Last year at this time, I was writing articles about the disappearance of Justin Verlander’s fastball. He was averaging just 92 MPH with his best pitch and getting beaten around because of it. His velocity recovered a bit as the season went on, but he had his worst year as a pro and entered the 2009 season as something of a question mark.

Through his first three starts of 2009, his ERA is 7.88, and he’s only managed to get through 16 innings. With another season where he’s getting poor results in April, one might assume that Verlander’s just continuing his regression from last year.

One would be wrong.

Forget the results – Verlander is back to his ’06 form. His fastball is averaging 95.6 MPH, and he’s consistently hitting 97 when he’s throwing it by people. That’s showing up in his true outcome categories as well – he’s striking out 11.25 batters per nine innings through his first three starts. His ERA is skewed by a ridiculous 38.6% LOB%, essentially pointing to the fact that other teams have bunched their hits together against him, and that’s just not going to continue. He’s also had some brutal defense played behind him so far (Carlos Guillen defended like he had been drinking before taking his left field spot on Friday night), and a .389 BABIP won’t continue.

If there’s one pitcher whose results haven’t matched his underlying performance so far, it’s Verlander. If he was a stock, I’d be yelling “Buy! Buy!” like the mad money guy on CNBC. If you play in a fantasy league and the guy who owns Verlander doesn’t read FanGraphs, make a phone call and see if you can buy low. If you’re a Tigers fan who is frustrated by Verlander, have some patience – your ace is back.

As Eric mentioned this morning, a few of our Monday posts are going to become weekly staples. He’s doing Game Of The Week, while R.J. pulls some nuggets from the past week’s UZR update. I’ll be looking back at the main stories from the past seven days and what we can glean from what happened. So, What Did We Learn in Week 2?

The Marlins are better than the Nationals.

Florida has the best record in baseball, racing off to a 11-1 start. Normally, winning 11 of 12 would open a lot of eyes around the game, but this hot streak has one problem – it was built on playing half of their games against the hapless Washington Nationals. The Nationals are a train wreck, and are clearly the worst team in baseball at this point. It’s good for Florida to take advantage of advantageous scheduling and rack up wins against an inferior opponent, but they don’t get play Washington every week.

The Marlins are a nice early story, but don’t expect it to continue. They lead the National League in runs per game at 6.42, but that is mostly due to clutch hitting. They have a good but not great .350 wOBA, so even if they were able to sustain this level of offensive performance, they’d still see a reduction in run scoring the rest of the year.

Florida might have the best record in baseball, but it’s the Dodgers who have played better than any other team so far. LA has racked up 6.1 value wins compared to the 4.2 wins that the Marlins have accumulated. Win-Loss records don’t always tell the story. If you want to be impressed with a National League team that is playing better than any other, look west.

There’s something wrong with Chien-Ming Wang.

Wang has made three starts so far in 2009.

April 8th @ Baltimore: 3 2/3 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 3 BB, 0 K, 1 HR, 8 GB, 10 FB
April 13th @ Tampa: 1 IP, 6 H, 8 R, 3 BB, 1 K, 0 HR, 3 GB, 4 FB
April 18th @ Cleveland: 1 1/3 IP, 8 H, 8 R, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HR, 2 GB, 9 FB

Wang has been one of the most extreme groundball pitchers in baseball since his arrival in New York. His career GB% is 60.0%. Through his first three starts, it’s 28.6%. Only seven other starting pitchers in baseball have a lower GB%. His sinker isn’t sinking, and opposing hitters are teeing off on what is essentially a batting practice pitch right now.

Whether it’s mechanical issues or an injury, Wang isn’t himself right now. The Yankees would do well to skip his start this week in an effort to get him back to the pitcher he used to be, because this incarnation isn’t major league quality.

The Angels are facing a decade’s worth of adversity.

Most everyone had the Angels as contenders, if not favorites, for the AL West this year. However, I can’t recall an organization that has had more things go wrong in such a short period of time. They went into spring training with Kelvim Escobar rehabbing, so they knew that he wouldn’t be ready for the start of the season. But then John Lackey and Ervin Santana joined him on the disabled list with arm problems, knocking out the front of the Angels rotation.

