At the end of April, fans in Kansas City were pretty excited. The Royals were 12-11, just a half game out of first place, thanks to the pitching of Zack Greinke and some surprising offensive performances from John Buck, Alberto Callaspo, Mark Teahen, Coco Crisp, and Willie Bloomquist. They had a +13 run differential and stood as one of the early surprise stories of the American League.

Five weeks later, they have the worst record in the American League. Now 24-33 with a -46 run differential, the Royals winning percentage is higher only than the Washington Nationals. If the 2010 MLB draft were today, the Royals would pick second. That’s quite a fall in a short period of time. What happened?

An offensive reality check. Remember those five guys who were hitting better than expected in April? Here’s their month by month slash lines for April, May, and June.

Buck: .300/.370/.700, .159/.260/.227, N/A
Callaspo: .379/.432/.575, .260/.315/.400, .239/.259/.269
Teahen: .300/.391/.488, .273/.327/.414, .200/.200/.320
Crisp: .247/.371/.494, .220/.316/.305, .100/.250/.100
Bloomquist: .333/.439/.424, .259/.308/.387, .333/.368/.444

Turns out that hoping for continued all-star performances from a collection of role players isn’t a recipe for success. Who knew?

When you add in the nothing contributions that the Royals are getting from Jose Guillen, Mike Jacobs, David DeJesus, and Mike Aviles, you have an offense that simply isn’t going to score enough runs to win baseball games. And, unfortunately, this group of non-hitters can’t play defense particularly well, either – the Royals have the fifth lowest team UZR in baseball, which dovetails nicely with their six lowest team wOBA.

Add it up, and the Royals have gotten a total of +2.2 wins from their position players this year. Only the White Sox have gotten less from their everyday guys. The pitching has been strong (+9 wins, #2 in baseball), but despite the cliches about the inflated value of pitching, you can’t win with worst-in-the-league position players.

At some point in the next month or so, the Royals are going to have to throw in the towel on the 2009 season, and when they get to that point, they should just dump Guillen and Jacobs. Their salaries are a sunk cost, and they’re standing in the way of the team getting better. You can’t rebuild with replacement level players making millions of dollars, and unfortunately, the Royals have too many guys that fit that category.

It’s 6:00 pm – do you know where your blue chip prospect is?

I’ll be chipping in with comments as we go here in the post. Feel free to leave your reactions in the comments below.

Pre-draft

If John Hart is special assistant to Jon Daniels, how is he supposed to advise Daniels while on TV?

I’m a Jim Callis fan, but shouldn’t he be a little bit more excited about Baseball America’s Christmas Day?

Also, can we just start picking please?

Selig is so terrible at public speaking. Oy vey.

We’re all going to be relieved when this pick is over, Ben. Talk about dragging out the inevitable.

#1. Washington – Stephen Strasburg, RHP

To the surprise of no one. We’ll find out how much he signs for on August 17th.

#2. Seattle – Dustin Ackley, 1B/CF

If you weren’t aware, I like this kid quite a bit. Early career Darin Erstad was a terrific player. A very safe, +3 to +4 win talent with some upside beyond that. Despite the talk about this being the Strasburg draft, Ackley would fit in well at the top of any draft.

#3. San Diego – Donovon Tate, OF

When Bud didn’t appear, was it wrong of me to hope he’d been kidnapped?

The comparisons to Cameron Maybin aren’t that far off base, but he probably has a bit more power and less speed. San Diego needs a premium position player, but he’s not going to get to Petco quickly.

#4. Pittsburgh – Tony Sanchez, C

Jorge? What?

As for the Pirates pick, I don’t know what to say. They insisted they weren’t going to go cheap, but are taking a guy because he’ll sign for less than the 20 guys who should go ahead of him on talent. I like Neil Huntington and the staff they have there in Pittsburgh, but I don’t get it.

Also, I grew up watching Harold Reynolds and loved watching him play, but his reasoning for the Tate pick was hilarious – “the Padres are one of the most boring teams in baseball to watch.” I’m sure picking an 18-year-old who won’t get to the majors until 2014 will make their games more exciting.

#5. Baltimore – Matt Hobgood, RHP

The Orioles hit gold by spending money on Matt Wieters, but didn’t want to do it again this year, so they took a good HS pitching prospect rather than a really good one in order to save some money. Personally, I don’t like taking HS arms this high unless they’re elite arms, and I don’t get the feeling that Hobgood is. Lots of risk with all 18 year olds. Need a lot of upside to offset that risk.

Also, the A’s Twitter feed is hilarious.

