Everyone knows that Zack Greinke has been brilliant this year. The young Royals ace has been quite the story of the first two months, blowing hitters away and racking up some hilarious numbers through nine starts. However, for the last month or so, he’s actually been out pitched by a division rival.

Here’s what Justin Verlander has done in his last six starts.

42 1/3 innings, 24 hits, 0 home runs, 10 walks, 60 strikeouts, 1.14 FIP, 0.85 ERA

Of the 24 hits he’s allowed, 21 have been singles. He’s faced 159 batters, and they are hitting .162/.220/.182 against him. National League pitchers are hitting .139/.190/.172 on the season, if you want a frame of reference for just what kind of domination Verlander is currently enjoying.

Included in those six starts are three of the top four strikeout games in the American League this season. On May 14th, Verlander struck out 13 Twins batters. On May 3rd and May 8th, he struck out 11 Indians batters. Joba Chamberlain is the only other AL pitcher to record 11+ strikeouts in a game this season, and he did it once.

Verlander’s second game against the Indians registered a game score of 92 – the best any pitcher has had this season. So much for figuring out a pitcher after you’ve gotten a chance to see him twice in the same week. The Indians were happy to see Verlander move on to destroying other team’s offensive hopes.

In terms of WPA, Verlander has racked up 2.30 wins during his current six start stretch of brilliance. Greinke leads all major league starters in WPA with a 2.50 mark, which averages out to .27 WPA per start. Verlander is averaging .38 WPA per start during his last six appearances.

In fact, you can look at all the different combinations of six start stretches that Greinke has had this year, and none of them are quite as good as the one Verlander is currently on. Yes, we’re splitting hairs a bit when we’re saying the guy with a 1.14 FIP is pitching better than the guy with a 1.40 FIP, as both of them are pitching at remarkably awesome levels, and the point isn’t to downgrade Greinke’s accomplishments in the slightest – I just want to give some context to how good Verlander has been as of late.

His season ERA might only stand at 3.55 thanks to some rough performances by his teammates during his first four starts, but Verlander has taken them out of the equation for the last month or so. With a 12.76 K/9 during his run of unhittableness, he’s eliminating the possibility for bad defense or tough luck to mask how well he’s been pitching all year.

He’s got a lot of ground to gain, given how much better Greinke did to begin the year, but Verlander is pitching at a Cy Young level right now. Watching these two face off all summer should be a lot of fun.

As we head towards the end of May, the lessons come with some instructive knowledge about what teams may do in the next two months. A losing streak that knocks a team out of contention could change who will be available on the trade market, while a surging player can enhance the chances that they end up on a contender with a strong performance now. We’ve seen both of those things, and more, over the past week. Let’s take a look at what we learned.

The Blue Jays are not the best team in the AL East.

Okay, we already knew this, but reality hit Toronto like a punch in the face this week, as the Jays got swept by the Red Sox and the Braves in consecutive series, and the six game losing streak knocked them out of their first place perch. The stars of the early season offense, which had carried the team through the first six weeks, disappeared during the the last seven days. Only the Lyle Overbay/Kevin Millar platoon provided any offense, and the lack of scoring proved a problem when the pitching managed to keep them close. Now basically tied with Boston and New York, the Jays are going to have a tough time keeping up with the big payroll twins over the rest of the season. It was a nice run while it lasted though.

It’s hard to win when your entire line-up slumps at the same time.

Just ask Cubs fans, who saw a bunch of good hitters simultaneously forget how to swing the stick. Derrek Lee managed to single his way into a decent batting average, but the rest of the offense was MIA. Geovany Soto went 3 for 17. Milton Bradley went 3 for 20. Kosuke Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano both went 2 for 21, though Fukukome at least walked four times, while Soriano didn’t manged to take a pitch even once. Reed Johnson went 2 for 24. The team managed a whopping six extra base hits the entire week, and the offense totaled five runs in six games. Not surprisingly, the Cubs lost them all. While it wasn’t much fun to watch, Chicago shouldn’t be too concerned – there are some legitimately good hitters on their roster, and the bats will come around.

Clayton Richard doesn’t really want to be traded.

