ALCS Coverage: Scioscia Is Nutsier

A couple days ago, Dave Cameron suggested that, on account of some of the moves Joe Girardi was making, that he (Girardi, not Cameron) might be nuts.

Here’s a question: Is it possible that Mike Scioscia is nutsier? Some of his moves involving Mike Napoli in Game Six of the ALCS suggest that it’s possible. Regard:

SORTA NUTS: Scioscia starts Jeff Mathis over Napoli.
You know the drill here: Napoli is the superior hitter; Mathis, the superior defender. Does Mathis’s D make up for Napoli’s O? The numbers are inconclusive. My gut says no. That said, my gut does a lot of disgusting things for which I’m incredibly ashamed.

Yeah, Mathis had allofasudden become a doubles-hitting maching in the ALCS, but Napoli was more or less Saunders’ personal catcher during the regular season, having caught over two-thirds of the lefty’s starts. Here are this year’s splits (courtesy of Baseball Reference, with basic stolen base numbers):

Catcher		G	PA	SB 	CS 
Jeff Mathis    	9 	253 	5  	1
Mike Napoli   	22 	552 	13  	6

Moreover, Napoli had started both of Saunders’ postseason starts — including Game Three of the ALDS, during which Napoli went 3-for-5 with two dongers and a HBP.

GENUINELY NUTS: Scioscia pinch hits for Mathis with Maicer Izturis.
This is only Sorta Nuts until you consider the fact that, after Izturis grounded out 6-4, Napoli replaced Mathis at catcher. To consider this a reasonable move, you have to believe three things:

1. That Izturis has a better chance of producing versus Mariano Rivera than Mathis.

2. That Izturis has a better chance of producing versus Rivera than Napoli.

3. That Izturis — the only middle infielder on the bench — will very probably not be needed later on.

Given the numbers, the first of these propositions is credible. Basically anyone, including Scioscia himself, would be a good bet in Mathis’s stead. The second, on the other hand, is hard to believe. Not only is Napoli both a more significant power and on-base threat overall, he also probably stood a better chance than Izturis simply by batting from the right side. As you may very well know, One Pitch Wonder Mariano Rivera has been more effective against lefties over his career. Regard:

Split   PA	BA  	OBP  	SLG  
vs RHB 	2085 	.218 	.272 	.326 
vs LHB 	2266 	.206 	.256 	.261

As for number three, it’s not a huge deal. Still, it’s enough of a reason that, if you think Napoli is anywhere near the batter Izturis is, you should leave Izturis on the bench.

SUPER NUTS: Scioscia pinch hits for Napoli with Gary Matthews, Jr.
There’s barely even anything to say about this. Dave Cameron covered almost the same exact scenario earlier in the series, writing:

I don’t even really know what to say. Matthews is a bad hitter. Napoli is a good hitter. Add in the pinch hitting penalty (players perform below their true talent level when coming off the bench to hit), and the gap just grows to a point where it’s unfathomable to think that Scioscia really believed that Matthews was the better choice to hit in that situation.

But wait, there’s more! Remember how Dave wrote this?

As a bonus, by removing Napoli in a tie game, you were then forced to go with Jeff Mathis as the catcher if the game went to extra innings (which, of course, it did). Mathis’ career wOBA is .263. He’s got all the offensive punch of Rey Ordonez, yet because of the decision to hit for Napoli in the 8th, he’d have to finish the game behind the dish.

Well, in this case, instead of finishing the game with the punchless Jeff Mathis as catcher, the Angels (had they tied, or gone ahead) would’ve had to finish off the game with [cue drum roll] Bobby Wilson. It’s hard to say exactly how punchy Wilson is on account of he’s the owner of only 13 career plate appearances. I mean, his minor league numbers are fine (.271/.316/.398 this year at Triple-A Salt Lake, with some other, better Triple-A seasons in his past), but it’s certainly not an ideal circumstance under which to give a rookie his first taste of postseason baseball.

A sidenote: Because I care about these things, I looked around the interweb to see if maybe Scioscia hated Napoli on account of some simmering blood feud going back to the Old Country. No luck on that front, unfortunately. What I did find, however, was this (courtesy of Wikipedia, which is never wrong):

When I made Mike the No. 1 catcher, the writers came to me and said, “[Competing catcher] Steve Yeager said you made Scioscia the No. 1 catcher because he’s Italian.” I said, “That’s a lie. I made him the No. 1 catcher because I’m Italian.”
—Tommy Lasorda