One quick note – for those of you wondering why these are so different from the “organizational rankings” I did on USS Mariner in 2007, it’s clearly a different criteria, which is explicitly stated in the explanation of that post. And, if you’re one of the 0.1% actually leaving intelligent responses in the comments section, I’m sorry, but for obvious reasons, they’re getting lost in the noise of the masses.

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies
#13: Los Angeles Dodgers

#12: Texas Rangers

Ownership: B-

Since Tom Hicks bought the Rangers, he’s poured a mountain of money into the franchise. The “buy a ton of free agents” plan didn’t work out, so now, he’s allowed the front office to develop talent internally, but the capital will still be there when they need it. Budget problems won’t be an issue as long as Hicks owns the team. He’s been too involved in some personnel decisions (the Michael Young contract, for instance) and the hiring of Nolan Ryan to serve as a check on GM Jon Daniels just added an extra chef to the kitchen, but Hicks isn’t overly meddlesome, mostly allowing the front office to do its job.

Front Office: B

Let’s just get this out of the way – Daniels has made some really bad trades, no question. The Adrian Gonzalez deal and the John Danks deal were bad moves that blew up in his face. But focusing on just those two moves hides a track record of identifying young talent and building a solid foundation for the future – he turned Ricardo Rodriguez into Vicente Padilla, Kenny Lofton into Max Ramirez, Mark Teixeira into Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, and Jarrod Saltlamacchia (seriously, holy crap), and Eric Gagne into David Murphy and Engel Beltre. He identified Josh Hamilton as a franchise cornerstone, and though he paid a steep price in Edinson Volquez, building around an outfielder is smarter than building around a pitcher. The Rangers front office has done a good job of accumulating talent, and there are some smart people working in Arlington. If you just judge them on their recent win loss record, you’re missing the bigger picture – the Rangers are an organization on the upswing, and they’ll be reaping the rewards of their hard work shortly.

Major League Talent: C

From the perspective of a young core, the Rangers have a top notch group. Hamilton, Kinsler, Davis, Cruz, and the Saltalamacchia/Teagardan/Ramirez catching trio give the team impressive young talent at five positions, plus enviable catching depth that they should be able to convert into useful pieces that fit in elsewhere. David Murphy, Marlon Byrd, and Michael Young are solid role players that round out an offense that will be among the league’s best. The problem, as always, is the pitching. Kevin Millwood is the only decent starting pitcher the Rangers have, and he’s not exactly a building block for the future. However, with the team focusing on improving their defense by shifting Young to third and getting a real shortstop into the line-up, the team’s run prevention should be somewhat improved while they wait to develop a couple of arms. They probably won’t win in 2009, but they’re poised to be very dangerous in 2010.

Minor League Talent: A+

It doesn’t getting any better than this. Neftali Feliz, Justin Smoak, and Elvis Andrus might be the best prospects in the game at their respective positions. Derek Holland, Michael Main, and Martin Perez give the organization talented pitching depth. Engel Beltre and Julio Borbon have to fight to fit into the team’s top 10 prospects, while they’d be the best prospect in other systems. It’s just a ridiculous collection of talent knocking on the door in Arlington. Even with the attrition rate of prospects, they should get two or three franchise cornerstones out of this group, and that might be conservative. This kind of talent depth is similar to what the Rays accumulated a couple of years ago. That worked out okay, I think.

Overall: B

The Rangers have been a punch line for several years, but that’s not going to continue for much longer. With a remarkable group of young talent, an underrated front office, and an owner who isn’t afraid to invest in the product, Texas has the ability to get good in a hurry. By acknowledging their defensive shortcomings, they’ve already made steps in the right direction, re-aligning their talent to give their pitchers a fighting chance. Give them another year of development, and the Rangers are going to be a force in the AL West.

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners
#14: Philadelphia Phillies

#13: Los Angeles Dodgers

Ownership: B

This one’s tough, honestly. When McCourt was buying the team from News Corp, there were all kinds of questions about his financial viability. During his first few years of owning the team, they had the messy DePodesta situation, which was handled quite poorly. McCourt has also taken to putting his family members into high level jobs within the organization, which is hardly ever a good idea. And during the Manny Ramirez negotiations, it became pretty clear that McCourt was an active participant in the decision making process of the front office. So he’s got some baggage. But, he’s consistently provided the team with significant budget room, and they have strong revenue streams thanks to their market and established fan base. They have a financial advantage over the rest of their division, and that doesn’t look likely to end any time soon.

