Archive for April, 2012

Daily Notes: Notable Weekend Games

UPDATE: according to the entire internet, very celebrated prospect Bryce Harper will be making his major-league debut on Saturday. As noted below, Washington plays Los Angeles at 9:10pm ET on Saturday and 4:10pm ET on Sunday.

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Below are brief previews for notable weekend games — each including the preferred television feed of FanGraphs readers, per the results of our offseason crowdsourcing project.

Furthermore, for the benefit of those whose viewing options are limited, each day contains a preview for that day’s featured MLB.TV Free Game.

All stats current as of Thursday, except when they’re current as of Friday.

Friday, April 27th
Los Angeles AL at Cleveland | 19:05 ET
• As noted in yesterday’s edition of Daily Notes, which all of America — and probably some of the more important European countries — will have read with rapt attention, the Cleveland Indians entered Thursday with a considerably higher walk rate (13.1%) than even the next-highest team (Tampa Bay, 10.9%).
• Indeed, this trend continued on Thursday (box), with Cleveland walking five times in 38 plate appearances (13.2%) against Kansas City.
• Here are the team leaders in that regard: Carlos Santana (68 PA, 22.1% BB), Travis Hafner (64, 21.9%), and Shelley Duncan (61, 19.7%).
• In light of this stirring information, the reader is certainly forgiven for wanting to regain his breath and/or compsoure.
• After he recovers, however, the reader will also want to know that the starting pitchers for this game are Jered Weaver (29.2 IP, 65 xFIP-, 1.1 WAR) and Justin Masterson (21.2, 116, 0.0).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Los Angeles AL.

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Poor Big Pelf Heads For Surgery

Mike Pelfrey’s season is over after just three starts. The 28-year old righty is set to undergo Tommy John Surgery and will miss the rest of the 2012 season.

While all injuries are untimely, this one seemed especially so, as Pelfrey was finally starting to show signs of improving and turning the corner. Through three starts — an admittedly minuscule sample — the results were encouraging. However, more importantly, the inputs leading to those outputs were different, leading many to believe he had altered his approach to better fit his skills.

Unfortunately, for both he and the team, Pelfrey might never get to show the Mets if he finally has turned the corner. Next year is his final year of arbitration eligibility and it’s unlikely that the Mets will tender him a contract. Pelfrey will earn $5.7 million this season and his salary would only increase next season.

Given the uncertainties surrounding his eventual recovery, immediate post-surgery abilities, as well as his past track record of success (or lack thereof), it doesn’t seem very prudent for the Mets to pay him upwards of $6.5-$7 million.

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Replacing the HR Derby with a Skills Competition

We’re only three weeks into the season and MLB has already released the All-Star ballot for the 2012 mid-summer classic. That means speculation about who will participate in the Home Run Derby.

Too bad, really. I’m tired of the Home Run Derby. I’m tired of the complaints about who’s in and who’s out. I’m tired of the talk about whether participants change their swings to win the Derby. I’m tired of “back, back, back, back, back.” I’m tired of the only non-game activities during the All-Star festivities being about home runs. Because baseball is so much more than home runs.

In that spirit, I propose that the Home Run Derby be replaced with a baseball skills competition. The NBA and the NHL put on skills competitions during their all-star weekends. Sure, they’re a bit goofy, but they do a pretty good job of highlighting the different aspects of the game. Here, take a peak. First, the highlights from NBA’s 2012 Skills Competition:

Dribbling, passing, shooting. Yeah, there’s not a lot of defense involved — unless you count the human-shaped pylons. But it’s better than watching guys shoot bombs from half court.

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David Wright: Greatest Met Ever?

David Wright set the Mets’ all-time career RBI record last night, passing Darryl Strawberry, but he was already high on the list of the greatest Mets position players of all time. In fact, by Wins Above Replacement, Wright already is the G.M.O.A.T. — Greatest Met Of All Time. (Other than Tom Seaver, of course. No shame in that. Tom Terrific is probably one of the two or three best pitchers since World War II.)

He didn’t have a lot of competition, because the Mets have had more otherworldly pitchers than hitters. Mets have won four Cy Young awards — three by Tom Terrific and one by Doc Gooden — but no Met has ever won an MVP with the team. Only one Met position player has ever won rookie of the year, Strawberry. That’s not to say they haven’t had stars. Since the team was created in 1962, sixteen Met position players have been selected to multiple All-Star Games. By comparison, the Yankees have had 27, but the Braves have had just fourteen. The Mets have had great players, they just haven’t had a lot of superstars with staying power.

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FanGraphs Audio: In the Clubhouse with Jack Cust

Episode 172
David Laurila, curator of FanGraphs’ Q&A Series, talks with power-hitting journeyman and current Yankees minor leaguer Jack Cust in the clubhouse of McCoy Stadium, home of the Triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 14 min. play time.)

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Mike Newman Prospects Chat – 4/26/12


Who Should Be Closing In Chicago?

The Chicago White Sox and Oakland Athletics engaged in a marathon 14-inning contest on Wednesday afternoon that featured two blown saves, a game-tying home run from each team’s cleanup hitter, and perhaps even a budding closer controversy in the Windy City.

Left-hander Hector Santiago surprised many when he seized the closer role for the White Sox out of spring training. The 24-year-old had only pitched 5.1 innings about Double-A prior to this season — those innings came in a very brief stint with the big league club last July before getting sent back down to Double-A — but he impressed enough to be named closer this spring after surrendering only one earned run in eleven innings.

Selected by the White Sox in the 30th round of the 2006 Draft, Santiago started his professional career as a reliever, but was transitioned into the starting rotation last season. He has always been able to miss bats. His career strikeout rate in the minors was 9.6 K/9. He throws 93-94 MPH with the fastball from the left side, which is certainly a skill that does not grow on trees, but his newly-developed signature pitch – the screwball – is what has suddenly catapulted him to the big leagues. It’s the pitch that makes him different. It’s the pitch that could help him find success at the highest level.

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RE24 – insidethebook.com

This post originally appeared on insidethebook.com

One of my favorite stats is RE24, which goes by other names, like “value added” or “value added by the 24 base-out states”.

The basic idea is that you are interested in the 24 base-out states, and the outcome of the performance in each of the particular states. A HR with bases empty has a different impact than a HR with men on base. A strikeout with a runner on 3B with less than two outs is hugely impactful, while with no one on base, it is no different than any other out.

To the extent that you think a player should be recognized for that outcome in that context, then RE24 gives you exactly that.

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FanGraphs Prospect Stock Watch

Trevor May, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Current Level: AA
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 1st
Current Value: Looking Up

Like Phildelphia needs more pitching. If you’ve watched the big league club at all this season you know that the starting rotation, at least one-through-four, is pretty sick. If the organization gets tired of trotting Joe Blanton out there, though, May could be ready to help the club by the second half of the season. Currently pitching in double-A, the right-hander has given up just 12 hits in 23.0 innings of work. He’s walked a few too many batters (eight) but has 26 whiffs. After giving up just eight home runs in more than 150 innings last season May has yet to allow a ball to clear the fences in 2012. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter.

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wOBA Pitching Splits

wOBA is now available for pitchers in both the splits leaderboards and the splits player pages.