The Cleveland Indians and Asdrubal Cabrera came to terms on a two-year contract extension on Sunday that will pay the shortstop $16.5 million over the 2013-14 seasons. The deal buys out his final year of arbitration eligibility as well as his first free agent year.
Given the price, the minimal commitment, and the ability for Cabrera to test the market while still a relatively young player at a premium position, the deal lacks risk for both sides. If Cabrera’s bat continues to develop, or settles in the vicinity of last year’s production, the Indians have themselves an upper echelon shortstop on a very affordable deal. If he regresses a bit offensively and continues to struggle in the field, the deal will likely break even. That’s essentially the definition of a low-risk deal.
No matter the specific dollar-to-WAR calculation used — be it the primitive computation or one with more advanced inputs — Cabrera needs to produce somewhere around 4 WAR over 2013-14 to make the deal worthwhile. Even conservative estimates peg him surpassing that total.
But while this looks like a good deal for both sides, there are two related topics worth exploring: his poor defense with a groundball-heavy starting staff, and his trade value after last season — should the Indians have sold high on him?
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