Bobby Abreu’s insane run at the 2005 Home Run Derby and the power-outage that quickly followed has spurred the same discussion each year at this time: Did swinging for the fences on that one night in Detroit hurt Abreu’s gameday swings every night thereafter?
Question: what do these guys all have in common?
Handing out multi-year deals to relievers is a dicey proposition, but every year we see teams hand them out. This past offseason 10 teams handed out multi-year deals to 15 relief pitchers, totaling $160.5 million total and $54.7 million in 2011 salary. Yet to date they’ve produced just 3.9 WAR among them. Maybe WAR isn’t the best measure of relief pitchers, but the other stats don’t make the signings look much better. They have also combined for 162 shutdowns, but 71 meltdowns — or a meltdown every 6.5 games pitched. Here’s how they break down.
After yesterday’s recap of last year’s list, and the lessons taken from it, we’re off to the races again with the 2011 Trade Value series.
To maintain transparency and avoid any kerfuffles this time around, I want to be clear that this column was inspired by Bill Simmons, who tackles this same topic for the NBA. Thanks for the fantastic idea, Bill.
Before we get to the last five spots on the list, let’s talk briefly about what question this list is attempting to answer. Trade value is not an easy thing to measure, and it differs for each team – the Yankees will be interested in an entirely different type of player than the Astros, for instance. Winning teams with high payrolls will give up prospects that rebuilding teams would never move, while for some teams a premium player with a salary to match just isn’t someone they’d be willing to add to their payroll. No teams will put the same value on the player, so we have to answer something a little more broad than “would this team trade Player A for Player B”, because if we’re talking about the Yankees and the Royals, we’re answering a specific question that has a lot of extra variables in it.
So, instead, I’d say the goal of the list is to measure the league-wide demand for a player’s services if that player was made available in the trade market. There are a few players that every single team in baseball would call about if they were put on the block due to their abilities and their contract status. The demand would be astronomical if they were actually gettable, and in most cases they’re so valuable they just won’t be traded.
Beyond those elite guys that are fairly easy to put near the top of the list, though, there are players who have some big positives, but also a significant negative that depresses their value to some franchises. For some guys, that may be a high salary with a long term commitment, or they could be near the end of a contract and be looking for a big extension in the near future. For others, the contract might be the asset itself, with the player having some kind of wart in his game that would keep some teams from actually thinking he’s worth a premium return. Others have off-the-field issues that might cause teams to discount what they’d give up to get them.
I try my best to weigh these factors and determine which teams would see as the biggest determinants in whether he’s a player they’d make a real push to acquire. That said, sometimes this involves hair slicing or making judgment calls, and not everyone is going to weight things the same way, which is fine; this list is intended to spark conversation and interesting discussion, and reasonable people can disagree over placement. Just try to keep in mind that there’s not a huge difference between spots on the list, and in many cases, a guy could move up or down by a decent margin and still have it be reasonable.
If you get bent out of shape because someone is #43 and you think he should be #41, you’re probably reading too much into specific placement on the list. In eyeballing the list, to me there’s a pretty clear top 15 or so, then there’s a big jumble where you could make a lot of different judgment calls than I do. There were also a few guys who I couldn’t believe I had to leave off the list (there’s no Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels, Matt Kemp, or Eric Hosmer for instance – it killed me to exclude them), but I ran this by a bunch of smart people who offered good feedback, tried to weigh the pros and cons as best we could, and this is what we came up with.
On Sunday, Jordan Zimmermann continued his excellent season with six and a third shutout innings at home against the Rockies. He struck out six, walked none, and it was the 17th time in his 18 starts that he walked fewer than two batters. Though he doesn’t have an above-average whiff rate or strikeout rate, his excellent control has proven that he should remain a good major league starter for the forseeable future.
Or, at least for another seven starts or so this year. If Bill Ladson’s reporting is correct, the team will be limiting the 25-year-old right-hander to 160 innings this year. Though the pitcher hasn’t mentioned any health issues, the Nationals would like to be cautious and will make Zimmermann the fifth starter so they can skip the occasional start and limit the innings. After all, he’s still coming off Tommy John surgery and hasn’t ever pitched more than 134 innings combined in one calendar year.
