August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 9/13/16

august fagerstrom: My apologies for the delay. Had some technical difficulties this morning and fell behind on my post-writing. Will start this thing up ASAP, hopefully about 10 minutes or so!

august fagerstrom: ok!

august fagerstrom: let us chat1

Bork: Hello, friend! YOU’RE LATE

august fagerstrom: Hi, Bork!

august fagerstrom: Sorry for making you wiat.

august fagerstrom: wow, two typos already in five submissions. strong start.

Bork: “Technical Difficulties this morning” aka you forgot to set your alarm. I’m onto you, fagerstrom.

august fagerstrom: blame AT&T!

Aaron: Going to my first Indians game on Sunday. Any tips?

august fagerstrom: Go to right field for food and drinks during the game. Go to East Fourth street for food and drinks before/after the game

august fagerstrom: Barrio particularly recommended

The Average Sports Fan: Should the Indians just go ahead and shut Salazar down?

august fagerstrom: Probably, yeah. He’s been pretty clearly hurt for a while now. The indicators have been there since the Spring.

august fagerstrom: The way he’s been handled for most of the year is pretty puzzling.

Gabe: So Addison Russell shouldn’t have started (because Corey Seager exists), but he’s clearly shown he’s an All-Star SS, right?

august fagerstrom: Fun fact:

UZR/150, shortstops, min. 1000 innings since 2015
1. Lindor, +19.8
2. Simmons, +19.5
3. Russell, +16.8

august fagerstrom: Small sample of course, and he’s not Lindor/Simmons territory, but he’s been an incredible defensive shortstop. And DRS likes him even more than UZR.

august fagerstrom: And now the power/bat is coming around. Yeah, he’s really, really good.

Pat: Tanaka should win the cy young.

august fagerstrom: Certainly has a strong case. Gonna be like Kluber/Felix 2014, probably, where these last few starts down the stretch can play a huge role.

Pat: I know you’re not a big prospect guy, but given your Indians connection, what is the inside word on Justus Sheffield before they traded him?

august fagerstrom: More of a high-floor guy than high-ceiling, but a really valued commodity, obviously

Steve: Will 2017 see Javy Baez as a full time starter?

august fagerstrom: He pretty much is now. He’s been starting 3 of every 4 games for the last month or so

august fagerstrom: Just doesn’t have a consistent position.

august fagerstrom: Which I think is how the Cubs like him. They’ll have no problems finding him 500+ PA next year

Mr. Wilhelm: Is there anything else to Michael Pineda’s ERA/xFIP spread besides bad BABIP luck and Yankee Stadium?

august fagerstrom: At this point I think it’s certainly fair to say that he’s shown the tendency of being a true FIP underperformer

august fagerstrom: Maybe a problem pitching out of the stretch. Maybe a home run problem that xFIP can’t capture. Certainly some luck and park in there.

Erik: Are 3-WAR players generally the most underappreciated players in all of baseball? They’re comfortably above average but far enough from being superstars that they don’t really get talked about too much. A team with a lineup and rotation full of 3-WAR guys would project to 91 wins, but its stars would be guys like Piscotty, Cozart, or Hellickson.

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I think it’s hard for people to grasp that “average” is actually very valuable

august fagerstrom: Particularly when those average guys are pre-arb

Pat: Still think the Astros nab one of the two AL wild card spots?

august fagerstrom: Losing five of six since my last chat sure doesn’t help!

august fagerstrom: Sticking to my guns though

august fagerstrom: No point in turning back now

Nick: I’m mourning for Salazar…so without him, 4-man playoff rotation of Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, and..Clevenger? That’s still awesome..right?? 🙁

august fagerstrom: It still goes toe-to-toe with any other AL playoff rotation. Texas still similarly lacks depth, and Toronto arguably lacks the starpower at the front. But losing Salazar certainly gives back a good deal of Cleveland’s pitching edge

2-D: Why are pickoffs not apart of BsR? Are pickoffs included in any baserunning stat?

august fagerstrom: They are. They count as caught stealings in wSB, which is part of BsR

Harry Caray’s Ghost: Vote Bryant/Hendricks 2016. A ticket you can trust.

august fagerstrom: I’ll give you the first one

Pennsy: So what’s with the tremendous disparity between Trea Turner’s league leading Speed score and his -.5 UBR?

august fagerstrom: Well a -0.5 UBR is pretty inconsequential, and it’s a pretty tiny sample. But it probably comes from having made four outs on the bases. I wouldn’t think much/any of it.