The only major league player who was going to San Diego in the Jake Peavy deal, Richard apparently decided this would be a good week to show Kenny Williams that he might be worth hanging on to. He struck out 11 batters in 13 innings between his two starts, showing an improved breaking ball and keeping hitters off balance without overpowering stuff. Richard has been something of an afterthought in most circles, given his low strikeout rate and average velocity, but he’s now posted a 4.21 FIP over his first 81 major league innings. He’s certainly not an ace in the making, but his fastball has enough sink to make him a decent #5 starter, and the White Sox have to be pleased to still have him around right now.

Adam Kennedy is alive.

After being released by the St. Louis Cardinals, Kennedy had to take a minor league contract from the Tampa Bay Rays in order to keep playing baseball. With no real hope to contribute to the Tampa roster, he was sold to the A’s so they could give him a chance to hold down the fort at second base while Mark Ellis was hurt. He’s done that and then some, hitting .448/.515/.655 last week to bring his wOBA to .454 since joining the A’s. He won’t keep hitting like this, but ZIPS projects a .313 wOBA over the rest of the season, which makes Kennedy a pretty solid player when combined with his defensive skills at second base. Kennedy is just another example of quality players who can be acquired for no cost by teams who know what they’re doing.

Joe Mauer has been one of the best hitters in the game for years. He owns a career .321 batting average and has walked more than he has struck out each year since 2006. His remarkable bat control has made him one of the game’s most valuable players, but questions about his lack of power have always followed him. Listed at 6’5 and 230 pounds, Mauer has the frame of a guy who should be able to drive the ball, but he’s never hit more than 13 home runs in a season. A compact, level swing and an opposite field approach have led him to develop into a really good singles hitter with gap power – until this year, anyway.

Since returning from the disabled list, Mauer has slugged eight home runs in 86 plate appearances. His next home run will tie his 2008 season total, and he’s 547 plate appearances away from matching his opportunities from last year. When you see a 26-year-old show a huge power spike like this, the natural assumption is that he’s finally learned to turn on the ball, and is starting to tap into his natural pull power.

The problem, however, is that it’s not true. Here’s his home run chart for 2009, via Hit Tracker Online:

Of the seven home runs that Hit Tracker has the data for (they’re still working on last night’s shot, I’m sure), five of them have been to the opposite field and two have been to dead center. The grand slam he hit yesterday against the White Sox was to nearly the same spot where he has hit all his other home runs. He has yet to pull the ball over the wall this season.

Now, opposite field home runs are great. Having a guy who can take a pitch on the outer half of the plate and deposit it over the wall drives pitchers nuts, and there’s no good way to pitch to a guy like Mauer. However, if we were looking for evidence that Mauer’s power surge in May has been caused by a significant shift in his abilities, we’d be more apt to give credence to the long ball barrage if it hadn’t been built on series of just enough shots to left center field.

Mauer’s a great hitter, and he’s having a great month. There’s probably some real power growth being displayed as he’s muscling balls over the wall in left field, but if he ever wants to be a 30+ home run guy, he’s going to have to pull the ball with some authority, and he’s not doing that right now.

I love Joe Mauer as a player, but if you were thinking that he’s showing signs of becoming one of the game’s elite sluggers, I don’t think it’s in the cards. He’s a fantastic hitter, but I wouldn’t count on seeing too many more months like this any time soon.

Over the past four years, few pitchers have been the punchline to more jokes than Carl Pavano. He was a total bust in New York, taking $40 million from the Yankees and offering nothing in return. His inability to stay healthy, or to pitch effectively on those rare days he did take the mound, made him despised by fans and teammates alike.

Over the winter, he hit the free agent market, and not surprisingly, there wasn’t a ton of interest in his services. He ended up signing an incentive laden one year contract with the Indians that guaranteed him just $1.5 million. Expectations were understandably low.

After his ninth start yesterday, Pavano’s ERA stands at 6.10. It would be easy to assume that he’s just continuing his downward descent out of baseball, and that Cleveland was simply the latest team to throw money away on the guy. It would also be remarkably untrue.

Pavano’s FIP currently stands at a robust 3.74, thanks to outstanding peripherals – 2.03 BB/9, 7.40 K/9, .92 HR/9, 45.9% GB%. Pavano’s racked up 40 strikeouts against just 11 walks in 48 2/3 innings, giving him a strikeout to walk rate equal to pitchers such as Erik Bedard, Aaron Harang, Jake Peavy, Ted Lilly, and Cliff Lee. That’s some pretty nifty company.

