Last week, we announced our first ever Live Discussion, which will take place in Manhattan on Saturday, August 7th. Today, I wanted to expand on the announcement, and explain why we’re pretty excited for this event.

Over the years, I’ve hosted quite a few events similar to this, and they’ve always been tremendously well received. There are few places in our everyday lives where we can get together with other people who share a similar interest level in baseball and talk about the game in depth for several hours at a time, and that is what this will offer. The variety of topics we’ll be able to cover with our assortment of guests is just tremendous.

The discussion about the changing face of baseball media should be fascinating. Jonah Keri will moderate a panel that will include Will Leitch, Michael Silverman, Alex Speier, and David Biderman, all of whom have different perspectives and roles in reporting on the sport. The way the game has been covered has changed dramatically over the last ten years, and it will continue to evolve as the world moves away from printed products. Perhaps no one personifies “New Media” more than Leitch, and it will be fun to listen to those guys talk about how they view coverage of the sport.

We won’t just talk about how the game is perceived through the lens of those who cover it, however. With Mitchel Lichtman (or MGL as he’s generally known) joining us, we’ll have one of the more interesting statistical analysts in the country available to share his thoughts on where the sabermetric community is at and where its going. FanGraphs will also be represented by myself, David Appelman, Carson Cistulli, Bryan Smith, and Joe Pawlikowski, so along with MGL, we’ll be able to have some interesting discussions about what’s next in nerd stats.

Speaking of Joe P, he’s bringing the whole crew from River Ave Blues, so if you’re a Yankee fan, this will be your chance to hear the crew of the best Yankees blog chat about your team in person. If you’re a Mets fan… we’ll hopefully have an announcement about one of yours attending the event as well – that should be coming soon. As we’re holding the event in NYC, we’ll definitely spend some time talking about the local teams, and it’s been an interesting season for both.

We’re not holding this in a bingo hall, either. If you haven’t checked out The Florence Gould Hall, you’re missing out. We’re really excited to have such a tremendous venue for this event – the kind of place that will offer a relaxed, comfortable environment that still will allow everyone who attends to be able to see and hear what is going on, no matter where they’re sitting.

If you haven’t yet purchased your tickets, do so now. We’ve made every effort to keep costs down, so for $15, you’re getting tremendous value. Whether you’ve been reading the site for years or you just stumbled across it, you’ll have a good time.

I look forward to meeting you all there.

Last night, the Rangers beat the Angels 3-2 to push their lead in the AL West to six games. They did so, in large part, because Anaheim’s outfield defense is atrocious. Even Jered Weaver couldn’t hide his frustration with the fielding ability of the guys playing behind him, saying the following:

“Some things didn’t go my way there in the sixth inning or it could have been a little different game. We could be playing right now.”

“Obviously, (Vladimir Guerrero) hustled out there and turned what I thought was a single into a double.”

On Josh Hamilton’s double, Weaver stated that he “popped a changeup up.” Torii Hunter was a bit more direct, saying “Some balls dropped that probably shouldn’t have dropped.”

The misplays in the outfield isn’t a new problem for the Angels. On any given night, they have two of Juan Rivera, Bobby Abreu, and Hideki Matsui in the outfield, and none of them are exactly range monsters. Matsui can barely move at this point in his career, and as Guerrero showed last night, Abreu’s arm doesn’t scare anyone anymore either. Anaheim’s outfield defense is a big problem.

If they want to give themselves a chance to run down Texas, they should consider a drastic move – call up Peter Bourjos from Triple-A and play him everyday. Ideally, he would get to run around center field, but I’m sure that Hunter wouldn’t take that well, so they would have to settle for putting him in in a corner. Even there, Bourjos would still be such a huge defensive upgrade for the Angels that it’s worth trying.

Whether Bourjos will hit in the majors is still a question mark. He doesn’t have much power or a great approach at the plate, but he’s extremely fast and a pretty decent bunter. His upside is probably that of Juan Pierre, but right now, the Angels could use a guy like that.

Rivera and Abreu could split time between one OF spot and DH, limiting the damage the three statues can do to the pitching staff. And, at the same time, the Angels would get a chance to look at part of their future, since there’s a pretty decent chance that they’re not catching the Rangers this year anyway. Instead of trading for a first baseman, the best move the Angels can make is probably an internal one. I know Mr. Weaver would certainly appreciate the help.

And now, for the five guys who would require a team to eat more of their salary in order to trade them than any of the other players in baseball.

