A September To Forget

by
September 3, 2009

September is usually a lot of fun, with pennant races heating up and teams fighting for every last win in an effort to grab a playoff spot. This year, though, it looks like we’re in for a fairly boring month.

According to Coolstandings, the Yankees are 95.8% favorites to win the AL East. Even if the Red Sox manage to run them down, New York is still likely to win the wild card. There is basically no chance that the Yankees miss the playoffs. They’re just playing out the string at this point.

Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Los Angeles are in the same position, essentially. All three NL division leaders have 95% or better odds of winning their divisions. Colorado tried to make the west interesting, but without a miracle, it was too little, too late. Even the two division races where one team isn’t a near lock still have the potential to be decided in the first part of the month. The Angels recent skid has put them at only 76.5% likely to win the AL West, but a strong week could end that race pretty quickly.

Likewise, the Tigers are 74% likely to win the AL Central, but with a 4.5 game lead on the Twins, this one could be over soon if Minnesota falters.

The only real race in baseball is the NL wild card chase, as Colorado and San Francisco are just a single game apart. That should be fun to watch, but one playoff chase left on September 3rd? That’s not cool.

This has been a fun season, but it looks like its going to end with a whimper unless one of these seemingly impenetrable forces falls apart in the next few weeks.

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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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RKO36
16 years ago

Colarado did go on that crazy streak a few years ago (22 out of 23 or whatever it was) so the races ain’t over ’til they’re over. You never know in baseball.

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