For basically the entire season, the dregs of Major League Baseball have been the Washington Nationals, the San Diego Padres, and the Seattle Mariners. These three teams have been losing consistently since April, falling out of contention early and locking up spots in the cellar by mid-summer. All three have been nearly equally inept as well, engaging in a chase of sorts for the first overall selection in next year’s draft, widely referred to as the Strasburg Sweepstakes, named after the University of San Diego right-hander of the same name who is the early leader to go number one next summer.

However, over the last week, something strange has happened – all three teams have caught fire and attempted to exit the race for worst.

Last Monday, the Padres welcomed the first place Diamondbacks and promptly swept them, winning 4-2, 9-2, and 5-4. Colorado came into town for a weekend series and won the first game on Friday night 9-4, but then lost by the same score on Saturday and fell 2-1 yesterday. Over the last week, the Padres have won five of their six contests, only the third time this season they’ve pulled that off.

Not to be outdone, the Mariners managed to take two of three from the first place Twins in Seattle to start the week, then flew to Cleveland and swept the red hot Indians, who had won 10 games in a row. When combined with a series win against the A’s before Minnesota came to town, the Mariners have now won seven of their last nine games.

And finally, the Nationals, the clear favorite to finish with baseball’s worst record, and the most consistently horrible team in baseball this year. At least, until last week. On Tuesday, the Dodgers rolled into the nations capitol fighting for their playoff lives and left without a win. Atlanta came in for a weekend series and didn’t fare any better, as Washington’s putrid offense exploded for 24 runs in the three game series. When combined with the 11 run surge in the finale against LA, Washington has now racked up 35 runs in their last four games – they scored 26 runs during a 12 game losing steak just a few weeks ago.

Combined, the terrible trio is 16-2 in their last 18 games. Apparently, the only team that wants Strasburg is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have now lost 10 in a row in a desperate attempt to get into the mix. Of course, with Scott Boras expected to advise Strasburg, they might not want the #1 pick either.

When the Reds traded away both Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Junior, they needed an outfielder to finish out the season. With studly young prospect Jay Bruce already in the majors, there weren’t any more future stars to take a look at, so they turned to organizational solider Chris Dickerson. The 26-year-old was having a relatively successful season down in Louisville, maintaining his average-across-the-board skillset.

He walked some, but struck out a decent amount too. He had gap power, but not long ball power. He stole some bases, but wasn’t a speed burner. He had the glove of a corner OF, but not the bat of one. And, 2008 was really the first year he’d ever hit well for a sustained period of time. In ’06, he hit .242/.349/.424 as a 24-year-old in Double-A – not exactly showing the makings of a real major league hitter. He improved in Triple-A each of the last two yeras, but still looked more like a career minor leaguer than anything else.

However, when he got to Cincinnati, he decided to mash. After going 3-5 with a double and a home run last night, he’s now hitting .328/.406/.672 in his first 69 major league plate appearances. His walk and strikeout rates are about what we’d have expected, but the power is completely unexpected. 12 of his first 20 hits have gone for extra bases, including four home runs. His ISO of .344 is almost double the .193 mark he was putting up in Louisville.

Now, clearly, Dickerson isn’t this good. That’s not very insightful, however, as simply saying a guy making his ML debut at 26 isn’t the best player in baseball isn’t news to anyone. How good is he?

A quick MLE adjusting his ’08 performance in Louisville to the majors would come out to about .250/.340/.430. Of course, 2008 was his best minor league performance, and so would adjust that down a bit to account for his mediocre previous years. However, his major league at-bats count as well, and obviously serve to make the projection a bit more optimistic.

Overall, I’d say that the above line is about right. He strikes out too much to hit for any kind of average, but he’ll offset it with a solid walk rate and some power. Realistically, a .780 OPS from a guy with a decent glove in the outfield is a pretty nifty role player for a contender and a guy who could start for a lot of bad teams.

Dickerson’s one of the hundreds of guys in the minor leagues who are living, breathing indications of freely available talent – a 16th round pick with a nondescript minor league career who makes some improvements and finds himself as a useful major league player at the age of 26. He didn’t cost anything for the Reds to acquire or develop, and now they’ve got a guy who can fill a hole adequately for several years.

Welcome to the bigs, Chris Dickerson. Looks like we’ll be getting to see you stick around for a while.

August has seen a lot of good pitching performances – Tim Lincecum has a 1.96 FIP, CC Sabathia has an 8.00 K/BB rate, and Ryan Dempster hasn’t alllowed a single home run all month. All these guys are carrying their pitching staffs and performing extremely well.