#6. San Francisco – Zack Wheeler, RHP

This pick probably breaks the Braves heart, who love them some local kids. The Giants reportedly wanted a hitter, but there wasn’t one worth taking here, so they went with the prep arm that every scout I talk to loves. The fact that he’ll sign makes him a legit top 10 prospect. The Giants depth of pitching is scary.

Does it surprise anyone else that Bud Selig still thinks we’re in the 20th century?

#7. Atlanta – Mike Minor, LHP

I am not a fan. This is a signability pick all the way. A low-upside lefty with good command, but the stuff isn’t great. He’s a back-end starter. Think Ricky Romero.

#8. Cincinnati – Mike Leake, RHP

Oh, man, Zack Wheeler. I’m sorry. Please never do another interview again.

I love Mike Leake. This pick breaks a lot of hearts. Leake’s a great command groundball guy who can pound the strike zone and knows how to pitch. The stuff isn’t as great as some of the other arms, but he’s a better pitcher than all of them. He’s got the kind of package that you look for in an innings eater, and this is a great selection for the Reds.

#9. Detroit – Jacob Turner, RHP

The Tigers live up to their reputation, taking the big arm who wants a lot of money. David Chadd hit pay dirt with Rick Porcello in a similar scenario, and Tigers fans have to hope Turner can repeat what Porcello has done. Big time fastball, which Detroit loves. Probably won’t get to the majors at age 20, but he’s got more upside than all the other non-Strasburg pitchers taken so far. Lots of risk, as always, but if the Tigers can get him signed, they’ll have to be happy with how this worked out.

#10. Washington – Drew Storen, RHP

Gotta love Strasburg tossing out nine cliches in the same sentence. These interviews are so useless.

Washington has to take a guy who will sign here, since they don’t get compensation for the pick if they can’t strike a deal. Storen should be a fairly easy sign, and Washington thinks they can turn him back into a starter, so they’re not just taking a bullpen arm. We’ll see.

#11. Colorado – Tyler Matzek, LHP

On talent, there’s no way he should have lasted this long, but his bonus demands pushed him out of the top 10. As punishment, he ends up heading to Coors Field. He better get his money early. Seriously, though, great pick for the Rockies if they can sign him. This is the kind of kid who makes the risk with HS arms worth it. Massive upside.

#12. Kansas City – Aaron Crow, RHP

There was some thought that Crow might fall out of the first round, but KC pops him here. They aren’t afraid of Indy League guys (see Hochevar, Luke), and they get another quality arm to plug into their future rotation. He could get to Kansas City quickly if they can get him signed. Good value for the Royals here.

#13. Oakland – Grant Green, SS

The A’s take the star of the Cape Cod League last year, ignoring his mediocre junior year who can be an up the middle player with a solid bat. Interesting to see how much Boras gets from the A’s, who aren’t big spenders.

#14. Texas – Matt Purke, LHP

The Rangers go with a big high school arm from Texas, which fits the mold of what they like. He wants a huge contract, so we’ll see how tough he is to sign, given that he’s clearly behind Matzek on most teams boards and got selected behind him as well. The Rangers farm system will just get even stronger, but it’s going to come at a high dollar cost.

#15. Cleveland – Alex White, RHP

White’s arm gets him drafted in spite of inconsistent performances and spotty command, though those problems caused him to fall a bit. He’s a guy who has the ability to be a better pro than he was in college, but you’re adding some hope to the mix here. He’s not close to the majors, unlike most college arms. He’s got a good amount of work to do.

#16. Arizona – Bobby Borchering, 3B

The best high school bat in the draft, Borchering is a kid who can really thump the baseball but might not stick at third. However, premium high school bats have a strong track record, so Arizona should feel good about this selection. A switch-hitter with power should be a nice option for them long term.

#17. Arizona – A.J. Pollock, CF

Interesting that Pollock gets announced as an outfielder – there were quite a few clubs who thought he could move back to shortstop or second base. It will be interesting to see how Arizona uses him. He’s a nice hitter with solid above average tools, and while he’s not flashy, he can play.

#18. Florida – Chad James, LHP

Florida selects a kid from Oklahoma? What a surprise. This was the easiest non-Strasburg pick in the draft to predict. The Marlins like young pitching, and they add another quality left-handed arm with a good breaking ball. At some point, they might want to draft someone who can catch the ball, though.

#19. St. Louis – Shelby Miller, RHP

Pre-draft rumors had the Cardinals wanting a left-handed pitcher, but they’ll have to settle for a kid who has been called a Josh Beckett clone. That’s probably a bit of an overstatement, but he’s got a power arsenal. Like Turner and Matzek, he’s the kind of pitcher who justifies the risk with high school pitchers.

