Archive for June, 2012

Kevin Youkilis: Welcome to Mount Olympus


The traveling Greek God of Walks.

Sunday afternoon, the Boston Red Sox sent Kevin Youkilis to Chicago’s south side. Drafted, crafted and debuted as a Red Sox player, Youkilis now joins only the second team of his career.

His numbers this season have taken a precipitous decline with injuries, but as recently as 2011, Youk’ had a 127 wRC+ and 3.7 WAR while playing primarily third base. In short: For a White Sox team hurting for third base production, this trade could turn into a major fleecing for the south siders.

Let’s see how.
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Making Sense of Wade Miley

Excluding Brandon Beachy, who will be sidelined for the remainder of the season due to Tommy John surgery, left-hander Wade Miley has the second-best ERA in all of baseball.

The same Wade Miley who compiled a forgettable 5.08 FIP in his 40-inning cup of coffee with the big league club last season. The same Wade Miley who failed to make our Top 15 D-Backs prospects prior to the season. The same Wade Miley who began the season in the bullpen and didn’t make his first start until April 23 against Philadelphia.

And yet, the 25-year-old Louisiana native boasts a 2.19 ERA and 2.88 FIP, including eight innings of one-run baseball against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday evening. His +2.5 WAR is higher than pitchers more traditionally thought of as aces, such as Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw, and Felix Hernandez. In his first full season in the big leagues, he is not only a leading candidate for Rookie of the Year, but he also possesses an extreme outside chance to walk away with the NL Cy Young, if his stellar performance continues.

That’s really the question, though. Can Wade Miley continue his unexpected dominance?

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Jose Bautista’s Strange Season

Jose Bautista is once again performing at a very high level after a slow start to the season. He has produced 2.4 WAR in 72 games, and ranks 11th in the American League with a .381 wOBA. He is tied for the league lead with 23 home runs and is currently on pace to pass the 40 HR plateau for the third straight year. Despite his homer-happy ways, however, Bautista only ranks ninth in the league in slugging percentage at .533.

The major culprit is his batting average on balls in play. At a ridiculously low .201, Bautista has not had much success turning balls in play into hits. A greater percentage of his hits are home runs, which are excluded from the BABIP calculation, and his rate of singles and doubles is below the norm. In other words, while a .381 wOBA is fine for anyone to hang his head on, Bautista has actually been held back this season.

It seems strange for someone to produce so effectively with such a low BABIP, which got me thinking: has anyone ever finished a season with a wOBA as strong as Bautista’s current .381 mark with as extremely suppressed a batting average on balls in play?

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Daily Notes: Very Early Returns on First-Round Picks

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Very Early Returns on Some First-Round Picks
2. Notable MLB Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Very Early Returns on Some First-Round Picks
What This Is
It has come to the attention of the author that a number of first-round picks from the recent draft have not only (a) already signed with the organizations by which they were selected, but also (b) been assigned to, and started playing for, minor-league teams within those organizations.

What This Is, Part II
With the above in mind, the author has made use of his Google machine — in addition to sites like Baseball America, Minor League Central, Baseball Reference, and (of course) the present one — with a view to compiling a list of signed draft picks, along with the minor-league clubs and levels to which they’ve been assigned, and also their very earliest statistical returns.

Regarding What Is the Point of This
To change the world, mostly.

Regarding What Else Is the Point of This
For reference sake, also.

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Daily Notes: It’s R.A. Dickey Night in America

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: New York AL at New York NL, 20:00 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: New York AL at New York NL, 20:00 ET
Some of the News That’s Fit to Print
Some news that’s fit to print in the present electronic pages is how R.A. Dickey starts tonight for the Mets in their game against the Yankees.

Some News That’s Probably Less Fit to Print
Some news that’s less relevant to these pages, for example, is how British novelist Martin Amis is bringing “macho literary firepower” to Brooklyn.

Regarding Dickey, His Season This Season
Here’s R.A. Dickey’s season line to date (with ranks among 110 qualified starters in parentheses): 99.0 IP (10th), 27.5% K (4th), 5.6% BB (23rd), 53.1% GB (16th), 2.55 SIERA (2nd), 70 xFIP- (3rd), 2.6 WAR (6th).

