Yankees, Brewers Swap Fun All-Star Pitchers, Everyone Wins

It’s a ritual as old as time. The Brewers develop an intriguing young player into an All-Star, and a fun one at that. Next, that player approaches free agency – that’s how time works. The Brewers then trade that player to a contending team, getting back a few players with multiple years of team control. Finally, the Brewers develop those players into stars, spin the wheel again, and the band plays on. Today’s edition: Milwaukee traded Devin Williams to the Yankees in exchange for Nestor Cortes and infield prospect Caleb Durbin, as Jeff Passan first reported.
Williams is the rare pitcher who isn’t even as famous as his best pitch. His screwball/changeup hybrid is nicknamed The Airbender, and it’s been making major leaguers look like overmatched kids for years. On the back of that pitch and a plus fastball, he’s compiled a career ERA of 1.83 over five-plus seasons of dominance. His 39.4% career strikeout rate reads like a typo. He rose to prominence during the 2020 season, and he’s been the second-best reliever in baseball since then, trailing only Emmanuel Clase.
It doesn’t matter what you call the pitch; Williams’ results speak for themselves. “Changeup-first dominant closer” only sounds fluky until you look at the raw data. He misses more bats than Josh Hader. He might even be better than his run-prevention numbers would suggest, because the runs he gives up come in bunches. In 2023, for example, he gave up 10 earned runs all year, and four were in a single game. The upshot: He’s first among relievers in win probability added by a ton, because a truly outrageous number of his games end in scoreless innings. He’s not Mariano Rivera, but he might be the closest thing in today’s game: an automatic ninth inning.
Williams was available because he’ll reach free agency after the 2025 season. The Brewers love building elite bullpens, but they’re notably frugal in the way they go about it. Their payroll hovers around $120 million, and he’ll fetch something in the neighborhood of $20 million per year (deservedly so!) when every team can bid on his services next winter. He’s a true rental – he just happens to be so good that the Yankees surrendered two interesting players for one year of relief pitching anyway.
Cortes, like Williams, is going to be a free agent after the 2025 season. Like Williams, he doesn’t operate like most other pitchers. But where Williams has an incomparable breaking pitch as his one weird trick, Cortes is all funk. He changes speeds and throws five or six different pitches, depending on what classification system you like. He varies his delivery endlessly, sometimes within an at-bat. He disrupts timing and uses elite command to avoid walks.
It doesn’t look like it should work, but it does. In his four-year stint with the Yankees from 2021-24, he’s compiled a 3.33 ERA, 3.68 FIP, and racked up 9.4 WAR despite intermittent injury problems. No one feels comfortable during a Cortes start, from opposing batters to his own team’s fans. He’s perpetually walking a tightrope to get hitters out with so-so raw stuff – and he manages that balancing act at a remarkable frequency.
Durbin, the second player Milwaukee got for Williams, is a weirdo in his own right. He’s 5’6” and, to quote Eric Longenhagen, “built like a size extra small Tyler O’Neill.” His career path – record-setting high school wrestler, Division III baseball standout, late-round draft pick included as a lottery ticket in a trade for a reliever – is right out of central casting. I’m going to liberally borrow from Eric’s notes here to paint a picture, but keep this in mind as I do: There’s a faint whiff of magical realism to Durbin, like he exists in a world similar to but not quite like ours.
Durbin torched the mid-level minors in 2023 after being acquired from the Braves for Lucas Luetge after the 2022 season. He broke his wrist in 2024 and played in only 90 games as a result – but he hit a scorching .287/.396/.471 in those games, walked more often than he struck out, and stole 29 bags while getting caught just three times. He did it while playing solid defense at second and third, as well as in-case-of-emergency defense at shortstop and in the outfield.
He succeeds in roughly the way you’d expect. He makes a ton of contact, particularly in the zone, thanks to a compact swing that punishes pitches up in the zone. There’s a ton of lift and pull to his game, and his excellent bat control helps him stay out in front, even against good opposing pitches. The exit velo numbers weren’t great in 2024, but wrist injuries often sap power for a while even after players return from them, so it’s reasonable to project some improvement in that area next year.
