2015 ZiPS Projections – St. Louis Cardinals

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the St. Louis Cardinals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / San Francisco / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
Cardinal batters produced the best strikeout rate and second-best defensive-runs figure in the National League last year. The club’s ZiPS projections suggest that they might approximate those sorts of results in 2015. Neither Matt Adams nor Mark Reynolds will be much help in that regard, but the rest of the team’s starters are all above-average by one, if not both, of those measures.

Nor will Jason Heyward change the club’s dynamic at all in this regard. He’s projected to save 18 runs in right field (which equates to about 10-11 runs above average overall after the positional adjustment) while recording walk and strikeout rates both better than league average. Less publicized acquisitions by the club — like of Dean Anna (14.9% K and -1 run at shortstop) and Ty Kelly (16.2% K and -1 run at second base) — also offer strong contact rates and average to above-average defensive skills.

Pitchers
The Cardinals rotation this April will, it appears, very much resemble the one deployed by the club last September. John Lackey, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, and Adam Wainwright recorded 24 of the team’s 26 starts during that month. Miller, largely on account of how he’s been traded to Atlanta, won’t be available to the Cardinals. The other four, however, are expected to occupy he top-four slots in the rotation, with Carlos Martinez filling the fifth role. ZiPS projects each of them to produce league-average numbers or better.

Closer Trevor Rosenthal walked batters at exactly twice the rate in 2014 as he had in 2012-13 combined — this, while also striking out fewer batters. Not a great confluence of events, that, but also not one that spells imminent doom, according to ZiPS, which projects Rosenthal to regress positively by both metrics. New acquisitions Matt Belisle and Jordan Walden, meanwhile, are forecast to produce the fourth- and third-best FIPs among all Cardinals pitchers — behind only Rosenthal and Wainwright.

