And now, for the American League East.

On future talent, the Rays are the only organization that the Rangers envy, as they boast the same ridiculous depth of position player talent and then add in a better crop of young arms. It’s easy to get lost in the never ending sea of talent in Tampa Bay, as they have stars-in-the-making everywhere you look. And they’re not sitting around waiting for these kids to develop before making a run; this team is really good right now.

They had seven players post +3 WAR or better seasons last year, and that doesn’t include Carlos Pena or B.J. Upton. Evan Longoria is the most valuable commodity in the game, a franchise player being paid like a middle reliever. They are getting so much value from cost controlled players that they could afford to spend 23 percent of the budget on Pat Burrell and Rafael Soriano.

In any other division, they’d be monstrous favorites. But they don’t play in any other division, they play in the AL Beast. So, to make the playoffs, they have to climb over one of the only two teams who rank ahead of them on this series. When your parents told you that life was not always fair, this is what they meant.

But just because the task is a challenge, don’t write off the Rays. They aren’t that far behind the Big Two in terms of true talent, and with two playoff spots up for grabs between the three teams, there is a good chance you’ll be seeing Tampa Bay in October. The simulations run by the guys over at RLYW had the Rays making the playoffs 46 percent of the time.

This is a roster that can win this year, even with the extra hurdle of having to beat out Boston or New York. While they’ll have to make some changes at years end, likely replacing the likes of Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, they have another wave of premium young talent coming, and they shouldn’t see too steep of a drop-off. Their payroll limitations will always be a hindrance, but the management staff is adept at finding value.

It’s a good team with a great young core and a top notch front office that is setup well for the present and future. They have a couple of behemoths to topple, yes, but they have have the ability to do so.

What do Frank Francisco, Darren Oliver, Colby Lewis, Michael Young, and Vladimir Guerrero have in common, besides being members of the Texas Rangers? They were born in the 1970s. Why is that interesting? Because they are the only five players on the Rangers 40-man roster that you can say that about. The Rangers have five guys in the organization in their thirties. Five.

Name a position, and the Rangers almost certainly have a good player either in his prime or headed towards it. You would start your team with their double play combination before any other organization’s in the game. They have a a couple of all-star slugging outfielders that can drive in runs in bunches. They have a deep stable of starting pitchers, as they can easily pick between eight or nine guys, depending on who is healthy and throwing well. They have a kid throwing 100 in the bullpen.

Oh, and they have perhaps the best farm system in the game, led by a few more premium talents, one of whom could take the team’s first base job later this summer. The talent that the Rangers have to build around is ridiculous in both depth and ability. And they may be ready for prime time as early as this year.

Not only are the Rangers young and talented, but they’re also pretty good. If there’s a favorite in the AL West, it’s probably them, as they’re generally at the top of the pre-season projections, even if only by a game or two. Their commitment to defense has given them the ability to keep opponents from turning games into a slugfest, but they still have enough juice in their bats to put runs on the board themselves. They’re counting on the maturation of several young pitchers, which is always risky, but the talent is there for the Rangers to win the division and make some noise in the playoffs.

While Jon Daniels has taken a bit of flack for several trades gone wrong over since he took over at GM, the positive has far outweighed the negative, and the scouting staff around him have done tremendous work in reloading the system. The Rangers are legitimate contenders in 2010 and have a remarkably strong base to build off of for the future. They’re good now and could be great in a year or two, and that’s why they rank as the fourth healthiest organization in baseball.

For years, the Twins were an organization that succeeded in spite of their financial resources. They turned to player development to give them a chance to compete with larger payroll teams, and got so good at it that they ended up winning the division in five of the last eight years. Even as their best players got too expensive to retain, the Twins had a strong enough pipeline of talent to keep themselves competitive.

Now, with a new stadium ready to pump money into the organization, we get to see what the Twins can do with a real payroll. They added nearly $30 million in salary for 2010, bumping their expenditures on the current team from $65 million to $95 million, and this doesn’t even include the $184 million extension that they handed to Joe Mauer. The Twins are now a player development machine with money, and that’s a scary proposition for the rest of the AL Central.