Front Office: D+

Ned Colletti learned from Brian Sabean. Perhaps that’s all that needs to be said? Since taking over as the Dodgers GM, he’s made a few disastrous moves. The signings of Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre, and Andruw Jones couldn’t have worked out any worse than they have. He drastically overpaid to get Casey Blake, losing top catching prospect Carlos Santana in the process. And he’s managed to put together a decent but not great roster for 2009 despite the most resources of any team in the division. Like Sabean, he ignores most of the new analytical processes in baseball and manages with his gut, which has led him astray too many times. He does have some strengths (especially as it relates to scouting), but he’s got a lot of work to do before he’s a quality GM.

Major League Talent: A-

The young core of Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Russell Martin, James Loney, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, and Jonathan Broxton is an enviable one to build around. Toss in quality veterans such as Furcal, Hudson, Kuroda, and some guy named Manny, and the Dodgers have a team capable of winning the NL West both in 2009 and going forward. The roster isn’t without holes, of course – the back end of the pitching staff could use some work, the setup men trying to get the ball to Broxton are question marks, Furcal’s health isn’t a given, and the team has to figure out how to get Martin days off more often, but overall, it’s a good team that’s built around players who shouldn’t be expected to take big steps backwards. They’ll need to continue to plug in solid veteran role players to compliment the core, but the pieces are in place.

Minor League Talent: C+

The team lacks a true standout prospect, instead going with a cornucopia of interesting guys with question marks. Ethan Martin is a good arm, but as a HS pitching prospect with no pro experience, he couldn’t be further from the majors. James McDonald lacks the classic big fastball of a top pitching prospect, but has almost everything else. Andrew Lambo might turn into Adam Dunn, but that’s not as good a player as most people think. Ivan DeJesus is out for the year, and while Scott Elbert is healthy right now, whether he will be tomorrow or not isn’t certain.

Overall: B-

Given their talent base and their market, there’s no reason the Dodgers shouldn’t dominate the NL West. That they don’t is mostly poor management, and while the team has been able to overcome a series of bad moves, they won’t be able to forever. Colletti is either going to have to improve as a GM or get replaced. Thankfully, the young talent on the roster should keep the team afloat while they figure out how to get the front office in order, and with a better management team in place, the potential for a top tier franchise is in place. Until they tap into that potential, though, they rate as just a bit above average.

One quick note before we get to the next report – due to the Nationals inexplicable decision to release Shawn Hill yesterday, they’ve been dropped a spot on the list. They now rank #31, and we’ve promoted the North Carolina Tar Heels to the #30 spot. At least they have a few quality big league players and aren’t run by consulting the magic 8 ball.

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles
#15: Seattle Mariners

#14: Philadelphia Phillies

Ownership: A

The Phillies ownership group is most notable for their absence. When a Philadelphia magazine did a story on the investors in the group, they actually hired a private investigator to help them obtain photos, since none existed in the public domain. It doesn’t get much more silent partner than this group, who have stayed in the background, funded the team, and basically kept to themselves. With a new stadium and coming off a World Series title, the ownership agreed to be one of the few MLB teams to increase the budget for the ’09 season, and they’ve continually been in the top level of payroll for the last five years. Well capitalized, no interference from upper management, a new ballpark, a big market… tough to ask for much more.

Front Office: C

While Pat Gillick was no fan of the movement towards statistical analysis in baseball, in a lot of ways, he valued the same things they do but just used a different path to get there. He consistently paid for quality defense, patient hitters, and premium up the middle talent. So, while he eschewed modern advances in analytics, he also put together good teams that could win in the short term. Ruben Amaro, however, looks to be a combination of most of the bad and not that much of the good. He shares Gillick’s distrust of modern baseball analysis, but lacks the good qualities that allowed Gillick to succeed. In addition, the promotion of Amaro drove talented scout Mike Arbuckle from the organization, which is a significant blow to the team’s brain trust.

Major League Talent: B+

I can hear the screams now – the defending World Champs get a B+? The horror. Unfortunately for Phillies fans, their championship run was fueled by performances that we simply can’t expect to be repeated. I like Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino as much as the next guy, but you’re not getting +9.5 wins from those two again. Pat Burrell’s been replaced by the inferior Raul Ibanez. Jimmy Rollins UZR was higher last year than in the previous two seasons put together. Brad Lidge isn’t perfect. Chase Utley is headed for his decline phase and battling hip problems. There’s just a lot of places on this team to expect regression, and while they should still be a contender for 2009, they have some issues that didn’t get addressed this winter.