However, it’s hard to argue that anyone has been as good as Ricky Nolasco this month, especially in terms of dominating the strike zone. In five August starts spanning 37 innings, he has walked 3 batters and struck out 43. That’s a 14.33 K/BB rate, making Sabathia look like a relative scrub. Striking out more than a batter per inning is impressive – doing it while walking one batter every 12 innings is ridiculous.

He has double digit strikeouts in three of his five August starts, and in the two starts he didn’t rack up the strikeouts, he instead induced a ton of groundballs; 15 against the Mets and 12 against the Cardinals. In fact, Nolasco has flashed the tremendous ability of being able to rack up both strikeouts and groundballs, putting up a 10.46 K/9 and a 51.6% GB% in August.

With very few exceptions, pitchers who can rack up both a lot of strikeouts and a lot of groundballs are among the very best pitchers in baseball. In 2008, two pitchers have sustained season long strikeout rates of at least 8.00 K/9 and a 50% GB% or higher – Chad Billingsley and Edinson Volquez. Roy Halladay just misses the strikeout criteria. Those guys are all having All-Star seasons, and Volquez is doing it with lousy command.

Granted, it’s only a month, so Nolasco’s performance doesn’t carry nearly as much weight, but there aren’t many pitchers in baseball that have the ability to run a a strikeout rate over 10.00 and a GB% over 50% for any length of time. That Nolasco was able to do both while simultaneously not walking anyone is pretty remarkable.

He did give up 5 home runs during August, which is why his FIP (and ERA) are higher than some of the other good August pitching runs we’ve seen, but the high concentration of no contact/weak contact still makes this one of the most impressive five start stretches we’ve seen so far this year.

Nolasco isn’t a household name yet, but he can’t pitch like this for much longer and remain any kind of secret.

When the Dodgers acquired Manny Ramirez, it was commonly accepted that adding a middle of the order slugger to their offense would help improve their run scoring and allow them to make a push for the NL West down the stretch. For the first couple of weeks after the trade, it worked out great – Ramirez hit .424 with a ton of power, the team scored 77 runs in 16 games, and they went 10-6 in those contests to catch the Diamondbacks for first place.

Things have not gone so well since then, however. Ramirez’s home run last night was his first in the last 10 games, during which time the Dodgers have gone 1-9. And it isn’t just Manny’s offense that has gone south – the team has scored just 21 runs in those ten games, and never more than four in a single game. It’s hard to win when you’re averaging just over two runs a game. Even a series against baseball’s worst team, the Washington Nationals, turned into a debacle, as they got swept by a team that probably wouldn’t have medaled in the Olympics.

It’s not just Manny, either. Besides James Loney, who has gone bananas the last week (.464/.483/.786), the hitters just haven’t generated any kind of threat. Nomar is 2 for his last 24 with no walks or extra base hits. Jeff Kent is 5 for his last 30, and like Nomar, hasn’t done anything besides collect a few singles. Russell Martin and Matt Kemp have badly as well.

This losing skid has dropped the Dodgers to 65-69, and they now sit 3.5 games behind the Diamondbacks, even though Arizona has lost four games in a row themselves. In a division of mediocrity, the Dodgers are out-losing the Snakes, and they have an offense that has gone into a coma to thank for it. Perhaps all the talk about the mental boost teams get from making that big trade deadline acquisition is just that – talk – after all.

Quick, name the catcher with the most home runs in the American League.

No, not him. Not him either. Give up?

Try Kelly Shoppach. Yea, I know, Kelly Shoppach. Last night he hit his 17th home run of the season, and if the Indians were looking for excuses for why their season hasn’t gone as expected, they can’t blame the injury to Victor Martinez, as Shoppach is filling his shoes quite nicely.

His home run last night was his 38th extra base hit, using his power to compensate for his strikeout rate that drives down his batting average. Shoppach actually has more XBH than singles (36), and his ISO of .250 puts him in the company of the more famous slugging backstops such as Brian McCann and Geovany Soto.

At 28, Shoppach is something of a late bloomer, but the ability to drive the ball makes up for the rest of his flaws. His command of the strike zone is pretty miserable (he makes contact like Jack Cust and walks like Robinson Cano), but when he makes contact, he makes it count – his batting average on contact is .399.

