Starting today, FanGraphs is offering a season preview for each team in baseball. We’ll begin with the NL West and do three teams each day. Check back later for our thoughts on the Giants and Rockies, and stay tuned over the next few weeks where we break down each team’s chances in 2011.

After dealing Dan Haren to the Angels during the 2010 season, the Diamondbacks have gone into full rebuilding mode under new General Manager Kevin Towers. The team traded Mark Reynolds, but much of the relatively young talent which keyed Arizona’s powerful offense remains. Towers has surrounded that young talent with aging veterans, ostensibly hoping to use 2011 as a season for the young guns to learn how to win from the older guys. Unfortunately, much like last year, the Diamondbacks roster doesn’t project to do much winning this season.

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The annals of baseball history are littered with interesting stories and stat lines. Being the young sap that I am, much of that history is unknown to me which is why I dig around in our databases from time to time so that I can come across stories like this one.

Herb Washington was a world-class sprinter. Literally, he held world records in both the 50 and 60-yard sprints. He also played baseball in high school but stopped after his Junior year. About six years later, Charlie Finley signed him to the Oakland Athletics for the 1974 season to be used as a pinch runner.

That was not an unprecedented move for Finley, but what ended up being special about Washington is that despite appearing in 110 games total across 1974 and 1975, Washington never once came to bat nor spent even an inning in the field. Read the rest of this entry »

You are running a team that is coming off a divisional championship, thanks in large part to a Cy Young Level performance by a pitcher finally “all the way back” from injury. He’s still under team control through 2012, and your team is still considered a contender for the division. What do you? Consider trading him, of course! According to the linked report, that might be the situation with the Twins and Francisco Liriano. But can they contend in 2011 without him?

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As the title of the post indicates, this is a list of the 20 best and also worst groundballing seasons, 1950-2001, as estimated by the Retrosheet ground-out/air-out (GO/AO) data hosted at Baseball-Reference.

For more on the research here, please don’t hesitate to read the last article in this series or a discussion of same at Tango’s Inside the Book blog. I’ve also included a brief discussion of some name on this list after the leaderboards.

Here are the 20 best groundballing seasons (xGB% is Expected Groundball Percentage and xGB+ is xGB% relative to league average in the relevant season):

Pitcher		Team	Year	GO/AO	xGB%	LgAvg	xGB+
Steve Trout*	CHC	1984	3.62	67.9%	43.2%	157
Tommy John*	LAD	1978	3.72	68.4%	43.9%	156
Tommy John*	LAD	1977	3.87	69.2%	44.6%	155
John Denny	PHI	1983	2.90	63.5%	43.9%	145
Kevin Brown	FLA	1997	2.99	64.1%	44.4%	144
Bob Stanley	BOS	1982	2.82	62.9%	44.3%	142
Tommy John*	NYY	1988	2.57	61.1%	43.2%	142
Bill Swift	SEA	1988	2.57	61.1%	43.2%	142
John Denny	CLE	1981	2.79	62.7%	44.6%	141
Kevin Brown	FLA	1996	2.70	62.1%	44.3%	140
Dennis Lamp	CHW	1982	2.68	61.9%	44.3%	140
Orel Hershiser	LAD	1984	2.45	60.1%	43.2%	139
Kevin Brown	TEX	1989	2.47	60.3%	43.3%	139
Jerry Reuss*	LAD	1982	2.60	61.3%	44.3%	139
Tommy John*	LAD	1976	2.50	60.5%	43.7%	138
Kevin Brown	TEX	1990	2.37	59.5%	43.0%	138
Ray Fontenot*	NYY	1984	2.40	59.7%	43.2%	138
Al Brazle*	STL	1950	2.24	58.4%	42.2%	138
Chuck Rainey	CHC	1983	2.50	60.5%	43.9%	138
Bill Swift	SFG	1993	2.43	60.0%	43.5%	138

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In 2009, Adam Lind led a Blue Jays offense that finished eighth in the majors in runs scored. His .394 wOBA topped the team by a significant margin, and his .257 ISO was unrivaled by any player with more than 150 PA (sorry, Randy Ruiz). It stood to reason that Lind, a highly touted prospect whom the Blue Jays brought along slowly, had experienced a breakout year and would continue to lead the team’s offense through its rebuilding years. Yet in 2010 we saw a completely different Lind. It has led to many questions about him heading into 2011. But looking at how his season unfolded, it appears as though he could be in for another high-powered 2011 campaign.

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An interesting comment from the post below leads me to this simple question – how much more would you be willing to pay for a version of MLB.tv that did not include blackout restrictions? Essentially, would the market justify an additional product whose revenues could be used to buy the team owners out of their arcane use of “local market” demarcations? The totals listed below would essentially be premiums on top of the base fee, so you can just add $100 or $120 (depending on which version you would purchase) to get the total price you’d be willing to pay for a truly blackout free MLB.tv product.