Pat: What would Gary Sanchez need to do in these last 19 games to pass Michael Fulmer for ROY? .400 and 7 HRs ROS and lead the Yankees to the playoffs?

august fagerstrom: If the Yankees make the playoffs I’d guess there’s a groundswell movement for Sanchez to be RoY

AD: Kershaw from 6/1/15 – 6/1/16: 1.49 ERA, 31.4 K-BB, 0.73 WHIP. I don’t have a question.

august fagerstrom: The new Rich Hill “debuted” a year ago, and has a 1.74 ERA since then

august fagerstrom: also, have to fire off a tweet really quick now

august fagerstrom: one sec

august fagerstrom: tweet: https://twitter.com/AugustFG_/status/775736232621899776

august fagerstrom: the five ERA leaders over the last year play for 2 teams

august fagerstrom: non-adjusted stats make that misleading, of course, but, man.

august fagerstrom: good teams are good

Mug Costanza: We now live in a world where Freddy Galvis will have 20 homers in a single season.

august fagerstrom: wait hwat

august fagerstrom: holy shit

august fagerstrom: missed that

august fagerstrom: and a 72 wRC+

august fagerstrom: #Galvis’d

tommylasagna: what do you do when baseball season ends?

august fagerstrom: get ready for the winter meetings

E: Guys who played in the MLB: Brian Jordan, Juan Rincon, Benito Santiago, Gary Matthews Jr, Josh Fogg

august fagerstrom: damnit, I once stumbled upon an amazing Brian Jordan fun fact in a post I wrote a couple years ago but now I can’t find it

august fagerstrom: found it!

august fagerstrom: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jose-bautista-and-the-9-3-putout/

august fagerstrom: Of the 19 right field -> first base putouts from 2000-14, Brian Jordan was responsible for three of them in the year 2000 alone

august fagerstrom: still want video so bad

E: Got my Indian’s playoff tickets! If they lose Salazar for the playoffs, how much does that hurt their chances at winning it all?

august fagerstrom: You just reminded me I need to update the depth charts. They’re at 12.8%. I’ll remove Salazar now and by the end of this chat we should have updated odds

Jim Lonborg: Has Miley entered the big decline, or is his current stretch a predictable fluctuation within his basic Mileyness?

august fagerstrom: probably the latter, and that he’s just not very good to begin with

Raindog: It’s a tight playoff race and you have to start Wade Miley or Yovani Gallardo 3 more times. What should you drink to help you through this?

august fagerstrom: water, probably. the pitching might be enough to kill you, so you should think of your health.

Kevin: Given his fielding metrics, would Hosmer be more valuable to KC as a DH?

august fagerstrom: not as long as they’ve got Morales on the team

august fagerstrom: and he’s not as bad as this year’s metrics suggest

august fagerstrom: he’s just not a Gold Glove-caliber 1B

Erik: The Phillies started out surprisingly well, but then settled back down to the level of performance they were expected to have before the season started. They’ve also had underwhelming campaigns by some key future pieces (Franco, Nola) and not really any significant breakouts (except maybe Eickhoff becoming a solid #3). How does their future outlook compare to what it was before the season?

august fagerstrom: better, but it looked like they’d accelerated their rebuild by a year in June or so. now the rebuild just looks like it’s still on the same pace it was expected to be at

Big Joe Mufferaw: Are you for or against having Pete Rose in the Hall? It seems inevitable that he will be in one day, and I would hate to see it happen after he died.

august fagerstrom: I think the best / most important baseball players should be recognized in the Hall of Fame, and Pete Rose checks those boxes

JT: Does your dad have an irrational love for utility players and a general disdain for infield shifts? I feel like those are dad pre-reqs

august fagerstrom: my Dad reads FanGraphs. he’s pretty baseball-progressive, as far as Dads go. still has this weird love/hate relationship with the pitcher win, though. still trying to fix that

JD15: Watching the Cubs play defense is almost as fun as watching them hit. Russell, Baez and Heyward are elite, everyone else is above average to quite good.

august fagerstrom: watching the Cubs do anything is pretty fun

Modest Fagersbomb: Do you think Francona’s handling of Andrew Miller will lead to a wider breaking down of the fixed bullpen roles paradigm across the league?

august fagerstrom: it’ll help, particularly if the Indians make a deep playoff run, but when Ben Lindbergh had Francona on his podcast a couple weeks back, Tito made two good points. that, A, if he didn’t have Cody Allen to pitch after Miller, he couldn’t use Miller the way he does. Allen essentially serves as the “high-leverage safety net,” and if he didn’t have another elite closer after Miller, I think he’d more inclined to save Miller. and B, it’s hard to strictly implement a “high-leverage rover,” for a full season, because knowing when to warm guys up is hard

august fagerstrom: it’s a lot easier in practice than application, essentially

august fagerstrom: I think we’re moving toward smarter bullpen usage, and the Indians may well be blazing the trail, but most teams aren’t fortunate enough to be able to do it the way Cleveland’s doing it, and it’s not something that will ever be able to be done in reality the way we want to see it done in theory