That kind of approach has its limits. It would be wildly irresponsible to project above-average power production at the major league level from a 5’6” batter until we’ve seen far more evidence that he can keep it up. But he checks enough boxes offensively that I’d be very interested in finding out how it works in the big leagues, because he has a lot of skills you can’t teach: bat control, command of the strike zone, and an ability to identify and attack pitches that he can damage.
Defense will be crucial to the whole package here. Eric likes his defense at second and third, though he’s less optimistic about his ability to handle short. Durbin might not have the raw speed to handle center, but he has great baseball instincts and solid acceleration, as you can see from his superlative baserunning bona fides. In Milwaukee’s outfield, he’ll never sniff center anyway, and he’s a good righty option in either corner. He also looks like a nice platoon partner for Brice Turang at second. Here’s some video of Durbin in AFL action this year, courtesy of Longenhagen.
All three players in this trade feel like they could be characters in a baseball movie. Williams succeeds with a one-of-one pitch with a killer moniker. Cortes doesn’t look like a good big league pitcher, but he’s succeeded anyway thanks to his willingness to use every trick in the book at the drop of a hat. Durbin feels improbable across the board – the path to prominence, the body type, just everything imaginable. If you wanted to make an Ocean’s Eleven-style heist movie with baseball players, all three of these guys would fit the bill thanks to their eccentricities and strengths.
The actual trade, though? It’s right down the middle, standard stuff for both the Brewers and the Yankees. The whole point of having a New York-level budget is that instead of going for guys like Cortes, who can emulate Max Fried-level production if everything goes right, you can just go sign Max Fried. Even after trading Cortes, the Yankees have a jam-packed rotation; Clarke Schmidt projects as their sixth starter, and I’d be comfortable if not overjoyed to start him in a playoff game.
Likewise, Durbin is an intriguing player and someone you’d love to have as a utility option at the league minimum – but the Yankees don’t need to pay the league minimum, and in the tail end of Aaron Judge’s prime, they want sure more than league-minimum value at most positions. Oswaldo Cabrera isn’t all that different from Durbin in terms of overall utility and value, even if he gets there in a different way.
Williams, on the other hand, lets the Yankees play the way they want to. Manager Aaron Boone likes to use his bullpen aggressively in high-stakes games, and freeing up Luke Weaver to operate as a fireman will make that unit even deadlier. Williams is the best there is at his position, and the Yankees can either keep him around after this year or collect a compensation pick should he leave in free agency. He addresses a position of real weakness, and all he cost the Yankees was a free-agent-to-be starter for whom they were struggling to find space and a minor league utility infielder. This trade makes their big league team much better, and it likely won’t cost them much down the line.
Milwaukee is also getting exactly what it wants. Cortes is clearly not elite in the same way that Williams is, but he might suit the Brewers better, even in a one-for-one swap. They need starting pitching badly; even with Cortes in the mix, their rotation has plenty of question marks, most notably how many innings Brandon Woodruff will pitch. The Milwaukee bullpen was excellent in 2024 when Williams missed the first half of the season, and the organization’s development staff has done an incredible job finding and working with relievers to unlock new levels of skill. The Brewers are the exact kind of team that would prefer 160 good innings to 60 great ones.
Adding a utility infielder with six years of team control on top of that? That’s a classic Brewers move, and he even fits the roster well; they need an infielder who can cover second and third, they’d prefer him to be right-handed, and a little bit of outfield coverage wouldn’t hurt either. It would shock no one if Durbin turns in three or four league-average seasons as a Swiss army knife. This trade has a lot in common with the Corbin Burnes trade Milwaukee made last offseason – and the Josh Hader trade before that, and the Carlos Gómez trade before that, and, well, you get the idea.
In summary, this is the most win-win trade between contenders I’ve seen in quite a while. Everyone gets what they’re looking for here. Both teams improve their chances for 2025. Both rosters look better in their new configuration. All the players are fun. The only thing I don’t like about this trade is that I didn’t think it up myself. What a delight.
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.
Just about the fairest trade I’ve seen in a while. Although if I’m the Brewers I’m seeing what I can get for the starting pitchers (including Cortes) because the market is just crazy hot for them right now.