#20. Toronto – Chad Jenkins, RHP

Jenkins fits the mold of arms that the Blue Jays like – throws strikes, a good selection of different pitches, pounds the bottom of the zone. Should be a groundball machine. The Halladay comparisons are going to be inevitable because of who drafted him, and while he’s not that good, this is a nice selection for Toronto.

#21. Houston – Jiovanni Mier, SS

A bit higher than some expected him to go, but Mier is an athletic shortstop with some power. How well he’ll hit is the question mark, but if he can develop a better all around offensive game, he could be a quality player. The glove should allow him to stick at the position, so he’s got some latitude offensively.

#22. Minnesota – Kyle Gibson, RHP

There’s no way Gibson falls this far without the forearm fracture, so the Twins have to be happy with how this worked out. The injury shouldn’t be a long term problem, and they’ll be able to see him throw before the signing deadline, so they should be able to make a determination of whether he’s healthy or not. He did have a heavy workload in college, though, so this might not be his last arm injury.

#23. Chicago White Sox – Jared Mitchell, CF

The White Sox love them some toolsy outfielders, and Mitchell is certainly that. He has the power/speed combination that makes it easy to dream on, but he’s a long way from being a major league player. He needs a lot of work at the plate, though he could still outdo Dwayne Wise offensively right now.

#24. Anaheim – Randal Grichuk, OF

This would have been a shocking pick a week ago, but St. Louis had Grichuk in to work out and got his name out there in the last few days. He’s a hitter in a draft that doesn’t have a lot of them, but unless they pick Mike Trout with their next selection, it’s tough for me to see how Grichuk is a better prospect.

#25. Anaheim – Mike Trout, OF

John Hart just mentioned that the executives have a chance to “touch and feel” players at personal workouts. Umm…

Well, there you go. I’ll take credit for that one. Your welcome, Mike. Nice pick for the Angels here – Trout can play, and is a very good value at #25.

#26. Milwaukee – Eric Arnett, RHP

I’m fairly certain that Harold Reynolds’ high horse will be running next year’s Kentucky Derby.

Arnett’s a big arm velocity guy who got better as the season went along. He’s got the power fastball/slider package so getting right-handers out won’t be a problem – the question is what he’ll throw to left-handed hitters in order to stay in the rotation. If he can develop a change-up that works, he could be a good value for the Brewers.

#27. Seattle – Nick Franklin, SS

Another pick that I’m a fan of for the M’s. A switch-hitting middle infielder who can hit and field. Nothing flashy, but a solid two way player who can turn into a quality performer at a position the M’s have a big hole at.

#28. Boston – Raymond Fuentes, CF

Fuentes got some ink for being Carlos Beltran’s cousin, but he deserves the press on his own. He’s got a nice five tool package, though the speed is ahead of the power. I’ve heard a comp to Andrew McCutchen, and that seems to fit pretty well.

#29. New York Yankees – Slade Heathcott, CF

Heathcott is a premium athlete with lots of baggage. Left-handed bat with power and speed, but he’s a long, long way from the majors.

#30. Tampa Bay – Levon Washington, 2B

You don’t see second baseman go in the first round that often, but Washington has serious athletic ability. He’s a left-handed bat with some top flight speed and the Rays liked his approach at the plate, so he could be a classic leadoff hitter type.

#31. Chicago Cubs – Brett Jackson, CF

People who hate strikeouts will remind you of Jackson’s contact rate, but he’s a premium defender with power and speed. I got a Devon White comp on him from a scout friend a few months ago, and while that’s definitely a best case scenario, this is a nice value for the Cubs.

#32. Colorado – Tim Wheeler, CF

Reports a week or so ago had Wheeler in the top ten, but questions about his price tag dropped him to the end of the first round. He’s a quality hitter, though he might not be a center fielder long term. It will be interesting to see if the Rockies can afford both Matzek and Wheeler, considering that both were looking for money that will be way above the slot recommendations.

That’s it for me, folks – thanks for sticking around on our first ever live blog. Hope you enjoyed it.

Just a quick programming note – I’ll be live-blogging the draft here on the site tonight, beginning at 5:45 pm. Feel free to come join us for live reactions to the draft as it takes place.

Today is draft day, or as it’s known in D.C., Stephen Strasburg Day. As a reward for their lousiness last year, Washington has been granted the right to call out Strasburg’s name tonight with the first overall pick, and then spend the next few months trying to get him signed. There’s never been a consensus number one pick in the draft like there is this year. Everyone, and I mean everyone, agrees that Strasburg should go number one tonight.

Well, maybe not everyone. I think there’s a not-too-ridiculous case to be made that the Nationals should draft Dustin Ackley instead.