Jim Lonborg: Mookie looks tired–Farrell needs to get him some days off when Benintendi comes back, even with the intense schedule.

august fagerstrom: have you tried writing him

Erik: The Cubs could set the BABIP-suppression record while being last in the league in shifts. Have they discovered a flaw in shifting that the rest of the league and the analytical community have yet to find? Or are they succeeding in spite of, rather than because of, their comparative aversion to shifting?

august fagerstrom: This has been one of the most fascinating storylines of the season to me, but without good access to the team, it’d be a tough story to tell

august fagerstrom: Would love to see a Travis Sawchik-style 2014 Pirates breakdown of this by one of their beat guys

august fagerstrom: I feel like we’ve got to be missing something.

jon: Cubs BABIP suppression update: 0.251 allowed vs. 0.297 average, 84 BABIP+. Book the record.

august fagerstrom: Craig is writing this up for today or tomorrow, I believe

Erik: Can you think of any other 80-grade minor skills like Baez’s tagging ability?

august fagerstrom: no but if anyone else can let me know so I can write about them

august fagerstrom: Michael Brantley always struck me as like a 70-grade “play the carom off the wall” outfielder, but that’s probably also partly selection bias from having seen so many of his games

Oren: Over/Under: 3.5 – Cutch’s WAR in 2017?

august fagerstrom: Over

august fagerstrom: Assuming he enters next season healthier than he entered / played the entire season this year at

Modest Fagersbomb: Kershaw, Hill, Maeda, Urias, De Leon: is this the Dodgers rotation here on out unless there’s ANOTHER injury?

august fagerstrom: should be, but honestly I’ve lost track of the DeLeon/Urias innings limits, Maeda days off per start limit, and Hill Blister Watch 2016

august fagerstrom: so I have no idea if that can work or not

Raindog: How many different players get first place AL MVP votes? How many get first place NL CY votes?

august fagerstrom: I’ll say five guys get first-place MVP votes — Trout, Donaldson, Altuve, Betts and Machado

august fagerstrom: And I’m gonna say……

august fagerstrom: five for NL Cy too? four?

august fagerstrom: Kershaw, Syndergaard, Fernandez, Hendricks probably all get votes. And then… does Bumgarner get some? Lester? Scherzer?

august fagerstrom: shit it might be like 7

august fagerstrom: I have no idea

august fagerstrom: awards be crazy this year

Big Joe Mufferaw: What is your favorite sports talk show? (Radio or TV)

august fagerstrom: Effectively Wild

august fagerstrom: I don’t watch TV or listen to the radio

august fagerstrom: Podcasts only for this guy

august fagerstrom: FG Audio a close second!

august fagerstrom: real company man here

august fagerstrom: putting our leading competitors product ahead of our own. sure to earn me a raise

Big Joe Mufferaw: Justus Sheffield last start “He peppered everywhere from 91-95 with tremendous life, the fastball especially explosive when thrown up in the zone. He also mixed in a good, hard slider and a solid change,”. Sounds like more than high floor to me.

august fagerstrom: High floor isn’t an insult

Raindog: I asked Jeff this too, curious for your pick: after Kershaw, Verlander, and Felix, what active pitcher has best HOF chances?

august fagerstrom: I guess Hamels

august fagerstrom: He’s the only other veteran guy I can really seeing getting in. Greinke’s there too but obviously this year casts a pretty big cloud over his chances

august fagerstrom: Just so hard to name any young guy with any confidence, because pitchers

august fagerstrom: CC will be an interesting case too

august fagerstrom: Really have no idea how voters will see him

august fagerstrom: I’m changing my answer to CC actually

august fagerstrom: Forgot how good his peak was. His 5-year peak WAR is actually higher than Verlander and Felix, and he leads all active pitchers with 60+ FIP and RA9-WAR

august fagerstrom: 42 five-year peak WAR same as Steve Carlton

tradcap: hi August — assuming (from his ~5 WAR 2016) a normal aging curve, is Dustin Pedroia a valid choice for HoF?

august fagerstrom: we talked about this pretty in depth last week

august fagerstrom: Pedroia/Kinsler/Cano are all on a fringe-HoF trajectory, IMO. how each one ages will determine whether they get in

Help Braves Fan: Odds Matt Kemp loses weight and comes back as a 3 WAR player with passable LF defense?

august fagerstrom: incredibly low

Andrew: Does Jered Weaver get an MLB contract this winter?

august fagerstrom: very low

JD15: Relating to my earlier question about teams relying on dingers: is there a way to find out which teams have the most WPA from homers?

august fagerstrom: seems potentially play-indexable

august fagerstrom: honestly not sure, though. sorry.

august fagerstrom: if I weren’t live-chatting right now I’d dive in for you, but that’s the thing about live-chats

Andrew: Ben Gamel or Guillermo Heredia?

