Your Stance On the Team Projections (National League)

And we’re back for the second half of this polling project. If you missed the first half, which was dedicated to the American League, here you go. The idea, in short, is just to gauge community opinion of the team projections, which as of Monday are now updated to include ZiPS, instead of just being based on Steamer like before. What we all see now should be awful close to what we see on the eve of opening day, and so, with that in mind, here’s the projected National League:

The NL projections haven’t been as controversial as the AL projections. On the AL side, we’ve had to talk entirely too much about the Royals, and we’ve also had teams like the Red Sox go off the rails. The NL has behaved more predictably of late, but that doesn’t mean you might not still disagree with some of the projections in that table. Teams are predictable until they aren’t, and this is the whole reason behind the project. I just want to know where you think the numbers are good, and I want to know where you think the numbers are being stupid.

A request, again: when voting below, please try to consider only the information we have at this moment. You can assume that some prospects will or will not eventually show up, but don’t dock certain teams because you think they’ll subtract at the deadline, and don’t boost other teams for expected trade additions. I’m interested in what you think of the teams as we speak. Maybe you just haven’t thought that much about the expected cellar-dwellers, but don’t worry, you can’t actually get this wrong. Once more, thanks for all the help. We’ll analyze all this stuff later in the week.

To proceed directly to a specific team projection poll, click on the team’s name below.

Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Padres, Phillies, Pirates, Reds, Rockies

=====

Braves

• Team Projection: 68-94

The Braves have exactly two players who are projected to be worth more than 2 WAR. One of them is projected to be worth 2.1. Now, in fairness, it seems like the projection systems are being kind of mean about Ender Inciarte, as they don’t quite buy him as a truly elite defender, but maybe we’re the ones who’re wrong. When some organizations this loaded with talent start to turn good, you can see them coming on the horizon. I personally don’t see the Braves coming. Not yet, anyway. (But you might!) (This is your poll!)

Brewers

• Team Projection: 71-91

So much of the Brewers’ season might just end up existing within the fog of Jonathan Lucroy and Will Smith trade rumors. They’re very much still rebuilding, and there are moves for them left to make. Based on results, this season is unlikely to be pretty, but at least there are elements to look forward to. The arrival of Orlando Arcia nears with every passing day, and there’s a good chance we’re going to see a lot of Domingo Santana, who might be baseball’s most unprojectable player. The rotation has some actual young talent around Matt Garza, and the bullpen could be surprisingly effective for at least as long as Smith is around. The Brewers will probably be bad. I don’t see them sinking to the lowest depths.

Cardinals

• Team Projection: 85-77

As good as the Cardinals were last year, they lost their best position player (who went to the Cubs) and they lost their best pitcher (who went to the Cubs). Cracks could be forming, and I haven’t even addressed all the clutch pitching performances the Cardinals are unlikely to have repeat. Yet at the end of the day, these are the Cardinals, and they’ve won at least 86 games for eight years in a row. They always seem to have replacements on hand, and now they get Adam Wainwright back, to slot in ahead of Mike Leake. Randal Grichuk might have 30 homers in him. I don’t know how long people have been predicting the decline of the Cardinals, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Cubs

• Team Projection: 97-65

So the Cubs won 97 games, then they added Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, and John Lackey. Each is a player with his flaws, and everyone else on the roster is also a player with his flaws, but all that really means is that the Cubs aren’t composed of literally flawless baseball players. It’s true, and maybe it’s kind of a critique. The Cubs will not win every baseball game. But boy do they seem better suited to do it than anyone else.

Diamondbacks

• Team Projection: 80-82

If you ask the Diamondbacks, they think they’re a lot better than this. Of course they do — if they didn’t, they wouldn’t have had the offseason they just finished putting together. They know they have a star in Paul Goldschmidt, they know they have a star in Zack Greinke, they know they have a star in A.J. Pollock, and they believe they have developing stars in David Peralta and Shelby Miller. There’s also the forgotten but talented Patrick Corbin, and the surprisingly powerful Robbie Ray, and maybe, just maybe, this is the year Yasmany Tomas looks like he has a clue. The thing we know for sure is the Diamondbacks have set themselves up to be a team to watch. That’s only very infrequently been the case. What we don’t know yet is if they’ll still be a team to watch come August.

Dodgers

• Team Projection: 94-68

You must be sick of hearing about it by now, but the Dodgers have prioritized depth accumulation over star accumulation. It’s so very easy to distill their whole offseason down to just “they lost Zack Greinke,” and while that does surely hurt, this is not a team that’s hurting for starter candidates. Clayton Kershaw is like a too-powerful government pitching experiment, and then you have Scott Kazmir, who just started 31 games. Brett Anderson just started 31 games, and Kenta Maeda just started 29 games in Japan. The fifth spot is overflowing with options, and there’s further help coming from the farm. So while you expect a team this rich to have a bunch of the best players in baseball, the Dodgers instead have settled for eliminating any weaknesses. They seem pretty good all over the place, and they aren’t even yet entirely to the point they want to reach. I guess you could call them unconventional.

