Last night, Eric detailed the virtues of Max Scherzer and laid out the case for why he should be a member of the D’backs rotation. This morning, I’ll expand on that a bit, using a graph of the Pitch F/x data from his Sunday start to look at what he was throwing at the Dodgers.

The first thing to notice is that there are way more little dots above the 95 line than there are below. He was throwing some serious cheese on Sunday. His average fastball was 96.1 MPH, and he sustained it for 94 pitches. His last fastball of the night clocked in at 97.1 – not exactly the telltale sign of a guy who was fatigued.

Scherzer wasn’t exactly interested in changing speeds, either. As Eric noted, he throws the fastball a lot, and Sunday was no exception. 63 of the 92 pitches that Pitch F/x registered were fastballs – Scherzer’s modus operendi is apparently “hit it if you can”, because he’s not messing around with secondary pitches all that often.

That isn’t to say those pitches aren’t any good, however. Scherzer got 21 swinging strikes in the game on Sunday, but 9 of them came on either his slider or his change-up. Considering he only threw 29 offspeed pitches (if you can call an 88 MPH slider an offspeed pitch), getting 9 swinging strikes is fantastic. He loves his fastball, and rightfully so, but the slider and change both have their uses. The slider, especially, can be a knockout pitch against right-handed hitters.

The key to Scherzer sticking in the rotation will be the development of that change-up. Like most RH pitchers with terrific fastball/slider combinations, he’s already death to right-handed hitters – they’re hitting just .160/.261/.222 against him this year. However, those pitches aren’t nearly as effective against left-handed hitters, and the numbers bare that out – LH hitters are hitting .322/.406/.424 against Scherzer.

On Sunday, Scherzer only threw 4 change-ups in the 39 pitches he threw LH hitters. He clearly doesn’t trust it yet, but if he’s going to stay in the rotation, he’s going to have to have at least a serviceable change that he can mix in against lefties. Otherwise, you’ll just see teams stacking the line-up with LH bats and getting a pretty huge platoon advantage.

His audition for the rotation went very well, but he showed both the reason why Arizona should be both thrilled about his abilities but also aware of his current limitations.

Despite the Indians poor season, I believe there’s a pretty decent case to be made that Grady Sizemore has been the best player in the American League this year. He’s already gone 30-30 while playing a nifty center field, and his 3.09 WPA/LI is the best in the AL for an up-the-middle player. Ask pretty much anyone who the best CF in the AL is, and they’ll tell you it’s Sizemore.

They might not be right, however. I think, at some point, we have to consider whether Curtis Granderson might be the superior ballplayer right now (though the time he spent on the DL hurts his MVP chances). He doesn’t get the notoriety that Sizemore does, but he’s been an elite player for two years now. Here are some comparative graphs.

Sizemore was much better in 2006, but the last two years, Granderson has been as good or arguably better. He’s compiled 5.84 WPA/LI over 1,088 at-bats while Sizemore has racked up 5.31 WPA/LI over 1,176 at-bats. Despite playing a bit less, Granderson’s been more valuable offensively even on a counting stat basis. On a per at-bat basis, it hasn’t even been close.

We can’t ignore 2006, however. It happened, and it still matters. The up-to-date Marcel projections, which include the last three years of data, have Sizemore’s true talent level as at .284/.380/.503 and Granderson at .294/.372/.493. Very close, but a slight edge to Sizemore, thanks to the difference between their 2006 performances.

Both are considered to be quality defensive center fielders, and both have posted strong defensive numbers over the years. Granderson’s running a -10 in the Fielding Bible’s +/- system this year, but he was +20 last year and +12 the year before, so that’s probably just an outlier. Scouts love his defense, and until this year, the numbers had agreed. There’s no reason to believe that he’s suddenly turned into a problem with the glove.

So, if they’re basically equal offensively in true talent level, with Granderson being better the last two years, and there’s no compelling evidence to believe that Sizemore is superior defensively, how can we justify the belief that Sizemore is clearly the best CF in the AL?