Minor League Talent: B-

This is an interesting collection of talent. Carlos Carrasco is a good arm with a plus change-up, but inconsistent results and some health questions. Dominic Brown is an extremely athletic, high upside outfielder, but there are questions about his power and whether he can stick in CF. Michael Taylor is a beast of a man who can hit the tar out of a baseball, but his approach isn’t good and his defense is worse, and that skillset has huge bust potential. Kyle Drabek had a good arm before TJ surgery. Lou Marson and Jason Donald are more nifty depth than potential starters. There’s not a sure thing in the bunch, but lots of intriguing upside and very happy best case scenarios.

Overall: B-

Pat Gillick has a long history of leaving franchises in ruins when he walks away. He didn’t destroy the Phillies in the same way that he did the Blue Jays, Orioles, or Mariners, but he left enough holes to patch that Ruben Amaro is going to have to be an extremely quick learner in order to keep the team a perennial contender. He has the funds to compete, but I’m skeptical that he’s going to know which players are worth spending money on. If the farm system doesn’t produce a couple of high quality players in the next year or two, the Phillies age will catch up them very quickly.

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox
#16: Baltimore Orioles

#15: Seattle Mariners

Ownership: B

The Mariners ownership group does three things – make sure the team operates at a profit, spends a lot of money on the franchise, and occasionally gets involved in negotiations with Japanese players. Of these three things, the first two are far more important than the latter, which has honestly been quite overblown. Yes, the ownership stepped in and gave Kenji Johjima an inexplicable contract extension last spring, but they also stepped in and convinced Ichiro to sign a below market contract extension during the summer of 2007. Johjima’s first contract was a boon for the franchise, as was Kaz Sasaki’s deal with the M’s. Overall, the net value to the franchise from ownership’s involvement with Japanese players has been positive, not negative. They’ve given new GM Jack Zduriencik near total autonomy, and offer more than enough capital to build a championship baseball club. A beautiful stadium, a massive geographic market, and well capitalized ownership give the Mariners a fiscal advantage over most franchises.

Front Office: B

What would an organization look like if it combined one of the most respected scouts in the industry with significant input from the cream of the crop in advanced analytical techniques? We’re about to find out. There’s no questioning Zduriencik’s eye for talent, as he was one of the main cogs in the machine that built the Milwaukee Brewers. Upon his hiring, there were some fears that the Mariners were hiring another Gillick/Bavasi old school type, but that couldn’t have been further from the truth. Since the new administration took over, the M’s have hired Tom Tango (inventor of half of the cool stuff here on FanGraphs), created a Department of Baseball Research to be staffed by sabermetricians, replaced their advance scouting with a video database, and then showed how to put the new found intelligence in the organization to use, collecting significant undervalued assets, hiring an analytical coaching staff, and building a depth of talent that should allow the Mariners to surprise most people this season while simultaneously building for the future.

Major League Talent: C+

Much like the Orioles, the national perception of the Mariners ’09 roster is based more on incorrect generalities than an actual look at the talent on the team. Yes, they lost 101 games last year, but no, that doesn’t really matter when it comes to projecting 2009. This is a .500ish ballclub for the upcoming year and one with a significant core of young talent – Felix Hernandez, Brandon Morrow, Jose Lopez, Jeff Clement, and Franklin Gutierrez are building blocks under team control for years to come, and are complimented by high quality veterans such as Ichiro, Adrian Beltre, and Erik Bedard. Yes, there are some lingering lousy contracts from the past administration, but only Silva and Johjima extend beyond 2009, and the Mariners have more than enough capital to overcome $15 million in wasted salary.