So, what do the Indians do next year when Martinez returns? It’s pretty clear that Shoppach is good enough to play regularly, but neither he nor Martinez would be nearly as valuable playing first base as they are behind the plate. The Indians might be best off shopping one of the two this winter, because while having two good catchers is a nice problem to have, it’s still a problem.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have two Cy Young contenders in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, the two front-of-the-rotation horses that are trying to carry them to the playoffs despite an offense that has struggled to score runs after a hot start. While the excellence of the top two has gotten plenty of notice, don’t look now, but after a rough first half, Randy Johnson is reminding everyone that he’s still pretty good himself.

First 17 Starts: 98 IP, 2.57 BB/9, 8.72 K/9, 1.37 HR/9, 5.26 ERA
Last 7 Starts: 47 1/3 IP, 1.14 BB/9, 8.37 K/9, 0.57 HR/9, 1.52 ERA

By cutting his home run rate and walk rates in half while sustaining a strikeout rate of nearly a batter per inning, Johnson’s overcome his early season struggles (which were exacerbated by some bad luck) and returned to previous levels of dominance. Despite no longer throwing 100 MPH, he’s still blowing people away, and gives the Diamondbacks perhaps the best #3 starter in all of baseball.

In fact, it’s hard to argue that there’s a better pitching trio anywhere on earth than Webb-Haren-Johnson. Even with the problems Arizona’s had with their offense and bullpen, I certainly wouldn’t want to play this team in a playoff series. The starting pitching is that scary.

Keep in mind, too, that Randy Johnson turns 45 years old in a couple of weeks. The list of pitchers who have succeeded at this age is pretty short, and the fact that Johnson’s still going strong on his way to 50 is pretty remarkable. He really is one of the greatest pitchers of all time, and we should all be thankful we’ve had a chance to watch him pitch.

There’s no doubt about the fact that CC Sabathia is the prize of the free agent pitching crop this winter. With his dominance since moving to the Brewers, and that Cy Young award he picked up last year, Sabathia is at the top of nearly every teams list, with the question simply being who will pony up the most to secure his services.

The 29 teams who don’t sign Sabathia, however, will have to decide who the next best guy is. Right now, the general consensus seems to be his Milwaukee teammate Ben Sheets. The talent for Sheets has never been in question, and with his 2008 season being his healthiest in four years, he looks poised to cash in as Plan B for the teams who can’t get Sabathia. However, I’d like to suggest that perhaps there’s a better second option for the teams who don’t go after CC, and that man is Derek Lowe.

After a complete game gem last night that the Dodgers still managed to lose, Lowe’s brilliance this year continued to go under the radar. It’s time to shine the light on him and make sure people realize just how good he’s been this year.

At 35 years old, Lowe isn’t aging – he might be getting better. His 1.96 BB/9 is the best of his career. His 6.50 K/9 sustains the gains he made in missing bats last year, the two highest strikeout rates he’s posted as a full time starting pitcher. His improving dominance of the strike zone hasn’t shown up in his home run rate, either – his 0.7 HR/9 is right in line with his career averages.

A 3.00 K/BB rate and a 60% GB% are a powerful combination, and it shouldn’t be surprising that Lowe’s posting the best FIP of his career as a starting pitcher. His WPA/LI is higher than that of Sheets’, and he doesn’t come up with any of the same injury concerns. Yes, he’s 35, but if you can find any signs of decline, you’ve got better eyes than I do.

Derek Lowe is a legitimate frontline starting pitcher, and for a team looking for an impact arm this winter, they shouldn’t overlook the groundball machine hanging out in LA. He’s going to get a big paycheck, but there’s also a good chance that it won’t be as big as it should be.

The story of the 2008 season is obviously the success of Tampa Bay, though skeptics remain, with most prediction markets expecting the Rays to bow out early in the playoffs despite their sustained success. Among mainstream media analysis, a common critique of the Rays is that their bullpen isn’t full of guys with long track records of success, and with Troy Percival’s health in question, the idea of a contender mixing and matching at the end of games scares them.