I’m not saying Granderson’s definitely better, but I do think there’s a real argument to be made that he’s every bit as good as his more famous peer down in Cleveland.

Back in May, we noticed that Nelson Cruz was blistering the baseball in the PCL and deserved another shot in the major leagues. The Rangers didn’t have any problems scoring runs, though, so Cruz stayed in Triple-A for most of the season, only finally getting back to Texas on August 25th.

He’s doing his best to show the world that he really should have been up months ago. In 46 at-bats since his return, Cruz is hitting .326/.404/.609, showing that his monstrous performance in Oklahoma wasn’t a fluke. He’s always been able to hit a fastball a long way, but with his more selective approach at the plate, Cruz is a bonafide major league hitter.

Despite the solid performances from Marlon Byrd, David Murphy, and Brandon Boggs, not to mention that Hamilton kid, the Rangers need to find room for Cruz in their line-up. Yes, Texas’ offense is already awesome, but sometimes the easiest way to improve a ballclub is not to address the glaring weakness – there’s not a cap on runs scored, and having Cruz’s bat in the line-up will help make up for the fact that they still can’t pitch and his teammates can’t field.

It looks like Cruz is going to play pretty much everyday the rest of the year, and hopefully, Texas will realize that their best line-up going forward has Nelson Cruz in it everyday.

Tonight, the most important series of the 2008 season kicks off – the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Arizona Diamondbacks for a weekend set that will go a long way in determining who will win the NL West. With just 1.5 half games separating the two, the Diamondbacks lead certainly isn’t safe, and a series win would be huge for both clubs.

Now, generally, a September matchup of two teams fighting for one playoff spot is exciting enough, but this series provides a little extra boost – just take a look at these pitching matchups.

Friday night: Dan Haren (2.98 FIP) vs Lowe (3.34 FIP)
Saturday afternoon: Brandon Webb (3.18 FIP) vs Chad Billingsley (3.13 FIP)
Sunday afternoon: Randy Johnson (3.84 FIp) vs Clayton Kershaw (4.24 FIP)

In the opener, the guy with the second lowest FIP in the NL goes up against the guy with the sixth lowest FIP. Haren and Lowe both have excellent command, while Haren misses a few more bats and Lowe gets a few more groundballs. Both are legitimate frontline starting pitchers – there’s no real advantage for either club.

Game two features Cy Young winner Webb against Billingsley, one of the game’s emerging aces. Webb pitches to contact and throws more strikes, but Billingsley’s stuff is a bit more electric and allows him to be among the league leaders in strikeouts. Webb’s last few starts haven’t been good, however, and there’s questions about how healthy his arm is – due to that question mark, the Dodgers might have a slight advantage in game two.

The rubber match on Sunday is a classic “passing of the torch” type of ballgame, as the best left-handed pitcher of our generation faces off with one of the best young southpaws we’ve seen in a long time. The Big Unit is still going strong, even though he turns 45 next week, while Kershaw is beginning to find the form that made scouts so excited about his future in the minors. Johnson’s not the flamethrower he was, so Kershaw will be the one lighting up radar guns on Sunday, but the difference in command makes Johnson a better pitcher right now. Kershaw’s certainly got the talent to throw a gem, however, so even if Arizona has an edge, the Dodgers can certainly steal the going away game.

If Arizona can pull of a sweep, they’ll probably nail the coffin shut. However, with the arms that the Dodgers are sending to the hill, D’Backs fans shouldn’t be counting on picking up three wins this weekend. A 2-1 series win for one of the two teams is the most likely outcome. Arizona would put themselves in a strong position to win the division if they take the series, but LA can make it a coin-toss if they can pick up two wins.

No matter who you’re a fan of, this should be highly entertaining baseball this weekend.

With the Indians falling out of the race early and trading Sabathia during the summer, there hasn’t been much focus on Cleveland during the second half of the season. Even when they won 10 games in a row, the general response across baseball was to yawn. So, it’s not that surprising that one of the hottest hitters in the American League is tearing the cover off the ball at Jacobs Field and no one is noticing.