There’s no doubt that Strasburg is an elite talent. His stuff is better than any college pitcher we’ve ever seen, routinely hitting 100 MPH with his fastball and blowing hitters away with a hard breaking ball. Unlike most other kids who can throw hard at age 20, Strasburg actually knows where the ball is going. His ability to throw strikes with that kind of stuff is remarkable. The performances match the reports – 19 walks and 195 strikeouts in 109 innings this year, putting even Mark Prior to shame.

No one doubts the potential. It’s very easy to see a scenario where Strasburg is the best pitcher in baseball in a couple of years. Unfortunately, it’s also very easy to see a scenario where any number of factors (injuries, diminished velocity, mental breakdown, bad lifestyle choices, failure to learn how to pitch) cause him to fall short of his ultimate upside. He could be great, or he could end up as the next Dwight Gooden, Rick Ankiel, or Kerry Wood. It’s not just a binomial star-or-bust situation either – Felix Hernandez was destroying major league hitters with similar stuff at age 19, but hasn’t progressed as a pitcher, and is now having to adjust to having a fastball that averages 94 rather than 96.

In reality, history tells us there’s something like a 20% chance that Strasburg becomes what everyone hopes he can be. There’s also around a 20% chance that he gets knocked down hard early in his career, whether it be for health or mental reasons, and fails to get back up. That leaves the 60% middle ground, where he becomes a good, maybe great pitcher, but doesn’t live up to the best of all time hype. Or, if we translate those odds into Wins Above Replacement over the six first six years of his career, it would look something like this.

30-40 WAR: 25%
21-30 WAR: 25%
11-20 WAR: 25%
0-10 WAR: 25%

We’re giving him a one in four chance of becoming Randy Johnson, a one in four chance of becoming Jake Peavy, a one in four chance of becoming Kerry Wood, and a one in four chance of becoming Rick Ankiel. You can quibble the percentages a bit if you want, but not enough to move the conclusionary needle. The total expected WAR over six years of that package of probabilities, is +20. If you really think that Strasburg is different than all the previous phenoms, you could maybe push the probabilities to where the conclusion was +25. That’s about your limit, though. If the Nationals are expecting Strasburg to add more than 25 wins to their franchise before he becomes eligible for free agency, they’re probably headed for a disappointment.

So, all that said, let’s bring this back to Dustin Ackley. He doesn’t have anything like Strasburg’s upside. He’s a high average gap power hitter who has spent most of his time playing first base because his arm strength hasn’t returned after Tommy John surgery last summer. He’s athletic enough to play the outfield, but he doesn’t have much experience there, so the projections of him being an asset in center field are based on hope more than observation. The scouting report isn’t nearly as sexy.

However, the track record of established, premium college hitters is a terrific one. Unlike with the pitchers, you have to really look to find guys who were the best hitter in their class coming out of college and failed to do anything in the majors. For guys who just totally flopped, there’s David McCarty and Travis Lee, and that’s about it. Alex Gordon hasn’t hit as expected yet, so maybe he’s on his way to joining them. But the list of total premium college bats who have been total busts is very short.

Just to put this in comparison, Darin Erstad, who fell apart early in his career and was considered a less than elite #1 pick when he was drafted anyway, was worth 25.8 wins to the Angels from 1996 to 2002. A lot of people would consider Erstad’s career a disappointment, given how poorly he’s hit in his 30s, and his first six years were comparable in value to six years of pitching from a guy like Peavy or Josh Beckett.

Those are just the low-end guys. The high end is littered with players like Frank Thomas, Todd Helton, Mark Teixeira, Evan Longoria, and now Matt Wieters. No one thinks Ackley is as good as those guys, but even if you slice 20 percent of the upper end value off of those guys to reflect the power difference, you’re still talking about a premium upside. Let’s do the same probability breakdown for Ackley that we did for Strasburg.

31-40 WAR: 10%
21-30 WAR: 40%
11-20 WAR: 40%
0-10 WAR: 10%

With reduced potential but also reduced risk, we’re giving Ackley something like a 10% chance of being Todd Helton, a 40% chance of being Darin Erstad, a 40% chance of being J.D. Drew, and a 10% chance of being Travis Lee. The more certain, less volatile projection here has the exact same expected value as the one we listed for Strasburg above.

Again, you can quibble with the numbers if you want, but not that much. I think there’s room to argue that Ackley is as low as a +15 WAR and Strasburg is as high as a +25 WAR guy over their first six years. If you’re completely convinced that Ackley’s arm will limit him to left field and he won’t develop much power, and you’re convinced that Strasburg is significantly better than Prior/Wood/Hernandez were at similar stages of development, the difference in upsides would tip the scales in Strasburg’s favor by a comfortable margin.