Bench/Prospects
The Cardinals feature not only a deep rotation — insofar, that is, as their fifth starter is projected to produce two wins — but also substantial depth behind that rotation. Tim Cooney, Marco Gonzales, Tyler Lyons, and Zachary Petrick are all forecast to record at least a win — or the major-league equivalent of a win — in 2015. Among field players, Randal Grichuk is expected to occupy a bench role for the parent club. He’s exhibited above-average power, but a lack of plate discipline (he’s projected to post 4.0% and 21.4% walk and strikeout rates, respectively) limits his ceiling for now.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Cardinals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Yadier Molina	R	32	C	508	50	136	29	0	11	55	5	2
Jason Heyward	L	25	RF	597	83	142	28	3	16	63	14	4
Jhonny Peralta	R	33	SS	543	53	131	31	1	15	61	2	2
Matt Carpenter	L	29	3B	630	88	150	35	4	9	62	4	3
Matt Holliday	R	35	LF	584	79	140	30	1	20	80	4	2
Kolten Wong	L	24	2B	552	65	135	21	5	11	50	21	5
Jon Jay	L	30	CF	530	61	133	21	3	5	50	10	5
Ty Kelly	B	26	2B	555	67	125	20	2	9	53	7	3
Peter Bourjos	R	28	CF	311	40	70	11	5	6	29	9	2
Matt Adams	L	26	1B	501	54	132	28	2	17	64	2	1
Cody Stanley	L	26	C	385	36	87	14	2	6	34	5	1
Dean Anna	L	28	SS	424	54	90	19	4	5	40	2	3
Ed Easley	R	29	C	310	33	71	14	1	6	30	1	2
Pete Kozma	R	27	SS	490	52	99	24	2	5	45	7	4
Randal Grichuk	R	23	LF	593	73	139	31	5	20	67	8	7
Thomas Pham	R	27	CF	284	32	66	11	5	5	26	8	2
Greg Garcia	L	25	2B	479	52	98	19	3	5	34	8	4
Scott Moore	L	31	3B	481	52	101	25	1	11	48	1	1
Mike O’Neill	L	27	LF	500	55	123	18	4	1	33	8	6
Aledmys Diaz	R	24	SS	567	61	129	27	3	14	60	15	6
Stephen Piscotty	R	24	RF	547	59	134	30	1	8	47	10	5
Mark Ellis	R	38	2B	293	27	61	9	1	2	27	4	1
Breyvic Valera	B	23	2B	603	61	158	17	6	0	43	11	11
Jacob Wilson	R	24	2B	363	37	74	19	1	7	34	3	3
Rafael Ortega	L	24	CF	420	43	91	12	4	5	30	17	11
Greg Miclat	B	27	2B	300	29	64	10	1	1	17	14	3
Luis Mateo	R	25	SS	390	37	84	16	1	4	30	9	7
Mark Reynolds	R	31	1B	479	57	91	17	0	20	59	3	2
Joey Butler	R	29	LF	396	43	87	18	1	8	33	2	2
Tony Cruz	R	28	C	155	13	32	7	1	1	18	0	2
Patrick Wisdom	R	23	3B	530	49	100	20	4	11	47	5	1
Xavier Scruggs	R	27	1B	535	56	103	23	2	15	54	5	4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Yadier Molina	508	6.3%	11.0%	.134	.310	.292	.340	.426	.332
Jason Heyward	597	10.1%	17.3%	.155	.306	.269	.348	.424	.344
Jhonny Peralta	543	7.9%	17.7%	.158	.301	.265	.326	.423	.329
Matt Carpenter	630	11.0%	15.6%	.128	.317	.276	.360	.404	.337
Matt Holliday	584	10.4%	16.6%	.181	.304	.275	.348	.456	.359
Kolten Wong	552	5.6%	15.2%	.125	.297	.264	.310	.389	.310
Jon Jay	530	6.6%	15.3%	.090	.332	.284	.352	.374	.318
Ty Kelly	555	10.1%	16.2%	.104	.294	.254	.333	.358	.312
Peter Bourjos	311	6.1%	24.1%	.140	.320	.251	.310	.391	.310
Matt Adams	501	5.0%	22.2%	.176	.332	.281	.317	.457	.335
Cody Stanley	385	4.4%	22.3%	.100	.297	.242	.276	.342	.273
Dean Anna	424	9.4%	14.9%	.113	.276	.243	.322	.356	.300
Ed Easley	310	6.1%	18.1%	.119	.289	.249	.301	.368	.296
Pete Kozma	490	7.3%	18.8%	.098	.269	.223	.284	.321	.266
Randal Grichuk	593	4.0%	21.4%	.181	.287	.248	.285	.429	.310
Thomas Pham	284	6.7%	26.4%	.137	.333	.252	.306	.389	.312
Greg Garcia	479	8.4%	21.7%	.095	.295	.232	.312	.327	.286
Scott Moore	481	6.7%	22.5%	.139	.283	.233	.300	.372	.298
Mike O’Neill	500	9.8%	9.6%	.065	.307	.278	.349	.343	.308
Aledmys Diaz	567	3.0%	22.9%	.142	.294	.244	.276	.386	.290
Stephen Piscotty	547	5.9%	12.4%	.111	.293	.266	.319	.377	.308
Mark Ellis	293	5.5%	17.7%	.064	.277	.231	.287	.295	.258
Breyvic Valera	603	4.8%	7.3%	.051	.301	.279	.314	.330	.283
Jacob Wilson	363	6.6%	20.9%	.128	.268	.225	.285	.353	.282
Rafael Ortega	420	6.9%	19.0%	.091	.286	.238	.293	.329	.274
Greg Miclat	300	7.7%	21.0%	.056	.306	.237	.302	.293	.273
Luis Mateo	390	3.6%	20.8%	.081	.284	.230	.265	.311	.251
Mark Reynolds	479	11.3%	28.4%	.184	.268	.218	.311	.402	.316
Joey Butler	396	9.6%	26.5%	.125	.329	.248	.328	.373	.313
Tony Cruz	155	5.2%	19.4%	.084	.272	.222	.266	.306	.246
Patrick Wisdom	530	5.8%	33.0%	.124	.287	.203	.251	.327	.259
Xavier Scruggs	535	8.8%	32.7%	.151	.304	.216	.297	.367	.298