I’m a little skeptical of Caleb Durbin because there seem to be a ton of Yankees guys in AAA who are killing it and then fall on their face when they get to the majors. Probably there’s some disconnect between the performance in that stadium and what happens in major league stadiums. But certainly you would rather have someone who tore up AAA than someone who didn’t.
Every team has guys who tear up the minors and can’t hit in the majors. I don’t think the Yankees have had any more or less than other teams. Though I will say the AAA offensive environment is high across MLB due to ABS and the quirks that come along with it. But it’s not the PCL.
Maybe it’s just that Yankees prospects get more hype, but just in the past 8 years years, they have had a ton of guys who hit pretty well or very well in AAA and really fell off in the majors (with their wRC+, approximate for minors):
Not all of these guys were prospects, and Torres has been useful. Andujar’s flukey rookie year was clearly from the bouncy ball, Volpe was never as good of a hitter as we thought, and Jasson Dominguez still has plenty of time.
But other than Judge, Torres (kind of), and Volpe (kind of), what hitters have they developed into average or better regulars in the past 8 years or so?
Maybe every team has this but we just don’t hear about it as much?
Does Gary Sanchez count? Andujar was never the same after tearing his rotator cuff on a slide back to 3B and missing an entire season. It’s a little unfair to say the bouncy ball was the reason he never returned to a good player after having major surgery. Greg Bird had a million injuries. But that’s really besides the point. You can literally do this with every team. There’s a reason AAAA guy is a term. Sure the Yankees haven’t developed a bunch of good hitters, but they also draft at the end of every round and are always giving up picks to sign free agents.
Look at the Dodgers. They’re the premier franchise in MLB and who have they developed in the last 8 years? Will Smith? Alex Verdugo? That’s basically it. Gavin Lux hasn’t done much in MLB after destroying the minors. It’s simply not easy to develop good MLB hitters.
I think it bears mention that Volpe’s toolset and approach was BRUTAL for YSIII – kid was very much of the Bregman/Paredes archetype of yanking fly balls to left at medium exit velocities.
Also, there’s no “Kind of” about either Volpe or Torres being “better than average regulars.”
They are. Full stop.
True impact guys? No.
Some teams definitely have more than others, it is just a quirk of wRC+ at the minor league level because it is league-normed and not by stadium / team. A team that plays in a stadium that is far more hitter friendly than others in the same league will have a bunch of players who look much better than they really are.
The two teams where it’s really extreme are the D-Backs and A’s. They have upper level affiliates that are extremely hitter friendly. I never, ever trust the wRC+ listing for prospects at those systems (or the ERA / FIP for their pitchers, only xFIP). But I don’t think there are any more Triple-A teams in Colorado Springs, which was the most extreme of all of them.
He at least should be an upgrade over Monasterio as a RHH backup IF/platoon partner for Turang
He’s worse than Adames’s projection but not by that much. Plus his dimensions are fun
Great article, but as a Brewers fan I wouldn’t say Williams is an automatic 9th inning. Not after the 2024 playoffs.
small sample. Williams is elite.
Ah yes, let’s focus on a single game rather than this list…
Emmanuel Clase 289.1 – 8.5
Devin Williams 222 – 7.6
Raisel Iglesias 280 – 7.3
Edwin Díaz 204 – 7.0
That’s the top 4 relief pitchers in WAR from ’20-’24 and their innings pitched. Brewers fan? After the way you guys treated Counsell and now this I’m glad they’ve both moved on.
As a Brewers fan, I don’t claim him. There’s a lot of ignorant fans in every fan base who are quick to judge a guy off of a few appearances.
Agreed, from another Brewers fan. Yes, Devin blew it in almost improbable fashion; part of that scenario that you have to acknowledge is that it was only seemingly improbable because of how good he is. He had literally never given up an opposite-field home run before in his career. His changeup literally defies belief.
I like this trade, but I’m also going to really, really miss Williams.
Ain’t that the damn truth. I’ve had to withdraw from Cardinals social media fandom because they’re all a bunch of reactionary babies.
Clase also melted down in the playoffs last season but everybody would still want him on their team.
I’m nervous about Williams and his propensity to collapse in the playoffs and/or get drunk and punch a wall during a playoff clinching celebration, but not moreso than other relievers. I had to watch Holmes and Chapman close games for the Yankees, I’m immune to nerves.
