Archive for April, 2012

2012 Organizational Rankings: #5 – Philadelphia

Dave Cameron previously laid out the methodology behind the rankings here. Remember that the grading scale for each category is 20-80, with 50 representing league average.

2012 Organizational Rankings

#30 – Baltimore
#29 – Houston
#28 – Oakland
#27 – Pittsburgh
#26 – San Diego
#25 – Minnesota
#24 – Chicago AL
#23 – Seattle
#22 – Kansas City
#21 – Cleveland
#20 – New York NL
#19 – Los Angeles NL
#18 – Colorado
#17 — Miami
#16 — Diamondbacks
#15 — Cincinnati
#14 — Chicago NL
#13 — Milwaukee
#12 — San Francisco
#11 — Washington

#10 — Tampa Bay
#9 – Toronto
#8 – Atlanta
#7 – Detroit
#6 – St. Louis

Philadelphia’s 2011 Ranking: #3

2012 Outlook: 63 (T-4th)
Much like they were in 2011, the 2012 Phillies are a contender built on pitching. With three of the top fifteen starting pitchers in the sport in their starting rotation, arguably the second-best closer in the game, and a combination of solid back-end starters and versatile non-closers, the pitching staff is one of baseball’s best.

While the dynamic duo of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee is getting to the age of declining skills, it’s hard to imagine either being less than an elite 6.5-WAR pitcher this season. Assuming Cole Hamels continues to develop now that he has a firmer grasp on how and when to use his cutter, the Phillies may well get more out of three starters than most rotations get out of a full quintet.

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Dissecting the Kyle Lohse Start: Beware! FIP!

Opening Day 1.5 featured a one-game series with the defending world champs, the St. Louis Cardinals, and the league’s latest makeover recipient, the Miami Marlins. Righty Kyle Lohse earned the Opening Day honors for the Cardinals on the merit of being not recently or presently injured, and much to the surprise of many, Lohse took a perfect game no hitter into the 7th inning.

His line from the game:

7.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 0 BB, 8 GB, 10 FB, 2 LD

All told, that comes to a 1.23 ERA, 1.49 FIP, 2.94 xFIP, and… a 4.22 SIERA

Everything but that SIERA number suggests Lohse had a great start. Let’s find out why.
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Comps Say Niese Extension a Good Deal

The Mets extended lefty Jonathon Niese for five years and $25.5 million, and even without the two club option years ($10 and $10.5 million respectively), the deal should be a solid one for the front office. They’ve bought out all of his arbitration years, a year of free agency, and have two friendly options — and his comps suggest that he’ll make the deal look good.

Using the new age filters on the site, we can find all the pitchers between 23 and 25 years old that pitched in the PITCH F/x era (2002+). From there, it’s a hop, skip and a jump to all 23-25 year olds that managed to induce more than 47% of their contact on the ground (Niese career GB% 49.1%), strike out more than seven batters per nine (career 7.65 K/9), walk fewer than 3.4 batters per nine (career 2.99 BB/9), and amass more than 150 innings in a season. Suddenly, Niese is in good company.
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2012 Organizational Rankings: #6 – St. Louis

Read the methodology behind the ratings here. Remember that the grading scale is 20-80, with 50 representing league average.

2012 Organizational Rankings

#30 – Baltimore
#29 – Houston
#28 – Oakland
#27 – Pittsburgh
#26 – San Diego
#25 – Minnesota
#24 – Chicago White Sox
#23 – Seattle
#22 – Kansas City
#21 – Cleveland
#20 – New York Mets
#19 – Los Angeles Dodgers
#18 – Colorado
#17 — Miami
#16 — Diamondbacks
#15 — Cincinnati
#14 — Cubs
#13 — Milwaukee
#12 — San Francisco
#11 — Washington

#10 — Tampa Bay
#9 – Toronto
#8 – Atlanta
#7 – Detroit

St. Louis’s 2011 Ranking: 13th

2012 Outlook – 60 (8th)

One down, 161 to go, right?

I think the assumption around baseball was if Albert Pujols left the Cardinals, he would leave a husk of a team behind him. If his teammates didn’t prove their worth enough throughout their playoff run in 2011, they’ll get ample chance to do so in 2012. They should be up to the challenge, as this roster was especially well suited to replacing a departing first baseman. With Lance Berkman moving in from right field to a more suiting first base and Carlos Beltran filling the hole left by Pujols, the Cardinals’ offense has a chance to repeat as the best in the National League (as measured by both runs scored and wRC+).

