Coming into today, if you had to guess what National League first baseman was leading the league in wOBA, whom would you pick? Albert Pujols? Adrian Gonzalez? Prince Fielder? It’s actually Reds first baseman Joey Votto, who, with a .425 wOBA, is also leading the entire NL and is fourth in all of baseball.

Those facts may come as a shock to some baseball fans, but they really shouldn’t. Ever since he came to the big leagues, all Votto has done is hit. With a career line of .310/.393/.543 (.400 wOBA), his breakout season at age twenty-six may just be a sign of things to come. With a UZR/150 of 10.1 this year (after -1.5 in 2009 and 11.9 in 2008), Votto has cemented himself as one of the most valuable properties in baseball.

What’s also been shocking is how Votto has been so upfront and honest about his struggles with depression. Playing in a macho sport where players are told to “suck it up” and “play like a man,” Votto has been completely candid about his issues, which has been extremely refreshing:

“There were nights that I couldn’t be alone…The one night I was alone, the very first night I was alone, was when I went to the hospital. I couldn’t take it. It just got to the point where I felt I was going to die, really….

I’ve been lumped into the Khalil Greene, Dontrelle Willis, Zack Greinke category…I’m not saying one way or the other about those guys, because I don’t know what they’re dealing with. But I do know I’ve had a real struggle with my father’s passing. It’s really something I’ve had a real hard time with. It was my biggest hesitation coming out and letting people know, letting my teammates know. We’re supposed to be known as mentally tough and able to withstand any type of adversity…

I was having such a difficult time getting through the night that once I felt like I could get through two or three nights of sleep without having the phone beside me and worrying about having to call the hospital, I felt like I could start playing ball again.”

Votto missed thirty-one games last season, many of them due to time on the Disabled List because of depression. He still put up 4.5 WAR for the season, hitting .322/.414/.567.

The Reds are a half-game out of a playoff spot right now, and Joey Votto is the biggest reason why. For his career, he has a WAR/Game higher than guys like Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez. Let’s take a minute to notice.

Overview

While it’s a bit unusual, the Giants kicked off their legitimate run at the NL West last night by trading away their starting catcher. By moving Bengie Molina to the Rangers, they can now re-arrange their line-up in such a way that will let them become buyers for what they really need.

Buy or Sell

This is an easy buy, and the sooner the better. The NL West is wide open and the Giants have a shot at this thing, but they’ll need to be willing to make a move for an outfielder who can hit if they want to run down the three teams in front of them. The Molina trade lets them put Buster Posey behind the plate and move Aubrey Huff back to first base, creating a spot in the outfield for the one guy on the market who fits their needs perfectly – David DeJesus.

Besides being able to play any of the three outfield positions, DeJesus can do one thing the Giants badly need – hit the baseball with regularity. A career .290/.361/.429 hitter, he’s in the midst of the best year of his career, putting up a .331/.398/.478 mark for the Royals. He would be a monstrous upgrade over Aaron Rowand, and he fits everything that Brian Sabean has said he’s looking for.

He’s not a rental player, as he’s under contract for 2011 at a bargain rate of $6 million. He’s a good defender who can run down balls in the spacious park, and putting him next to Andres Torres will somewhat offset having Pat Burrell out there as well. He can hit anywhere in the line-up as well, as he’s one of the rare high quality players who also offers a lot of flexibility in how he is used.

There just aren’t any players like DeJesus on the market, who fit the needs of the Giants so perfectly. Rumor has the Royals asking for the moon, but I have to think there’s a deal to be made here. Putting him on this roster makes too much sense for it to not happen.

On The Farm

While Posey and Madison Bumgarner got all the headlines, there are some interesting young players in the system besides those two. They could offer up players like 20-year-old shortstop Ehire Adrianza, outfielder Thomas Neal, or lefty reliever Dan Runzler, who would have value to the Royals but wouldn’t cripple their future. The Giants system has enough depth to pull of a trade for pretty much anyone they want, and Sabean has shown he’s not shy about trading young for old.

Budget

At just $6 million for 2011, the Giants should be able to fit DeJesus in the budget, even though they’re going to be stretched for payroll room. They already have $77 million in committed salaries for next year, and that doesn’t include money to re-sign Aubrey Huff. They’re not going to have a ton of money to spend to upgrade their roster over the winter, so a guy like DeJesus, who is worth far more than his salary, is exactly what the doctor ordered.

In his book, “Is This a Great Game or What?”, Tim Kurkjian relayed the tale of Vladimir Guerrero’s humble beginnings in pro ball. Then a lanky 16-year-old, Guerrero showed up at a tryout in the Dominican Republic on the back of a motorcycle. Sporting mismatched shoes with a sock shoved into one of them to make it fit, Vlad earned himself a contract with Montreal that day. The motorcycle driver got a couple hundred bucks, and the Expos got themselves one of the most devastating hitters in recent memory.

Since debuting with Les Expos as a 21-year-old in 1996, Guerrero has authored a .322/.386/.569 line. Possessing uncanny bat speed and hand-eye coordination and employing an eyes-to-ankles strike zone — he’ll swing at balls, strikes, fastballs, breaking stuff, off-speed, low-flying birds, errant gum wrappers and plastic bags — Vlad’s wRC+ is 144.

Heading into 2010, however, Guerrero appeared to be squarely in the decline phase of his career. Injuries really began to take their toll on The Impaler in 2009. Guerrero was slowed in spring training while recovering from off-season surgery on his right knee. He suffered a strained right pectoral muscle in April and a right calf strain in July, requiring a DL stint for both ailments. Vlad was limited to 407 plate appearances during his last season with the Angels, and he wasn’t his usual self at the dish.