What Shin-Soo Choo has done the last month deserves attention, though. He leads all major leaguers in WPA (2.21) over the last 30 days, thanks to a .376/.459/.706 showing over his last 85 at-bats. He’s racked up 17 extra base hits and 10 walks in the time frame, so it’s just a singles driven hot streak. Even his non-leveraged WPA/LI of 1.48 is among the best in the league. Choo’s just killing the ball right now.

Choo missed the first couple months of 2008 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and his inability to stay healthy on a consistent basis left him on the fringes of Cleveland’s outfield plans for the future. This performance, though, has thrust him right back into the spotlight, and barring another injury, you have to imagine he’ll go into 2009 with an inside track on a starting job in the Cleveland OF. Just 25 years of age, he’s showing both the patience and power that teased scouts when he was coming through the Mariners system. His strikeout rate remains high and he still can’t hit left-handed pitching, but he does enough other things to compensate for those flaws, even if he’s not quite this good.

His up-to-date Marcel projection has him as a .266/.355/.440 hitter going forward, though Marcel doesn’t know anything about his minor league career, and would likely be a bit more optimistic if it did. Even if he doesn’t take any more steps forward, an .800 OPS from a left-handed hitting corner OF is nothing to sneeze at, and there’s obviously room for a bit more growth over the next couple of years.

Meanwhile, Ben Broussard is basically out of baseball. I’d say that trade worked out fairly well for Cleveland.

On November 14, 2006, ESPN printed the following headline:

“DeRosa cashes in on career year, to sign with Cubs.”

The reaction from Cubs fans was about the same – the team had just signed a player that didn’t become a regular until age 31 and had his first real effective season in the hitters paradise of Texas, and they’d signed him to a three year deal to boot. It seemed like something of an overpay for a guy best suited to a super-sub role. His first year in Chicago went pretty well, though, with Mark DeRosa basically being a league average hitter and solid enough defender at second base. The Cubs, however, weren’t impressed enough, and went on an offseason quest to acquire Brian Roberts from the Orioles, offering three and four player packages to try to get the O’s second baseman to the Windy City.

In retrospect, the contract was apparently a stroke of genius and they should thank their lucky stars that they failed to land Roberts, because DeRosa’s been a revelation for the Cubs this year, and should get some down ballot MVP votes.

He’s hitting .292/.384/.490, good for a 2.10 WPA/LI – only Chase Utley has a better mark among NL second baseman. He’s been better offensively than bigger name teammates, such as Derrek Lee or Geovany Soto. Among NL players with a higher WPA/LI mark than DeRosa’s, only Carlos Beltran, Hanley Ramirez, and Utley play up the middle positions. That’s not a bad crowd to run with.

At 33, DeRosa’s having a year so far better than anything else he’s ever done, it’s remarkable. His “career year” of 2006 totaled a whopping -0.23 WPA/LI, and he’d accumulated -1.95 WPA/LI in his career through 2007. He’d been a below average hitter for basically his entire career, and heading into his age 33 season, there was no reason to expect a breakout like this. His preseason Marcel projection had him hitting .279/.354/.426, and it was one of the most optimistic projections for him out there. He’s blowing that line out of the water.

Mocked at the time it was signed, DeRosa’s contract is now one of baseball’s best values for 2008 – $4.75 million for a guy playing at an all-star level at an up the middle position. That signing, and the non-trade for Roberts, really couldn’t have worked out any better.

Ever since “Bull Durham“, people have had a mental picture of the pitcher with a million dollar arm but not the results to match. If you throw hard but don’t command the strike zone, you’ll inevitably hear the words Nuke LaLoosh tossed around. Perhaps no pitcher the last few years has personified that great arm/bad results combination more than Dustin Nippert.