august fagerstrom: literally who

Big Joe Mufferaw: Why is J.R Richard never discussed? He is one of the most fascinating pitchers in the history of the game!

august fagerstrom: he’s probably not discussed more for the obvious, tragic reason

august fagerstrom: but, yeah

august fagerstrom: J.R. Richard is a great baseball story

august fagerstrom: also, way ahead of his time as a pitcher.

august fagerstrom: remember doing a post within the last couple years where I adjusted strikeout rate for era, and Richard had a couple of the highest K%+ seasons in history

august fagerstrom: he had Corey Kluber’s current strikeout rate (~26%) from 1978-1980, when the legaue-average pitcher had literally Jered Weaver’s current strikeout rate (~13%)

august fagerstrom: insane

august fagerstrom: double league average

tommylasagna: what percentage would you give of puig wearing a dodger uni on opening day 2017?

august fagerstrom: 20%?

Erik: Is Freddy Galvis a legitimate MLB starter? Or is he just propped up by a fluky HR/FB rate and an usually good defensive season, and will fall back to more or less replacement level soon?

august fagerstrom: I mean, he’s not likely to even be a two-win player *this* year

august fagerstrom: so, even with the fluky HR/FB and sudden defensive metrics spike, he’s not been a legitimate MLB starter

Big Joe Mufferaw: Why are defensive stats so hard on 1B? They are part of 15 or so plays per game, and there is a massive difference between having a Teixeira compared to a Ryan Howard at 1B.

august fagerstrom: because basically every other player on the field could handle 1B, whereas the guy who’s actually playing 1B could not handle SS, 2B, 3B, CF, etc.

august fagerstrom: there’s inherent value in simply being able to play shortstop adequately. there’s no inherent value in being able to play first base. the guys who are playing first base are playing there as a last resort

Jock Yelich: If Yelich adds Dozier tricks, does he become the Marlins, nay the NL’s, best offensive outfielder? Yelich right now plus 15 more homers looks pretty sexy

august fagerstrom: sort of wrote this up last week: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/christian-yelich-showed-a-new-trick/

august fagerstrom: Agree with Mattingly’s quote (and yours) that Yelich + more power becomes one of baseball’s best hitters. thing is, even with a reduced ground ball rate this year, he’s still hitting a *ton* of grounders, and still isn’t pulling the ball in the air. so he’s still a pretty major adjustment away

august fagerstrom: and you could make the case for a lot of guys that if they *start doing thing X that’s totally different from what they’re doing* that they could be a better player

august fagerstrom: Agree that Yelich’s raw ability makes it easier to see that adjustment occurring. But after 3.5 years, I’ll have to see more than just what he’s done this year to believe the 25-30 homer years ready to consistently start coming

Robert: The Angels pitching staff this year has three torn UCLs (Richards, Heaney, Tropeano), a blood clot (Bedrosian), brain trauma (Shoemaker). The hitting has had some big injuries at times (Cron, Simmons, Escobar), but those guys are basically back. Is the severity of these injuries a reason to focus on 2018, or just to overhaul?

august fagerstrom: bigger issue might be that injuries to guys like CJ Cron and Yunel Escobar are viewed as “big injuries”

Borkenstein: Why is one WAR worth $8MM?

august fagerstrom: because that’s roughly what the market has dictated

august fagerstrom: that’s not something we make up. that’s something the market decides.

Guest: True or false: the only thing differentiating Russell and Seager is the former has a better glove and the latter has a .080 BABIP lead.

august fagerstrom: Seager’s got way more power, much better plate discipline, and a batted ball profile that more or less supports the BABIP

august fagerstrom: Russell’s good, but Seager is in another class

Erik: The pitcher win is a decent stat if view in the context of an entire career, and with large error bars put around it, right? There’s not reason to believe a 20-game winner is better than a 15-game winner, but we can pretty safely conclude a 300-win pitcher was better than a 150-win pitcher (from the same era). It gets more hate than it deserves because people use it poorly.

august fagerstrom: think there’s some truth to this, but then you’ve got Felix Hernandez

august fagerstrom: like literally any stat, it’s obviously better as the sample grows larger. it’s just, it still tells us so little and there’s so many more telling stats, that even over the course of a career there’s really no point in looking at it, IMO

Philip Christy: This talk of Brian Jordan reminded me of Brian Hunter. Brian Hunter once went 0 for 13 in a doubleheader (the first game went 17 innings).

august fagerstrom: wow

august fagerstrom: can someone do that now so I can write a post about it

Vince Clortho: My father is also not persuadable on pitcher wins! Dads sure do love wins

august fagerstrom: I mean, he definitely gets that they’re not a good evaluation tool, overall. but then when a pitcher (usually Corey Kluber) gives up the go-ahead run in a 3-2 game with guys on second and third in the eighth, he’ll text me something about how “winning pitchers get that out when it matters.” like I said, it’s a love/hate relationship.

