Author Archive

Tickets on Sale for Saber Seminar in Boston

FanGraphs is proud to be a sponsoring partner of the third Saber Seminar, a great event held each year in Boston. The two-day gathering will be held on August 17th and 18th on the campus of Boston University, and the list of 2013 speakers is pretty amazing. Along with a former Major League pitcher, current executives, scouts, and a wide range of insightful people from various industries associated with the sport, Bill Petti, Dave Allen, and myself will represent FanGraphs at the event, and you will probably find a few other FG personalities hanging around as well.

I attended the event last year, and it was one of the highlights of the year for me. There were some really great research presentations — one of the people presenting this year as a member of the Royals front office presented last year as a grad student, so I think you can guess that his presentation was pretty neat — and a lot of fascinating discussion with many of the brightest people in and around the sport. If you’re going to be in the Boston area that weekend, I highly recommend attending, and it’s probably worth traveling to Boston that weekend to take part even if you’re not a local.

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The 2013 Angels In a Nutshell

8th inning, Angels lead the White Sox 4-2. Dane de la Rosa starts the inning.

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The Myth of the Passive Hitter

Apparently, a memo went out to every major media organization that covers Major League Baseball, telling them that they should write about the ever increasing rise of strikeouts in the sport. Back in March, Tyler Kepner wrote this article for the New York Times. Last Thursday, Scott Miller did a piece on the topic for CBS Sports. On Monday, Joe Lemire tackled it at Sports Illustrated. On Tuesday, Anthony Castrovince weighed in at MLB.com. Pretty much all of them hit on the same general points, with a continuing focus being on the change in approach among hitters. Each writer notes that the rise of statistical analysis has taken some of the stigma away from the strikeout, to the point that a hitter who strikes out 150 or 200 times per year is no longer considered to be an offensive black hole.

There’s almost certainly something to that idea, as we even published an article yesterday explaining why the Braves historic strikeout pace hasn’t really hurt their offensive production. It’s hard to argue that the move towards more analytical approaches to team building haven’t decreased the emphasis on strikeouts as a measure of offensive contribution, and it’s likely that the modern front offices care much less about strikeout totals for their hitters than those of the previous generation.

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FanGraphs Chat – 5/15/13

11:43
Dave Cameron: It’s chat day again, so we’ll spend an hour or so talking about baseball related things. Not fantasy baseball related things, though, because I don’t know anything about fantasy baseball.

11:43
Dave Cameron: The queue is now open, so go ahead and get your questions in.

11:59
Comment From zack
Do you have any concerns about Strasburg other than the fact that he is a pitcher and could get hurt at any time for no reason?

11:59
Dave Cameron: No, I don’t think there’s any reason to be any more concerned than usual.

11:59
Comment From Benzedrine
Does Derek Dietrich get the starting nod the rest of the season?

12:00
Dave Cameron: Seems like a good use of playing time. When you’re not trying to win, giving chances to fringe prospects to see what they can do makes sense.

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The Absurdities of Batter/Pitcher Match-Up Numbers

With all due respect to the Dillon GeeJohn Gast match-up in St. Louis tonight, there’s one marquee pitching match-up on the schedule for tonight’s games: Felix Hernandez vs CC Sabathia in New York. Neither pitcher throws as hard as they used to, but they’ve both managed to adapt to life without their fastest fastball, and both remain among the best starting pitchers on earth.

Sabathia, in particular, is lethal against left-handed hitters. Witness his strikeout rate by batter handedness, in graph form.

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The New Question at the Top of the Draft

The first round of the Major League draft is just a little over three weeks away, and the Houston Astros will select first for the second consecutive year. Right now, the consensus belief is that there are two college pitchers — Mark Appel of Stanford and Jonathan Gray of Oklahoma — who are a step ahead of the rest, though University of San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant is putting on quite the power display and could be an option if the Astros preferred to build around bats rather than arms. However, the decision for the Astros may not be made simply on talent alone.