Minor League Talent: C+

The top end of the Mariners farm system is brimming with both upside and risk. Carlos Triunfel could be a +4 win player on talent, but he’s several years from the majors and is mostly projection at this point. Greg Halman has Alfonso Soriano upside, but is a lot more Juan Encarnacion today. Phillippe Aumont flashed his first round arm in the WBC, but he’s only thown 60 innings in low-A ball as a pro. There are no sure things on the farm, so while the team has a lot of talent, the bust potential is very high across the board. They’ve compensated for that risk by compiling significant depth, including adding players such as Mickael Cleto, Mike Carp, Jason Vargas, and Ezequiel Carrera in the J.J. Putz deal, and Garret Olson in the Aaron Heilman deal. The team has significant risk at the top end, but also a much stronger than recognized middle group (the Mariners #6 to #15 prospects are probably in the top five in the game for that range), and having that much quantity is a good way to offset some of the risk involved with the high end guys.

Overall: B-

I fully expect most of you to believe that this is a prematurely optimistic estimate of the front office. That’s fine – I’m actually more concerned that this rating is too conservative, honestly. They’ve combined the best of the scouting world with the best of the sabermetric world and get to play with a top ten payroll to boot. They have to dig out of a bit of a hole left by the Bavasi regime, but the hole isn’t as big as you might think, and a lot of the heavy lifting has already been done. Despite being buried by the national consensus, the team has a 15% or so chance of winning the AL West this year (seriously), and the 2009 team will likely be the least talented one that Zduriencik puts on the field for the foreseeable future. Things are looking up in Seattle, and given their resources and the direction of the front office, the Mariners are poised to make a big leap forward.

Oh, and one final note – I fully expect the “you’re a biased Mariner fan” claim to show up early and often in the comments section. Just so you’re aware, though, the historical complaint about my writing from Mariner fans have been that I’ve been too pessimistic about the team. So, while it will be nice to be accused of the opposite kind of bias for once, how about we try to rise above analytical laziness and discuss the organization’s strengths and weaknesses and get away from statements about the credibility of an author who writes something you might not agree with?

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins
#17: Chicago White Sox

#16: Baltimore Orioles

Ownership: C

Peter Angelos has a well earned reputation of being a meddlesome owner. He’s made no secret over the years that he expects to have a say in how the team is run, and has held veto power over transactions during his time in control of the organization. However, since the arrival of Andy MacPhail, Angelos has taken a much more hands off approach – my guess would be that this was a condition of MacPhail taking the job. If this continues, then the Orioles may have the best of both worlds – an owner who wants to win and is willing to spend money to do so but has marching orders from his GM to keep arms length from the baseball operations department. However, we can’t ignore that Angelos has meddled before, and will likely have the desire to do so again. It will be interesting to see how involved he wants to be the next time the Orioles are in contention and are looking to make a trade.

Front Office: B

After years of lousy decisions, no direction, and a total lack of leadership in the front office, MacPhail has been a breath of fresh air for Baltimore fans. Since taking over, he’s put the team on a path towards building for the future, has made several astute trades to acquire quality young talent, drafted well, and locked up the team’s two best players to long term contracts. Turning around the Orioles franchise was a monumental task, but MacPhail and his team have done yeomen’s work in that regard, and the Orioles are certainly on the upswing.

Major League Talent: B-

I don’t know if people realize it or not, but this team actually isn’t bad. Not just for the future, but right now. Their outfield defense will be among the best in the game, they have a couple of solid fielders up the middle on the infield, and their offense should be one of the best in the league. Nick Markakis, Brian Roberts, and Adam Jones are all-star talents (obviously, Markakis and Roberts are already there), while Aubrey Huff, Luke Scott, Felix Pie, and Melvin Mora should be solid role players and give the line-up some depth. The rotation is thin after Jeremy Guthrie, but there’s some potential for usefulness with Rich Hill, Koji Uehara, and Mark Hendrickson. Honestly, the Orioles could probably contend in the AL West this year – their division will hold them back, but the talent base is in place for a good run.

Minor League Talent: A-

Since Matt Wieters hasn’t made his major league debut yet, I’m sticking him here, even if he is probably a top ten major league catcher right now. He’s the best prospect we’ve seen in years, and as close to a sure thing as you’ll ever get from a guy who hasn’t stepped foot in the big leagues. But the system doesn’t end with Wieters – Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz are two of the best young arms in the minors, while Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe, and David Hernandez are an excellent group of second tier pitching prospects. The Orioles are about to get a significant infusion of young talent, and several of these players will join the core of the next good Orioles team.