august fagerstrom: also, he’s definitely going to read this chat later and laugh about it. hi, Dad

Big Joe Mufferaw: In 1984 Garry Templeton won the Silver Slugger with a .258/.312/.320 slash line good for a .633 OPS. Was that a mistake or just a horrible season for hitters?

august fagerstrom: what

august fagerstrom: holy hell, he really did

august fagerstrom: well, only four shortstops qualified for the batting title in the NL that year: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=y&type=8&season=1984&month=0&season1=1984&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d

august fagerstrom: do you have to be qualified to win the Silver Slugger? should probably know that but I dont

august fagerstrom: either way, Craig Reynolds qualified and was clearly better

august fagerstrom: Templeton didn’t even have a higher average or more RBI, so not sure how that happened

august fagerstrom: pretty weak offensive season for shortstops though

Carrotjuice: Where are the tunes? How do you baseball chat without tunes?

august fagerstrom: oh man, totally forgot to even post any

august fagerstrom: stupid lateness

august fagerstrom: I spent the first 45 minutes or so listening to the waltzes of Johann Strauss II

august fagerstrom: fun fact: The Blue Danube is my all-time favorite piece of music. its inclusion in yesterday’s Javier Baez post sent me on a Waltz kick for the last 24 hours

august fagerstrom: now I’m listening to Anderson .Paak’s “Malibu” which is fantastic:

august fagerstrom: choice cut:

Maverik312: Re: Cubs BABIP suppression

Don’t they just have elite defense? What team has better defense? Wouldn’t you expect the best defensive team to have the best BABIP suppression skills?

august fagerstrom: yeah, but there have been elite defenses before that didn’t break the all-time BABIP suppression record

august fagerstrom: It’s elite defense + great soft contact skills + some luck + probably some external factors we aren’t considering

egg: well the Cubs defense has got to be one of the best ever right? Why shift when your infield has that much range

august fagerstrom: you can still improve greatness

august fagerstrom: if Kershaw finally added a truly plus changeup, it wouldn’t make him worse

august fagerstrom: not quite the same thing, but I mean, shifting objectively seems to be a smart thing that creates more outs when batters have extreme tendencies

august fagerstrom: so I can’t see how taking advantage of those tendencies could hurt, even if you do have less incentive to do so due to the nature of your defense

august fagerstrom: it seems like maybe they’re just shifting on a micro-level

august fagerstrom: smaller, more subtle shifts for every batter rather than the generalized overshift

Scott: 80 grade minor tool: Freddie Freeman’s stretch. Dude is 6’5” and does a split to the ground with ease.

august fagerstrom: this is a good one. think I’ve noticed this with him before. maybe Hosmer, too?

Billy Heywood: Not sure if it qualifies as 80 grade or a minor skill, but I’ve noticed Jason Heyward is impossibly good at preventing in between balls from getting past him. That short hop is so difficult when running full speed, but he fields it cleanly every time

august fagerstrom: “outfielders taking direct routes to ground balls” is a favorite minor skill of mine to watch

august fagerstrom: was my favorite Juan Lagares thing when Juan Lagares was still a thing

august fagerstrom: love when the outfielder cuts the rolling ball off in the gap before it gets to the track and saves a base

Britt: Is Chisenhall an extension candidate? I saw a columnist write that and I am not so sure on Chisenhall. I find it hard to trust him.

august fagerstrom: seems pretty easily replaceable

robstl: Isn’t Baez already getting credit from advanced defensive stats for his tagging ability? He makes a tag no one else would make, even if there isn’t “bonus points” he still gets credit for his involvement in the out, no?

august fagerstrom: on a stolen base attempt, no, I don’t believe so. that goes to pitcher/catcher exclusively I believe

2-D: 80-grade minor skills- Lindor’s headfirst sliding.

august fagerstrom: of which I made note in yesterday’s post!

august fagerstrom: he is a fantastic slider

EvanC: Does Yadier Molina’s defense merit HOF induction despite only 32 career WAR? In other words, should best defensive catcher ever make it despite only being 29th in JAWS Catcher rankings?

august fagerstrom: I’m pro-Yadi Hall of Fame, and that’s going to be maybe the most interesting discussion ever when it happens 10 years from now

august fagerstrom: most interesting Hall of Fame-related baseball discussion, I mean

august fagerstrom: there have so many more interesting discussions than that, generally spekaing

A. Reitz: can we stop asking questions about the Cubs BABIP every chat? Jesus.

august fagerstrom: can you stop complaining about what we’re talking about in the chat every chat? Jesus.

august fagerstrom: every week I get precisely one complaint about what we’re talking about, and every week I look up and the commenter is A. Reitz

