Archive for April, 2012

Kirk Rueter and Pitchers Whiffing Pitchers

Roy Halladay didn’t have his best stuff against the Padres on Saturday, even walking three consecutive batters for the first time in his career. He still managed to allow just two runs over seven innings and recorded five strikeouts in the process, which is a pretty good result for lacking his best stuff.

His strikeout total was respectable, but I couldn’t help but think that it was inflated. Two of those strikeouts came against Cory Luebke, his pitching counterpart. Outs against opposing pitchers have to be recorded somehow, but his overall line would have been less impressive with those punchouts removed. It doesn’t matter in the context of that specific game, but in evaluating true talent strikeout ability, it makes some sense to remove opposing pitchers from the equation.

It’s known and established that the major difference between both leagues is the designated hitter. Pitchers switching from the American League to the National League typically see their strikeout and walk rates improve. They get to replace David Ortiz with, well, Cory Luebke. The inverse is also true of National League pitchers making the switch to the American League.

Isn’t it possible that certain pitchers who notoriously struggled upon switching from the NL to AL did so because their strikeout rates were heavily reliant on taking advantage of fellow pitchers? This isn’t to say that striking out opposing pitchers is meaningless, but rather that it falls into a different evaluative bucket as something we may need to normalize in order to get a more accurate gauge of a true talent level.

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Wily Peralta Joins The Show

The Milwaukee Brewers have promoted Wily Peralta. The right-handed starter, ranked as the club’s No. 3 prospect, received the called on Saturday and will likely pitch out of the bullpen at the MLB level.

The burly prospect has made three starts at the triple-A level in 2012 with stellar results. In 17.0 innings of work he’s allowed just nine hits and six walks while striking out 13. Peralta has also been inducing a high number of ground-ball outs, something that has helped him survive pitching in the potent Pacific Coast League. Last season, spent mostly at double-A, the 22-year-old pitcher struck out 157 batters in 150.2 innings while again showing above-average ground-ball rates.

During the pre-season Top 15 prospect list for the Brewers I threw a Bartolo Colon comp on Peralta, as a heavy-set right-hander with good stuff (90-95 mph fastball, slider, changeup) who should be a big league workhorse with the ceiling of a No. 2-3 starter. To reach that ceiling, though, he’ll have to improve the consistency of his secondary pitches and his overall control.

Milwaukee’s No. 5 starter Chris Narveson is likely headed for season-ending shoulder surgery and reliever Marco Estrada is making the spot start on Saturday against the Colorado Rockies. Peralta should be available to relieve Estrada, if necessary, but could then take over the role going forward. The club has a strong starting rotation with the likes of veterans Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum and Yovani Gallardo at the top of the heap, so the playoff contender can easily afford to carry a rookie starter – especially one with Peralta’s potential. Even as a rookie, he could produce similar numbers to what Narveson produced between 2010 and 2011.


FanGraphs Audio: Fantasy Friday with Michael Barr

Episode 169
It’s the Fantasy Friday edition of FanGraphs Audio. RotoGraphs contributor Michael Barr joins the podcast to discuss topics of interest to the nation’s fantasy owners. Items addressed: your weekly Hector Santiago Status Update; Lance Berkman, Chris Young, and their likely replacements; Justin Morneau going forward; and how to (not?) win an ottoneu auction.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 37 min. play time.)

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Curtis Granderson Loves Right Field

Following last night’s majestic performance in which he pulled three home runs into the right field seats at Yankee Stadium, it should come as no surprise that Curtis Granderson is putting up eye-popping numbers to the pull side. He will enter play Friday with 11 hits — including six home runs — on 24 total balls in play hit to the right side of the diamond. That’s a .458 average, a 1.250 slugging percentage, and a tremendous 366 wRC+.

Granderson entered Thursday’s memorable contest with just a .208 average and a .780 OPS — all of which is fine for the early goings of the season, but nowhere near what Granderson can accomplish. In the first 12 games of the season Granderson was getting the ball to pull, where he hit .445 with an absurd 1.049 slugging percentage in 2011, but he wasn’t getting the results.

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Peter Gammons to Boston Globe: Burn Your Sources!

Peter Gammons wrote for the Boston Globe for over 30 years, from 1969 to 2000. In that time, he became the most prominent beat writer on the Boston Red Sox and one of the lead baseball analysts on ESPN, and that body of work elevated him to the Baseball Hall of Fame, when he received the 2004 J.G. Taylor Spink Award for sportswriters. But the Globe may be more disappointed than proud of Gammons at the moment.

On a sports talk radio show, Gammons criticized Globe reporter Bob Hohler, who last October famously broke the “chicken and beer” story of vast dissension within the Red Sox clubhouse down their disastrous stretch run in 2011. The images from that story, gleaned from anonymous sources, dominated the coverage of the team as manager Terry Francona was fired and general manager Theo Epstein decamped to Chicago: Francona’s alleged painkiller addictions and troubled marriage; Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Jon Lester’s lax approach to conditioning and training; and Jacoby Ellsbury’s isolation from the rest of the clubhouse.