Overall: B-

After being the laughingstock of the American League for most of this decade, the O’s are on the verge of being respectable again. It’s hard to imagine a better trio of position players to build around than Wieters-Jones-Markakis, and with some good young arms on the way and an owner willing to spend money to compete, Baltimore could be very good as soon as 2010. Yes, the AL East is a killer, but tough competition can only hold back talent to a degree. Good teams win baseball games, and the Orioles are going to be a good team in the not too distant future.

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants
#18: Minnesota Twins

#17: Chicago White Sox

Ownership: B

Jerry Reinsdorf has a reputation for being a lot of things, but most of those are leftover from his more aggressive days in the 1990s. Of late, he’s settled into more of a bankroll position, handing the White Sox enough cash to be an upper echelon team in payroll over the last five years. While they built the worst of the new stadiums, it still generates a solid amount of revenue, and the White Sox shouldn’t have too many problems maintaining a high level of payroll for the foreseeable future.

Front Office: B-

What can you say about Kenny Williams. He gets into public feuds with his manager, former players, media members, scouts… let’s just say he’s a challenge to work with. And, early in his career as a GM, he did some really dumb things. But he’s grown, he’s adapted, and now he’s more like that obsessive fantasy league owner who won’t stop trading until he has a good team again. He stole Carlos Quentin from the D’Backs and John Danks from the Rangers. He built a bullpen out of waiver claims like Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton. He got bargains with veteran sluggers Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye (the first contract, not the second one). He’s always making moves to try and make the club better, and while he misses some, he’s shown a knack for snagging talent at the right time and putting together consistently good squads. Plus, he’s stayed somewhat sane while dealing with Ozzie Guillen on a daily basis, so he gets a few extra credit points.

Major League Talent: C+

Are they contending with an aging core (Thome, Dye, Konerko, Pierzynski, Contreras, Colon, even Buehrle to an extent) or rebuilding with a youth movement (Ramirez, Fields, Quentin, Danks, and Floyd)? Leave it to Kenny Williams to try both simultaneously. There’s some good young players in place, but the teams fortunes are still heavily tied to the aging stars of yesterday. On the positive side, most of those players are still contributors, and the White Sox should have enough firepower to keep up in the AL Central this year, providing they can fix their two gaping holes – center field and second base. With competent major league players in those spots, they’ll be a quality team this year, and the future salary obligations take a huge dive after the year ends, which should allow Williams to surround the young talent with some more productive high paid players.

Minor League Talent: C

Gordon Beckham’s move to second base gives him a quick path to the major leagues, and the offense is there for him to be an all-star caliber player at the keystone for years to come. Aaron Poreda is actually one of the more underrated arms in the minors, I think – his secondary stuff needs work, but his combination of velocity, sink, and command can get him through while his slider catches up to his fastball. After those two, it gets a little more tricky – Brandon Allen and Dayan Viciedo both offer intriguing power bats, but neither of them are much defensively, so where they fit into a future line-up is in question. Tyler Flowers was a nice pickup in the Javier Vazquez trade, and Jordan Danks and John Shelby provide some position player depth. It’s not a great system, but it’s not nearly as bad as most people think.

Overall: C+

Hard to believe that Jerry Reinsdorf is the strength of the organization, but there you go. The team has enough resources to consistently compete for high salaried players, and Kenny Williams has shown an aptitude for picking up enough good, cheap role players to surround his core and make consistent runs at playoff spots. The roster is in transition, but they should be able to avoid a total rebuild and win while reloading. They make some strange moves, but overall, the package mostly works. It could improved upon, but it’s not a bad time to be a White Sox fan.

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays
#19: San Francisco Giants

#18: Minnesota Twins

Ownership: C-

During the Pohlad era, the Twins have consistently been under-capitalized, especially considering the strength of the rosters being put together by the front office. Despite a player development system that churned out all-star after all-star, the team has acted like a second class citizen, running low-end payrolls and dealing off practically every meaningful player once they started making market value salaries. The ownership even went so far as to volunteer to contract the team despite the fact that the team has a solid history and a good fan base to draw from. The posturing was enough to finally get them a new stadium that will open next year, but given how the Pohlad family has operated in the past, we can’t be certain that new stadium revenues will actually be poured back into the franchise.