Jaff: What are your go to podcasts August?

august fagerstrom: Sports: Effectively Wild, FG Audio, Jonah Keri, Bill Simmons/Ringer, Sportswriters Blues (though the faux-contention between Andy and Pedro can sometimes grate on me)

Non-sports: WTF (the GOAT), Monday Morning with Bill Burr, Radiolab, Nerdist, Fresh Air, occasionally This American Life

august fagerstrom: suppose the dig on Sportswriters Blues was unncessary

august fagerstrom: it’s highly entertaining. It just sometimes gives me anxiety

august fagerstrom: that’s probably more about me than the product itself

Slamboni: Carlos Gomez says “his eyes have been opened” by Texas’ hitting coaches. Buying or selling?

august fagerstrom: Astros probably should’ve realized he was playing with his eyes closed before they cut him

The Mitt: Other 80-grade minor skill: Ellsbury’s catcher-interference swing.

august fagerstrom: this is a good one!

august fagerstrom: which Jeff already wrote about

august fagerstrom: if anyone missed it: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/jacoby-ellsbury-is-out-of-control/

Jon Hunts: How does rWAR account for defense?

august fagerstrom: DRS instead of UZR

august fagerstrom: and then BP uses FRAA

Steve: are EW and FG Audio really competing podcasts? I thought one was largely about baseball and one was largely Carson with some baseball.

august fagerstrom: “competing” maybe isn’t the right word, but there’s obviously a major overlap in readership between FG and BP

august fagerstrom: friendly competition

Dylan: Re: Cubs defense. I’ve heard some in Chicago media harping on defense saying it’s even more important in the Playoffs because “defense doesn’t slump.” Is there something to that or is defense as susceptible to hot streaks/slumps as other areas?

august fagerstrom: I strongly believe that to be a damaging misnomer

arc: who are your FOV (fun over value) MVPs?

august fagerstrom: Cueto

august fagerstrom: Hamilton

august fagerstrom: Puig

Philip Christy: If Mussina and Schilling can’t get in, hard to see Hamels or Sabathia getting in. Even Kevin Brown was better.

august fagerstrom: probably true, unfortunately

august fagerstrom: I also think voters just got their mind blown by anyone who played during the steroid era and just completely lost control over their ability to properly evaluate them

august fagerstrom: might change for current guys

august fagerstrom: Brown had a poor media reputation, too, which greatly hurt his chances

august fagerstrom: because on performance alone, if he didn’t get in, then the future pitcher HoF pool would be like 15 deep

Billy Heywood: (for JD15) Baseball Prospectus has a team’s Guillen# in their sortable stat leaderboards, that’s the percentage of runs scored via the dinger

august fagerstrom: there you go, earlier chatter!

rob deer: how much longer does kluber last as an elite guy?

rob deer: eno says his skanky fastball is gonna doom him to an early rut

august fagerstrom: already started adjusting accordingly with more curves: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/corey-kluber-jose-fernandez-and-maximizing-a-weapon/

august fagerstrom: at 30, I’d guess he has at least another couple years at ace-level before he starts his decline

Fire Kevin Cash: Longoria’s changed his approach at the plate this year to sell out for power a little more and is having one of his best offensive seasons. How does this change his HOF chances?

august fagerstrom: he’s probably in that similar Pedroia/Kinsler/Cano fringe-level trajectory where a smooth decline would get him in and a sharp decline would rule it out completely

august fagerstrom: if he plays 7 more years, losing 0.5 WAR each year starting at 4.0 next year, he’ll retire at 37 with 65 career WAR

august fagerstrom: puts him right on the bubble

august fagerstrom: extend that decline out a little bit and get to 70 and he’s probably in. make the decline more dramatic and he ends up at 55-60 and he gets trapped in the Hall of Good

august fagerstrom: the latter is always more likely than the former, but the former is certainly a possibility

Phil: 2001 one of your favorite movies too?

august fagerstrom: it is actually my favorite movie of all time, and the main reason why I have such a strong connection with The Blue Danube

august fagerstrom: well done, Phil

Ben: John Coppollela does Q&A sessions with fans on twitter & snapchat. Does any other GM in the league do that, or is Coppy just awesome?

august fagerstrom: Coppy definitely seems pretty awesome

Aladdin Sane: When comparing Seager and Russell, I think it’s more fair to say Seager has better contact skills than better plate discipline. They have essentially identical O-Swing% (and, interestingly, O-contact%), but Russell’s Z-contact and overall contact are much lower.