Guerrero posted a .295/.334/.460 triple-slash, with his worst wRC+ (110) since that 27 PA stint with Montreal back in ’96. His mammoth power was conspicuously absent — Vlad’s Isolated Power, which ranged from .218 to .222 the previous three seasons, was a mild .164. The pending free agent produced just 0.8 Wins Above Replacement.

Guerrero’s days as an offensive force appeared numbered — entering his mid-thirties, his body was betraying him. He had to settle for a modest one-year, $6.5 million deal with the Texas Rangers this past winter, with a mutual option for the 2011 season. Suffice it to say, reports of The Impaler’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.

In 311 PA with Texas, Guerrero’s hitting .339/.383/.580. His 152 wRC+ is his highest mark since 2005, as is his .240 ISO. With +19.5 Park Adjusted Batting Runs, Vlad ranks 11th among MLB hitters. And despite being a DH/part-time corner outfielder, he has already put up 2.6 WAR on the season. Last night, Guerrero went 4-for-4 while clubbing a pair of homers — he hammered a Scott Kazmir changeup for a grand slam in the fourth inning and smoked a Francisco Rodriguez slider in the eighth.

A few days ago, I looked at Joe Mauer’s unusual productivity when hitting the ball to the opposite field. Guerrero was also well above-average when going “oppo” in 2007 and 2008, while crushing the ball to center field most effectively. He continued to fare well when going to the middle field last year, but his performance when going the opposite way tailed off considerably:

As Vlad’s numbers when going the opposite way declined, he hit more pitches in that direction:

In 2010, Guerrero has been most effective when pulling the ball:

He has reversed those spray trends — Vlad’s hitting to the pull field 42.2 percent of the time, going to the middle field 39.5 percent and going the opposite way just 18.3 percent.

Vladimir Guerrero’s raking, and he’s making the Rangers look very smart. Wherever that motorcycle driver is, he deserves a bigger tip.

On Wednesday night, the Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants announced the swap of Chris Ray and a player to be named later for Bengie Molina. Molina’s purpose in Texas will be to improve the catching situation, which has been brutal thanks to the incompetence of Matt Treanor and the disappointing although underrated season from Max Ramirez.

The only problem for the Rangers is that Molina is not actually an upgrade. Rangers catchers have a season wOBA of .296, mostly thanks to Treanor’s .308 wOBA and Taylor Teagarden’s 33 PAs of .139 wOBA. Max Ramirez has actually had an above average hitting season despite a .234 batting average. Thanks to his 15.0% BB rate, he’s posted a .336 wOBA this season. Bengie Molina, on the other hand, posted a .284 wOBA in the NL due to a complete lack of power, a penchant for fly balls, and possibly the slowest pair of legs in the majors.

Of course, half-season stats can only tell us so much, and it’s possible that we’re missing something about Ramirez, Treanor, and Molina by limiting ourselves to their performance so far. Treanor is likely playing over his head, as bad as that sounds. In 1,000 major league PAs, Treanor’s wOBA is .289, and his ZiPS (R) projection of .298 still leaves a bit to be desired. He does appear to be an above average catcher, according to our own Matt Klaassen’s catcher defense rankings. In those same rankings, Ramirez has been poor behind the plate, but at the plate he projects as a slightly better .306 wOBA for the rest of the season.

That’s certainly a bleak outlook on the catching front for Texas. The addition of Molina does nothing to change that, though. Molina’s .306 projected wOBA is identical to Ramirez’s and doesn’t account for the move to the better league. At best, the movement to the AL could be cancelled out by the move to the hitter’s park in Arlington, but there’s also a good chance that Molina’s poor performance will only be exacerbated by the tougher pitchers in the American League.

Molina’s defense and baserunning also leave much to be desired. Bengie ranks 82nd of 90 catchers in the aforementioned defensive rankings, at -2.5 runs already this season. His EQBRR, Baseball Prospectus’s baserunning metric, has him as an average baserunner this season. However, he was -4.5 runs last season and -7.1 two seasons ago; the chances that Molina repeats his average performance for the rest of the season are slim. Ramirez is a poor baserunner, as well, but Treanor has been above average in his last two recorded seasons, 2010 and 2008. Due to Molina’s deficiencies behind the plate and on the bases, he provides little, if anything, over Matt Treanor and Max Ramirez.

At least the Rangers didn’t give anything up to get Molina. Chris Ray is a below replacement level reliever, projected for a 4.60 FIP, and will likely perform worse, as he’s struck out 16 and walked 16 batters in 31.2 innings. However, this move likely precludes any improvement at the position. The Rangers also took on just under $2 million in salary when they probably could get similar production by recalling Jarrod Saltalamacchia from AAA. This move is just a headscratcher from Jon Daniels and the Rangers – it seems as if they’re acquiring a name more than anything else.

For the Giants, the return of Chris Ray isn’t what this trade is about. This trade is about finally opening a spot behind the plate for young Buster Posey. Posey hasn’t done much in his first 98 MLB plate appearances, but he’s been very promising in AAA and his .330 projected wOBA would make him a 3+ WAR player with upside. The Giants shouldn’t have re-signed Molina in the first place, but this is a good move by Brian Sabean to unload Molina and his remaining contract now that it’s absolutely clear that he is not a useful player. The Buster Posey era can now officially begin in San Francisco.