Front Office: B-

Under Terry Ryan, the Twins were a player development machine. They scouted well, drafted well, developed well, and created home grown stars that helped push them into contention despite questionable major league acquisitions and an old school philosophy that actively discouraged their players from hitting home runs. Ryan’s exit left a hole in the organization that Bill Smith has tried his best to fill, but so far, the few moves he has made have been somewhat questionable. While the structure that Ryan left in place should continue to allow them to be among the league’s best in scouting, the team continues to ignore the new understandings that other franchises have gained in the past ten years, and at some point, the Twins are either going to have to adapt or get left behind. They have their strengths, but they also have too many analytical weaknesses.

Major League Talent: B-

This might be the toughest roster in MLB to gauge. Joe Mauer is an MVP candidate, Justin Morneau is a minor star, and the team should get good contributions from the likes of Alexi Casilla, Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, and Joe Nathan. If Francisco Liriano can stay healthy, he’ll give the team a quality frontline pitcher in front of a bunch of strike throwers, which can depend on a solid defense to keep runs off the board. But for a team with so many pieces in place, you have to wonder why some holes didn’t get fixed. Nick Punto is miscast as a starting shortstop for a team with championship aspirations, and the team should have done better than sticking with Young/Cuddyer/Kubel to split LF/DH between. In addition, Mauer’s back problems could sink the entire season, and Mike Redmond isn’t a suitable fill-in. The roster has talent, but also too many unresolved issues that could have been fixed. If Mauer can’t play 120+ games in ’09, they’re in a lot of trouble.

Minor League Talent: C+

With Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks, the Twins have two of the toolsiest outfield prospects in the game – both fit the Minnesota model of a ballplayer, as they offer copious amounts of athleticism and should be solid enough hitters. They fit the defense first mindset, and while neither is particularly close to the majors, they both offer significant long term potential. There’s a huge valley between those two and the rest of the system, though. Shooter Hunt has too many control problems for a college tested first round pick. Wilson Ramos is a nice enough catching prospect with no real future in Minnesota. Kevin Mulvey looks like a #5 starter. It’s a collection of moderately interesting guys giving the organization a bit of depth, but the system breaks down as Revere, Hicks, and a lot of question marks.

Overall: C+

With a young core and a window for contention, the Twins are blowing a fairly large opportunity by not investing more in their product. With a larger budget and a few front office members that were more open to new ideas, they could build something pretty special. They have a championship core in place, but unfortunately, haven’t done enough to build a high level team around that core, and right now, it appears Joe Mauer’s prime is going to be wasted playing on some teams that could have been special but ended up fairly mediocre. It’s too bad, because he’s a great player, and he deserves better.

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals
#20: Toronto Blue Jays

#19: San Francisco Giants

Ownership: B

Other MLB owners might not be very happy with Peter Magowan, as he stands as the blueprint of how a privately financed stadium can work just fine. The Giants built a beautiful stadium without significant government subsidies, and the revenues generated by the park have allowed the team to sustain a championship level payroll over the last decade. Magowan stepped down as the managing partner in October, but the ownership group remains stable and the Giants should be well capitalized going forward.

Front Office: D

Brian Sabean’s history of transactions while running the Giants is a series of astounding moves. On one hand, he made one of the worst trades in recent history (Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser for A.J. Pierzynski), gave out the worst free agent contract ever (Barry Zito), has consistently overpaid for declining veterans (Matt Morris, Dave Roberts, and Aaron Rowand), and has overseen a roster that that hasn’t finished at .500 in four years. However, he’s also done a very good job of identifying veteran players who had some life left in the tank, and has gotten good value from signings that looked like mistakes (Bengie Molina, Randy Winn, Omar Vizquel) and has done a good job of developing and retaining some terrific young pitchers. Given his resources, though, he’s squandered too many good opportunities, and the Giants missed opportunities to win due his unwillingness to rebuild.

Major League Talent: C+

The Giants look to be gearing up to be this year’s Blue Jays, with a terrific pitching staff, a very good defense, and an extreme lack of major league hitters. Randy Winn and Fred Lewis are nice pieces, but when they are your best hitters, you better plan on winning a lot of 3-2 games. The Lincecum/Cain/Johnson/Sanchez/Zito rotation could easily be the best in baseball, however, and Sabean capitalized on the buyers market to rebuild a shaky bullpen and add a few stopgap veterans to make a run at a weak NL West. There are some good young talents here, but unfortunately, they’re almost all on the pitching staff, and building around young arms is a high risk strategy. If Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez all stay healthy, they could have a good run in store the next few years, but the odds of all three staying healthy and effective are not very good.