This was followed by the tragic death of Nick Adenhart. As if they weren’t already dealing with enough, news came out this week that Vladimir Guerrero had a pectoral injury that would sideline him for at least a month and likely longer. As icing on the cake, Dustin Moseley left his start on Friday after three innings with elbow pain and landed on the disabled list.

That’s four starting pitchers and their franchise hitter on the DL, plus a horrible death in the family to have to deal with. It might just be too much for any team to overcome.

One of the basic truisms of a baseball season is that offensive levels are lower at the start of the season than they will be in the middle. Cold weather in April is the most accepted reason for why it takes a few months for offensive levels to normalize, and you can look back at pretty much any season and find that pitchers have an early season advantage over hitters.

This year, however, that doesn’t seem to be the case. MLB is averaging 4.96 runs per game so far in 2009, up from a league average 4.65 runs per game in 2008. It’s pretty rare to see run scoring in April higher than the league average from the previous season.

The main culprit appears to be a rise in home run rate. Last April, there was ahome run hit every 43 plate appearances. That number ended the season at one per 38 PA, as the ball flew better in warmer weather. So far this year, we’re at one home run per 34 plate appearances, accounting for 311 total home runs to date. At last year’s pace, we’d only have 248 home runs.

According to Greg Rybarczyk, who runs Hit Tracker Online, it isn’t just the number of home runs being hit either – the home runs are flying further than they used to, by an average of 8.5 feet per home run. Even with a limited sample, the probability of a deviation of that kind of distance is extremely unlikely to be caused by random chance.

After seeing run scoring levels decrease the last few years, we might be in for a spike in 2009. It’s worth monitoring, at least.

With the major league season only ten days old, you’re bound to see some things that make you sit up and say “how is that possible?” Endy Chavex has more home runs than Manny Ramirez. Ian Kinsler got more hits last night than Brian Giles has in 39 plate appearances. The Mariners, Marlins, and Padres are in first place.

But nothing has surprised me more than looking at Mike Hampton’s pitching line so far – 11 innings pitched, 13 strikeouts. Thirteen strikeouts. For Mike Hampton. In 46 batters faced.

Hampton has a career K/9 of 5.50, which is inflated by his early career performances. In 2005, he struck out 3.5 batters per nine innings, then proceeded to miss two years with various problems. He returned last year to pitch half a season, striking our 4.38 batters per nine. Through his first two starts of ’09, he’s got a 10.64 K/9 – 10th highest in baseball, right behind Tim Lincecum.

Seriously, the major league K/9 leaderboard goes Lincecum-Hampton-Peavy. Which of these is not like the others?

Now, this isn’t to disparage Hampton. I liked the signing when it occurred, and when healthy, he’s a pretty decent pitcher. But he’s not a strikeout guy, by any means. So when he strikes out 28% of the batters he faces over two starts, it gets noticed.

Curious, I decided to look at the Pitch F/x numbers on Hampton’s start yesterday. Thanks to the remarkably awesome tool developed by Dan Brooks, I don’t even have to do any work. Take a look at these graphs.

Hampton throws five distinct pitches – a four seam fastball, a two seam fastball/cut fastball, a curve, a slider, and a change-up. He mixes them extremely well, alternating speeds and keeping hitters off balance. His two seam fastball and change-up have similar movements, adding to the deception. His curve and slider are distinctly different, and he’ll use the slider more against right-handed batters. The change-up is almost exclusively used against right-handed bats, and is the main reason that he’s actually been better against RH batters than LH batters throughout his career.

There’s not much velocity in there, but in terms of being able to vary his arsenal and keep hitters guessing, Hampton has a really good repertoire of pitches. He’s not going to keep striking hitters out at this rate, but for as long as he can avoid the Disabled List, he’s going to be a solid starting pitcher for the Astros.

When you think of relief pitchers, pretty much everyone thinks of hard throwers who come in and fire 95 MPH fastballs for 20 pitches or so. Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge – they all bring big fastballs to the table. This is the prototype for a reliever.

The Tampa Bay Rays don’t care about prototypes. Their bullpen has an average fastball velocity of 87.7 MPH so far this year. It’s Grant Balfour (93.7 MPH) and a bunch of soft-tossing ninnies. Troy Percival’s the only other reliever who averages above 90 MPH, and several of them are way under that line.