The Twins are already the class of this division, even just looking at 2010. They’ve developed enough quality to surround Mauer with homegrown talent, then made some nifty off-season pickups, bringing in Orlando Hudson, J.J. Hardy, and Jim Thome. While their rotation may lack a big name ace, it’s strong at all five spots. Joe Nathan’s injury is a blow, but relievers are one of the easiest things in baseball to find, and the Twins have some good arms in the bullpen already. In my estimation, the Twins are bigger favorites to win their division this year than any other team in baseball.

There’s no reason to expect a collapse any time soon, either. Essentially the entire core is under 30 years old, and with Mauer locked up for essentially the rest of his career, the team won’t be suffering any major talent losses going forward. They aren’t one of baseball’s farm teams anymore – the Twins can finally keep the players they want to retain, and given the strength of their player development system, they will have a significant amount of young talent to keep around.

The Twins already proved that they can win on a shoestring budget. Based on early returns, they’re not going to frivolously throw away the new found access to cash, and so now Minnesota is a real force to be reckoned with. The rest of the AL Central is playing catch-up, and the Twins have a significant head start.

The presumption is going to be that I put the Mariners at #6 because I’m a biased homer – I am well aware of that. I could spend a few paragraphs explaining how I didn’t compile this by myself and generally attempt to defend myself against the claims of bias, but I’d rather just put those words to use explaining the logic behind the ranking, and then you can think what you will.

Each organization is being graded on different aspects that affect how well the team will play going forward. Since this will undoubtedly be the most controversial ranking of the series, I’ll break down each segment.

Present Talent

The 2010 Mariners are not a great team. It’s pretty easy to look at the roster and find problems – they lack offense, the back end of the rotation is a question mark, the closer has had one good major league season, etc… The upgrades on the roster pushed them into 83-85 win territory in terms of true talent level. Put them in the American League East, and they’d likely be fighting the Orioles for fourth place. In the AL West, however, there are no Yankees or Red Sox, as all four teams are pretty evenly matched. So, while the team is flawed, they also have a pretty decent chance of making the playoffs. There simply aren’t that many teams in baseball that are going into the 2010 season with a roughly one in four chance of playing in October.

This team isn’t just designed to steal a division title and get waxed in the ALDS, either. The team is banking on several high variance players, and they won’t succeed without good years from the likes of Milton Bradley and Erik Bedard. That is certainly a risky proposition, but there’s no denying the upside that comes in a scenario where both stay healthy and perform near their talent levels. Their mean projections are dragged heavily down by the risk (as they should be), but the distribution of expected outcomes is not clumped around the middle – they will likely either boom or bust, and take the team with them whichever way they go. This team is not very likely to win 83 to 85 games. Instead, they’ll probably win 75 or 90. If it doesn’t work, they’ll be sellers at the deadline and go young in the second half. If it does work, though, the other three AL playoff clubs would be staring at having to defeat a team that throws Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, and Bedard in a playoff series. No one is going to sign up for that assignment.

The combination of a winnable division and a high variance roster gives the Mariners a legitimate chance at winning the World Series this year, even with a roster that has plenty of warts. They’re not the favorites, certainly, but if you ran the 2010 season 1,000 times, the Mariners would end up champions in a non-trivial amount of them. They’d also finish last a bunch of times, which is part of the risk they’ve had to accept. But we cannot ignore the fact that among the 30 MLB clubs, Seattle is more likely to win the title in 2010 than most of their competitors.

Future Talent

The Mariners farm system isn’t among baseball’s best. They have a couple of premium prospects in Dustin Ackley and Michael Saunders, but they don’t match up with the systems that boast a lot of high ceiling guys. However, there is a reason this section is entitled young talent and not farm system.

Felix is 23. Franklin Gutierrez is 27. Jose Lopez is 26. Adam Moore is 25. Ryan Rowland-Smith is 27. Every single member of the bullpen is under 30. Simply looking at a ranking of their prospects misses the youth already on the team. They’re not overflowing with young talent like Texas or Tampa Bay, but there’s a young core to build around in place, and the guys on the farm who are legitimate prospects are generally close to the majors.