A week ago, Gammons said that Hohler should reveal his anonymous sources. This week, he amended that to say that he wished Hohler would reveal his sources, even though he understands that Hohler is unable to do so. Gammons clarified that he was concerned about the damage the allegations had done to Francona’s further managerial chances:

The 2012 season has begun… It caused [Francona] so much harm – including essentially eliminating him from any chance at the Cardinals job – I wonder why those who spoke anonymously cannot step forward and say they were among the sources.

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FanGraphs Audio: Brian Anderson on the ’97 Series

Episode 168
David Laurila, curator of FanGraphs’ Q&A Series, joins the podcast from Fenway, with a report on the scene from the 100th anniversary celebration of the historic park. He also provides audio from a recent interview with Rays broadcaster and former Cleveland Indian Brian Anderson regarding the latter’s experience, as a Cleveland native, in the heartbreaking 1997 World Series.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 13 min. play time.)

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Has Matt Wieters “Finally” Arrived?

The Baltimore Orioles are off to a hot start, and are currently leading the American League East by a game over Tampa Bay and New York. It almost certainly will not last — raise your hand if you think the Orioles’ pitching staff will end the year with their current 3.60 ERA — but at least it is a short period of fun for the fans. It is not simply that some Baltimore pitchers have gotten off to good starts. The Orioles currently have three hitters with a seasonal wOBA of around .450: outfielders Adam Jones (.447) and Nolan Reimold (.457), and also former future franchise savior Matt Wieters (.447). Jones and Reimold are surprises, of course, but this is exactly what one would expect from the rookie catcher after his domination of the minors.

Oh, wait, Wieters is actually in his fourth year in the majors. His current .308/.413/.641 slash line might be a bit higher than what was expected of him in his 2009 rookie debut, but without singling anyone out, it is not that much higher that some had him projected back then. We all know that 2012 is a small sample, but is there a sense in which Matt Wieters might finally be “arriving?” Only if you are one of those people who did not realize that he was an excellent player prior to this season.

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FanGraphs Prospect Stock Watch

Jackie Bradley, OF, Boston Red Sox
Current Level: A+
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 7th
Current Value: Looking Up

A talented college player, Bradley’s stock slipped a bit in the 2011 draft due to injury. As a result the Red Sox organization may have gotten a bit of a steal. A potential gold glove fielder, Bradley also possesses good speed and appears to understand his own strengths. He’s currently hitting .333 with 11 walks in 12 games. He also has four steals in five attempts. If Bradley, 22, keeps hitting for average, walking and stealing bases he could end up as a real impact player at the big league level. If his hitting levels off, though, he will likely still have value at the big league level because of his glove work.

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Yankees Gary Sanchez Draws Mixed Reviews

The third time was the charm in Rome, Georgia as Gary Sanchez finally donned the tools of ignorance and led the Charleston Yankees against the Rome Braves. Having missed him twice previously, I found myself on edge during pre-game stretching, defensive drills and batting practice, finally able to breathe a sigh of relief after seeing Sanchez’ name posted on the concourse whiteboard where starting lineups are transferred to individual scorecards. Batting fifth, the two-time top-100 prospect displayed a set of tools worthy of such a lofty ranking. However, his present skills require quite a bit of faith in order to project Sanchez as a power hitting catcher at the big league level.

Video after the jump

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Toronto Calls on Drew Hutchison

Drew Hutchison has received the call to The Show.

Taken in the 15th round of the 2009 draft, Hutchison wasn’t even on the radar of a lot of teams prior to the draft. Toronto scouts, though, saw something special and convinced the organization that he was worth a $400,000 gamble. The 2009 draft was a circus for the Blue Jays organization. It signed its first overall pick, college right-hander Chad Jenkins who has been a disappointment, but then failed to sign the next three picks. Those picks included James Paxton – now one of Seattle’s top prospects, Jake Eliopoulos, and Jake Barrett – a potential first round draft pick in 2012. The selection of Hutchison and fellow top rookie Jake Marisnick, an athletic outfielder in high-A ball, could help salvage the otherwise disappointing draft.

In just his third pro season, Hutchison, at the age of 21, is now a big leaguer. He was ranked as the fourth best prospect in the Jays system during the pre-season Top 15 prospect list for the club. He had an excellent 2011 season, which saw him pitch at three different levels: low-A, high-A and double-A. After making just three starts at double-A last year, he returned to the level this season and made another three starts.

The right-hander has above-average control for his age and he mixes his pitches well. Hutchison can reach 93-94 mph with his four-seam fastball but he tends to work with a two-seamer in the 89-91 mph range with good movement. His second best pitch is a changeup and it’s a potential strikeout pitch. The third weapon is a slider, which remains inconsistent.

Hutchison likely needs more minor league seasoning. He’s been good – but not dominant – at double-A this year and has just six starts above A-ball. He’s known for having solid makeup and a tough demeanor so he should be able to handle the stress of the sudden call-up. Hutchison will make his big league debut on Saturday against the Kansas City Royals and may be up for just one start before being sent back to double-A. With Toronto in the midst of a 20-game stretch without a break, though, Hutchison could stick around.

The club also considered Joel Carreno and Jesse Chavez, both pitching at triple-A Las Vegas, for the fifth starter’s role.