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Yadier Molina	508	5.6	111	9	4.5	Terry Steinbach
Jason Heyward	597	5.6	114	18	4.4	Rusty Greer
Jhonny Peralta	543	5.0	106	6	3.7	Rich Aurilia
Matt Carpenter	630	5.4	112	-2	3.2	Denis Menke
Matt Holliday	584	6.2	126	-3	2.9	Dusty Baker
Kolten Wong	552	4.7	93	5	2.4	Martin Prado
Jon Jay	530	5.0	102	0	2.3	Del Unser
Ty Kelly	555	4.3	92	-1	1.7	Roger Holt
Peter Bourjos	311	4.6	94	5	1.6	Kenny Kelly
Matt Adams	501	5.5	112	1	1.4	Rico Brogna
Cody Stanley	385	3.5	71	6	1.4	Bob Kearney
Dean Anna	424	4.0	88	-1	1.3	Mike Moriarty
Ed Easley	310	3.9	85	0	1.1	Damian Miller
Pete Kozma	490	3.1	68	6	0.9	Nick Ortiz
Randal Grichuk	593	4.3	95	1	0.9	Edgard Clemente
Thomas Pham	284	4.5	92	-1	0.8	Herm Winningham
Greg Garcia	479	3.6	78	1	0.7	Jorge Sequea
Scott Moore	481	3.9	86	-3	0.7	Mike Pagliarulo
Mike O’Neill	500	4.4	94	0	0.7	Jim Eppard
Aledmys Diaz	567	3.9	82	-7	0.6	Danny Klassen
Stephen Piscotty	547	4.4	93	-1	0.5	John Barnes
Mark Ellis	293	3.1	63	6	0.4	Pete Suder
Breyvic Valera	603	3.7	79	-2	0.3	Ismael Gallo
Jacob Wilson	363	3.4	76	0	0.2	Ronald Garth
Rafael Ortega	420	3.3	73	1	0.2	Jamie Hoffmann
Greg Miclat	300	3.4	66	0	0.2	Doug Baker
Luis Mateo	390	2.8	60	4	0.1	Larry Infante
Mark Reynolds	479	4.3	96	-4	0.0	Ty Van Burkleo
Joey Butler	396	4.3	95	-7	-0.1	Russ Morman
Tony Cruz	155	2.5	59	-2	-0.2	Brandon Marsters
Patrick Wisdom	530	2.8	59	0	-0.6	Brad Harman
Xavier Scruggs	535	3.7	83	-3	-0.8	Mel Wearing

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Adam Wainwright	R	33	30	30	203.7	175	42	13	182	71	66
Lance Lynn	R	28	33	31	192.7	184	69	14	173	75	70
John Lackey	R	36	28	27	175.7	143	38	21	171	76	71
Michael Wacha	R	23	25	23	129.3	119	38	11	115	50	47
Carlos Martinez	R	23	28	28	150.0	128	51	9	146	65	61
Marco Gonzales	L	23	22	18	108.3	93	36	11	103	48	45
Trevor Rosenthal	R	25	75	0	77.7	103	32	5	58	24	22
Tyler Lyons	L	27	26	22	132.3	103	36	14	131	62	58
Tim Cooney	L	24	25	25	149.3	105	39	17	155	73	68
Zachary Petrick	R	25	29	19	118.0	87	38	12	118	57	53
Boone Whiting	R	25	22	20	101.3	83	40	11	99	49	46
Jaime Garcia	L	28	13	13	77.7	62	19	9	79	37	35
Mike Mayers	R	23	25	25	147.7	95	40	17	161	78	73
Jordan Walden	R	27	57	0	49.7	59	22	4	40	18	17
Samuel Tuivailala	R	22	44	0	54.7	67	29	4	44	21	20
Matt Belisle	R	35	64	0	65.7	52	17	5	63	27	25
Kevin Siegrist	L	25	57	0	52.0	62	23	5	42	20	19
Seth Maness	R	26	76	0	78.3	53	15	7	78	33	31
Sam Freeman	L	28	61	0	68.0	59	29	5	63	29	27
Joseph Donofrio	R	26	42	0	55.3	52	22	5	50	24	22
Ryan Sherriff	L	25	30	10	81.0	45	27	8	87	42	39
Dixon Llorens	R	22	39	0	47.7	62	33	4	36	20	19
John Gast	L	26	16	16	82.7	51	33	9	87	45	42
Miguel Socolovich	R	28	39	0	49.3	46	17	5	46	21	20
Tyler Waldron	R	26	22	9	69.3	44	23	7	74	36	34
Dean Kiekhefer	L	26	49	0	66.7	44	11	6	69	30	28
Randy Choate	L	39	54	0	30.0	26	10	2	26	13	12
Lee Stoppelman	L	25	46	0	52.0	49	25	5	47	25	23
Keith Butler	R	26	34	0	38.0	32	17	3	36	18	17
Jeremy Berg	R	28	53	0	73.0	51	21	7	74	35	33
Marcus Hatley	R	27	47	0	55.7	51	26	6	52	28	26
David Aardsma	R	33	35	0	35.3	31	19	4	33	18	17
Heath Wyatt	R	26	51	0	66.0	38	22	6	70	33	31
Jose Almarante	R	26	28	0	40.7	30	18	4	41	21	20
Nick Greenwood	L	27	43	8	84.0	43	26	10	92	47	44
Justin Wright	L	25	50	0	58.7	44	31	6	59	32	30