Last year was the first draft under the new bonus structure, which assigns a fixed amount of dollars to each team based on where they pick in the draft, with some pretty severe penalties for exceeding those limits. Now, if a team is interested in paying over the slot value for a pick, they’ll have to borrow the money for that overpayment from another pick, making the draft as much a game of cost management as it is talent acquisition.

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Pitching and Defense Wins, As Long As You Can Also Hit

If you google for the phrase “pitching and defense wins championships”, the search engine returns 28.8 million results. Even if you put the statement in quotes, requiring that the exact phrase be used, there are still 99,000 pages where Google will show you that statement being written on the web.

Not all of those pages are advocating on behalf of that statement’s truth, but some of them certainly are. And, perhaps most recently, this sentiment was argued for on MLB Now, when White Sox broadcaster Hawk Harrelson lectured Brian Kenny about the merits of statistical analysis in baseball. In that conversation, Harrelson said, among other things:

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Cubs Get A Steal With Anthony Rizzo Again

A little over a year ago, Jed Hoyer acquired Anthony Rizzo for the third time; he was an Assistant GM with Boston when the Red Sox drafted Rizzo in 2007, he was the Padres GM when they acquired Rizzo from the Red Sox in the Adrian Gonzalez deal in 2010, and then he was the GM of the Cubs when they acquired him from San Diego for Andrew Cashner in 2012. In all three cases, it looks like Hoyer came out on the winning end of the deal, as Rizzo was clearly worth a sixth round pick, is more valuable than Gonzalez by himself at this point, and is certainly a bigger building block for the Cubs future than Cashner would be.

The well traveled youngster can go buy a house now, though, as his days of getting shipped from one city to the next are likely over. Ken Rosenthal first reported that the Cubs signed Rizzo to a seven year, $41 million contract extension that includes a pair of team options, ensuring that Chicago will own his rights through his age-29 season and could retain him through his age-31 season if both options are picked up. And with that deal, it looks like Hoyer and the rest of the Cubs front office is likely to once again come out on the winning end of a deal involving Anthony Rizzo.

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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/13/13

12:00
Dan Szymborski: It begins. 30 seconds to turn down your speaker.

12:00
Comment From zack
could you see any smaller market fringe contender like Pittsburgh, Colorado, or Baltimore going all in and trying to deal for Cliff Lee?

12:01
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so. Even if they were willing, I don’t think the Phillies are living in reality land.

12:01
Comment From tylersnotes
which happens first: keppinger walk, hr, or sb?

12:02
Dan Szymborski: starting to think sun turns into a red giant first.

12:03
Comment From Archer
Espinosa vs. Daniel Murphy RoS in a 12-team H2H 5×5(OBP)?

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LINK: Bryce Harper’s Swing

On Saturday, the Washington Post published, well, I’m not sure what to call it exactly. It’s not an article. It’s part-interview, part-analysis, part-video, part-comparison. Whatever it is, it’s amazing. This is the kind of stuff that happens when you combine quality journalism with the advantages of technology. You owe it to yourself to check out this production by Adam Kilgore and friends. Even if you’re tired of the amount of coverage Bryce Harper gets, you should read this just for what it shows about what baseball journalism can be. And I, for one, am not at all tired of Bryce Harper.

The realization came to Rick Schu this spring as he sat in front of a screen, collecting baseball swings. All winter, Schu, the Washington Nationals’ hitting coordinator, had been watching “Baseball” by Ken Burns, a Christmas gift from his wife. He burned clips from the DVD and compiled classic swings — Jackie Robinson, Ted Williams, Babe Ruth. As he watched Ruth, Schu paused the video and asked himself a question: Didn’t Bryce Harper have a swing just like that?

Schu scanned through video and found film of Harper hitting. He arranged clips of Harper and Ruth side-by-side on the monitor and stopped at the moment each hitter’s bat connected with a pitch. In each still picture, he saw a stiff front leg, an uncoiling torso and a back foot lifting off the ground. “Wow,” he thought. “That’s identical.”

“They’ve got that exact same swing at contact point,” Schu said later.

Read the rest at The Washington Post.