Throw in more games from David Freese (just 97 last year), Rafael Furcal (and therefore less Ryan Theriot) and Allen Craig (either off the bench or as an intriguing second base option) and one can make a good argument that the Cardinals can replace Pujols’s sheer star power with depth in the lineup that is unrivaled in the National League. It is a team that is solid defensively across the board as well, particularly with Daniel Descalso at second base instead of Craig.

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Daily Notes: Every Game, Previewed Inadequately

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Announcement: All-Day Chat
2. Every Game, Previewed Inadequately
3. SCOUT Leaderboards: Spring Training Batters

Announcement: All-Day Chat
FanGraphs will be hosting basically an all-day chat today, featuring many of the writers you know and love — and also the ones to whom you’re entirely indifferent.

Every Game, Previewed Inadequately
Here are all of today’s games, previewed inadequately and including the preferred television feed of FanGraphs readers, per the results of our offseason crowdsourcing project.

Boston at Detroit | 13:05 ET
Jon Lester faces AL Cy Young and MVP Justin Verlander. Ryan Raburn is scheduled to DH for the Tigers.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Boston.

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Brandon Belt Gets His Opportunity

The San Francisco Giants have finally committed to Brandon Belt. Now the team has to figure out how to best use him.

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FanGraphs Audio: Dayn Perry’s American Workout

Episode 160
After an ennui-shortened episode two weeks ago — that, coupled with the podcast’s hiatus last week — this edition of the program represents Mr. Dayn Perry’s first real contribution to the program in some time. The episode begins with Perry in the middle of a vigorous workout on his treadmill and becomes no more substantive after that.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 57 min. play time.)

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Baby Braves on Display in Gwinnett

In the first of what hopes to be a yearly tradition in the Atlanta area, the Braves matched up against an all-star team of prospects from the organization. And while the nearly 10,600 fans in attendance were there to catch a glimpse of Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and company, my interest was a handful of top prospects in the organization who had spent little-to-no time at the Rome affiliate at which I scout extensively.

The eye-opener of the evening had to be J.R. Graham, who had the least success versus big league hitters, but easily showed the most velocity in the park. From my vantage point in the auxiliary press box, I was forced to rely on the stadium gun, but feel pretty comfortable reporting velocities considering both Sean Gilmartin and Mike Minor, whom I’ve scouted previously, had readings in line with previous reports. And in Graham’s inning, every fastball was 95-96 MPH, touching 97 on two occasions. Amped up on adrenaline, the command was non-existent and the pitch was flat, but his loose arm action, combined with plus velocity, leaves him a prospect to watch intently throughout the 2012 season.

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Age Filters!

Age filtering is now available on the leaderboards for full season batting and pitching stats. This will forever be known as the Dave Cameron feature, because he’s been asking for this in increased frequency for quite a while now.

There’s lots of neat stuff you can do with this, like see all qualified batters in their age 18-24 seasons since 2005.

Or maybe which teams have benefited the most from pitchers age 30 and up since 2000.

Basically, you can now slice and dice by age to your hearts content.


2012 Organizational Rankings: #7 – Detroit

Read the methodology behind the ratings here. Remember that the grading scale is 20-80, with 50 representing league average.

2012 Organizational Rankings

#30 – Baltimore
#29 – Houston
#28 – Oakland
#27 – Pittsburgh
#26 – San Diego
#25 – Minnesota
#24 – Chicago AL
#23 – Seattle
#22 – Kansas City
#21 – Cleveland
#20 – New York Mets
#19 – Los Angeles Dodgers
#18 – Colorado
#17 — Miami
#16 — Diamondbacks
#15 — Cincinnati
#14 — Cubs
#13 — Milwaukee
#12 — San Francisco
#11 — Washington

#10 — Tampa Bay
#9 – Toronto
#8 – Atlanta

Detroit’s 2011 Ranking: 16th

2012 Outlook: 63 (T-4th)

“Custom-fitted, custom-kitted wood grain / Custom everything, what’s that on the seat? / Custom mustard stain” — Detroit-based Rapper Eminem, “Ballin’ Uncontrollably”

It must be nice to be rolling in the dough. Pizza magnate Mike Illitch finances an operation that can see one expensive star go down and yet have the resources to go and get the most expensive free agent on the market.

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