Pavano’s ERA has been inflated by a .370 batting average on balls in play, which will almost certainly improve as the year goes on. In fact, after a pessimistic preseason ZIPS projection that pegged him for a 5.18 FIP in 2009, the updated ZIPS now pegs him for a 4.36 FIP from here on out. After posting an ERA of 6.10 over 48 2/3 innings, ZIPS has been impressed enough to slash his projected FIP by 0.8 runs.

There’s probably no better example of why ERA isn’t a useful tool for evaluating pitchers anymore. Pavano’s got one of the highest marks in the league, but based on how he’s actually pitched, we should be revising our estimates significantly upward for his expected performance from here on out. His recovery probably won’t come in time to help save the Indians season, but a smart team may get a bargain at the deadline when they call Mark Shapiro and make a deal to bolster their pitching staff.

Today, the Padres actually made a trade. No, not the Peavy deal – that one is still up to the San Diego ace, who is trying to figure out if he wants to get exposed in the American League. While they were waiting to find out what their star pitcher would do, the Padres shipped off Jody Gerut to Milwaukee in exchange for Tony Gwynn Jr.

I guess no one else in baseball thought Gerut could repeat his 2008 season either.

Greut was quite the story last year, posting a .365 wOBA in 356 plate appearances after spending two years out of major league baseball. UZR even loved his defense in center field, giving him a +12.2 UZR/150 for the half season he spent patrolling Petco. The combination of good offense and terrific defense made Gerut a +3.2 win player.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to carry the magic over to 2009. In his first 221 plate appearances, he’s hitting .221/.248/.381, and while he’s still playing excellent defense in CF, the Padres apparently decided that last year’s offensive levels were a fluke. With Scott Hairston tearing the cover off the ball, Gerut was the odd man out, so they sent him to Milwaukee.

In exchange, they got Tony Gwynn Jr, who is a classic fifth outfielder and has about that much value. Gwynn cleared waivers six weeks ago, so he’s not exactly a hot commodity in baseball. Yea, he was hitting well and getting on base in Triple-A, but his total lack of power gives him limited upside. He could be a decent defensive replacement, but there’s a reason he has a .276 wOBA in the big leagues. There’s not much offense to be found in the younger Gwynn.

So, this essentially plays out like a salary dump. The Padres give up on Gerut after a slow start, saving a little bit of cash and picking up a replacement level league minimum outfielder in return. Gerut’s 2008 probably was a fluke, but I’m not sure why San Diego felt motivated to move on from a guy who was one of their best players last year when they aren’t really getting anything in return.

For what seems like the 387th time, Jake Peavy can go to Chicago if he wants to. Only this time, it’s the south side, as the White Sox and Padres have reportedly agreed on a deal that would Peavy to the Pale Hose for a group of unnamed prospects.

It’s obviously impossible to judge a deal like this when the return going to San Diego is unknown. However, I’m willing to bet that I’m not going to be a big fan of this move for the White Sox. Peavy has the statistics and reputation of being one of baseball’s premier pitchers, but when you strip away Petco Park and the National League, he’s more of a good pitcher than a great one.

For his career, Peavy has a 3.73 K/BB rate at Petco, and he’s allowed one home run every 56.3 plate appearances while pitching at home. On the road, his K/BB is 2.54, and he allows one home run every 30.8 plate appearances. The vast expanse of the outfield in San Diego not only turns long fly balls into outs, but it allows Peavy to be more aggressive with his pitch selection and challenge hitters with pitches he can’t get away with in stadiums that aren’t as forgiving. Away from Petco, hitters have put up a .245/.316/.419 line against him, which certainly isn’t bad, but also isn’t ace-like.

Then, you have to factor in the contract. Over the next 3 1/2 years, he’s owed about $57 million, and that jumps to $75 million over 4 1/2 years if the White Sox are required to pick up his 2013 option in order to get him to agree to the deal. Ace or not, Peavy is paid like one. It’s a huge monetary commitment, and while the White Sox certainly have money, that kind of required cost is a drag on Peavy’s value.