However, I think it’s closer than most people think. Ackley’s significantly reduced risk makes up for a good chunk of the potential gap. When you toss in the cost differences (Strasburg is probably going to sign for $15 million more than Ackley), the gap closes even more. The present win value of $15 million in cash is something like three to four wins. If you have Strasburg as a +22 win guy and Ackley as a +18 win guy, then the cost difference essentially makes it a wash.

Even at the extremes, where Strasburg is +25 and Ackley is +15, the signing bonus requirements push it to within a reasonable gap of just 6-7 wins over six years.

Strasburg’s going number one, but I think there’s a pretty strong chance that we’ll look back in six years and realize that picking Dustin Ackley wouldn’t have been such a bad idea after all.

We’re past the one-third marker of the season, and this season continues to be an interesting one. The Dodgers just won’t lose, the Rangers haven’t gone away, and the AL East looks like the best division of all time. What did we learn last week?

Zack Greinke is human.

For his first 11 starts of the season, Greinke’s numbers looked like something out of a video game set to easy mode. He was just toying with hitters, and every game was a potential shutout. Finally, for the first time this year, he looked human this week, giving up five runs in five innings in a loss to the Blue Jays. Toronto took him deep twice, accounting for the only two home runs he’s given up this year. Have no fear, though – even after a bad start, his FIP stands at 1.81 for the year.

The A’s may finally have a rotation.

After cycling through pitchers all year, the young hurlers currently in the Oakland rotation want to stay put. Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Josh Outman, Dallas Braden, and Vin Mazzaro combined to throw 46 innings last week, giving up 35 hits and walking just seven batters while striking out 26 guys. They allowed just eight runs between them, for a nifty 1.56 runs allowed per nine innings. They obviously won’t keep pitching that well, but Oakland built their preseason hopes on a young pitching staff developing quickly, and they had to enjoy this week’s performance.

Jarrod Washburn continues to shine.

Early in the season, my buddy Jonah Keri wrote a piece claiming that Washburn might be this season’s Cliff Lee, pointing to a greatly improved outfield defense that would help him have a significantly better year than many expected. So far, he looks like a genius, as Washburn continued to roll last week and is having the best season of his career. After two more excellent starts, his season ERA stands at 3.07, and while he’s gotten help from Franklin Gutierrez, Ichiro Suzuki, and Endy Chavez, he’s also just pitching really well – his FIP stands at 3.39. He’s added a two-seam fastball that is destroying left-handers (LHBs are 11 for 78 with 3 walks and 26 strikeouts against him this year), and by dominating same-handed hitters, he’s doing a halfway-decent Cliff Lee impersonation.

The Royals offense is not good.

Take away Brayan Pena, who went 2 for 5, and the best wOBA the Royals got from one of their hitters last week was .273, courtesy of Miguel Olivo. .214/.214/.429 made him their hitting star. That’s rough. You name a Royals regular, and they haven’t hit much lately. Kansas City, as a team, posted a .225 wOBA last week. It’s no wonder they scored a whopping 13 runs while basically falling out of the AL Central race. Greinke gives them a reason for hope, but Dayton Moore has a lot of work to do fixing that group of position players.

Today’s news that J.J. Putz has undergone surgery on his right elbow and will miss the next two months should come as a shock to no one. We talked about his obvious health problems a few weeks into the season, and the only surprise is that it took this long for the Mets to put him under the knife.

Given the information available at the time, the deal looked like a continuation of Omar Minaya overvaluing “proven” relief pitching. In retrospect, the trade to acquire Putz has been a total disaster.

To acquire J.J. Putz, Sean Green, and Jeremy Reed, Minaya gave up Aaron Heilman, Joe Smith, Jason Vargas, Endy Chavez, Mike Carp, Ezequiel Carrera, and Maikel Cleto. The Mariners then turned around and flipped Heilman for Garrett Olson and Ronny Cedeno. Here’s how the players have performed since the deal went down.

Putz – 4.25 FIP, surgery
Green – 4.92 FIP
Reed – .324 wOBA

Smith – 3.63 FIP, DL
Heilman – 5.38 FIP
Vargas – 4.81 FIP
Olson – 6.28 FIP
Chavez – .317 wOBA
Cedeno – .237 wOBA
Carp – .421 wOBA (Triple-A)
Carrera – .418 wOBA (Double-A)
Cleto – DNP, visa problems

Jason Vargas has settled in nicely as the Mariners 5th starter and has clearly been the best player in the deal to date. Endy Chavez has provided his usual excellent outfield defense, and has been worth 0.5 wins in part-time work. Carp is having a big year in the PCL, adding power his already patient approach. Carrera is proving that the “Endy Chavez in training” tag has some merit, flashing terrific defense and a lot of walks in Double-A. Olson hasn’t pitched well as a starter, but has shown the potential to be a useful LH reliever. And, of course, with the exception of Chavez, the Mariners are paying all of these guys the league minimum.