#5 – Alfonso Soriano, OF, Chicago

Remaining Commitments: 4 years, $72 million

Soriano has enjoyed a bounceback season, with his power returning as he’s looked healthy and still able to contribute. A lot of teams would gladly take him, if only he wasn’t paid $18 million per year through his age 38 season. Even for next year, the money isn’t that far off what he’ll produce on the field, but those last few years are going to be brutal. I’d estimate that the Cubs would have to agree to pay about $30 million of his remaining salary in order to move Soriano.

#4 – Barry Zito, P, San Francisco

Remaining Commitment: 3 years, $65 million

While Zito is certainly pitching better than he did in his first few years in San Francisco, most of his supposed improvement is a mirage. His ERA is 1.27 runs lower than his xFIP, and while he’s a guy who will post lower than average BABIPs, even he can’t sustain these kinds of results with how he’s pitching. He’s been able to get back to being a middle of the rotation innings eater, but he’s paid like an ace. The Giants would probably have to pick up between $30 and $35 million of his remaining deal in order to give him away.

#3 – Ryan Howard, 1B, Philadelphia

Remaining Commitments: 6 years, $145 million (assuming buyout will be exercised)

Like Soriano, Howard isn’t a bad player. But oh, that contract. For the next couple of years, $20 million per year for the big slugging first baseman wasn’t totally out of line with what he could produce, but the extension that he was just given could easily go down as one of the worst in baseball history. He’s a nice player being paid like one of the game’s very best, and no other team in baseball would pony up that kind of money for a non-star first baseman heading into his decline years. If the Phillies were willing to swallow $40 million of the deal, they might get some takers, but of course, they’d never do that.

#2 – Vernon Wells, OF, Toronto

Remaining Commitments: 4 years, $84 million

A hot start to the season looked like Wells may try to redeem himself, but since April ended, he’s gone back to what he was the past three years – a below average player. His occasional home runs don’t offset the rest of the problems with his game, and it will only get worse as his power erodes in the age 32-35 seasons that the rest of his contract covers. His numbers and reputation would lead to some team being willing to take him if the Jays paid about $65 million of his remaining contract, but that’s a brutal pill to swallow.

#1 – Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York

Remaining Commitment: 7 years, $174 million

When he was in Texas, Rodriguez was seen as having the biggest albatross of a contract in baseball, even though he was actually worth the money he was being paid. Now, though, he actually is the most overpaid player in the game. Age and injuries have taken him from an elite player to a merely good one, and yet he’s the game’s highest paid superstar. Worse, he turns 35 next Tuesday, and yet he’s signed for another seven years with a minimum of $174 million coming his way. In reality, it will be more than that, as he has $6 million bonuses to be paid out for hitting 660, 700, and 714 home runs, and another $6 million each if he ties and breaks the all-time HR record. If he stays relatively healthy and plays the full seven years, he could collect an additional $30 million on top of the already too-high salaries he’s due. It’s hard to think of any team that would give him $100 million for his 35-41 seasons, much less twice that. The Yankees would probably have to agree to eat something in the neighborhood of $110 to $120 million in order to move Rodriguez. Yikes, indeed.

Come talk baseball with Pat Andriola at noon.

By popular demand, here’s a follow-up to the Trade Value series – the guys on the other end of the spectrum. These guys have contracts that far outstrip their actual value, and if their current organizations wanted to ship them out, they would have to pick up a significant portion of the money they’re still owed in order to facilitate a trade. They are liabilities, not assets. We’ll do the bottom five today and then the top five later this afternoon. The higher up the list a player is, the more money his franchise would have to eat in order to get rid of him.

#10 – Aaron Rowand, CF, San Francisco

Remaining commitments (2011 and beyond): 2 years, $24 million

A colossal bust since joining the Giants in 2008, Rowand’s numbers have gotten even worse this year. He has been relegated to a part-time role, and yet the Giants still owe him $12 million per year for his age 33 and 34 seasons. The Giants would have to eat at least $15 million to move him and probably a bit more than that, though he may yet have something left to offer – the only real difference between his performance this year and the last two is his BABIP. He wouldn’t be the worst change of scenery candidate ever.

#9 – Carlos Zambrano, SP, Chicago

Remaining commitments: 2 years, $36 million

Big Z can still pitch. His 4.25 xFIP is almost exactly the same as it was last year. His ability to get people out hasn’t disappeared forever, but you’re still not going to get many people lining up to pay $18 million per year to a borderline crazy guy for the next two years. Even if he was a rational human being, he wouldn’t be worth his contract – toss in his well documented emotional breakdowns, and Zambrano is a guy that would be hard to give away. I’d imagine the Cubs will find a suitor for him, but they’re going to have to pick up most of that contract in order to make a deal happen.