But, as you might have noticed from the titular hint, this is not a post about Jordan Zimmermann and innings limits. Instead, it’s about some comments that Nationals manager Davey Johnson made about the plan to limit the innings.
During last week’s Very Important Event at SABR 41, Sam Miller of the OC Register noted that one of the deficiencies of the current Angels team is the abundance of average-ish players on the roster. Despite the fact that the Anaheimers sit only a single game out of first place at the All-Star break, their playoff chances are impaired by a lack of obviously upgradeable positions: seven Angels are on pace for (or have already reached) a WAR of 2.0 or better — i.e. league average — while Bobby Abreu (who’s not going anywhere) and the catcher spot are the other two relevant slots.
Turning our attention to the Middle West, however, we see a team in the Milwaukee Brewers that has very clear deficiencies. One of these — third base — I have no intention of addressing here. The other, however — namely, shortstop — has been a conspicuous weakness from the very second Brewer GM Doug Melvin traded away Alcides Escobar et al. for Zack Greinke.
Please note that it’s not my intention whatsoever to suggest that the Greinke deal was a poor one. Very much to the contrary, Greinke appears to be an essential part of a vastly improved Brewer club. Rather, the point of this post is to note that there has never been much reason to assume that Yuniesky Betancourt, who has been a replacement-level player since 2008, would prove to be anything but a replacement-level player in 2011.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are in the middle of their most successful season in nearly two decades, but you can’t blame their fans for still being disappointed. The Pirates have received virtually no coverage despite the fact that they are currently four games above .500, play in a winnable division, and currently employ one of the best players in baseball. Despite his All-Star Game “snub” — which Eric Seidman covered last week — Andrew McCutchen has officially established himself as one of the best, and most exciting, players in the game. It’s a damn shame that he continues to fly under the radar.
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The nucleus accumbens plays an important role in our experience of pleasure.
I, Carson Cistulli, am quoting myself when I say that I read a book not to find its meaning, but to find my happiness. I’m also basically quoting myself when I say that I watch a baseball game for mostly the same reason.
While team allegiance is clearly a powerful motivator in any fan’s interest in a particular game/player/team, there are also some games/players/teams that transcend merely regional ties. Jose Bautista‘s offensive dominance, for example, is captivating. Roy Halladay’s precision and efficiency on the other side of the pitcher-batter confrontation is also great and will suffice. Josh Collmenter possesses a pitching motion devised by Norse trickster god Loki. And so on.
The Leaderboards you see here represent the author’s attempt to isolate those traits which most appeal to the learned baseballing fan and to identify which players, teams, etc possess them most bountifully.
Below are bolded headings on which you can click to bring yourself right to a specific leaderboard. Otherwise, don’t be afraid to go wildwildwild and just browse your way through the present post.
Note: to read last week’s edition, click here.
1. Team NERD Leaderboard (Traditional)
2. Team NERD Leaderboard (Playoff-Adjusted)
3. Team NERD Leaderboard (Betterly Playoff-Adjusted, Maybe)
4. Underrated Player Leaderboard
5. Least Underrated Player Leaderboard
6. Pitcher NERD Leaderboard
7. Player NERD Leaderboard
Scott Rolen is starting at third base for the National League All Stars. This isn’t so much an indictment of the All-Star selection process (although it certainly could be) as it is the sad, sad state of third base in the National League right now.
National League third basemen are currently hitting .254/.315/.373, for a .688 OPS. The only inferior non-pitcher position is the shortstop, at .675. Perhaps part of this is due to injury — Pablo Sandoval, one of the best hitting 3B in the game right now, has only played in 50 games. David Wright has only played 39 games. Ryan Zimmerman has only played 34. The loss of those three star-level hitters has certainly hurt the position, leading to more time for players like Jerry Hairston Jr., Miguel Tejada, and Alex Cora. Also, Brandon Wood plays in the National League now.