This isn’t a team that has a short window to contend. They’re likely to be even better in 2011 and beyond than they will be in 2010 – the problem for them is that is true of most of the rest of the division as well.

Management

This is where I expect the disagreement lies, as I don’t think anything written above veers much from the common perception about the team. In terms of front office capability, financial commitment from ownership, revenues from the ballpark, and the other minor components of this section, the Mariners graded out very highly. Not just with me, but among everyone I talked to, including the other authors here on the site.

I understand that there’s a large contingency of people who believe that we should not presume intelligence until success has been displayed on the field, and that we should infer that an organization is well run once the fruits of their labor of have been reaped, and those are the people who are going to hate this ranking. I simply have a philosophical disagreement with you on how we should evaluate our expectations for the future. Just as we can separate Jason Heyward from a normal outfield prospect despite the fact that he has accomplished nothing at the big league level, I believe we can also evaluate an organization’s ability to put a winning team on the field before they do so.

The term “process” has become a cliche in referring to front offices, but quite simply, there are few better examples of an organization that is blending traditional scouting with new ways of thinking than the Mariners. The GM is one of the most respected scouts in the game, and his right hand man is an accountant who went out and hired Tom Tango as one of his first orders of business. Teams that have blended both ways of thinking into their decision-making process have been tremendously successful, and this is the path the Mariners have set themselves upon.

The Seattle front office knows how to evaluate talent, and they know how to value talent. Organizations that do both things well, and are given a payroll of $100 million to boot, win a lot of baseball games.

I knew putting the Mariners at #6 would generate a significant amount of backlash and claims of bias. But, in my estimation, when you actually look at their chances of winning in 2010, the group of young talent they can build around going forward, the quality of the decision making in the front office, and their financial resources, this is where they belong. After years of being a joke, the Mariners have made one of the most impressive turnarounds in recent history.

When we talk about player development machines, the Braves and Twins are usually the first two organizations everyone mentions. However, the Rockies have one of the most home grown teams in recent history, and their core of players developed from within look to be ready to put their stamp on the National League.

On days when Seth Smith starts over Carlos Gonzalez, every single position player on the team will be playing for the only organization they’ve ever known. And of course, Gonzalez was acquired for Matt Holliday, who the Rockies developed internally. Dan O’Dowd and his staff should be incredibly proud of the work they’ve done in building this team from the ground up.

Of course, you don’t win a title for having the most players come up through your farm system, but the Rockies are certainly contenders for the big trophy handed out in November. They are a well balanced club that is capable of winning in a lot of ways. They have good hitters, good fielders, and a really good starting rotation. The bullpen is a question, but it’s also the easiest thing to fix. On paper, the Rockies are right there with the Dodgers as co-favorites for the NL West title, and they could make all kinds of noise in October if they earn a playoff berth.

However, for all the things the Rockies have done well, I still question whether they’ll make the right moves to capitalize on their window. Their management does far more good than bad, but some of the bad things are just head scratching. Why is Brad Hawpe still on this team? Why won’t they let Chris Iannetta play more often? Why does Huston Street, frequent visitor of the disabled list, get a three year deal? Why spend $3 million on Jason Giambi and Melvin Mora, but ignore opportunities to bolster the bullpen in a market where relief pitching was cheap?

The Rockies have a real opportunity to throw a parade with the core they have in place. To cash in and win it all, however, they’ll need to maximize their return on investment, and that hasn’t been a strength of the front office. With a few minor tweaks, this could be the best team in the NL – I’m just not sure why those tweaks weren’t made this winter.

The Braves are not the best team in their division, and their best bet for a playoff berth in 2010 is to steal the Wild Card from the NL West runner-up. But their future is so bright that you need sunglasses to look directly at it, and given the core they have to build around, they may be preparing for another long run of division titles.