Minor League Talent: B+

If every team could only retain four minor leaguers every year, the Giants might have the best in the game. Their system is remarkably top heavy, with three of the best prospects in the game in Madison Bumgarner, Angel Villalona, and Buster Posey, and a nifty sidekick in Tim Alderson. These are premium talents, and could easily make up the core of the Giants future. But after those four, there’s quite the valley, and the rest of the system is rather pedestrian. The major league team is in need of good young hitters, so Posey and Villalona can’t get there fast enough – if they can find out a way to develop a few more quality position players, than this system could compete with the very best in baseball.

Overall: C+

The Giants have strong ownership, a fantastic ballpark in a high earning market, a major league team with legitimate playoff hopes, and a farm system that has several premium talents on the way to the Bay Area. With a less manic front office, they’d probably be one of the premier organizations in the game. The unpredictability of Sabean’s moves, along with the organizational plan of acquiring only 30+ players in free agency, has left them as an underachiever. But things are looking up in San Francisco, and as long as they can keep Lincecum’s arm attached to his body, they’ll have some hope.

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers
#21: St. Louis Cardinals

#20: Toronto Blue Jays

Ownership: C+

Being owned by a corporate conglomeration is generally not a great thing for a baseball team. While every team is run as a business, there is less incentive for the team to try to win at the expense of making money, and therefore, more emphasis is placed on profit and loss statements than on winning records. However, among corporate owners, Rogers is better than most – they’ve expanded team payroll significantly since taking over, and with a 2008 payroll of near $100 million, the Jays certainly had enough money to build a contender. Whether they will be allowed to sustain that level of payroll remains to be seen, however.

Front Office: C

J.P. Ricciardi does a lot of things well. He’s done a good job of identifying undervalued talent, has built up a terrific bullpen by acquiring players other teams didn’t want, has put an outstanding defensive team behind his pitching staff, and has built a team that is somewhat competitive in a ridiculously tough division. However, he also does a lot of things wrong; driving significant amounts of good talent out of his front office with his abrasive personality, being over-involved in draft day decisions, and publicly insulting random players for no particular reason. The team’s scouting department was dismantled when he took over, and it still hasn’t recovered. It doesn’t help that Tony LaCava is interviewing for every possible GM job that opens up, which will add to the brain drain in Toronto when his predictable departure comes to pass. At this point, it’s a legitimate question how much longer J.P. is going to be the guy calling the shots in Toronto.

Major League Talent: C+

For the last few years, the Jays have put a very good defense behind a very good pitching staff to make up for a weak offense, and it’s been somewhat successful. However, the Jays lost A.J. Burnett to free agency and both Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum are recovering from significant injuries, leaving their rotation as a land of question marks. Their deep, strong bullpen and still quality defense should allow them to cover for the loss of three good arms to a degree, but it’s going to be nearly impossible for them to have the lowest ERA in baseball again. To add to their 87 win total from last year, then, they’re going to have to score more often than they did last year, and it’s hard to see where that kind of boost is going to come from. In reality, this is a team that is going to have to fight the Orioles to stay out of last place, and that probably means they should be looking at getting young, but they have some onerous contracts on the books that won’t be easy to move and J.P. might not be willing to start a rebuilding project that would probably mean the end of his job.

Minor League Talent: B

The Jays have done a good job of drafting lately, snagging quality prospects such as Travis Snider, J.P. Arincibia, Brett Cecil, and David Cooper. Hitting on their first round picks with college players has given them a core of young players with some real upside who could be in Toronto sooner rather than later, and for a team that could use an infusion of talent, that’s a life saver. The dropoff after those four is fairly substantial, however, and while there’s some interesting players, the system isn’t deep enough to support a full scale rebuild, if that’s deemed necessary.

Overall: C+

From a micro perspective, there’s quite a bit of talent in the Toronto organization – high quality players such as Alex Rios and Roy Halladay, surrounded by good young role players such as Aaron Hill, and some useful veterans like Scott Rolen. However, from a macro perspective, the team has enough flaws to make them significant longshots to keep up with the New York/Boston/Tampa triumvirate in 2009, and another year of middling success might not save Ricciardi’s job. The Jays are in a tough division, but as the Rays have shown, a well run organization can overcome competition. The Jays don’t qualify as a well run organization right now.

