Archive for May, 2012

Daily Notes, Largely Concerning Gio Gonzalez

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Washington at Atlanta, 20:05 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Washington at Atlanta, 20:05 ET
Who You’re Watching When You’re Watching This Game
If and when you’re watching this game, you’re watching — in Washington left-hander Gio Gonzalez — the pitcher who currently has the highest strikeout rate (31.5%) and fifth-best SIERA (2.81) and third-highest WAR (2.0) among qualified pitchers.

What Might Be Surprising About That
What might be surprising about that — to the equally bespectacled and muscular reader — is how effective Gonzalez has been so far, given that his season-high strikeout rate entering 2012 was last year’s 24%.

A Question the Reader Might Be Asking
A question the reader might be asking is, “Is Gonzalez throwing anything different this year that would merit such an improvement?”

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Daily Notes, Beginning with a Line by Chipper Jones

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Washington at Atlanta, 16:05 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Washington at Atlanta, 16:05 ET
Regarding Who Pitches for Washington
Right-hander Stephen Strasburg (53.0 IP, 70 xFIP-, 1.8 WAR) pitches for them.

A Notable Comment Regarding Strasburg
Here’s a recent comment — notable because of who made it — regarding Strasburg:

What We Can Say About the Aforementioned Repertoire
According to PITCHf/x, here’s Strasburg’s repertoire this season, accompanied by the average velocity and usage of each pitch:

• Four-Seam Fastball: 96.0 mph, 47.0%
• Two-Seam Fastball: 94.8 mph, 16.4%
• Curveball: 80.3 mph, 21.4%
• Changeup: 88.5 mph, 15.1%

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FanGraphs Audio: Fantasy Friday with Eno Sarris

Episode 187
Eno Sarris, editor of RotoGraphs, is the guest for this Fantasy Friday edition of FanGraphs Audio. Discussed: the new parent’s fantasy survival guide; a Dale Thayer Status Update (?!?); and the St. Louis Cardinals first-base situation.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 46 min. play time.)

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The Rockies’ Wretched Pitching

Since starting the season with a 12-12 record, the Rockies have lost 15 of their past 19 games. During this free-fall, the team has experienced a five, four and a six-game losing streak. Now, after 43 games, the team’s 16-27 record is tied for the third-worst in the franchise’s history. Needless to say, it’s been a bad stretch of baseball. And sadly, it was one that was all too predictable.

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Mauer’s Comeback: Albatross No More?

The Minnesota Twins have not had many bright spots this season, but one seems to be the return of Joe Mauer’s bat. After an injury-plagued disaster of a 2011 seasons, Joe Mauer is hitting like his old self again. After his 2-4 with a home run and a walk peformance in yesterday’s losing effort against the White Sox, Mauer now has a classic, Mauer-esque .301/.414/.423 (138 wRC+) line on the season.

One of the biggest concerns for the Twins going into the season was that they would not only be terrible (which has happened), but that if they needed to move one of their big contracts (Mauer and Morneau) for rebuilding purposes, that neither player would hit well enough to bring back much in trade given what they are owed. This is not to say that the Twins “have” to trade Mauer any time soon — if and when they should consider it is another discussion. The two-part question here a whether Mauer’s bat is really back after the mess that was 2011, and also whether he will be worth his sizable contract going forward.

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Orioles Wisely Lock Up Adam Jones

Last Friday, I wrote that if Adam Jones sustains his performance all year, he could be looking at a contract extension in the range of $120 to $140 million by selling himself as Matt Kemp Lite. Today, the Orioles are rumored to have come to an agreement with Jones on a deal for a reported $85 million over six years.

For the Orioles, getting Jones at this price is a slam dunk. Given what he’s already accomplished in the first several months of the season, Jones was going to get a significant raise in arbitration from the $6 million he’s making this year, likely putting him in line for a $10 or $11 million salary in 2013. Given that the Orioles clearly weren’t going to non-tender Jones under any scenario, we can essentially assume that part of the deal was already predetermined to a large extent, so the Orioles are essentially adding five years and $75 million or so onto their existing commitment.