#8 – Todd Helton, 1B, Colorado

Remaining Commitment: 3 years, $29 million

After re-working his deal this spring, Helton’s contract is a little bit strange. The Rockies were able to get him to defer money at a 3.5% interest rate for a few years to help them put a winner on the field this year, but it came at the cost of extending him through 2013, when he’ll be 39. Given the way he’s gone into the tank this year, you’d think Colorado would like to have a mulligan on that extension. He was a good player last year, so maybe he’ll find his power again and bounce back, but I don’t see any teams going for that experiment.

#7 – Travis Hafner, DH, Cleveland

Remaining Commitment: 2 years, $29 million

Once one of the game’s premier first baseman, Hafner is now a mediocre DH. He still has a decent approach at the plate, but his power is mostly gone, and injuries have taken a toll on his body. He’s not a bad hitter, but he’s not appreciably better than what most teams could get from picking through the scraps at Triple-A, where at least they might find a guy with some upside. Hafner comes with none, but he does carry a nearly $15 million per year salary for the next two years.

#6 – Carlos Lee, OF, Houston

Remaining Commitment: 2 years, $37 million

Like Rowand, Lee isn’t as bad as his numbers suggest, as he’s being done in by a low BABIP. But you don’t exactly expect a 34-year-old, “big boned” guy to leg out many infield hits, and both his LD% and HR/FB% suggest he’s just not hitting the ball as hard as he used to. Given that he’s a bad defender, there’s not much left to like if the thump is gone for good. Hard to see any team paying more than a fraction of the $18.5 million per year he’s due over the next two years.

Back in April, I noted how Tim Lincecum’s velocity just continued to decline, and how he had transformed into an entirely different pitcher than he was coming out of college, but that he’d been able to maintain his dominance despite the shift in skills. Specifically, I remember telling Erik Manning that we could start worrying about Lincecum’s velocity loss once it started affecting his performance.

Well, commence worrying.

Last night, Lincecum faced the Dodgers, and while the game was more notable for what happened later, it was probably the worst he’s ever thrown as a major leaguer. Results wise, he didn’t even make it through the fifth inning, gave up five runs, walked three, hit a batter, and only managed to strike out two of the 24 batters he faced. Stuff wise, it was even worse.

His fastball averaged 89 MPH, and the hardest pitch he threw all night was 91.8 MPH. He wasn’t even able to sustain that, however, as he was down to sitting in the 87-88 MPH range by the end of his performance. Via BrooksBaseball, the graph of his velocity from last night tells the story.

It was notable that his fastball was down when he was throwing 91-94. Last night, he was several ticks below that, and since a brilliant April, it’s been a struggle for Lincecum. Here’s his splits by month:

April: 1.78 BB/9, 10.85 K/9, 49.4% GB%, 2.25 xFIP
May: 5.70 BB/9, 9.91 K/9, 50.5% GB%, 4.10 xFIP
June: 3.38 BB/9, 9.56 K/9, 41.6% GB%, 3.23 xFIP
July: 3.38 BB/9, 7.09 K/9, 44.3% GB%, 4.06 xFIP

From 2007 to 2009, Lincecum had two months (June 2007, September 2007) where his xFIP was over 4.00. He’s now done it two of the last three months. He’s never had a month with a strikeout rate as low it is right now in July.

In his start prior to last night, he threw a complete game shutout, his fastball averaged 92 MPH, and he hit 95 a couple of times. It looked like he might be getting back on track, even though he only had five strikeouts. But, after last night’s no stuff/no command outing, it seems clear that something is going on. The Giants are in the midst of a pennant race, but they also owe it to their ace to make sure he’s alright. And right now, he doesn’t look like alright.

Perhaps, like Madison Bumgarner, he just needs a few starts to get some things straightened out and the velocity will come back. We can’t conclude simply from lessened velocity and poor performance that Lincecum is hurting – only he and the doctors know that. If I’m the Giants, though, I’d want to know 100 percent that there’s nothing structurally wrong before I let him take the mound again. The version of Lincecum who pitched for San Francisco last night won’t help them win anything anyway.

Just 10 days from the trade deadline and a few days removed from the Trade Value series wrapping up – should have lots to talk about today.