Meanwhile, the Mets are paying about $6 million this season for three guys providing replacement level performance. There’s almost no chance they’ll pick up Putz’s option for 2010, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the team decided not to offer arbitration to either Green or Reed. That would leave the Mets with a big fat zero to show for the entire deal.

They didn’t give up any future stars in the deal, but once again, trading youth for relief pitching fails to pan out. I’m pretty sure the Mets would love to have Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, and Ezequiel Carrera back, at the very least. When you give up seven guys, odds are one or two are going to come back to haunt you.

When the Minnesota Twins gave up Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett to get Delmon Young and Brendan Harris, they believed they were adding one of the game’s elite young hitters. Young had been a top prospect since high school, impressing scouts with his tools and blowing through the minors with quality performances. He got to the majors at age 20 and held his own, posting a .343 wOBA in 131 plate appearances.

By pretty much any standard, Young had the pedigree of an all-star. The tools were there. The performance was there. His strike zone judgment needed some work, but it was the kind of problem that would limit him to being just a good player instead of a great one if he didn’t fix it. And, considering his age, he had plenty of time to fix it.

He has to fix a lot more than his pitch recognition now. His 2009 line stands at .231/.272/.265, and he’s fallen apart as a hitter. His K% had held steady at 19% for his first three years, but is up to 35% this year. His ISO has dropped from .115 to .034. He’s still not walking, of course, so he’s currently an aggressive hitter who strikes out a lot and doesn’t have any power. We can’t even suggest that his struggles are luck related, as his BABIP is .347. He has a .347 batting average on balls in play and is still posting a .242 wOBA. That’s remarkable.

The current version of Young combines Jeff Francouer’s pitch recognition, Adam Dunn‘s contact abilities, and Juan Pierre’s power. Just for good measure, he’s also playing the outfield like Jack Cust. Add it all up, and you have a guy who has been worth -1.3 wins in 125 plate appearances. Prorated over a full season, that’s -6.5 wins.

To put that in context, Young’s current performance is equally as far away from replacement level as Justin Upton’s current performance… just in the other direction. If Young was going to continue to perform at this level going forward, replacing him with a random Triple-A outfielder would yield about the same return as replacing that random Triple-A outfielder with an All-Star.

Delmon Young needs to go back to the minor leagues. He’s so far away from being a major league player at the moment that the Twins can’t justify putting him on the field while trying to fix him. The problem, however, is that Young is out of options, since he signed a major league contract coming out of High School. As bad as he is, Young’s not clearing waivers, so shipping him back to Triple-A is out of the question.

There don’t appear to be any easy answers here. Young isn’t just slumping – he’s broken. The Twins still want to win the AL Central, so they can’t punt left field while trying to get him on track. But, sitting on the bench for a manager he doesn’t particularly like isn’t going to help him improve either.

At this point, the Twins would probably be best served if Young went on the DL with Dontrelle Willis disease, and they used some kind of mental anguish issue to get him off the roster and let him “rehab” down in the minors. This current arrangement isn’t working for anyone.

Earlier today, we talked about the Nate McLouth trade from the perspective of what McLouth should bring to Atlanta. He’s a good player and the Pirates offense will miss him. However, Neil Huntington didn’t just toss him off the ship, but felt this was a trade he had to make. Let’s look at what this deal does for Pittsburgh.

The main driver behind this deal wasn’t any of the prospects that Atlanta gave up, but instead, one that Pittsburgh already had. The Pirates top center field prospect and first round pick in 2005, Andrew McCutchen, had been cooling his heels in Triple-A waiting for a shot in the majors, and this deal opens up a full time job for the 22-year-old. A .300/.361/.493 line for Indianapolis helped convince the Pirates that he was ready for a big league role, and sure enough, he went 2 for 4 with a stolen base in his major league debut this afternoon.

McCutchen should be an upgrade over McLouth defensively, though there’s going to be a fairly significant offensive dropoff. That’s where the prospects come in – the Pirates are counting on the three players they got from Atlanta more than offsetting the switch from McLouth to McCutchen in center field.