I like to call him Devin “2 on, 2 out” Williams because he likes to do that a lot. Very good at getting out of jams like that but everyone gets burned sometimes. His ability to shut games down is just incredible though.
Whatever, I thought this was funny. Humor is hard on the internet but I don’t think this deserves the downvotes.
Who plays SS for the Brewers? Roster resource has Joey Ortiz, but is it actually Bryce Turang the one to move from 2B?
IMO Turang really only makes sense if he’s playing shortstop. He can really pick it but he doesn’t hit much.
He’s a bit like Andres Gimenez, although Gimenez is more likely to approximate a league-average batting line even if he won’t do it regularly.
Andres Gimenez should hit better in Toronto. Not to mention the “no Power” is bogus. He hit 15 and 17 Home Runs the 2 previous years and his strikeout rate keeps getting better and better. I always wonder if Turang will be platooned. I’d like Durbin to get 500 at bats but we shall see.
I’m still hoping he can somehow consistently be the player he was the first few months of 2022. If he could even be at the 110 wRC+ level or so, he would be so valuable.
Ortiz played SS on Adames off days. Turangs arm might be an issue at SS, its better to leave his platinum glove at 2B
Willy only missed one start. You’re not wrong, just saying.
Caleb Durbin facing Ryan Loutos in NL Central battles is going to get the Wash U alumni network fired up.
Turning a 36th round draft pick and a minor league signing of Lucas Luetge into a year with arguably the best reliever in baseball sounds pretty good.
This feels like a classic “surplus-for-surplus” deal. The Yankees didn’t need Cortes, and the Brewers didn’t need Williams, so they swapped them. Though I do think people are forgetting that Cortes had a flexor strain and basically admitted he was massively risking his elbow health by pitching in the World Series, so the risk is much higher on the Brewers’ side. If Cortes needs TJ and Durbin doesn’t pan out then they’ll have given up Williams for nothing.
You need more “if’s” in your analysis.
More like they’ll have given up 1 year of Williams and avoided having to pay him for Cortes and Durbin. I think the Yankees are also, for some reason, sending cash to Milwaukee as well. Not sure why, maybe the Yankees wanted to sweeten the deal to prevent Williams from falling into the hands of the Dodgers, but they are.
There is a ton of risk in this for the Brewers since you traded the best reliever in baseball for a backend starter with diminished velocity who seems destined for TJS. And a 5’6″ 25-year-old AAA infielder with an 83mph exit velocity. I get Willaims is a FA next year but that is a very dangerous haul.
They would have been better off trading him at deadline and gotten some real prospects.
The Brewers will highly likely be in the race for the division if not leading the nl central, so I’m not sure they’d trade Williams at the deadline. Yes, I know they traded Hader at the deadline a few years ago but I don’t think they’d move Williams this time unless their season went badly. .
Today I learned that there are people out there who think Nestor Cortes is in the same universe of value as Devin Williams. People who evidently have never watched a Brewers or Yankees game.
Cortes has 9.3 WAR over the last four years. Williams has 6.2. Sorry bud, gonna trust that track record over your eyes.
Quality starting pitching has value, who would have guessed?
Williams has 60 RE24 in 222 innings over the last five years to Nestor’s 50 in 496 IP…and 39.7 RE24 in 141 IP to Nestor’s 41.3 in 396 IP over the last three.
Love Nasty Nestor, but he’s very much a bulk innings over impact guy…which makes him more valuable to the Brewers than the Yankees, but not so much so that NY didn’t need to add a sweetener.
Based on Nestor Cortes accruing 3 more fWAR and 2.5 more rWAR in only 300 more innings than Williams, over the last three seasons, I can say with absolute certainty that I’d rather have him face Freddie Freeman with the game on the line than Devin Williams!
Brewers needed starting pitching. Yankees needed relief pitching. Seems fair to me.
Not to mention how having a #ProvenCloser lets them keep Weaver in the fireman role!
When are Yankees going to stop requiring their players to shave? I’m sure Williams won’t be thrilled to have to get rid of his beard. It’s a silly, outdated policy.
Worked so far
If there’s one thing Brian Cashman loves to do, it’s trade second basemen.