There are few pitchers in baseball as interesting (or, if you’re a Marlins fan, frustrating) as Ricky Nolasco. Consider this fluky little statistic, for instance:

2008, K/BB ratio: 4.43
2009, K/BB ratio: 4.43
2010, K/BB ratio: 4.43

Based on that, we’d like to call him Mr. Consistency. Except, if you’ve watched him pitch, he’s been anything but. In 2008, he was pretty darn good, throwing 212 innings and posting a 3.52 ERA in a breakout season. While he sustained most of his underlying performance last year, his ERA shot up to 5.06, as his BABIP rose to .336 and his LOB% was a crazy low 61%. Most of us had him pegged for a bounceback year, as his luck was bound to improve, but it hasn’t been the full return to form we expected. His BABIP is still .324 and now he’s giving up more HR/FB too, so his ERA (4.66) once again doesn’t come close to his xFIP (3.73).

Despite having good stuff and strong peripherals, he’s more Javier Vazquez than Roy Oswalt at this point. Like Vazquez, Nolasco simply allows more runs to score than we’d expect based on his numbers.

Five years ago, Dave Studemund introduced a formula to predict LOB% from a pitcher’s xFIP. As you can see in the chart, there’s a pretty strong correlation between the quality of a pitcher and how many runners he leaves on base.

Nolasco, a good pitcher, should have posted a LOB% of about 74.2 percent over the last three years, based on Studes’ formula. In fact, if you look at the average LOB% for all pitchers with a K/BB ratio of 3.00 or higher in that time frame, the average is 74.6%, and Nolasco has the fourth highest K/BB ratio of that entire group.

Instead, his actual LOB% since 2008 is 69.1%, the second lowest in baseball among qualified starting pitchers. He’s ahead of only Brian Bannister, and he’s stranded about the same amount of runners as Livan Hernandez and Nick Blackburn. Clearly, he’s better than those guys.

What’s the deal? Well, his high BABIP is almost entirely concentrated in situations with runners on base. With the bases empty, his career BABIP is .290, but if you put a runner on, its .326. Most pitchers are better from the wind-up, but this is an extreme split. The league average BABIP with the bases empty is .295 versus .304 with a man on base.

The sample is too small to say this is evidence of Nolasco doing something wrong, as we’re still just dealing with 600 innings of data, but it’s something to keep an eye on. Vazquez has almost 2,600 innings in the big leagues and has a career LOB% of just 70.9%, significantly lower than the 73.8% that is predicted based by his xFIP. It is at least within the realm of possibility that these two share a common trait that cause them to perform worse out of the stretch.

Only time will tell, but it’s an area worth looking into.

Okay, so, the list has been revealed – now, let’s talk about some of the questions that came up during the last week, including about some of the more notable guys that didn’t make it.

Probably the most discussion centered around Roy Halladay. He is unquestionably the best pitcher in baseball today, and the contract he just signed with the Phillies is both below his market value and short enough to not saddle a team with a potential albatross. He’s a highly valuable asset, no doubt. However, as we just saw over the last year, the actual market for Halladay’s services is significantly smaller than the theoretical one, because he holds a full no-trade clause that he puts to maximum use.

The Blue Jays spent months working on potential deals for their ace, but in the end, they were limited to just a few options, as Halladay’s NTC ruled out most of the teams in baseball as potential trade partners. Because of his selectiveness, there’s just no way the Phillies could drum up enough of a competition for his services to get one of the guys from this list in return. We just saw Toronto work for months to deal Halladay, eventually settling for multiple guys nowhere near this list in value, and they had to pick up a significant portion of his 2010 salary in order to pull that off.

He’s a great pitcher, the best in baseball, and he’s underpaid relative to the market. But part of why he’s underpaid is because he’s not willing to open himself up to go to any of the 30 MLB teams, limiting the potential demand for his services. That gets reflected in his actual trade value, and is the main reason why he didn’t make the list.

The other name pitcher who didn’t make the cut was Dan Haren. While his ERA is higher than usual this year, his underlying performance shows that he’s still one of the better pitchers in the game, and he’s proven to be a durable workhorse. However, when I talked with folks in MLB about him, the reaction to what they’d give up for him was surprisingly lukewarm.

The main issue that was brought up is that he’s a guy whose best skill is command and has achieved most of his success in the National League. There’s a good amount of skepticism about NL arms without top-shelf stuff, and Haren was lumped into that category. Combine that with his escalating salaries (he’s due $40 million over the next three seasons), and I just couldn’t get anyone in the game to get very excited about giving up premium talent to acquire him.

I was pretty surprised, honestly. He started out in the 30s on my original list, but by the end of the weekend, he just missed the cut. The sense that I got in Anaheim was that guys like us like him more than major league teams do.

