/2B are questions but you have 60 FV Arias right there, Mead who had a 130 wRC+, and Stroy/Sogard as deph.
They need another bad, but its pretty hard finding a spot, assuming you want to give Arias and Mead plenty of PA
Splurging on a hitter (Randy, Seiya) and playing him at DH is prob not great asset wise, but might be most viable way to add offense
That’s a below average lineup even if you buy Mead’s breakout and think that Anthony will finally be healthy. If one of those isn’t true then it’s a bottom ten lineup. If both aren’t true then it’s a bottom five lineup.
Especially since Mead is a DH.
I don’t know what to make of Mead at second base, as he looks like a butcher to me, but he’s a scratch defender according to both DRS and OAA. I do fully expect the Red Sox to play him at second given that Breslow wanted Kristian Campbell there when he was very obviously incapable of playing that position.
He’s so bad on the corners that I have to assume the 2B numbers are a function of the small sample size.
Good kid, fun story…I think there’s a massive chance he’s a 115 wRC+ DH.
Mead is a DH with a career wRC+ of 99.
Arias is a prospect.
Contreras will be 35.
Anthony has yet to play a full season.
Crochet did his shoulder after a career high in IP.
But yeah:
Rafaela, Tolle, and Suarez are 4 WAR guys
Rutschman, Abreu, Bennett, and Durbin are 3 WAR guys.
Chapman is a monster.
I fully expect them to run it back, win ~85 games, and lose in the WC series again next year.
Kennedy will be thrilled.
Contreras is 35 so he doesn’t count in the 3 or 4 WAR bucket, gotcha. Crochet has injury risk so he’s assumed to put up 0 WAR too. Gotcha. And Anthony and Arias get 0 WAR as well, huh? And Mead is clearly a 0 despite a 130 WRC+ last year and formerly being a top prospect.
Even if we assume all 5 of those high upside guys put up 0 WAR, you say that they still have three definite 4 WAR guys and four definite 3 WAR guys (24 WAR). On top of that they will have an elite pen (+4 WAR at least) and whoever they add via trade or free agency before the season.
Are you hearing yourself? You just proved my point. They’ve got an incredible foundation, annnnd high upside guys to propel them, and the opportunity to improve in the offseason
You shouldn’t put him in the 3 to 4 WAR bucket because he’s played eleven seasons and only registered 3 or more fWAR in two of those eleven. Expecting him to do it again at age 35 would be unreasonable. It’s more reasonable to expect his usual ~2.5 fWAR and a ~125 wRC+.
I like Arias a lot. I would be really surprised if he was another Mayer like disappointment, but I would also be surprised if he was immediately a 3+ fWAR player. I think something around a ~110 wRC+ is likely. Then we all know that Anthony can put up great offensive numbers but we also know that he’s made of glass.
You can’t just ignore that Mead was terrible for the Rays and White Sox because you want to believe that his performance for the Nationals was real. Maybe he can sustain that level, but skepticism is obviously warranted.
Are you hearing yourself? The things you’re saying to CLS are not rational, they’re emotional. You’re looking at the team as a fan rather than as an analyst.
He also really didn’t read what I wrote, haha.
I wasn’t calling any of the high variance lads 0 WAR types – just saying they’re not sure things.
Tbf I think that’s part of the variance. mead/arias both are exiting but low floor in different ways
Roman/Corchet have the upside
I think Adley is better than 3 war… he put up 3 war in 100 games, but it’s fair
They have upside, but they are lacking in safe-star players. They could really use a “pencil it in” 5 war player. Maybe that’s Anthony or Arias. Maybe not
Fully agree – I think they’re an 85-win true talent roster with massive error bars…and we saw both extremes over the first four months!
The precise thing they’re missing to move from frisky to dangerous is a Bregman or a Devers.
Feels a lot like Anthony is a “too strong for his body” type whose chronic injuries are going to cause him to underperform. The upside is there but if he’s never totally healthy he won’t get there.
My favorite postmortem of these games is when the losing team’s players/fans blame “the nerds” or the losing team’s reliance on advanced stats and “computers”, as if the winning teams are not using those methods in an at least equal or sometimes better way.
It’s brutal.
The best part is that any nerd would know better than to send Miller out against Bellinger!