The best of the bunch, for me, is LHP Jeff Locke. The 21-year-old lefty uses a 90-94 MPH sinking fastball to get both groundballs and strikeouts, and as we’ve talked about a lot here, pitchers who can do those two things are often very successful. Of course, pitchers who do both of those things often also have command problems, as the movement required to get grounders and swinging strikes also makes it hard to throw strikes consistently, and Locke is no exception. His 26 walks in 45 2/3 innings in High-A ball is a legitimate concern, and the lack of polish puts Locke at least two years from the majors.

The other pitcher in the deal, Charlie Morton, is closer to the majors but with quite a bit less upside. Like Locke, Morton throws a sinking fastball that gets groundball, but he lacks an outpitch and won’t rack up the same amount of swings and misses. His command has taken several steps forward in the last few years, though he still struggles to throw strikes to LHBs, so while he should be able to succeed as a strike throwing sinkerball guy, but he’s probably going to top out as a #5 starter and have trouble against line-ups stacked with opposite handed hitters.

Pittsburgh also got back an outfield prospect in the deal, as Gorkys Hernandez now finds himself in his third organization in three years. He’s an excellent athlete with terrific defensive skills, and brings terrific range to center field, which is good, because he’s probably not going to become much of a hitter. He’s not as projectable as most 21-year-olds due to his swing plane that drives the ball into the ground, which severely limits his power potential. He’s going to have to be a speedy leadoff type, but the successful hitters in that family make a lot of contact, and Hernandez does not. You can be a good hitter without power, and you can be a good hitter while striking out, but it’s almost impossible to be a good hitter without power if you also strike out a bunch.

In all, the Pirates got back one good upside arm who needs to straighten out his mechanics before he can help the big league team in 2-3 years and a couple of lower upside guys who profile as nice role players long term. Morton and Hernandez are more depth than core players, and while Locke could certainly win this trade for the Pirates on his own abilities, betting on 21-year-old A-ball pitchers is hardly ever a winning proposition.

For me, the Pirates didn’t get enough for McLouth. Getting McCutchen into the line-up is a nice perk, but that could have happened by letting him take playing time from Nyjer Morgan and Brandon Moss. If I’m giving up a +3 to +4 win 27-year-old signed to a terrific contract, I want back a little more than some guys who could fill out a roster and a pitcher who might be able to help me in 2012.

Badly in need of an outfielder who could hit, the Braves acquired Nate McLouth from the Pirates yesterday for three prospects. Rather than rolling the dice with an unknown, the Braves acquired one of the easiest guys in baseball to project.

In 2007, McLouth posted a .364 wOBA. Last year, he posted a .369 wOBA. This year, he’s got a .367 wOBA. Despite a hot start to the season last year, you know what you’re getting with McLouth – a quality left-handed bat who draws some walks and has some power. Given an expected ~.360 to .370 wOBA over about 450 plate appearances for the rest of the season, we can expect McLouth to be worth something like 10 runs above an average hitter from here on out. It’s a nice bat.

Despite winning a gold glove last season, the glove isn’t as valuable. McLouth has consistently ranked as a below average defensive center fielder, compiling a -10.6 UZR/150 over his career. He’s a corner outfielder playing out of position in center, but he’s not an atrocity out there. He’ll let some balls fall in that you wished he could have got to, but he’ll make up for with the bat.

Remember, even with his -14.5 UZR last year, McLouth was a +3.6 win player for the Pirates, and he’s on basically the same pace this year. Over the last three years, he’s compiled 1,262 plate appearances and been worth +6.4 wins. Going forward, we should expect McLouth to be a +3 to +4 win player. That’s a borderline all-star, and definitely the kind of player the Braves needed to acquire.

Toss in the fact that McLouth signed away his arbitration years over the winter, and is now under contract for $15 million through 2011 with a club option for 2012, and the Braves have acquired a player who is significantly underpaid. Even with the economic uncertainty of the free agent market, 27-year-olds with +3 to +4 win talent should command upwards of $12 million per season. McLouth will make less than half of that.

As an acquisition, McLouth makes all kinds of sense for the Braves. He’s a high quality player signed to a team friendly contract, in the midst of his prime, and provides a significant upgrade over what they had on hand in the outfield. At 5 pm, we’ll look at what they gave up to get him, but Braves fans should certainly look forward to having McLouth in their line-up. Atlanta just got quite a bit better.

This afternoon, we look at Antonio Bastardo’s major league debut. He wasn’t the only one making his first trip to a major league mound last night, though. Oakland debuted yet another young starter, giving a look to Vin Mazzaro, and like with Bastardo, the high level results were excellent – 6 1/3 shutout innings leading to his first major league win. However, let’s get beyond the results and look at how Mazzaro pitched using some graphs courtesy of Brooks Baseball.