Moving on to the hitters who didn’t make the cut, there’s one group that certainly took a beating from where they ranked last year – young, athletic center fielders. Last year, Grady Sizemore (#12), Matt Kemp (#14), Adam Jones (#19), B.J. Upton (#21), and Curtis Granderson (#22) all scored very highly in this series. This year, none of them made the cut, as almost all of them have taken steps backwards in their development (and Sizemore got hurt).

Maybe it’s just a coincidence that five somewhat similar players have all regressed in the last year. That’s certainly possible. Also possible – I overrated that particular skillset. Besides Sizemore, all of those guys have issues making contact and general problems with the strike zone, which has been exploited by MLB pitchers this year. For all their physical gifts, they had a pretty big flaw, which was perhaps too easily overlooked by focusing on what they did well.

For those arguing for Carlos Gonzalez’s inclusion on this year’s list, I’d suggest those guys offer a pretty significant warning. Aggressive hitters can be easy outs when pitchers figure out how to get them to chase, and it takes a pretty special talent to succeed long term with that approach.

Thanks for participating, everyone. It was a fun exercise, and we’ll do it again next summer. And yes, by popular demand, coming later this week – the 10 least valuable assets in baseball. Look for that on Thursday.

Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31
#30-#26
#25-#21
#20-#16
#15-#11
#10-#6

#5 – Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston

Whether it is his size or the fact that he is overshadowed by other players on his team, Pedroia still hardly ever gets the recognition for being one of the best players in baseball. But he is one of the best in baseball at making contact while still hitting for power, and he rounds out his game by drawing walks, stealing bases at a high success rate, and playing excellent defense at second base. Over all, the package adds up to a +5 to +6 win player in his prime. Oh, and he’s under contract for the next five years at a total of $44 million – the last year is voided if he’s traded, but still, 4/33 for what Pedroia brings to the table is a huge bargain.

#4 – Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida

Yet another guy for whom it was pretty tough to find a final spot. Ramirez obviously brings positives to the table, as he is an offensive monster for a shortstop, especially compared with the current group that comprises his peers. He’s a five tool player producing at a premium position, and at just 26 years of age, he could get even better. And yet, he’s had some pretty public issues with management and is still not considered the hardest worker around. Further his contract is no longer dirt cheap, as he’ll be paid $57 million over the next four years. The performance and talent, however, is too impressive to have him any lower on this list, as teams would gladly put up with Ramirez’s warts in order to get a shortstop with a career .394 wOBA.

#3 – Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington

This may be as high as any pitcher will ever rank on this list. Strasburg has been nothing short of sensational so far in the big leagues, posting a ridiculous 2.11 xFIP in his first eight starts. His stuff is better than anyone in baseball, and it’s hard to see hitters figuring him out as long as he keeps throwing this hard. Oh, and the Nationals control his rights through 2016. He won’t make any serious money for another three years, so for now, the Nationals get one of the game’s best pitchers at about 5 percent of his market value. But, as with any pitcher, the risks are significant. The superlatives could all disappear with one pitch, as it has for so many phenoms before him. Pitcher attrition would keep other teams from giving up the kitchen sink to get Strasburg, but as good as he is, the refrigerator is probably on the table.

#2 – Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta

The year’s other phenom, Heyward isn’t as good as Strasburg right now, but he’s a hitter, and that makes all the difference in the world when assigning risk. At just 20 years old, he’s already shown he’s ready for the big leagues, flashing both patience and power at the plate. He’s far from a finished product, but the skills are there for him to become the game’s premier outfielder. It may come sooner than later, in fact. Because the Braves brought him up at the start of the season, they “only” control his rights through 2015, but that’s still five more years of team control for the game’s best young talent who still can’t drink. Almost everyone who is this good at this age becomes a superstar, and few doubt that Heyward is headed that way.

#1 – Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay

In May, when Heyward was going nuts, I asked my fellow FG authors if they thought there was an argument for Longoria to get displaced from the top spot. The answer – no, that contract is still too ridiculous. And,upon a another look, it is. Despite being one of the game’s premier players, Longoria will make $2 million next year. Over the next six years, he’ll be paid $42 million, or about 25 percent of his market value, which is just crazy. No player in the game provides the same performance for anything close to this kind of cost, and I don’t know that there’s an offer out there that would make Tampa Bay trade their third baseman. Unless Heyward turns into the best player in the game next year, I’m not sure Longoria will be ceding this spot to anyone for quite some time. His contract is the most team friendly deal any player has ever signed.

So, that’s the 2010 Trade Value series. I’ll do another post at 5 pm talking about some of the questions that arose from the list, such as why I left off Roy Halladay and Dan Haren, and look at some of the guys who disappeared from last year’s list.