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The Major League season ends in about five weeks, which means that voting members of the BBWAA will have to submit their awards ballots during that same time period. While there isn’t any award that is going to be as divisive as last year’s AL MVP — thankfully — race, there are some interesting decisions to be made this year. So, let’s do a quick rundown of where we stand now, and who the leading contenders are as we head down the stretch.

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With several FanGraphs authors descending on Boston for the 2013 Saber Seminar, we’ve decided to put together a meet up. On Friday night, August 16th, we will be gathering at The Mead Hall in Cambridge beginning at 7 pm. The Mead Hall has over 100 beers on tap, and we’ll hang out in their upstairs area and watch the first game of the Red Sox/Yankees series.

Among the FanGraphs crew in attendance:

David Appelman
Dave Cameron
Paul Swydan
Bill Petti
Steve Slowinski
David Laurila
Carson Cistulli

Because a lot of smart baseball folks will be in town for the weekend conference, expect a few guests — perhaps some even named Bannister, Brooks, and Pavlidis, potentially — to be there as well. If you haven’t been to a FanGraphs meet up before, it’s a great time to just watch baseball and interact with others who generally think math is okay.

We look forward to seeing you guys there.

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When Adrian Beltre put up one of the best seasons in the history of baseball in 2004, it was labeled many things: an historic fluke, evidence of steroid usage, and/or the greatest example in history of a player trying to cash in on a big contract in his walk year. He went from hitting 23 home runs in 2003 to 48 in 2004, and posted a higher WAR in that one year than he had in the prior three seasons combined.

The narrative just got louder when he went to Seattle and regressed back to his prior levels in his first year under the new contract. It was called a fluke to end all flukes, or it was proof that Beltre just started juicing in order to land a huge paycheck, and then he stopped taking PEDs after he got rich off the deal. These are the conclusions people drew. These are the conclusions people still draw, 10 years later; Just do a twitter search for Chris Davis+steroids.

Well, maybe it’s time to reevaluate those conclusions, because Adrian Beltre has done it again.

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On July 31st, in need of a roster spot for newly acquired Alberto Callaspo, the A’s designated Adam Rosales for assignment. Two days later, he was claimed on waivers by the Texas Rangers, as they were scrambling for depth with the uncertainty surrounding Nelson Cruz’s suspension and appeal situation. After a brief weekend on the Rangers roster, Texas DFA’d Rosales on August 5th, and he was re-claimed on waivers by the A’s on August 8th, since they didn’t want to lose him in the first place. However, they still didn’t really have room for him on their big league roster, and when they needed a roster spot to promote Sonny Gray to pitch on Saturday, they DFA’d Rosales once again. Yesterday, he was re-claimed on waivers by the Rangers.

In two weeks, that’s two stints with the A’s and now two with the Rangers, who aren’t guaranteeing that they’ll keep him around this time either. Both teams like the positional flexibility and depth that Rosales provides, and would like to stash him in Triple-A so that they’ll have him around in case a need arises, but because Rosales is out of options, the only way to get him to Triple-A is to pass him through waivers. And Rosales is just good enough to tempt teams into claiming him so that they can then try and pass him through waivers themselves, while not being quite good enough for teams to commit to carrying him for longer periods of time.

Maybe this doesn’t all seem like a big deal, given that Adam Rosales has been getting paid the entire time, and is still on a big league roster. From that perspective, the system is working just fine, giving a Major League opportunity to a guy on the fringes of the talent pool. However, Rosales is a human being, and the practical implications of the DFA merry-go-round mean that he’s spent the last few weeks separated from his family and his belongings. There has to be a better way than this.

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For all the talk about the Royals, Braves, and Tigers, the hottest team in baseball over the last 30 days is actually the Los Angeles Dodgers. During that stretch, the Dodgers are 21-4 and have outscored their opponents 115-63. And as with any stretch of .840 baseball, it’s been a collective effort of great performances.

When it comes to run scoring, the Dodgers non-pitchers have posted a 124 wRC+, best in baseball during that stretch. On the run prevention side of things, their 61 ERA- is #2 in MLB during the past 30 days, trailing only the ridiculous pitching staff up in Detroit. You win 21 of 25 by scoring a lot of runs and not allowing your competitors to do the same, which is exactly what the Dodgers have done.

When it comes to individual performances, you’ve heard about Yasiel Puig — now drawing a bunch of walks, by the way — and Hanley Ramirez on offense and some guy named Clayton Kershaw on the mound. The Dodgers stars have been ridiculously great, justifying most of the big expenditures the front office made after new ownership took over. Brandon League and Josh Beckett might be overpaid and lousy, but despite all the jokes about the Dodgers reckless spending, most of the high paid players on the roster are earning their paychecks.

However, there are a couple of players in LA who have been a significant part of their recent dominance, and probably don’t get as much credit for the team’s success as they should. So, with all due respect to the Kershaws and the Puigs, let’s save a little recognition for Mark Ellis and Hyun-Jin Ryu.

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The Philadelphia Phillies have given the sabermetric community a lot of ammunition over the last few years. The Ryan Howard contract! $52 million for Jonathan Papelbon! Delmon Young! Even off the field, the Phillies GM gives us comments like “I don’t care about walks, I care about production.” Picking on the Phillies recently has been pretty easy, and writers from this side of the baseball spectrum have been warning of the Phillies coming demise for several years.

Now that it’s here, the Phillies were even more roundly ridiculed for not acknowledging their place on baseball’s win curve, holding on to valuable trade chips at the deadline even as they get passed by the Marlins in run differential. Rather than turn Cliff Lee, Chase Utley, and Michael Young into younger, cheaper talent, the Phillies are soldiering on with an aging, expensive club that is nearly 20 games behind the Braves in the standings. And with last night’s news of an impending Chase Utley contract extension, they seem to be digging in their heels even more.

Chase Utley will be 35 next season. The last three years, he’s played 115, 103, and 83 games, and he’ll probably end up in the low 100s again this year, unless he gets hurt before the season ends and falls short of even that mark. The team with the 29th best run differential in the majors just signed up an injury prone second baseman for his age-35/36 seasons, but unlike most of the Phillies moves over the last few years, I actually like this move for Philadelphia, and commend Ruben Amaro for getting the deal done.

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