After a rumor filled day with no real action, it looks like the last night before the trade deadline is going to bring some actual deals, and the A’s have gotten the ball rolling by picking up infielder Alberto Callaspo from the Angels in exchange for minor league infielder Grant Green.
This is an interesting trade for a number of reasons.
With the Phillies finally admitting that they’re not going anywhere fast, Ruben Amaro is talking to teams about Cliff Lee. The Red Sox are reportedly showing the most interest, and despite the fact that Boston is on Lee’s 21 team no-trade list, those are almost always negotiable, and Lee would probably rather play for a winner than an aging team with no clear path to get back on track. So, in a market that has been mostly littered with back-end starters and bullpen pieces, there’s finally a bonafide ace in play.
Make no mistake, Cliff Lee is an ace. Over the last three calendar years, Lee has thrown 660 innings and posted +16.4 WAR, coming in behind only Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and Felix Hernandez. He’s not a low FIP/high ERA guy either, as his RA9-WAR is +16.5. No matter how you evaluate pitchers, Cliff Lee is one of the best pitchers in the game. He may not be the hardest thrower in the world, but his command and overall repertoire allow him to dominate opponents just the same as if he throw 100 mph.
But acquiring Cliff Lee, Bonafide Ace, will come at a very high cost, and depending on what Philadelphia is asking for, the Red Sox might very well be better off walking away. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s bullpen upgrade day. A few hours after the Tigers added Jose Veras, the Braves got the lefty reliever they’ve been hunting for, landing Scott Downs from the Angels, and they got him for what amounts to a hill of beans.
Working against Downs’ value was his age (37), his contract (remainder of $5M salary), and his splits (basically a LOOGY at this point). Adding a couple of million in payroll for a guy who is probably a situational reliever at this point in his career seems to have been enough to scare off most bidders, because the Braves only had to give up reliever Cory Rasmus to get him.
While the Tigers had been pegged by the media as buyers of expensive proven closers, Dave Dombrowski just ignored the high profile end of the relief market and found a much better value in Jose Veras, who they acquired from the Astros today for outfield prospect Danry Vasquez and a player to be named later.
While he isn’t a big name, Veras has quietly turned into a very effective reliever. In 43 innings this year, opposing batters have a .265 wOBA against him. For comparison, hitters have a .266 wOBA against Yu Darvish, a .269 wOBA against Stephen Strasburg, a .270 wOBA against Adam Wainwright, and a .274 wOBA against Felix Hernandez. Sure, it’s easier to pitch in relief, so this isn’t exactly apples to apples, but it at least gives you an idea of the level that Veras has pitched at.
If you want a reliever-to-reliever comparison, well, how about this one?
The decision to buy or sell at the July 31st trade deadline has become more complicated with the addition of a second wild card. Two extra teams now play one post-season game, and the lure of that opportunity combined with the “anything can happen in October” mindset means that teams are reluctant to punt a season that isn’t already dead in the water.
However, with three days left until trades require passing through waivers, the line of demarcation between contender and pretender has been pretty clearly drawn. Here are Cool Standings’ playoff odds for each team in Major League Baseball:
Today is the beginning of “Hall of Fame Weekend”, where the Baseball Hall welcomes new members and celebrates its history. As you probably know, the Hall will not induct any living people this weekend, as the celebration will focus on former Yankees owner Jacob Ruppert, umpire Hank O’Day, and Deacon White, the man credited with inventing the wind-up. White is the only player going in, as he was the Veteran Committee’s choice this year, and the BBWAA famously decided that there were no worthy candidates for this summer’s inauguration.
I happen to disagree with my peers in the BBWAA, and think there is a very long list of deserving players on the ballot. I am admittedly a larger Hall guy, preferring that the game’s premier museum represent a large share of history rather than being a shrine to only the inner circle, but regardless of where you draw the line, there are HOF eligible players worthy of celebration. Let’s do just that.
It’s been in the works for a few days, and now this morning, it is finally official: the Yankees have acquired Alfonso Soriano from the Cubs in exchange for a class-A pitching prospect, widely rumored to be Corey Black. For the Cubs, though, this move is less about the prospect than it is about financial flexibility.
Soriano has about $25 million left on his contract between 2013 and 2014, and according to Buster Olney, the Yankees have agreed to absorb almost $7 million of that total, including $5 million next season. It’s not a massive pot of gold, but the Cubs are saving about the same amount of money that they used to sign Scott Feldman over the off-season, and that turned out okay. Odds are good that the Cubs are going to reinvest the savings into their 2014 club and come away with a better (and younger) player than Soriano in the process. That makes this an easy win for Chicago.
On Monday, the Rangers gave up a pretty hefty haul to acquire the rights to Matt Garza. With so many teams out of the race not selling, the prices that the few teams giving up talent can charge is very high, and so despite Garza’s impending free agency, the Cubs did very well in their return for a few months of a good-not-great pitcher. With Garza off the market, the teams hunting for starting pitching will likely now turn their attention to Jake Peavy.
Peavy doesn’t have quite same reputation as Garza does, and he probably won’t command the same kind of return. But if we actually stop and compare the two, it’s hard to make a case that Garza was the jewel of the summer and Peavy is simply a fallback plan for those who missed out on the big prize. In fact, the evidence actually suggests that Peavy might just be the better acquisition.
Thanks to our friends at Baseball Info Solutions, we have batted ball information dating back to 2002, which gives us data on 11 full seasons and 60% of the 2013 season. It might not be quite as catchy of a time frame as the “Dead Ball Era” or “Steroid Era”, but it’s our own little stretch of baseball that we care about. Sometimes I refer to it as the “UZR era”, since that’s one of the more common stats cited that uses batted ball data, but other stats have the same timeframe here on the site.
One of the more common batted ball stats cited around here is HR/FB ratio, as the data has shown to be not particularly predictive, yet can have a huge impact on a pitcher’s results. If he’s giving up fly balls that are staying in the yard, that can lead to very good results — hello, Matt Cain and Jered Weaver — but those results can also be kind of fickle, as 2013 Matt Cain is demonstrating with aplomb.
| 11:41 |
: One week until the trade deadline, but since there’s nothing really happening there, we can talk Trade Value series, playoff races, or anything else (non-fantasy) that you guys are interested in. I will note that some people complained about the five or six or however many Mariners questions I answered last week, so I’m going to put a cap on Seattle questions this week.
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| 12:01 |
Who hangs up first? Bautista for Profar + mid-tier prospect to be named later. |
| 12:01 |
: Probably the Rangers. I think they’re going to hang on to Profar and dangle him to Miami for Stanton whenever the Marlins get around to deciding to trade him.
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| 12:02 |
Brett Talley mentioned in a recent article that a roof closure in Arizona could benefit pitchers. Arizona is generally known as a hitters park. Has anyone at FG every studied if this changes when the roof is closed? For that matter, what about other parks when the roof is closed? |
| 12:02 |
: Safeco is significantly more hitter friendly with the roof closed than open. My guess is that enclosing an open stadium would push it towards neutral, as it would reduce environmental effects.
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| 12:02 |
Does McCutchen have a chance at the MVP this year? Are he and Yadi 1/2 right now? |