Parting with several good young players for the right to pay Peavy like a frontline starter and learn that he’s benefited tremendously from his environment doesn’t seem like a great idea to me. I’d imagine the Braves are pretty happy they didn’t end up making a deal for Peavy this winter, and the White Sox might be better off in the long run if the pitcher decides he wants to stay in the National League.

If I was a White Sox fan, I’d be hoping Peavy nukes this deal.

Going into the day, I was planning on writing this post about Dontrelle Willis. The guy shut out the Rangers last night for 6 1/3 innings, giving up one hit, walking two, and striking out five batters against one of the league’s best offenses. 60% of his pitches were strikes. He hit 93 on his fastball. In short, he looked like the D-Train of old, and gave the Tigers a needed shot in the arm.

Willis’ performance deserves a post of its own, but it will have to wait, because as I was writing it up, I got an email from R.J. Anderson to our author mailing list. It read as follows:

I’m guessing there’s an announcement coming soon, but the Pitch Type Linear Weights are amazing.

Wait, what? Pitch Type Linear Weights?

Since I was already on Willis’ player card, I scrolled down. Sure enough, there they are. Linear weight run values for each pitch type going back to 2003. My jaw hit the floor. If I wasn’t already married, I would propose to the FanGraphs stats section.

Want to know what pitch Dontrelle dominated with back in 2005? That would be his fastball, which was 44.1 runs above average that year. Or, for just sheer amazement, look at Zach Greinke’s pitches this year – all four of his pitches are at least +1 run better than average per 100 pitches (which is what the /c denotes), but his fastball and slider are just disgusting. Or you can look at Cliff Lee, who is dominating with his slider/cutter this year.

I’m a little bit biased, since I write here and all, but this is an amazing addition, and for us to have access to this kind of data – for free! – is mind blowing. Let’s all give David Appelman a standing ovation.

For the sake of Pacific Coast League pitchers, can the Cubs call up Jake Fox already? The 26-year-old first baseman is hitting .429/.513/.968 through 150 plate appearances for Iowa, which is ridiculous performance for any length of time against any competition. He has a .600 wOBA. Six hundred. The next closest hitter in wOBA is Mike McCroy, who is posting a .472 mark. The gap that exists between Fox and McCoy, numbers one and two on the PCL leaderboard, is the same as the one that exists between McCoy and Brandon Boggs, who is number 70 in the PCL in WOBA.

No, this isn’t anything close to Fox’s true talent level. Yes, the PCL inflates offensive levels. At some point, though, a .600 wOBA is a .600 wOBA, and you have to just say “hey, he’s earned a shot to hit in the big leagues”. It would be one thing if the Cubs were getting stellar production out of Derrek Lee, but they aren’t – the incumbent first baseman is hitting just .226/.300/.396, and ZIPs projects a .361 wOBA out of Lee over the rest of the season.

That’s decent enough production, but it’s not at a level where you can’t consider giving him some days off to work Fox’s bat into the line-up every once in a while. Even considering that Fox turns 27 in a few weeks and isn’t a top prospect, there’s just no reason to leave him in Triple-A any longer. Last year, the Rangers faced a similar situation with Nelson Cruz, and he went bananas on the American League after Texas finally got around to promoting him.

With the recent success of guys like Cruz, Jack Cust, and Russell Branyan, the idea of a AAAA power hitter is losing steam. These guys all blistered Triple-A pitching for years, but got written off as fastball only sluggers who couldn’t adjust to major league pitching. All three of them are among the better hitters in the American League right now – all they really needed was a team to give them a legitimate chance.

Fox is doing everything possible to earn his shot. The Cubs don’t have to dump Derrek Lee and go with the unproven youngster, but at the very least, they could get him on the roster and get a look at him in person. When a guy is hitting like this, there’s just no reason to hold him back any longer.

The Brewers suffered a blow yesterday when it was announced that Rickie Weeks would need season ending surgery on his wrist. Weeks was off to a strong start to the ’09 season, racking up a +1.5 win value in 162 plate appearances. He was showing significant power, and more importantly for a heavily right-handed Brewers line-up, he was lighting up right-handed pitching, helping Milwaukee compensate for a lack of left-handed bats in the line-up. Replacing Weeks’ production will be near impossible for the Brewers.

