It’s crowded. To steal a joke a friend of mine just made, there haven’t been this many elderly white men gathered in a room since Saving Private Ryan was in theaters.
Don’t worry, future dispatches will be more interesting. We’re just getting settled in.
In the age of Twitter, rarely do transactions surprise us anymore, as deals are rumored for days or weeks ahead of becoming official. Well, today, we got an old school surprise, as Jayson Werth has apparently agreed to terms with the Washington Nationals. Yes, the Nationals.
Despite expected heavy interest from Boston and Detroit among others, it appears that Washington has swooped in and stolen Werth away from the higher profile clubs. The Nationals are going to use Werth to replace Adam Dunn’s bat in the line-up, and interestingly, they should expect to see little or no change from making that switch.
Despite Dunn’s superior offensive reputation, Werth and Dunn have been really similar hitters over the last four years. By wOBA:
If you’ve found FanGraphs today because of Bill Simmons, first off, hi! If you don’t know what I’m talking about, this message on twitter from Simmons might clarify:
Just stumbled acrouss this link: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2010-trade-value-introduction/ There is no honor on the internet.
Likely due to the Adrian Gonzalez trade, it looks like Bill found the trade value series from this summer, and there is no mention of the fact that this series was adapted from the NBA version of this column that he’s been running for years. Well, Bill, I’m sorry that you found the series that way, and that it appears that I have not given you credit for the idea. Because, over the years, I’ve attempted to make it very obvious that this was your idea to begin with.
The first trade value post I ever did was in the winter of 2005, over on USS Mariner. Here is the opening paragraph of that piece:
I imagine most of you probably have read a Bill Simmons column at least once. While he’s not much of a baseball analyst, his stuff is a fun read, and he has a running column he does every year ranking the top 40 players in the NBA in terms of trade value. Analytically, its a puff piece, full of cliches and unsupported arguments that, in the grand scheme of things, mean nothing. But every year, I enjoy reading it. It’s not serious analysis, but variety is the spice of life. So, as we enter the Week Of Insane Rumors, I figured I’d kick it off with my baseball version of his idea, and rank the 40 most valuable commodities in baseball. I’ll let him summarize the rules, though I’ll change the examples for those of you who don’t follow the NBA…
His name appears in the very first sentence of the very first trade value post I ever did. When I did an update 16 months later, I again explicitly mentioned that I was doing a baseball version of Simmons’ basketball column. In 2008, when I moved the series to FanGraphs, I again gave Simmons credit as the originator of the idea. And, in the introductions of last year’s series, Simmons is noted as the originator of this series.
Four years, four posts, four times Simmons was explicitly given credit for the series. It is unfortunate that the only year that his name didn’t appear in the introduction is the one he stumbled across, which gave the false impression that I’ve tried to take his idea and pass it off as my own. I have updated that post to add in recognition once again, and if Bill feels it is necessary, I will continue to do so in future years.
Bill, sorry you found the trade value series that way. I apologize if you felt plagiarized. That was never my intention, and I have tried to make sure that you were credited for the idea.
Faced with a decision between two Adrians, the Red Sox finally settled on the younger, left-handed one, and have agreed to a deal that will bring Adrian Gonzalez to Boston. In return, the Padres are getting three of the Red Sox better prospects, but no players off their major league roster. Was this a better use of resources compared to re-signing Adrian Beltre?
Until we know what kind of money the Red Sox have to give Gonzalez in a long term extension, it is tough to say. However, we can look at the projected performances of Beltre and Gonzalez and come up with an estimated value difference, add in the cost of losing the three prospects, and come up with a spread between the two options that would make this choice more palatable for the Red Sox.
I like a lot of what Walt Jocketty has done in Cincinnati, and with the right moves to surround their young developing talent, they could be perennial contenders in the NL Central. However, Jocketty’s latest move is just not something I can support.
After picking up Bronson Arroyo’s $13 million option for 2011 in order to keep him from free agency, the Reds renegotiated the deal into a 3 year, $35 million extension that will keep him on the roster through 2013. If you needed more evidence of inflation running amok this winter, $35 million for Arroyo should be all the convincing anyone will ever need.
While it is an overused writing cliche, I can still think of no better way to drive home this point, so let’s use the old anonymous player comparison.
Relief Pitcher A: 49 IP, 1.65 BB/9, 9.00 K/9, 26.2% GB%, 3.02 FIP
Relief Pitcher B: 62 IP, 2.02 BB/9, 8.23 K/9, 32.5% GB%, 2.81 FIP
Pretty similar pitchers, right? Both are extreme flyball guys with good command and strikeout stuff. Pitcher B throws a little harder, but Pitcher A throws a curveball, giving him less of a demonstrated platoon split. Overall, they’re coming off pretty similar years.
Pitcher B is Rafael Soriano, generally considered the best closer on the market, and a guy likely to cash in with a mutli-year deal for significant money this winter. Pitcher A is Joel Peralta, who was inexplicably non-tendered last night.
Two years after getting scorned by most of baseball, Adam Dunn has reportedly landed the big deal he’s been looking for. According to the LA Times, the White Sox are on the verge of a 4 year, $56 million deal to bring Dunn to the south side of Chicago. Interestingly enough, he’s coming off almost the exact same offensive season he had the last time he was a free agent, and is two years older, but he’s getting a deal for double the years and almost triple the money of his last contract.
There seem to be several factors driving the difference. One, as we’ve noted, prices for players seem to be going up this winter. Nearly every player who has signed so far has gotten more money than expected before the winter began, and Dunn continues that trend. The median estimate from our Contract Crowdsourcing results had him signing for 3/36, and this is an extra year and several million per year more for Dunn. For whatever reason, MLB teams seem far more willing to spend on talent this winter than in the past two off-seasons.
On Monday, baseball’s winter meetings kick off down in Orlando. Over the last few years, we’ve made a point out of covering every transaction, and many rumored transactions that may or may not take place, with around the clock coverage on the site. That will continue this year, and you can expect detailed breakdowns on every move that takes place next week. But we’ll be adding a new twist this year – we’ll be on site.
Draft pick compensation is a decent enough idea in theory. By rewarding teams who cannot retain their own high-quality players with extra selections each summer, low-budget franchises should get additional prospects to try and remain competitive with those who can spend liberally in free agency. The problem is that it just doesn’t work.