august fagerstrom: this is fair

Jordan: 80 grade minor tool: Jayson Werth rounding bases as far as possible, still getting back by using his slide stop

august fagerstrom: this made me laugh

august fagerstrom: definitely watching for this now

august fagerstrom: although “base-rounding” is actually a fantastic “minor 80-grade tool” idea

august fagerstrom: might be my favorite one yet

Jack: 80-grade minor skills- Josh Harrison avoiding tags

august fagerstrom: this is like the sixth guy which has been submitted for this, which in turn invalidates the 80 grades

august fagerstrom: starting to think every team has a guy whose fanbase think is the best at avoiding tags on their slides

august fagerstrom: Baez, Harrison, Lindor, Odor in today’s chat, got a couple more on Twitter yesterday

Vic Romano: Is Molina really the “best defensive catcher ever”? I haven’t done the research on it, so I don’t know if that’s something backed up by stats or just something that’s been repeated so many times that it’s assumed to be true?

august fagerstrom: BP currently has him third: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899601

august fagerstrom: 36 runs behind Ausmus at the top spot

august fagerstrom: though he’s also trailing Martin, who’s also active

august fagerstrom: and, wow, now I’m questioning myself, because if I give Yadi HoF credit for his defense, he’s 10 BWARP behind Martin, and I’d never even considered Martin for the HoF for a second

august fagerstrom: there’s some sort of Yadi pitcher staff-handling magic that I can’t ignore

august fagerstrom: I know it had a ton to do with the Cardinals player development and pitching coaches, but the fact that, like, every random, young pitcher that’s come through the Cardinals organization over the last decade has been good with Yadi being the only real constant is something that makes me love Yadi more than the numbers do (and more than I probably should) and I don’t know how to feel about it

august fagerstrom: It’s not quantifiable. And it might not even be real. But I always tack on an extra, like, 10 wins to Yadi’s career WAR for how good the Cardinals have been at pitching during his tenure there

august fagerstrom: Probably irresponsible and not grounded in reason, but sue me.

ernie camacho’s specs: If 1b is the last resort for fielders, what do you do with good left-handed infielders? Not everyone is built to play the outfield (witty Hanley Ramirez aside coming)

august fagerstrom: You put them at first.

august fagerstrom: After they fail in left.

august fagerstrom: That’s why first base is the last resort

jmarsh: Rizzo has an 80 grade for climbing on things to catch pop flies that are out of the field of play

august fagerstrom: second guy to mention this actually, forgot to push the first one through

Stinky Pete: Anthony Rizzo has 80-grade tarp and wall climbing skills. I’m still trying to figure out how he kept his balance on top of a concrete wall while wearing cleats.

august fagerstrom: taking mental note of this one for sure

jon: Yadi and the HoF: at some point, isn’t there credit for longevity, especially in a position where durability is rare?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/Gm_c_career.shtml

august fagerstrom: This is part of it, too. The generally-accepted 65 WAR threshold for HoF seems unfair for catchers

Jack: 20-grade minor skills: Andrew McCutchen throwing to the cutoff/correct base. Eric Fryer tag plays at the plate.

august fagerstrom: didn’t know there was a McCutchen cutoff guy problem

august fagerstrom: I love the little things that you only pick up on if you watch a guy daily

Erik: If somebody has ALL the 80-grade minor tools mentioned here, how many extra WAR are they worth? Does it even add up to 1?

august fagerstrom: Seems fair to me

august fagerstrom: I gotta say, this 80-grade minor tools thing is probably my favorite chat segment ever

Sonny: 80 Minor Skills: Bryce Harper’s hair flips, David Ortiz’s one button too many undone, Joey Votto’s crowd work

august fagerstrom: not baseball-specific but still worthy of notice. Particularly the Votto crowd work

august fagerstrom: Andrus/Beltre have 80-grade comedic presence too

2-D: 80-grade minor skills- Jose Ramirez’s ability to always lose his helmet and look faster.

august fagerstrom: oh, yeah. Don’t know how I missed this one.

august fagerstrom: Zack Meisel has actually been tracking this all season: https://twitter.com/search?q=jose%20ramirez%20helmet%20from%3A%40zackmeisel&src=typd

august fagerstrom: Ramirez is up to 37 helmet-flying-offs. Gotta lead the league

Aladdin Sane: Minor 80-grade skills: Heyward’s sliding grab coming in on shallow balls. Most people let those awkward balls drop or go into a dive that is much more dangerous if they miss the ball. Heyward’s slide makes the play easier and allows him to easily trap the ball if he misses to prevent doubles.

august fagerstrom: gotta find a .gif I made two years ago of Heyward doing exactly this

august fagerstrom: it’s fucking mesmerizing

august fagerstrom: I’ve watched it hundreds of times, literally

august fagerstrom: turns out it’s actually not exactly what you mentioned, I don’t think

august fagerstrom: but, still: https://gfycat.com/HealthyThinAchillestang

august fagerstrom: LOOK AT HOW SMOOTH THAT SLIDE IS

august fagerstrom: he like, glides over the grass

august fagerstrom: I think the field might be wet. But still

Me: Who catches Kluber in the playoffs? If I were Tito, I would stick with Perez.