However, I have to wonder if these analysts have noticed just how good Tampa’s bullpen really is. In fact, you could argue that among the likely AL playoff teams, the Rays bullpen is the best of the bunch. Look at their relief core:

Closer: Troy Percival – 4.15 BB/9, 8.31 K/9, 5.03 FIP, 0.77 WPA/LI
RH Setup: Dan Wheeler – 2.53 BB/9, 6.59 K/9, 4.15 FIP, 1.06 WPA/LI
LH Setup: J.P. Howell – 4.22 BB/9, 9.21 K/9, 3.49 FIP, 1.15 WPA/LI
Middle: Grant Balfour – 4.19 BB/9, 12.98 K/9, 1.89 FIP, 1.58 WPA/LI
LOOGY: Trever Miller – 5.23 BB/9, 8.27 K/9, 3.57 FIP, 0.25 WPA/LI
ROOGY: Chad Bradford – 2.28 BB/9, 3.23 K/9, 3.73 FIP, 0.78 WPA/LI

The Rays have decided that they’re willing to sacrifice command for dominance, creating a bullpen of guys who miss both the strike zone and bats with regularity, and succeed by keeping the ball in the park. They’ve also done a great job of giving Joe Maddon options at the end of ballgames, as he has lots of weapons depending on what he needs in a given at bat.

Bradford and Miller are same-handed specialists, perfect for neutralizing premium hitters in high leverage situations. Bradford’s extreme groundball nature also makes him the obvious pick for when a double play is necessary or there’s a runner at third with less than two out and you don’t want to give up the sac fly.

Balfour is the pleasant surprise, dominating the middle and late innings and racking up the strikeouts – he’s effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and can get you throw a middle of the order, even if it’s loaded with left and right handed bats. Howell is like Balfour from the left side, just with a few less strikeouts – his unique repertoire out of the pen also allows him to pitch multiple innings and not have to be used as a specialist.

Wheeler and Percival are the grizzled veterans, the experienced guys who Maddon can lean on while avoiding a controversy about going to unproven players in high leverage situations. While Percival’s FIP isn’t good, thanks to his extremely poor home run rate, he’s actually a pretty good candidate to get the cheap saves when the team leads by more than one, due to his extreme flyball nature. Because he’s constantly giving up flyballs, his balls in play are more likely to become outs, and if one happens to leave the yard without anyone on base, it’s not a big problem. He’s not a great closer, but he’s better than his FIP would indicate.

Forget what the talking heads tell you – the Rays bullpen is a strength, not a weakness. If you’re looking for a team that can win because they’re able to pitch well from the 6th-9th inning in October, Tampa should be among the first teams you like. Their bullpen is tremendous and setup very well for playoff baseball.

On December 13th, Houston and Baltimore made the blockbuster deal that sent Luke Scott to the Orioles. You may have heard the trade referred to as the Miguel Tejada deal, but at this point, it’s pretty clear that Scott’s the best player going forward in that deal. Here are their ’08 performances side by side:

Scott: .272/.369/.509, 437 PA, 1.63 WPA/LI
Tejada: .287/.320/.422, 538 PA, -0.55 WPA/LI

Scott’s run circles around Tejada this year, and has clearly been superior even after you adjust for the difference in positions. While Tejada has degraded into a shell of his former self, Scott continues to fly under the radar as a productive, power hitting outfielder. It’s not like this is his breakout year – check out his career RC/27 graph.

Scott’s combination of patience and power makes him a valuable asset, and one of the key reasons the Orioles have been mediocre instead of terrible this year. Meanwhile, while the Astros are struggling to find enough outfielders who can hit, they’re paying Tejada significant amounts of cash to not live up to his reputation.

The Orioles got rid of both Tejada and Erik Bedard and improved their team on the field immediately – this should be a reminder that media created labels don’t win games, but talent does.

After failing to land Jason Bay at the trade deadline, the Rays put a positive spin on their lack of an acquisition to help their offense, pointing to the impending return of Rocco Baldelli as an alternative to Bay. Considering Baldelli’s medical condition, however, it seemed a bit optimistic to be counting on him for any kind of real production.

Sometimes, though, optimism pays off. Baldelli has played in eight games since coming off the DL, and though it’s only 26 at-bats, his .308/.357/.577 mark has to be making people smile. The mitochondrial disorder that sidelined him all year is known best for sapping strength, so the fact that he’s already knocked a pair of home runs and a double is extremely encouraging. If the lingering health problems were going to weaken him physically, it’s pretty unlikely that he’d be driving the ball immediately upon his return.

Trying to project what Baldelli will do the rest of the way is a fool’s errand, as there are too many variables involved with his health, but we know that he can be a very valuable player when he’s 100%. His 2006 performance showed that he can hit for average and power even with his aggressive approach at the plate, and the Rays could certainly use a right-handed hitter who can drive pitches into the gaps.

If Baldelli is able to produce even as a part-time player, the Rays have to like their chances in the playoffs. Their pitching and defense have been outstanding, and adding another potentially productive bat to the line-up serves to make their Cinderella story less likely to strike midnight anytime soon.