In short stints over the last four years, Nippert has racked up 119 innings of major league experience, and he has not been good at all. His career FIP of 5.29 is lousy (although quite a bit better than his 6.88 career ERA) and he’s ran up a -1.28 WPA/LI in his combined work that totals half a season. His performance makes him a replacement level pitcher, and he’s earned it, mixing in lots of walks and home runs with only a slightly above average strikeout rate.

However, it’s not enough to just look at Nippert’s results and conclude that he’s terrible, because Nippert has legitimately terrific stuff. His average fastball sits at 93.8 MPH, which puts him just ahead of CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, and Edinson Volquez among starting pitchers. Clearly, his fastball has enough get-up on it to get major league hitters out. He also has a power change-up (84.1 MPH) and a slower curve (77.5) MPH that give him two off-speed pitches and enough weapons to attack hitters from both sides of the plate.

Overall, the package of stuff seems good enough on paper for Nippert to turn into a quality pitcher. The big problem for him, so far, has been command – his 4.69 BB/9 rate is terrible, and when you’re pitching from behind in the count all the time, you’re simply not going to have much success getting people out. Nippert also appears to lean a bit too heavily on his fastball, as 70% of his pitches as a major leaguer have been the straight heater. As a four-seam guy who isn’t inducing weak grounders with his fastball, he simply can’t afford to be using his fastball that frequently.

With better command and a better approach to pitching, Nippert could still have a decent career ahead of hismelf. He shows flashes of potential, like his seven shutout innings against Seattle this afternoon, but it will take more than an occasional quality performance to shake the LaLoosh comparisons for good.

Last winter, two starting pitchers signed multiyear contracts as free agents – Hiroki Kuroda (3 years, $36 million) and Carlos Silva (4 years, $48 million, $#%!). It appeared to be a combination of a really bad year for free agent pitchers and teams learning about the risk of pitcher attrition and how badly long term contracts for free agent pitchers can go. The recent busts of guys like Barry Zito and Jason Schmidt hung like a cloud, suppressing big money deals for starting pitchers.

This winter will be different. This is almost certainly going to be the greatest collection of free agent arms to hit free agency at the same time in the history of the game. The quality and quantity of arms available this winter is staggering – here are the guys who, in my estimation, have some chance of getting either a multiyear deal or a one year contract for a significant chunk of cash.

CC Sabathia, 2.98 FIP, 4.05 WPA/LI
Ben Sheets, 3.20 FIP, 2.18 WPA/LI
Derek Lowe, 3.33 FIP, 2.33, WPA/LI
Ryan Dempster, 3.38 FIP, 2.91, WPA/LI
Mike Mussina, 3.44 FIP, 1.62 WPA/LI
AJ Burnett, 3.65 FIP, 0.00 WPA/LI (can opt out of current contract)
Andy Pettitte, 3.78 FIP, 0.99 WPA/LI
Randy Johnson, 3.83 FIP, 0.23 WPA/LI
Kyle Lohse, 3.90 FIP, 1.54 WPA/LI
Greg Maddux, 4.03 FIP, 0.70 WPA/LI
Jamie Moyer, 4.29 FIP, 0.63 WPA/LI
Randy Wolf, 4.32 FIP, -0.43 WPA/LI
Oliver Perez, 4.74 FIP, 0.37 WPA/LI
Braden Looper, 4.89 FIP, -0.44 WPA/LI
Jon Garland, 4.91 FIP, -0.72, WPA/LI
Pedro Martinez, 5.40 FIP, -0.62 WPA/LI

There’s literally something for everyone. You want to throw huge money at a franchise savior? Sabathia is the jewel, but there’s always the luring upside of Sheets and Burnett that will tempt shoppers looking for an all-star in his prime. Want a solid middle of the rotation arm who never gets hurt? Look at Lowe, but lean on Dempster and maybe even Lohse as a fall back plan. Want a hall of famer with something left in the tank? There’s Johnson, Maddux, Mussina, and even Pedro, whose velocity is back to 2005 levels and whose main problem has been an absurdly high HR/FB% that could easily regress to the mean next year. Or do you want a lefty who misses bats? You can try to get Pettitte to leave NY, but if you lose out, you could turn to Perez and Wolf. Or maybe you just want to give a lot of money to a guy who isn’t that good but your fans won’t know that until its too late – you’ve got options with both Garland and Looper. And I didn’t even manage to pigeonhole Moyer into any specific category.

