Author Archive

FanGraphs Chat – 10/2/13

11:46
Dave Cameron: One Wild Card game down, one to go. We’ll talk playoffs, off-season, or Bud Selig succession plans. The queue is now open.

11:59
Dave Cameron: Going to start about five minutes late.

12:11
Dave Cameron: Sorry, guess it was more like 10 minutes. We’ll make it up on the back end.

12:12
Comment From JEB
% of chance that tonight’s Wild Card game is equally as entertaining as last nights?

12:12
Dave Cameron: The game itself wasn’t particularly great. That crowd really made it awesome.

12:12
Dave Cameron: So, not very high.

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Francisco Liriano’s Dominating Slider

One of the oldest cliches in baseball is that pitchers have to establish their fastball. The average Major League pitcher throws their fastball about 60% of the time, and any deviation from that can get you labeled a junkballer.

Francisco Liriano, with the Pirates season on the line, told that cliche to go pound sand.

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NL Wild Card Game Live Blog

7:59
Dave Cameron: It’s playoff time in PIttsburgh. The last time anyone said that… okay, you’ve probably had enough of those today.

7:59
Dave Cameron: But welcome back to the postseason, Pirates fans.

7:59
Dave Cameron: This should be fun.

8:02
Dave Cameron: Whoops, name added now.

8:02
Comment From TimA
good on you Pittsburgh!

8:02
Comment From bucs_lose_again
I’ve thrown up twice already. These next three hours are going to be hell.

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Reds-Pirates: The Ultimate Match-Up Game

This evening, the Reds and Pirates will square off in the NL Wild Card game, with the winner advancing to play the Cardinals starting on Thursday. Last week, I wrote up my suggestions for how Clint Hurdle should handle his pitching staff, utilizing an army of relievers to keep the Reds left-handed bats at bay. However, the Pirates are not the only team that can and should go match-up crazy today, as Pittsburgh’s line-up essentially invites Dusty Baker to play the same kind of game.

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Game 163 Live Blog

7:59
Dave Cameron: It’s Game 163! These are great. This should be fun.

8:00
Dave Cameron: If you haven’t been in a live blog here before, these are a little different than our regular chats. We won’t do as much Q&A, and this will be more of us reacting to the game as we watch it, interspersing your comments and questions when we can.

8:01
Dave Cameron: \’

8:02
Dave Cameron: Also, this is my first live blog during the puppy ownership era, so if there are sudden bouts of random letters appearing, my apologies in advance. She’s excited about snuggling with me though.

8:02
Comment From Bango
Jeff late as usual

8:02
Comment From Tom
I don’t have TBS! WTF do I do?! Postseason.tv? Dave you mentioned you were in the same boat…how are you watching tonight?

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The Value of Hunter Pence

Over the weekend, the Giants made the first big signing of the off-season, even though it wasn’t technically the off-season yet. Rather than let Hunter Pence get to free agency and potentially start a bidding war for his services, the Giants chose to sign him to a five year, $90 million contract before he got to test the market. I did a very short post in the aftermath of the deal, noting that Pence has pretty similar numbers over the last three years to what Nick Swisher did in his run up to free agency, but that the price to sign the two was pretty different. However, no decision on contract pricing is ever that simple, so let’s take a closer look at what the Giants are paying for in Hunter Pence.

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A Very Quick Note on Hunter Pence

On Monday, we’ll have a more thorough write-up of Hunter Pence’s new $90 million contract with the Giants. For now, though, I figured this comparison was kind of fun: Here’s Nick Swisher in the three years leading up to the free-agent contract he signed last winter, compared with Pence’s performance during the past three seasons.

 

Name PA AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR
Nick Swisher 1894 0.274 0.366 0.478 0.367 129 -8.8 55.1 -8.0 11.4
Hunter Pence 2034 0.283 0.342 0.469 0.352 125 7.2 64.4 -22.8 11.2

Swisher got 4/56. Pence got 5/90. Pence is a hitting free agency a year younger and is coming off a significantly better walk year season, so it’s not a surprise that Pence got more than Swisher. Plus, with baseball’s economic strength, salaries should be expected to inflate every year for the foreseeable future. This is still a pretty big gap though.


How the Pirates Should Manage the Wild Card Game

It’s not completely set in stone, but we can be pretty sure that next Tuesday, the Pirates and Reds are going to square off in the NL Wild Card game. If the Pirates sweep the Reds and the Cardinals can’t win a single game against the Cubs, then Pittsburgh and St. Louis would tie for the division title, but let’s be honest, that’s probably not happening. Without giving up entirely, the Pirates can start planning for next Tuesday’s win-or-go-home game.

So, let’s talk strategy. Last year, I appealed to the Braves to just skip the starter entirely, using Craig Kimbrel to open the game, and then mix-and-match behind him to take advantage of platoon match-ups and let the bullpen carry them to the division series. I still believe in in the theory of skipping the starter in an elimination game, but the reality is that the participants in these games are people, and they are used to set routines, and divergence from their established roles might have a negative impact on their performance. It is probably, in reality, too crazy of a strategy for any team to actually adopt.

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FanGraphs Chat – 9/25/13

12:03
Comment From juan pierres mustache
Verlander is officially a no. 2, right? 200+ innings is a big sample.

12:03
Dave Cameron: No, it’s not.

12:04
Comment From Zach
Anecdotally, it seems like we’ve seen an uptick in fantastic seasons by RPs (Kimbrel, Jansen, Holland, Uehara, etc.). Do you think it has anything to do with the concurrence of two factors 1) these are high-K specialists and 2) hitters are more tolerant of Ks? Basically, the highest-K pitchers separate themselves from the rest of the pack when hitters are striking out more often overall. This could be ridiculous. I just thought of it 10 seconds before I typed it.

12:04
Dave Cameron: I think we’ve seen a huge uptick in velocity in MLB, and now we have a whole bunch of guys who can throw 100.

12:04
Comment From Jason
What will Choo and Pence get in FA?

12:04
Dave Cameron: I’ll guess 5/75 for Choo, 6/90 for Pence.

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How the Pirates Built a Playoff Team

Last night, the Pirates won their 90th game of the season, and in the process, they clinched the organization’s first playoff berth in 21 years. You probably know that this is also their first winning season since 1992 as well, so calling this team a breakthrough for the organization is probably understating the importance of the 2013 roster. So, now that they’ve reached the postseason — or at least Game One of the playoffs — let’s take a look at how they finally overcame two decades of futility to put an excellent team together.

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