Giants

• Team Projection: 87-75

As I look at the Giants, there’s more overall uncertainty than I was expecting. I mean, I knew about everything, individually, but I guess I never bothered to put it together. They threw a lot of money at Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, and they’re both coming off bad second halves. It’s impossible to know fully what to expect from Matt Cain, and then there’s the matter of the rehabilitating Denard Span, and the rehabilitating Angel Pagan, and the surprising Joe Panik and Matt Duffy. If you think the Giants are going to win 95 games, I get it. If you think the Giants are going to finish under .500, I get it.

Marlins

• Team Projection: 81-81

The Marlins, along with the Diamondbacks, amuse me, because they’re the only two teams in the National League projected to win more than 73 games, but fewer than 84. They make up the entire middle tier, and with any team in this position, there’s stuff to like and an almost equivalent amount of stuff to not like. It wasn’t long ago people argued the Marlins had the best outfield in baseball, and they still have the same group. Dee Gordon and Adeiny Hechavarria last year were two of the most improved players in baseball. The rotation now has Wei-Yin Chen behind Jose Fernandez, and the bullpen pairs the lethal Carter Capps with the totally unknown A.J. Ramos. And, oh, the Marlins snagged Jim Benedict from the Pirates last fall, and Benedict has drawn credit for being part of the Pirates’ magic pitching formula. The Marlins, once again, are going to be talented. Yet they’ll once again be thin, and they’ll once again be the Marlins.

Mets

• Team Projection: 90-72

What’s not to like? The defense, I guess, but that can matter only so much when the starting rotation strikes everyone out. And the bullpen seems kind of thin, outside of the closer, but again, the starters are so good they should be able to survive that. It’s legitimate to wonder about the true quality of the Mets’ offense since last year they got to face an overall pretty light slate of opposition talent, but that’s only going to be the case again, so it’s not that important. The depth situation appears much better than it was. The team ought to be able to handle David Wright’s off days, and Michael Conforto can be rested without the lineup suffering so bad. I’m sure Mets fans will find something to complain about, but even a delicious piece of bacon might be slightly unevenly cooked.

Nationals

• Team Projection: 90-72

Surprise! It’s a tie! The Mets have clobbered the Nationals on paper over the past year, and it only carried over into the offseason, when the Mets addressed their deficiencies while the Nationals kept getting turned down. But now that 2016 will be shortly underway, the Nationals have still wound up with what seems like a perfectly competitive roster, and while you can say what you will about Dusty Baker, it’s almost impossible to imagine he could be a worse and less successful leader than Matt Williams. I know some while back I ran a post dedicated to just comparing the Mets and the Nationals but I’m still looking forward to these poll results in particular.

Padres

• Team Projection: 73-89

Not a single position player is projected to be worth more than 2 WAR. Cory Spangenberg projects for the second-highest total, and he’s followed in third place by Yangervis Solarte. Did you know that Jon Jay is on this team? Now that I say that you probably remember when that happened, but don’t pretend like you would’ve recalled that off the top of your head if given the opportunity. The pitchers of interest remain. I’m personally curious to see if Brandon Maurer can channel a little Tyson Ross. But I’m going to close this paragraph by typing “Cory Spangenberg” again.

Phillies

• Team Projection: 64-98

This should all look so different in a year. A good front office is in place, and they have a stupid amount of resources, and the farm system is about to erupt. A year from now, they should have more than three interesting position players, and more than two interesting starters. So, Phillies fans, hold tight — you shouldn’t have to put up with this for that much longer. And hey, you’ll enjoy April, because it’s April, and that’s too early to hate baseball. May could suck, but once June rolls around, then prospects might start to emerge. The Phillies might end up with one of the most watchable second halves in the league. Just for, let’s say, different reasons than most.

Pirates

• Team Projection: 84-78

It’s a bad look to threaten to further underpay Gerrit Cole. And the whole offseason has been one in which the Pirates operated pretty cheaply. I’m starting to notice a little bit of worry that the Pirates might be approaching the end of their competitive window, because they aren’t blessed with the resources of a bigger organization. I absolutely agree that the Pirates don’t have another team’s margin of error. But then this coming roster doesn’t look much worse than last year’s roster. One of the unsexy starting pitchers could be moved aside for Tyler Glasnow. There’s plenty to lament, but given what they used to be, it just doesn’t strike me as appropriate. Maybe I’m too sunny of a person.

Reds

• Team Projection: 70-92

You know who I almost completely forgot about? Devin Mesoraco, who two years ago slugged .534. His most recent season was a total wash due to injury, but now he’s back, and he’s one of the players the Reds could end up counting on if they want to stop short of being a nightmare. We all understand pretty well it’s going to be a non-competitive season, but if Mesoraco hits, and assuming Joey Votto is Joey Votto, and if a few of the pitchers build on what they did down the stretch…there should be series where the Reds resemble a perfectly average ballclub, and that’s important when you’re trying not to push your entire fan base away.

Rockies

• Team Projection: 72-90

I keep hearing how excited the Rockies are about the pitching they’ve put together. And there’s a fairly strong system beneath the major-league level, so while the Rockies might at times seem directionless, progress has been in the works. The Rockies are getting somewhere, however slowly, and 2017 ought to be brighter than 2016. It doesn’t seem like 2016 is going to be very bright. It doesn’t seem like it’s going to be very bright at all.