Have you seen what 5/75 buys in free agency lately? Last winter, that was close to the amount C.J. Wilson signed for, but he took less money to stay on the west coast, and the Angels were buying his age 31-35 seasons. In 2010, 5/75 would have left you without enough cash to sign Adrian Beltre, but you could have won the bidding for Adam Dunn and had enough left over to sign Carl Pavano or John Buck. In 2009, that money could have gotten you really close to signing John Lackey or you could have had some leftovers if you signed Jason Bay instead. In 2008, you would have come up just shy for A.J. Burnett or outbid the Braves for Derek Lowe. In 2007, you’d have had enough for Aaron Rowand but not quite enough for Torii Hunter. I think you get the idea.

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FanGraphs Prospect Stock Watch – 05/25/12

A.J. Cole, RHP, Oakland Athletics
Current Level: A
2012 Top 15 Prospects Ranking: 3rd (Washington)
Current Value: Diminished

After a successful 2011 season in low-A ball, Cole was one of the prospects packaged up in a deal between Washington and Oakland that saw Gio Gonzalez head to the Nationals. Cole, a 20-year-old starting pitcher, was originally assigned to high-A ball to start the 2012 season but he’s since been moved back down to low-A, where he spent the ’11 season. The right-hander posted a 7.82 ERA in 38.0 innings in the California League. He walked just 10 batters but allowed 60 hits and seven home runs. In his first start back in low-A, Cole gave up eight runs (five earned) on 12 hits in 5.0 innings. Clearly the struggles in Stockton messed with his head so it may be some time before he irons out his game. Despite the hiccup in his career, Cole remains healthy and has a high ceiling. He’s just going to need a little longer to develop than expected.

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Fernando Rodney Is Ricky Vaughn

Fernando Rodney’s 2012 season is redefining relief domination. The veteran flamethrower is turning into the real life version of Ricky “Wild Thing” Vaughn, transforming from a wild pitcher who never harnessed his stuff into one of the surest ninth innings in baseball. Rodney will carry a 38 FIP- and an incredible 11 ERA- into his next appearance. It’s only 22.2 innings, but Rodney would need to walk 25 batters and allow 15 runs in his next 9.1 innings to equal his totals from 32 innings last season.

Ricky Vaughn didn’t find the strike zone until manager Lou Brown discovered that his fireballer needed glasses. It’s unclear if Joe Maddon, pitching coach Jim Hickey or some other Rays coach is the Lou Brown in Rodney’s story, but Rodney definitely has his own version of Vaughn’s glasses this season. Observe, Rodney’s release point in 2012, compared to 2011:

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Daily Notes, Featuring Actual Transaction News

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Actual Transaction News: Three Recent Promotions
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Actual Transaction News: Three Recent Promotions
The following players were promoted from the minors recently. Here we answer the question, “Who are they?”

Player: Quintin Berry, OF, DET
Line: 187 PA, .270/.368/.321 (.377 BABIP) at Triple-A
Notes: The 27-year-old Berry was recalled on Wednesday to replace Austin Jackson (abdomen) and has now batted leadoff twice and played center field in consecutive games. He actually has shown some ability to get on base in the minors (.091 isolated patience), but might see some of those walks evaporate owing to his lack of power (.071 ISO in minors).

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Orioles Should Aggressively Pursue Oswalt

Roy Oswalt is getting closer to signing a contract, and while his reported preference is to pitch for one of the Rangers, Cardinals or Braves, the surprising first-place Orioles are quickly emerging as a dark horse candidate for his services. The Orioles may have lost a recent waiver claim to the Rangers based on their better record — which is still strange to type — but an aggressive pursuit of Oswalt, with a relatively lofty salary for three months, may pry him away from the Rangers, the current favorites in his sweepstakes.

The Orioles have been diligent in their pursuit to date, with Dan Duquette avoiding the topic or speaking in generalities when Oswalt is mentioned. Though he may not want to reveal his hand, the club has to have interest in Oswalt on some level.

Pitching is one of their biggest needs — despite relatively strong performance early on — and he is the perfect type of pitcher for the Orioles to pursue: he won’t cost a ton for half of a season, won’t require a commitment beyond this season, and is frankly better than some currently staffed rotation members.

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