A Win Win Deal?
Over the winter, some big names got new addresses, as we saw one of the more interesting offseasons of trading in recent history. Miguel Cabrera ended up in Detroit, while Johan Santana relocated to New York, and Erik Bedard found his way to Seattle. It’s pretty rare to see that much talent traded in one winter.
However, it’s quite possible that the most valuable asset traded this winter wasn’t involved in any of those deals. In fact, his trade didn’t garner much of a reaction at all, but in retrospect, it was one of the more interesting baseball trades we’ve seen. It was a pure baseball move, with two rebuilding organizations swapping talented pieces, with each preferring the others talented player to their own. A challenge trade for the ages, the Josh Hamilton for Edinson Volquez deal is reaping significant rewards for both clubs.
After launching his first career grand slam last night, Hamilton is now hitting .330/.379/.591, and his 12.84 BRAA ranks him second among American League outfielders through the first month of the season. Hamilton has retained his elite power while shredding some of the strikeouts that kept his average down last year, and that combination of more contact and sustained power has led to Hamilton building off of his already impressive 2007 season. At this point, everyone knows Hamilton’s back story, but it’s his play on the field that is making the human interest side of things an afterthought.
It’s not too often that a franchise can pick up a 26-year-old power hitting lefty outfielder with Hamilton’s ability right as he enters his prime, but that’s what the Rangers were able to do this winter. When you combine his skills and seemingly limitless potential with the fact that he’s years from free agency and not making any money, Hamilton’s one of the most valuable commodities in baseball today. The Rangers couldn’t be happier with how his acquisition has gone so far.
That’s not to say he came for free, of course. In Volquez, Texas gave up one of the better arms in their organization, and he’s moved right into Cincinnati’s rotation and excelled. His stuff remains top shelf, as evidenced by his combination of groundballs (57%) and strikeouts (10.1 K/9), so even with spotty command, he’s still a quality major league starter. Just 24 years old himself, and also years from free agency, the Reds are excited about the returns they’re getting from their newest pitcher.
However, when given a choice whether to build around a star outfielder or a young pitcher, the safe bet is almost always with the hitter. Even with Hamilton’s checkered past, he’s a lower risk proposition than Volquez, and the Rangers have found themselves a guy they can build the rest of their team around. Not a bad little move for Jon Daniels and company.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I’ll say that ultimately, the deal probably made more sense for the Reds. With elite prospect in Jay Bruce, it made a lot of sense for them to clear some room in the outfield and they could wonder seriously whether Hamilton’s stock would ever be higher. I’m a fan of Josh Hamilton–how can you not be–but Texas doesn’t have anything like Volquez to replace Volquez and the Reds have Bruce. For Texas, this was a fair trade, but for the Reds, well, it looks as though you could wonder whether Hamilton would be better than his particular replacement, Bruce, which is to say, basically, they got Volquez for nothing.