Today, we keep looking at some teams that have legitimate hope, so it gets harder from here on out. And, for those of you who haven’t seen the previous parts (which are linked below), keep in mind that this is a forward looking exercise – we are evaluating clubs on their overall ability to contend for a World Series title in the future. We are not evaluating how they have performed historically. This is about the health of each organization going forward.

Rankings So Far

#30: Washington Nationals
#29: Florida Marlins
#28: Houston Astros
#27: Kansas City Royals
#26: Pittsburgh Pirates
#25: San Diego Padres
#24: Cincinnati Reds
#23: Colorado Rockies
#22: Detroit Tigers

#21: St. Louis Cardinals

Ownership: B-

Bill DeWitt Jr’s ownership of the Cardinals has been a success, as the team has been well capitalized and fairly well run during his tenure. There have been a few hiccups, however – former GM Walt Jocketty left after the front office suffered a split over the role of Jeff Luhnow and his team of statistical analysts. The team had a lengthy courtship with Indians assistant GM Chris Antonetti, who eventually spurned them to stay in Cleveland, and DeWitt ended up turning to in house candidate John Mozeliak to run the club. While there’s enough room in the budget for the team to contend, DeWitt could serve to be a bit less hands on as an owner – you don’t like to see good baseball men leave because of internal power struggles, and that DeWitt wasn’t able to figure out how to get Jocketty and Luhnow to work together is something of a black mark on his leadership. But, overall, he provides the team with the necessary resources to win and encourages them to do so, and ownership isn’t a significant weakness in St. Louis.

Front Office:: C

Mozeliak, as a new GM taking over a franchise already in position to win, was in something of a strange circumstance. He had to add a few pieces to help push the team over the top, which is not usually the task handed to a new GM hire. Overall, Mozeliak’s pick of which players to retain and add have been a bit less than inspiring. He did a good job of picking up Kyle Lohse on the cheap last spring, but then fell into the trap of signing him to a 4 year, $44 million contract to keep him from free agency. The Joel Pineiro extension was inexplicably bad. The Adam Kennedy situation was mishandled, and the organization continues to let Tony LaRussa’s personal issues with players interfere with their roster management decisions. With Albert Pujols in his prime, the Cardinals should be focused on trying to win rings while they have the best player in baseball, but they made barely a wimper in the best buyer’s market we’ve seen in years. There are some good things going on in St. Louis’ front office, but Mozeliak has to show more as a GM if these team is going to be a perpetual contender.

Major League Talent: B-

This rank is almost all Pujols. He’s amazing, and the single reason the Cardinals are contenders. Without him, they’d be in a lot of trouble. Yes, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Troy Glaus, Yadier Molina, and Adam Wainwright are quality players, but there’s expected regression, a couple of expiring contracts, and injury concerns with the second tier talents in the organization. The team has too many outfielders but a big question mark at second base, and the starting rotation is both injury prone and thin. There’s some good young arms in the bullpen, but the manager doesn’t like arms. Overall, it’s a collection of players that are held together by the hall of fame first baseman, but could stand to be significantly better. Especially for a team that should be trying to win the whole thing.

Minor League Talent: B

Colby Rasmus is one of the best prospects in the game, and he should be ready to help the team in 2009, if they can find room for him in an already crowded outfield. Brett Wallace is a big bat, but his defense at third is up for question, and a team with Pujols on the roster won’t consider moving him to first, so he’s going to have to stick at the hot corner. The top pitching prospect is a reliever, and while he’s a good relief prospect, that’s still not an ideal situation. However, the club does have some depth with guys like Daryl Jones and David Freese, so the dropoff after the top couple of guys isn’t as severe as it is with a few other clubs we’ve looked at.

Overall: C+

The Cardinals are an interesting organization. On one hand, they do a lot of stuff pretty well, they have the best player in baseball, they have some good young talent, and a manager with a long track record of winning baseball games. On the other hand, they simply haven’t put enough good players around Pujols in order to be a favorite to contend, the manager keeps running players out of town, the talent in the organization isn’t evenly distributed across positions, the team keeps giving too much money to mediocre pitchers, and they had to reshuffle their front office after a power struggle led to the GM leaving. Talk about a mixed bag. St. Louis needs to be maximizing their world series chances while Pujols is around, and for not being aggressive enough to do so, they’ve ended up in a spot where they are neither a top team now nor in the future. They’re going to have to commit to a direction pretty soon, or they’ll flounder as a good but not great organization that rarely plays in October.