august fagerstrom: if Gomes is on the roster it’ll be Gomes

august fagerstrom: Kluber loves Gomes

Mug Costanza: Chase Utley definitely has the 80-grade base rounding tool

august fagerstrom: and he has one of the highest BsR’s in history: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d

august fagerstrom: may very well write about this one day

tengopreguntas: Does it invalidate the 80 grade, or does it require further study to see which player is truly the craftiest of trixters

august fagerstrom: both

Jack: 20 grade minor skills- Gregory Polanco staying on the base during slides

Jon: Josh Harrison’s 80-grade minor skill is getting out of rundowns, nobody comes close IMO, and I’m not a Pirates fan

Rougned Odor: 80-grade minor skills: my left hook

Jack: 80 grade minor skills- Clayton Richard’s pickoff move

Rougned Odor: Joey Bats is lucky I only got him with my 70 grade right hook.

Aladdin Sane: Molina’s case is going to be especially odd because it doesn’t really rest on his defense, it rests on his leadership and game calling – stats which we can’t quantify at all. The entire argument is going to be Molina fans gushing about his intangibles, which will be bizarre as anything more than supplementary conversation for his HOF case.

august fagerstrom: Right, but that’s the thing. I kind of can’t stop myself from loving the Yadi intangibles angle, even if it goes against everything I believe in

august fagerstrom: I don’t know why he’s my personal exception, but he is

Erik: Where would you start a statistical investigation into “Yadi pitcher staff-handling magic”? It seems like it should exist, but the only real evidence would be in overdone storylines and in pitch-framing, which guys like Martin are apparently better at.

august fagerstrom: seems like something someone much smarter than me should do

august fagerstrom: in fact I’d be surprised if Russell Carleton hasn’t already written something about this

august fagerstrom: probably invalidating my belief

Scott: 80 grade minor tool: Brian McCann’s enforcement of the “unwritten rules” of baseball

Sonny: Rookie J Papelbon had 80 grade interview skills until someone in the front office sent him to media training. Pretty sure he thought he was a pro wrestler

tengopreguntas: 80 grade – Jay bruce’s ability to make sure his sleeve has always been properly fluffed

august fagerstrom: Love thissss

Aladdin Sane: I’d like to know who has 80-grade swing checking ability, why they do, and how much difference it makes.

august fagerstrom: Oooh! This is a really good non-silly one

august fagerstrom: I’ve come so close to writing so many “hitters who foul off a ton of pitches” posts but I can never make any sense of any of them

ernie camacho’s specs: 80 grade minor skills: Tyler Naquin’s hat height and Jose Ramirez’ strut.

august fagerstrom: wait how have I not noticed the hat thing

august fagerstrom: and yeah Ramirez’s strut is pretty great. I also loved Carson describing his body as “a little bag of flour” on Twitter the other day

august fagerstrom: one of those things that doesn’t make any sense at all until you look at him and it somehow makes perfect sense

Jordan: Minor 80-grade skill: Matt Kemp’s ability to look absolutely terrified when a sharp liner is headed his way.

mookie best: Would a guy with 20 years of averaging 3 WAR, let’s say he never breaks 5, get in the HOF? A guy needs the peak right?

august fagerstrom: Yep.

august fagerstrom: Peak is important

Guest: Jeff bagwell, 80 grade batting crouch

GarzaGifs: Antonio Alfonseca definitely had a 80 grade on the number of fingers scale.

ernie camacho’s specs: 20-grade minor skills: giambi’s sweat glands

august fagerstrom: I am legitimately lol’ing

mookie best: Do you listen to jazz? I’ve been getting into hard bop lately and now I can’t stop

august fagerstrom: I go through phases

august fagerstrom: One of those things where I always get overwhelmed by how much of it’s out there that it’s hard for me to branch out so I stick to my guys

august fagerstrom: mostly fusion stuff. Hancock and Sun Ra are the go-tos

Pat: AJ Burnett used to have an 80 grade “Pie to the face after a walk-off” back in his yankee days

august fagerstrom: seems like something Sam Miller would’ve written an 80-grade article about

ctw: is “getting HBP” too major to be a minor skill? Rizzo, Carlos Quentin, Starling Marte

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I think the thing that makes a true minor skill a minor skill is when it can’t be isolated/quantified, i.e. the tag, swim-move slides, Rizzo climbing on tarps, even base-rounding to an extent

august fagerstrom: very easy to suss out the value that those guys create with their HBPs

august fagerstrom: alrighty, I gotta bounce guys

august fagerstrom: this was my favorite chat ever, so thanks for hanging out

august fagerstrom: same time same place next week

august fagerstrom: peace!