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Adam Wainwright	203.7	835	21.0%	5.0%	.282	2.92	2.90	79	79
Lance Lynn	192.7	820	22.4%	8.4%	.292	3.27	3.36	89	91
John Lackey	175.7	736	19.4%	5.2%	.282	3.64	3.75	99	102
Michael Wacha	129.3	541	22.0%	7.0%	.283	3.27	3.39	89	92
Carlos Martinez	150.0	647	19.8%	7.9%	.302	3.66	3.22	100	88
Marco Gonzales	108.3	464	20.0%	7.8%	.288	3.74	3.84	102	104
Trevor Rosenthal	77.7	323	31.9%	9.9%	.298	2.55	2.62	69	71
Tyler Lyons	132.3	564	18.3%	6.4%	.290	3.94	3.92	107	107
Tim Cooney	149.3	642	16.4%	6.1%	.292	4.10	4.14	112	113
Zachary Petrick	118.0	510	17.1%	7.5%	.289	4.04	4.01	110	109
Boone Whiting	101.3	443	18.7%	9.0%	.291	4.09	4.23	111	115
Jaime Garcia	77.7	331	18.7%	5.7%	.293	4.06	3.85	110	105
Mike Mayers	147.7	644	14.7%	6.2%	.297	4.45	4.31	121	117
Jordan Walden	49.7	211	27.9%	10.4%	.285	3.08	3.00	84	82
Samuel Tuivailala	54.7	237	28.3%	12.2%	.298	3.29	3.33	90	91
Matt Belisle	65.7	277	18.8%	6.1%	.287	3.43	3.22	93	88
Kevin Siegrist	52.0	221	28.1%	10.4%	.287	3.29	3.43	90	93
Seth Maness	78.3	328	16.2%	4.6%	.283	3.56	3.39	97	92
Sam Freeman	68.0	296	19.9%	9.8%	.293	3.57	3.85	97	105
Joseph Donofrio	55.3	238	21.9%	9.2%	.289	3.58	3.72	97	101
Ryan Sherriff	81.0	357	12.6%	7.6%	.290	4.33	4.41	118	120
Dixon Llorens	47.7	212	29.2%	15.6%	.291	3.59	3.82	98	104
John Gast	82.7	368	13.9%	9.0%	.289	4.57	4.65	124	126
Miguel Socolovich	49.3	211	21.8%	8.1%	.291	3.65	3.73	99	102
Tyler Waldron	69.3	305	14.4%	7.5%	.295	4.41	4.34	120	118
Dean Kiekhefer	66.7	280	15.7%	3.9%	.293	3.78	3.60	103	98
Randy Choate	30.0	126	20.6%	7.9%	.282	3.60	3.46	98	94
Lee Stoppelman	52.0	228	21.5%	11.0%	.288	3.98	4.05	108	110
Keith Butler	38.0	167	19.2%	10.2%	.295	4.03	3.97	110	108
Jeremy Berg	73.0	314	16.2%	6.7%	.290	4.07	3.96	111	108
Marcus Hatley	55.7	245	20.8%	10.6%	.289	4.20	4.09	114	111
David Aardsma	35.3	158	19.6%	12.0%	.287	4.33	4.46	118	121
Heath Wyatt	66.0	290	13.1%	7.6%	.291	4.23	4.20	115	114
Jose Almarante	40.7	181	16.6%	9.9%	.293	4.43	4.40	121	120
Nick Greenwood	84.0	370	11.6%	7.0%	.286	4.71	4.65	128	126
Justin Wright	58.7	266	16.5%	11.6%	.293	4.60	4.69	125	128