They do have options, though. Craig Counsell continues to defy the aging curve, showing surprising bat speed for a 38-year-old and playing his usual excellent defense. Counsell has been a league average major leaguer for each of the last three years, making him one of baseball’s best part-time players. He’s capable of stepping into a full time role at second and not creating a hole.

If the Brewers wanted to get a more offensive arrangement, they could slide Bill Hall over to second base and let Mat Gamel play third. However, with a pitch to contact staff and a defense that is one of the main reasons the surging Brewers are in first place, the team is understandably wary of downgrading significantly at two infield spots and forcing their starting pitchers to overcome the gloves behind them rather than be empowered by them.

The Brewers have options. This is one of the reasons teams have become reluctant to move “blocked” players, as injuries inevitably pile up and allow the team to avoid panicking when they are forced to deviate from their original plan. Milwaukee fans should be grateful that they have a management staff who gave them a roster that could handle the loss of one of their better players. Rather than having to ship off a prospect to bring in a stop gap replacement, the Brewers can patch the hole at second base for the rest of 2009 internally, and then give Weeks his job back next spring.

Losing Weeks will hurt the Brewers, but it won’t cripple them, thanks to good planning and resource allocation by the front office.

Just as we thought that baseball was returning to normalcy, we have a week like the last one, where unexpected and interesting things occur. Let’s take a look at what we learned in the last seven days.

The Rangers aren’t going away.

Texas is riding a seven game winning streak thanks to some terrific performances from their position players. They continued thumping the ball as always, hitting .277/.352/.505, but those same big bats also continued to flash the leather – the Rangers held opponents to just a .259 batting average on balls in play last week, and they continue to impress with their ability to take away hits and support their pitching staff. Elvis Andrus is the early leader in the clubhouse for American League Rookie of the Year, as he’s playing at a +4 win level through the early part of the season. Not bad for a 20-year-old.

The Tigers role players can hit.

Detroit got some monster offensive performances last week, but it wasn’t Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, or Curtis Granderson swinging the hot bat. Try Ramon Santiago, Jeff Larish, and Ryan Raburn instead. Those three had wOBAs of .870, .615, and .605 respectively over the last seven days. Santiago, in particular, is trying to prove that last year’s offensive surge was for real. He was one of the worst hitters in baseball during his early career, but he hit .282/.411/.460 in ’08 and he’s followed it up with a .352/.386/.611 line so far this year. This is a guy with a career .353 slugging percentage in the minor leagues, and he racked up six extra base hits in 12 at-bats last week. Baseball is a crazy, weird game.

The Cardinals miss Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick

With two of their regular outfielders on the disabled list, St. Louis needed to get some help from their reserves last week. They didn’t get it. Chris Duncan went 1 for 13. Colby Rasmus went 3 for 16. Nick Stavinoha and Shane Robinson combined to go 6 for 26. Those four gave them a whopping two extra base hits in five games. Albert Pujols is awesome, but he can’t do it by himself. St. Louis is going to have to get some production from positions other than first base while their two starters are on the DL, or they’re going to be digging themselves out of a hole by the time they get back.

Strikeouts are great and all, but home runs are a killer.

The Florida Marlins pitching staff racked up an impressive 9.35 K/9 last week, which isn’t all that surprising considering the talent they have in their rotation. Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and Chris Volstad are all very good arms capable of making hitters look foolish. Unfortunately, all three made mistakes in the strike zone as well, and they paid dearly for it, as the Marlins also gave up 1.76 HR/9, which was the driving force behind their 6.35 ERA. You can strike out all the batters you want, but if you keep giving up the long ball, you aren’t going to win too many games.

David Wright doesn’t want to be blamed for the Mets struggles.

An early season target for criticism, Wright has shut up those who were picking his game apart to begin the year. Last week, he hit .556/.625/.741 and stole five bases to boot, making him one of the game’s most productive all-around players. The updated ZIPS projection here on the site has Wright hitting 23 more home runs and stealing 19 more bases, which would give him 26 home runs and 29 steals to end the year. He’s got a legitimate shot at 30-30 if he can stay hot, and you don’t get that kind of power-speed production from a corner infielder very often. Wright is legitimately one of the superstars in today’s game, and hopefully people will begin to realize just how good this kid is.