Brian Shouse throws an 81 MPH fastball, and he’s thrown 83% of the time. J.P. Howell checks in with his 85 MPH heater, but he’s just as likely to throw a curve or a change. Joe Nelson and Dan Wheeler sit at 87-ish. Lance Cormier is averaging 88.7 MPH on his fastball.

The Rays have the token hard throwing/bad command guy, and then a bullpen full of pitchers who survive on control, movement, and deception. This is a conscious choice, too – the market for hard throwing relievers tumbled this winter, and any team who wanted to add a few for nothing had the chance.

Tampa decided they’d rather go with the softies. So far, it hasn’t exactly worked out – Percival continues to look like his career should be over and Wheeler may or may not be hurt, so the team could be shopping for a couple new bullpen arms pretty soon.

Last year, Eric pointed you to a video of switch-pitcher Pat Venditte facing switch-hitter Ralph Henriquez. The match-up was a sensation and led to “The Pat Venditte rule”, as the Professional Baseball Umpries Corporation issued an official ruling on how such situations should be handled going forward.

Needless to say, Venditte has gotten significantly more recognition than most 20th round picks. However, with the way he’s pitched as a professional, he’s giving people reason to think that he might be more than a circus sideshow.

Last year, Venditte threw 32 2/3 innings, walked 10, struck out 42, and allowed just two home runs. His FIP was 2.34 – however, an older pitcher with college experience should be able to pitch well out of the bullpen in short-season ball, so he needed to continue to prove himself as a professional. So far, so good – his first four innings in full season ball have resulted in just two hits, no walks, and six strikeouts.

At some point, the Yankees are going to have to decide that he’s too good for the low minors and find out if his stuff can play at higher levels. Scouts continue to question his ability to get good hitters out with below average stuff, but his ability to always have the platoon advantage covers a multitude of sins. It’d be great for baseball if Venditte could prove that he had the chops to make it in the big show, so let’s hope the Yankees move him up this year and let the experiment get a real test.

After all, who doesn’t want a switch-pitcher to succeed?

After the Yankees acquired Nick Swisher from the White Sox this winter, it was assumed he’d play first base for the Bombers. Then, they opened their wallets to sign Mark Teixeira, and Swisher became a man without a job. The Yankees fielded phone calls for both he and Xavier Nady, but decided that the offers didn’t make sense, and that they’d rather just go into the season with some extra depth.

That looks to have been the right decision. Swisher has been on fire to start the season, leading the majors with a ridiculous .682 wOBA. 9 of his 11 hits have gone for extra bases, as he’s quickly registering 2008 as an aberration rather than some kind of downward trend. With the way he’s swinging the bat, there’s no way the Yankees can keep him out of the line-up.

Now, they don’t have to. Nady left last night’s game with a “sharp pain” in his elbow, which is hardly ever good news. Even if he only requires a short stint on the DL, it’s unlikely that he’ll have a job waiting for him when he gets back. Swisher is the better player anyway, and his remarkable first week performance has endeared him to Yankee fans. Coming out of the bullpen to pitch mop-up duty didn’t hurt his reputation, either.

The old cliche is that the best trades are the ones you don’t make. In Brian Cashman’s case, that’s probably true for this winter – by keeping Swisher around as a nifty insurance policy, he’s allowed the team to not miss a beat despite early injuries to both Teixeira and Nady. There’s no rule against entering the season with 10 guys who deserve a starting job, and the Yankees are certainly benefiting from keeping Swisher around, even without a defined role for him when the year began.

The San Diego Padres have started the season 6-2, surprising almost everyone. They weren’t pegged as a preseason contender by anyone, and opposing teams were already circling the calendars for when Jake Peavy and Brian Giles would be made available in trade talks. The main reason the Padres have started strong has been their pitching – the team’s 3.51 FIP ranks 5th best in MLB.

However, more interesting than the fact that they’ve pitched well for eight games are how the Padres put together this rag tag bunch. They’ve redefined dumpster diving, cornering the market on pitchers that other teams are discarding.

On March 15th, they signed Duaner Sanchez to a minor league contract. He had just been released by the Mets.

On March 23rd, they signed Shawn Hill to a minor league contract. He had just been released by the Nationals.

On March 25th, they acquired Eulogio de la Cruz in exchange for cash. He had just been designated for assignment by the Marlins.

On April 1st, they acquired Edward Mujica for a player to be named. He had just been designated for assignment by the Indians.