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Adam Wainwright	203.7	7.73	1.86	0.57	129	5.0	Rick Reuschel
Lance Lynn	192.7	8.59	3.22	0.65	115	3.8	Tom Gordon
John Lackey	175.7	7.32	1.95	1.08	103	2.6	Scott Sanderson
Michael Wacha	129.3	8.28	2.65	0.77	115	2.5	Roy Oswalt
Carlos Martinez	150.0	7.68	3.06	0.54	103	2.2	Matt Clement
Marco Gonzales	108.3	7.73	2.99	0.91	100	1.5	Blaise Ilsley
Trevor Rosenthal	77.7	11.93	3.71	0.58	147	1.5	Mark Wohlers
Tyler Lyons	132.3	7.01	2.45	0.95	95	1.4	Matt Ruebel
Tim Cooney	149.3	6.33	2.35	1.02	92	1.4	Derrin Ebert
Zachary Petrick	118.0	6.64	2.90	0.92	93	1.1	Jackie Davidson
Boone Whiting	101.3	7.37	3.55	0.98	92	0.9	Greg Aquino
Jaime Garcia	77.7	7.18	2.20	1.04	93	0.7	Mike Sirotka
Mike Mayers	147.7	5.79	2.44	1.04	84	0.7	Mike Christopher
Jordan Walden	49.7	10.68	3.98	0.72	122	0.6	Ryne Duren
Samuel Tuivailala	54.7	11.02	4.77	0.66	114	0.5	Eric Cammack
Matt Belisle	65.7	7.12	2.33	0.68	110	0.5	Mark Williamson
Kevin Siegrist	52.0	10.73	3.98	0.87	114	0.5	Darren Oliver
Seth Maness	78.3	6.09	1.72	0.80	105	0.4	Jeff Tam
Sam Freeman	68.0	7.81	3.84	0.66	105	0.4	Matt Dunbar
Joseph Donofrio	55.3	8.46	3.58	0.81	105	0.3	Kevin Barry
Ryan Sherriff	81.0	5.00	3.00	0.89	87	0.3	Mike Gallo
Dixon Llorens	47.7	11.70	6.23	0.75	105	0.2	Brian Bruney
John Gast	82.7	5.55	3.59	0.98	82	0.2	John Courtright
Miguel Socolovich	49.3	8.40	3.10	0.91	103	0.2	Jose Veras
Tyler Waldron	69.3	5.71	2.99	0.91	85	0.2	Juan Sandoval
Dean Kiekhefer	66.7	5.94	1.48	0.81	99	0.2	Chris Key
Randy Choate	30.0	7.80	3.00	0.60	104	0.2	Brian Shouse
Lee Stoppelman	52.0	8.48	4.33	0.87	94	0.0	Scott Wiggins
Keith Butler	38.0	7.58	4.03	0.71	93	0.0	Steve LaRose
Jeremy Berg	73.0	6.29	2.59	0.86	92	-0.1	Dennis Tafoya
Marcus Hatley	55.7	8.24	4.20	0.97	89	-0.2	Doug Robertson
David Aardsma	35.3	7.90	4.84	1.02	87	-0.2	Archie Corbin
Heath Wyatt	66.0	5.18	3.00	0.82	89	-0.2	Robert Paulk
Jose Almarante	40.7	6.63	3.98	0.88	85	-0.2	Paul Schneider
Nick Greenwood	84.0	4.61	2.79	1.07	80	-0.3	Corey Hamman
Justin Wright	58.7	6.75	4.75	0.92	82	-0.5	Mike Venafro

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.