The supply of quality pitching on the free agent market has never been higher, but don’t expect to see prices dropping just because there are lots of choices this winter. All this quality pitching becoming available also means that there is a lot of payroll commitments expiring at the end of the season – the 16 pitchers above made about $148 million in 2008, so even without any inflation, there’s $9.25 million per pitcher available to that group. Toss in the fact that teams are still making significant amounts of money through new revenues, and I think we should expect that these 16 guys will sign for a total of at least $200 million for 2009, not even counting the value of the long term contracts that the top names will get.

With so many pitchers available, one thing is certain – this will be one of the most fun hot stove seasons we’ve ever seen.

The Dodgers spent a good bit of money on Hiroki Kuroda to bolster their rotation this winter, and overall, he’s pitched pretty well. His 3.64 FIP over 156 innings has resulted in a 1.36 WPA/LI, meaning he’s been nearly a win and a half better than an average pitcher. That’s pretty valuable, and the Dodgers couldn’t have hoped for much more when they signed him.

However, on a day to day basis, it’s been nearly impossible to predict what Kuroda will give you. He’s taken inconsistency to a whole new level. Take a look at this histogram of his starts by game score, showing the frequency of each type of start he’s had this year (using intervals of five).

Kuroda’s average game score for the season is 52 (a bit above average, as GS is set to be average at 50), but as you can see, the distribution is nothing like a bell curve. It’s more of a shipping barge. Or maybe a Dodger Dog with some weird toppings. The reason for that, of course, is that Kuroda has been sometimes miserable (three starts below 20) and sometimes awesome (one start at 90 and one at 91), and then just about every interval in between. He’s been horrible. He’s been bad. He’s been mediocre. He’s been okay. He’s been solid. He’s been good. He’s been excellent. He’s been great.

What he has not been is consistent. In total, the package has been quite valuable, but in isolation, you really have no idea what you’re going to get from Kuroda when he takes the mound. You want him on your team, but if the Dodgers do end up making the playoffs, I’m sure a few fans in LA are going to be holding their breaths when he takes the mound. He hasn’t exactly inspired a confidant expectation of results so far.

Stephen Drew and Adrian Beltre are pretty similar players. Both are fairly aggressive hitters (Beltre has a career 0.44 BB/K rate, while Drew is at 0.46) with some power (heading into Monday, Beltre’s ISO this year is .186, while Drew’s is .180). Drew plays SS like a 3B while Beltre plays 3B like an SS. They’re not clones, but as far as baseball players go, they aren’t that different.

So, it’s fitting that on the day when Drew became the third player in Diamondbacks history to hit for the cycle, Beltre would follow a few hours later by becoming the fourth player in Mariner history to accomplish the same feat. Both even racked up five hits, though Drew had a pair of doubles while Beltre doubled up on the single.

So, which cycle helped their team more?

Drew racked up .396 worth of WPA, led by his first double of the night. In the seventh inning of a tie game and a runner on, his two base hit set the stage for the D’Backs to take the lead – the leverage index for that play was 2.30, so he gets a nice clutch bonus for coming through when the team certainly needed a run.

Beltre accumulated .387 WPA, and because he just wants to be like Stephen, he also doubled with a runner on first in a tie game in the 7th inning. The score was even identical in both games (6-6), and just like Arizona, the Mariners went on to take the lead on an ensuing single.

It was only the second time in baseball history that two players have ever hit for the cycle on the same day. It hadn’t happened in 88 years, and it will probably be 88 years before we ever see it again. The fact that the two players had such similar games, and are such similar players, just makes it all the more interesting.