On April 10th, they claimed Luis Perdomo on waivers. He had just been let go by the San Francisco Giants.

On April 11th, they signed Chad Gaudin to a minor league contract. He had just been released by the Cubs.

In the span of the month, the Padres have added six pitchers to their organization, with the total acquisition cost being a player to be named later and some cash. And that’s just the recent additions. Kevin Correia was signed to a minor league contract over the winter. Walter Silva was signed out of the Mexican Leagues. Edwin Moreno was signed as a minor league free agent. Cha Seung Baek was acquired for cash after the Mariners designated him for assignment last year.

The Padres have essentially assembled a pitching made up mostly of rejects from other organizations. They’re operating like the baseball version of an outlet store. And so far, it’s working. You can only smoke-and-mirror your way to first place for so long, but at the least, the Padres are proving that you don’t have to invest heavily in the pitching market to find useful arms.

In an article today, Tom Boswell suggested that the Nationals may unclog their outfield by sending Lastings Milledge back to Triple-A. He suggests that the move would send a message to Milledge that his attitude needs to change. I’d suggest that might be where he belongs anyway.

Yes, Milledge is young and toolsy – he just turned 24 years of age, and he’s been a highly regarded prospect for as long as people can remember. However, he’s been a fairly abysmal major league player so far in his career, and he’s not exactly showing improvement.

Last year, Milledge posted a .325 wOBA, which made him just slightly below average as a hitter. For a center fielder, that’s not bad. Of course, we have some evidence that Milledge isn’t actually a center fielder – his UZR last year in CF was -18.5, which goes along with reports of him running circuitous routes in the outfield. That kind of putrid defense canceled out almost all of his offensive value, so Milledge’s total contribution to the team in 2008 was 0.1 wins.

To begin 2009, he’s 4 for 26 with an ugly 10/1 K/BB ratio. He’s not showing any improved selectivity at the plate, and he doesn’t have the contact abilities to make up for a lousy approach. Toss in some more bad routes in the outfield, and Milledge is simply continuing his pattern of replacement level performance as a major leaguer.

His age and physical abilities will buy him a long leash, but the Nationals are 0-7 in a season where rebuilding credibility with the fan base is a priority. With too many outfielders on the roster, a trip back to the minors might be in everyone’s best interest. Milledge has some significant improving to do before he can lay claim to an everyday job, and the Nationals have better options on the roster. How much longer do they put up with replacement level performance from a kid who should be able to produce much more?

Back in 2005, Daniel Cabrera’s fastball averaged 96.2 MPH and his slider was 87.5 MPH – both were the fastest of any starting pitcher in baseball. Even with horrible command, he managed a 4.02 FIP by accumulating ground balls and strikeouts with a power repertoire.

The pitcher masquerading as Cabrera for the Nationals is not that guy. In his first start of the year, his fastball averaged 91.9 MPH and his slider averaged 78.2 MPH.

Today, he started against the Philadelphia Phillies. He threw 94 pitches. According to Pitch F/x data, the fastest of those pitches was 91.4 MPH. 19 of the 94 pitches were faster than 90 MPH. His fastball averaged 89.2 MPH. His slider averaged 75 MPH.

We’re talking about a 7 MPH drop in his fastball velocity and a 13 MPH drop (!) in his slider velocity. He’s gone from an A.J. Burnett type arm to a Dustin Moseley type arm in five years. I find it hard to believe that there’s not some kind of underlying injury here, because this kind of loss of stuff is practically unprecedented.

Yes, stuff declines as a pitcher ages, but not like this. 96 MPH fastballs don’t turn into 89 MPH fastballs without some kind of reason. You don’t go from throwing a power slider into throwing a HS breaking ball just due to normal wear and tear. There has to be an explanation for why Cabrera is suddenly a 6’7 soft-tosser, doesn’t there?

For Nationals fans, whether he’s hurt or not isn’t particularly relevant. He’s only with the team on a one year deal as they tried to squeeze some value out of a reclamation project. If he’s not healthy, that experiment is down the drain. Of course, given his current stuff, that experiment is already down the drain. Cabrera, with an 89 MPH fastball, has no upside.

Unless someone can figure out what went wrong and fix it, he’s going to go down as one of the more spectacular examples of pitcher attrition we’ve ever seen.