Most organizations would kill to have one of Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, Tommy Hanson, or Yunel Escobar. The Braves, of course, have all four, and the talent doesn’t end there. Jair Jurrjens isn’t as good as his ERA would suggest, but he’s still a quality young arm. Even the young-ish role players, such as Martin Prado and Melky Cabrera, can play. And, of course, there’s still the old guard hanging around providing value for the next few years – Chipper Jones, Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Troy Glaus, and Billy Wagner still have something left in the tank.

The result is a roster that is a blend of premium young talent and enough of a supporting cast to play winning baseball right now. The team can hit, the rotation is deep, and they don’t have a single obvious hole on the roster. The only real question is whether the kids can develop fast enough to still make a run at a World Series before the veterans decline beyond the point of usefulness.

As Eno covered over on ESPN yesterday, expectations for Heyward’s value in 2010 have to be somewhat muted. Very few players are above average at age 20, even the phenoms. By the time he comes into his own, and top prospects such as Julio Teheren, Freddie Freeman, and Arodys Vizcaino arrive in Atlanta, the sun will likely be setting on the careers of Jones, Hudson, Lowe, and Wagner. Not every team is able to handle the transition well, as there is a natural pull to go for it all while the guys you have can still produce, but the Braves have enough depth of prospects that they may be able to have their cake and eat it too – making sure the big league team can win while still breaking in the best of the young players from the farm.

Put simply, the Braves are a player development machine, and with the pipeline of talent they’ve established, they should be good for a long time. It might not result in October baseball this year, but if you’re an Atlanta fan, there is a lot to be excited about.

Let me get this out of the way and save you the troube: “You ranked the two time defending NL champions ninth, behind teams that haven’t won anything in years – you are a biased moron!”

First, thanks for reading. Second – if it’s not obvious by now, a team’s record in the past means nothing in this series. This is not a backwards-looking reward for best recent performance, in either the regular season or the playoffs. This series is not designed to identify teams who have dominated baseball over the last few years. If it were, the Phillies (and Angels) would rank significantly higher.

That the Phillies rank just ninth here is not any kind of knock on what they have accomplished the last two years. It is simply a reflection of the questions that surround their ability to play at that level going forward. And there are legitimate questions surrounding this team.

Here are the core players on this team are under 27: Cole Hamels. That’s it. Last year’s Phillies team was the second oldest in baseball, barely behind the Astros, and after a series of trades that ripped apart the farm system, they have one impact prospect left (Domonic Brown). This team is straight up old.

They’re good, certainly. They should be the favorites to win the NL East, though the Braves are catching up very quickly. But as the Yankees learned the hard way, the combination of having a lot of high salaried older players without much of a farm system to support them is not the best way to build a team. And that’s exactly the situation the Phillies face going forward.

It can work. There’s enough star power on the roster that they’re a championship team if everyone stays healthy and plays as expected. But they’ve opened themselves up to problems if injuries arise or players age earlier than they’re hoping. They’ve tied themselves to Raul Ibanez for the next two years, but may not be able to afford to keep Jayson Werth beyond 2010.

The rotation after the big three is not good, and they can’t afford to have any of Halladay, Hamels, or Blanton hit the disabled list for a long period of time. Utley and Rollins are backed up by Juan Castro. Ryan Howard’s replacement, should he get injured, is Ross Gload or Greg Dobbs.

There is a significant lack of depth here, and combined with the age of the players they’re relying on, the Phillies have taken on quite a bit of risk. Risk isn’t inherently bad, but given the amount of vulnerability here, they need to win this year to make it worthwhile, or they could end up looking more like the current Mets team than they would want.

Now that we’re on to the top ten, we begin to nitpick a little bit. The previous 20 organizations all have one pretty significant issue, but now we’re starting to try to separate the good from the great. These distinctions are a bit tougher.

St. Louis is a good example of this. There are a lot of of things to like about the Cardinals; they have the best player in baseball, some all-stars around him, and a couple very good young players that they can build around. They’re the best team in the NL Central, and are a legitimate contender for the 2010 World Series. The fan base is strong, and the team makes enough money to sustain payrolls high enough to contend regularly.

But, there are cracks in the armor, most notably in the people management side of things. To say that Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan don’t always get along with the front office is something of an understatement. Reports surfaced during the 2009 season of a near mutiny on the coaching staff when the organization decided to get rid of Duncan’s son. Walt Jocketty left town to get away from a power struggle in the front office, and while that has been mostly settled, there are still potential issues there.