In contrast to Bastardo, Mazzaro’s chart is a virtual rainbow, with the five different colors representing a varied arsenal of pitches that he threw at the White Sox. He threw both a two seam and four seam fastball, a change-up, a slider, and a curve. To better see the variation of movement and speed that he threw, here’s a graph of his pitches by vertical movement and speed.

On the right side, you see fastballs from 90-95 MPH and varying amounts of movement. Then, the slider and change-up are both in the 83-88 MPH range, while the curve hangs out from 79-82. He definitely gave the White Sox a lot of different looks.

However, unlike pitchers who do it intentionally, some of Mazzaro’s variation looks to be more fatigue than keeping hitters off balance. Check out his velocity timeline.

The fastball sat around 94 for the first 25 pitches before moving into the 92 range for the middle 50 and then dropping off to just over 90 for the final 25 pitches. So, it’d be a bit of an overstatement to say that Mazzaro effectively pitched 89-95 with his fastball. He was a power pitcher early, but that didn’t last too long.

If you go back and look at the strike zone plot, you’ll see that, like Bastardo, he wasn’t really attacking the lower part of the zone, nor was he throwing a ton of strikes. He did a good job of keeping his change-up down, but the fastballs are mostly middle-up, which is why he too gave up 10 fly balls last night. Now, Mazzaro’s shown some pretty significant groundball ability in the minors, so it’s likely that nerves just cost him some fastball command last night. His fastball definitely has more sink to it than Bastardo’s does, but his performance last night shows why command is so important – even with a diving fastball, if you leave it up in the zone, it’s going to get hit in the air.

Thankfully for Mazzaro, the White Sox can’t hit, and they really can’t hit right-handed pitching. So, despite issuing four walks and getting just a single strikeout, Mazzaro was able to keep the White Sox off the board by letting some meager hitters get themselves out. He showed a better variation of pitches than Bastardo did, but didn’t flash anything resembling an out pitch, which has been the knock against his prospect status at each step up the ladder.

At the end of the night, both rookies had to be thrilled to get victories in their first major league starts. Both of them, however, have significant adjustments to make if they’re going to continue to be successful in the major leagues.

With Jamie Moyer struggling and Chan Ho Park bombing out of the rotation early, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro made no secret of the fact that he was hunting for a pitcher on the trade market. When Brett Myers landed on the DL with what is likely to be season ending surgery on his hip, that need for help in the rotation only intensified. However, rising prospect Antonio Bastardo did his best to lay claim to one of the open spots last night, making his major league debut against San Diego.

The results were terrific – 6 innings, 4 hits, 1 run, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 5 strikeouts. The only run the Padres were able to muster was on an Adrian Gonzalez homer, and giving up a bomb to Gonzalez just puts Bastardo in the same company as everyone else in the National League this year.

However, if there’s one thing I’ve been advocating for years, it’s to judge by process, not results. How did Bastardo attack the Padres? Let’s take a look at the Pitch F/x data.

That’s the strike zone plot by pitch type, where the green squares are fastballs and the orange squares are sliders. I know, you have to look really hard to see the orange squares, because they’re covered by a sea of green. Of the 102 pitches Bastardo threw, 91 of them were fastballs – the other 11 were sliders. 41 of the 102 pitches were out of the strike zone, so even limiting his repertoire to two pitches, he still didn’t have great command.

Was he just overpowering hitters then? Here’s his velocity histogram.

The fastball was 89-95, but mostly clumped in the 91-93 range. That’s pretty decent velocity for a lefty, but those are four seam fastballs, and remember how many of them were up in the zone? Pounding the knees at 91-93 with a sinker is one thing, but Bastardo was going upstairs with a 91-93 MPH fastball, and that’s a recipe for a lot of fly balls. Not surprisingly, he gave up 10 fly balls to go along with three line drives and three ground balls. That’s what happens when you throw a lot of high strike zone four seamers.

The results? Terrific. The process? A little scary, honestly.

There are very few starting pitchers who can succeed consistently with just two pitches. The fastball-slider combination doesn’t give Bastardo an out pitch against right-handed batters, and not surprisingly, he’s posted significant splits in the minors. His 90% fastball philosophy won’t work, either – he’s either going to have to start mixing in some sliders or a change-up, or hitters are going to adjust very quickly. Toss in the fact that his approach last night would lead to an exceptional amount of fly balls, which is fine in Petco but less fine in Citizens Bank, and this is one of those classic starts where the results aren’t a great indicator of future events.

Despite a strong major league debut, Amaro should still be shopping for a starting pitcher if the Phillies want to try to repeat as champions.