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Daily Notes: Morales Rides Again, Metaphorically


Fun-Loving? Check. Totally Sentient? Double-Check.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Daily Notes.

1. Featured Game: Atlanta at Boston, 19:15 ET
2. Other Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Today’s Complete Schedule

Featured Game: Atlanta at Boston, 19:15 ET
Regarding the Title of This Post, What It Refers To
The title of this post refers to how left-hander Franklin Morales is making his second start of the season — and over, like, the last four seasons — for the Boston Red Sox tonight.

The Title of This Post, To What Else It Refers
Apparently, the film Destry Rides Again, is what, a 1939 Western starring Marlene Dietrich and James Stewart.

The Title of This Post, To What the Author Thought It Referred
Herbie Rides Again, actually, a 1974 comedy film about a fun-loving and totally sentient Volkswagen Beetle.

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Angelo Gumbs’ Elite Bat Speed

On a Charleston team featuring what may be the deepest roster in minor league baseball, New York Yankees Angelo Gumbs stood out as having the best bat speed of the bunch. Now 19, the former second round pick originally signed for $750,000 as a centerfielder considered to be strong on tools, but short on actual baseball skills. Two years later, Gumbs is more than holding his own in full season baseball offensively and has made a move on defense to the keystone position. And while a .274/.322/.444 line including 22/25 in stolen base attempts doesn’t jump off the stat page, age-versus-level considerations make it all the more impressive – especially considering his lack of polish.

Video after the jump

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FanGraphs Audio: Fantasy Friday w/ Ben Pasinkoff

Episode 203
RotoGraphs contributor and real-live Fantasy Expert™ Ben Pasinkoff is the guest on this Fantasy Friday edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Discussed:
• This question and the answer to it: “How good does a reliever — one who’s not getting saves — how good does have to be to roster in a traditional 5×5 league?”
• Three starters who’ve recently made MLB debuts — their near and less near futures.
• Three players about to make their season debuts — what sort of a damn they’re worth.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 37 min. play time.)

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The Pirates and Contextual Improvements

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 36-32, two games back in their division and one game behind the Mets or Giants for the second wild card spot. The last time the Pirates were playing this well was July 25, 2011, after James McDonald pitched very well in a road game against the Braves. The next night, the Pirates lost the infamous 19-inning contest and were never the same again. They won 19 of their final 61 games and finished 72-90.

Losing that particular game wasn’t the real reason the team floundered down the stretch. Their pitching was solid but the offense was relatively inept. Some pitchers regressed after performing above their heads, but the offense never improved. It wasn’t a talented enough core, and their prized deadline acquisition — Derrek Lee — got hurt after five games and essentially missed a month. His gaudy .337/.398/.584 slash line with the Pirates was misleading, as he returned to action after the team was clearly out of the race.

Ryan Ludwick didn’t help matters either, as he sputtered after joining the team. However, despite my inclinations at the time, the Pirates were smart to look for players like Lee and Ludwick. While those players are perceived as marginal upgrades if used in specific roles for most offenses, the Pirates didn’t have most offenses. These players weren’t costly and potentially represented significant improvements to the Pirates situation.

Seeing as they are approaching similar territory this year, the team has another important decision to make: go for broke and trade valuable prospects for impact major league talent, or look for this year’s version of Lee and Ludwick.

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Todd Helton: Do Not Retire Just Yet

Rockies first baseman Todd Helton committed an error on Wednesday night — couldn’t get his foot on the bag — and Colorado lost. The 38-year-old hall-of-fame contender has the second-worst numbers of his career — .332 wOBA and 99 wRC+, not counting his abbreviated first season in 1997 — and he is becoming the scapegoat of a miserable Rockies team.

Who would blame Helton for calling it a career? He has 8,044 plate appearances, 354 home runs and 61.8 WAR on his resume. He has been a solar flare among bottle rockets.

But if we dig into his 2012 numbers, we find baseballing pride of Tennessee should have a few more years left in his bat.
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