As Carson noted over at NotGraphs yesterday, MLB.tv is set to begin broadcasting actual baseball games this weekend, with three match-ups on the docket for Saturday. And, as they mention on the subscription page, there will be 150 spring training games available with “NO BLACKOUTS” (emphasis theirs). That brings me to my annual rant about a product that I can’t live without, but is so deeply flawed as to frustrate me to no end. MLB.tv could be the greatest thing ever invented, but the insane MLB blackout policies are simply mind-bogglingly stupid.

Everyone has their own personal horror story about the blackout rules. Living in North Carolina, I know that I don’t have it as bad as others – the poor people in Iowa are blacked out from watching the Twins, Royals, White Sox, Brewers, Cubs, and Cardinals – but the story here shows just how ridiculous Major League Baseball’s rules are. I am in the “local” market for four teams – the Braves, Reds, Nationals, and Orioles. The Braves are at least somewhat understandable, as I’m “only” about five hours from Atlanta and their games are readily available on cable networks in my area.

The other three, however, are essentially out of my reach. I’m 430 miles from Cincinnati, and no television carrier in my area offers Fox Sports Ohio. Why would they? It’s not like there’s much demand for Ohio area sports down here. Interestingly, I’m not blacked out from the Pirates, who are only 409 miles away, or the Indians, who are 476 miles away. I can’t explain the Pirates/Reds thing, and as for Cleveland, I guess that extra 50 miles makes all the difference in the world, despite the fact that it is more accessible via major interstates and it would actually take me less time to drive there than to get to Cincinnati.

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Plenty of rookie relievers who made brief appearances in 2010 are worth looking out for in 2011. Aroldis Chapman leads rookie reliever headlines with his grade 90 fastball (yes, grade 90) and Chris Sale could challenge for the White Sox’ closer role. Craig Kimbrel has also gotten lots of love from several FanGraphs authors. While it remains to be seen if Chapman and Sale will develop into starters, Kimbrel seems destined for the bullpen. His mid-90s fastball and mid-80s slurvy curveball form a two-pitch reportoire, which resulted in a 17.42 K/9 in 2010. Earlier this month, I highlighted Kimbrel’s control issues and 6.71 BB/9 when discussing the Braves’ possible platoon closer situation.

But there are two Los Angeles rookie relievers with similar profiles to Kimbrel whom I feel have been more underappreciated, perhaps due to Kimbrel’s appearances in October baseball: Kenley Jansen of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Jordan Walden of the Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim). Like Kimbrel, both Jansen and Walden bring the high heat with mid to high-90s fastballs along with mid-80s slurvy slider/curves. And like Kimbrel, both L.A. relievers are strikeout artists with command issues, especially with their fastballs.

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The Texas Rangers
2010 MLB Record: 90-72 (first place, AL West)
Minor League Power Ranking: 8th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Jurickson Profar, SS
Acquired: 2009 non-drafted free agent (Curacao)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: Short-season
Opening Day Age: 18
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: Profar was challenged with a North American debut in short-season ball and held his own. Then 17, he hit .250/.323/.373 in 252 at-bats. He utilized a quick bat to post a .123 ISO rate despite a slight frame. Encouragingly, Profar also showed a lot of patience for his age and experience level by posting a walk rate of 9.7 BB%. His strikeout rate was reasonable at 18.3 K%. At the plate, he doesn’t take much of a stride but he has a balanced base and quick hips. On the base paths, the youngster shows decent speed and stole eight bags in 11 tries. Defensively, he’ll have no issues with remaining at shortstop thanks to good range, soft hands and a strong arm (He was coveted by many teams as a pitcher). Rangers fans should be excited about this infielder.

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Last season was a rude and abrupt awakening for those thinking that Nyjer Morgan had made a step toward stardom. In 2009, Morgan combined above-average hitting with a UZR love affair to produce a breakout 4.9 WAR season. But Morgan couldn’t maintain the historic +28 UZR he posted in 2009 and, at the same time, his batting line dropped off sharply as his BABIP fell down to earth. Still, despite the catastrophic fall on offense and defense, Morgan still had one point of value to cling to: baserunning. Speed doesn’t slump, as they say, and it didn’t for Morgan in 2010. The speedster compiled another 34 stolen bases after posting 42 in his first full season in 2009.

Of course, just as batting average doesn’t tell the whole story of hitting, stolen bases don’t tell the whole story of baserunning. The caught stealing can be a costly result for a team, so much so that a player needs to succeed at least three times as often as he fails for the stolen base to provide value. And despite all of his speed, somehow Nyjer Morgan has failed to provide value via the stolen base over the course of his career.

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