How long the manager and coach will remain in place is a near annual story. The Cardinals have put a lot of faith in Dave Duncan’s ability to fix pitchers and turn them into valuable pieces, and it’s paid off for years, but how long he’ll be in the Cardinals organization is an open question. Can St. Louis continue to strike gold by teaching cast-offs a two-seamer and turning them into all-stars without Duncan? Maybe, but I don’t know that it’s a good bet.

These seem like minor issues, I know, and in the grand scheme of things, they may be, but while the Cardinals have a good team, the friction between the front office and coaching staff threatens the formula that they’ve built their roster around. The Cardinals should win in 2010, but if they don’t, things could go very, very badly in St. Louis. It probably won’t, but the potential soap opera disaster is there, and that’s enough to drag the Cardinals down to the bottom of the really good organizations in baseball.

The last time the Angels won less than 89 games, Scott Spiezio was their starting first baseman and Jarrod Washburn led the team in innings pitched. That was 2003, and in the six years that followed, the Angels have won the AL West five times, finishing second in the only year they weren’t the champs. It was a tremendous run. But like all good things eventually do, it may be coming to an end.

The Angels aren’t a bad team, but they aren’t a great team anymore either. With John Lackey bolting for Boston, the team’s best player is now probably Kendry Morales, who has had one good major league season. While the team has quality around the diamond, there is a significant lack of star power. There’s not a single guy on the team that projects as a true talent +4 win guy. There is no franchise player.

That doesn’t mean they’re doomed, of course, because there are a lot of ways to build a roster, and you don’t have to have a superstar in order to win. But, to win without a premium player requires that you get legitimate major league production at nearly position. You don’t have the wins coming from the top to compensate for a glaring hole anywhere, so depth is crucial. The Angels certainly have that depth, but it’s not young and spry. Hunter is 34, Matsui is 35, and Abreu is 36. Even Juan Rivera is on the wrong side of 30. That outfield is long in the tooth, and they need all of those guys to play well and stay healthy.

It may work, but for the first time in a while, the Angels are clearly vulnerable. They’re no longer the clear favorites in the AL West, though they’re still certainly in the mix. But without a premium group of young players to build around and some important aging role players, the Angels are at a crossroads. If they don’t win in 2010 with this team, it might be time to look at going young for a year or two in order to rebuild the foundation of the team.

The team is well run and well financed, so the Angels will likely never be a laughing stock, but their run of owning the division appears to be nearing its end. This will be a critical year for the Angels future as they try to figure out just what they’re going to be going forward.

I will admit to being more bullish on the Brewers than anyone else I know that is not from Milwaukee. I realize that the projection systems have them as about a .500 team, but I’ve got them closer to 86 or 87 wins.

I may be the world’s last remaining believer in Manny Parra, who I still expect some pretty good things from. I’ve been a Rickie Weeks fanboy forever, and I’m still high on his abilities if he can stay healthy. I love watching Carlos Gomez play defense. And those guys are just the role players around a really good young core. Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Alcides Escobar, and Yovani Gallardo form a tremendous quartet of young talent, and give Milwaukee some of the best building blocks in the game.

Given the talent already in Milwaukee, I think they’ve got a legitimate shot at contending for at least the next two years and likely beyond. Whether they can retain Fielder is an open question, but even if they can’t, they should be able to get a significant return in trade for him that will include some major league ready guys. With the roster they’ve put together, I don’t see Milwaukee dropping off any time soon.

Part of that belief is faith I have in Doug Melvin and his crew, who don’t get enough credit for the job they’ve done. The Brewers aren’t loud about their integration of scouting and statistic analysis, but they’re one of the more forward thinking front offices in baseball. Melvin might not have an Ivy League pedigree, but he runs a really good organization.

Milwaukee is a good young team that should remain a contender for years to come. Their payroll limitations and mediocre farm system keep them out of the top 10, but it’s definitely a good time to be a Brewer fan.