Yesterday, the Braves decided to throw in the towel for 2008, officially putting Mark Teixeira on the trade block in an effort to recoup some of the prospects they gave up to get him a year ago. Teixeira’s a fine player, and would immediately improve any team he’s on, but there isn’t an obvious fit among the teams rumored to be interested. Using Sal Baxamusa’s Quick-N-Dirty Marcel tool and converting the difference to linear weights win values, we can estimate just how much of an impact Teixeira would have on each of the four teams rumored to be in the hunt.

Marcel thinks Teixeira is good for a .289/.382/.524 mark in 248 PA’s the rest of the way, which translates to about nine runs above a replacement level first baseman. His Fielding Bible +/- has him at +12 plays made so far this year, so we’d estimate him at about +5 the rest of the year if that was his true talent level. +5 plays at first base is close to 4 runs, so overall, our projection for Teixeira’s value the rest of the year is about +13 runs, or 1.3 wins, above a replacement level player.

Arizona Diamondbacks – replacing Chad Tracy

Marcel thinks Tracy will hit .284/.348/.472 the rest of the way, and he’s average defensively at first base, which makes him +5 runs over replacement. Teixeira would be an improvement of about 8 runs, or a little bit less than one win.

Boston Red Sox – replacing I Have No Idea

With David Ortiz at DH, Kevin Youkilis at first base, and Mike Lowell at third base, the Teixeira-to-Boston rumors don’t make any sense. No matter which of those three we replaced with Teixeira, the projected difference the rest of the year is a run or two at most. Boston’s not dumb enough to give up a lot of talent for no reason.

Tampa Bay Rays – replacing Cliff Floyd

This would be a little more complicated, as we have to assume Teixeira would play first base, Carlos Pena would move to DH, and Floyd would move into a platoon with Eric Hinske in RF. So, it’s not an even swap, but we can estimate the improvement as the upgrade over Floyd’s bat (sorta) and Pena’s glove. Marcel has Floyd at .257/.339/.430 the rest of the year, and when combined with the minor improvement in defense (Pena’s a good 1B too), the upgrade for Tampa would be about ten runs.

Los Angeles Angels – replacing Juan Rivera

Again, it’s not quite this simple. Rivera would likely still play some, taking time from Garret Anderson and Casey Kotchman, but this is just an estimate, and the results will still be similar, so we’re just going to swap Teixeira into Rivera’s spot. Marcel likes Rivera, thinking he’s good for a .278/.334/.461 mark the rest of the way, and since Kotchman is a good defensive 1B as well, the defensive upgrade is minimal. All told, Teixeira would add about nine runs to the Angels total.

Boston gets eliminated from the race for a lack of an upgrade, and overall, the other three teams would all seemingly benefit about the same amount. The problem, though, is that amount just isn’t that large. Yes, one win may be the difference between a playoff spot and sitting at home in October, so if the price isn’t exorbitant, it should be considered, but these teams don’t have gaping wounds at first base, and the upgrade T-Rex provided wouldn’t be as large as you might think, given his abilities.

It’s not worth mortgaging the farm for. Perhaps there’s a deal out there that makes sense for both Atlanta and a potential buyer, but there’s not a team that Teixeira is goiing to be the difference maker for.

This morning, we covered the four hitters who will be free agents this winter that are basically a lock for Cooperstown. The pitching class dwarfs even that impressive crop of hitters.

Randy Johnson, LHP – 292 wins, 3.26 ERA, 52.63 WPA/LI

The Big Unit is the most dominant left-handed pitcher baseball has seen since a guy named Sandy Koufax. Even though he didn’t pitch his first full big league season until age 25, he’s still just eight wins shy of 300 and has an outside shot at 5,000 strikeouts, depending on how long he wants to keep pitching. His 1997 to 2002 stretch is something out of a legend, and while he turns 45 in a few months, he’s still blowing hitters away. Dominance and endurance make an obvious case for Cooperstown.

Greg Maddux, RHP – 350 wins, 3.14 ERA, 57.64 WPA/LI

While Johnson’s 100 MPH fastball made it easy to see why he could blow hitters away, Maddux was always more of an artist than a gladiator. His strikeout rate is just over 6 batters per 9 innings, a modest total considering he spent his entire career in the National League. But his impeccable command and ability to get his pitches to dive and sink made him untouchable from 1988 to 2003, a brilliant 15 year peak that would fit in with the primes of any of the all time greats. That he pitched his best when offense was taking off around him speaks all the more to his greatness.

Pedro Martinez, RHP – 212 wins, 2.86 ERA, 51.96 WPA/LI

His career totals aren’t as impressive as others, as he’s battled problems with injuries and isn’t going to last as long as the greats listed above. But if we look at just his prime, Pedro’s 1999 to 2002 peak is better than anyone has ever pitched in the history of baseball. His FIP is 1999 in 1.39! 37 walks, 313 strikeouts, and just 9 home runs allowed? That’s… I don’t even have anything to add to that.

Tom Glavine, LHP – 305 wins, 3.53 ERA, 28.35 WPA/LI

Glavine was never the best pitcher in baseball, but from 1991 to 2002, he was always hanging around the conversation. Like his long time teammate Maddux, he didn’t blow hitters away, but succeeded by painting the outside corner and keeping the ball in the park. The opposite of Pedro, he didn’t have a Hall of Fame peak, but his ability to be good for a long time gets him in, even if not by much.

Trevor Hoffman, RHP – 545 saves, 2.79 ERA, 15.84 WPA/LI

Despite my affection for WPA/LI, it doesn’t work well for relievers, who are more valuable than their non-leveraged totals reflect because of their constant work in high pressure situations. And while the closer might be an overrated position, there are few better 9th inning relievers in the history of baseball than Hoffman. He may be overshadowed on this list of inner circle types, but he’s clearly a Hall of Famer.

Those five guys are basically locks for the Hall. They aren’t the only ones, though – you could make a really good case for Mike Mussina as well, though right now, I think the BBWAA would keep him out, unfortunately. Also not included are John Smoltz and Curt Schilling, neither of whom are as much free agents this winter as they are rehabbing potential retirees. The list also doesn’t include the involuntarily retired Roger Clemens or Barry Bonds, who have some obvious off-the-field issues that make their candidacy a little more clouded than it should be.

All in all, however, there are nine absolute mortal lock Hall of Fame players available as real assets this winter, with a half dozen others who have a real shot to get in. I can’t imagine free agency has ever seen a greater class, and this will almost certainly go down as the greatest group of players (from a career standpoint) to ever hit free agency at the same time.

Can you imagine your reaction 10 years ago if you knew you’d have a single off-season where Pudge, Manny, Griffey, Thomas, Pedro, Johnson, Maddux, Glavine, and Hoffman would all be available? It’s pretty remarkable.

This winter, there’s a banner crop of free agents available. No, I’m not talking about Mark Teixeira, Ben Sheets, or CC Sabathia, the guys who will get the most money in their new contracts. I’m talking about a group of free agents who share something beyond expiring contracts – a space reserved in Cooperstown. Today, both of my posts here will look at the remarkable crop of certain Hall of Famers that will be filing for free agency this offseason. We’ll start with the hitters.

Ivan Rodriguez, Catcher – .288/.339/.477, 3.80 WPA/LI

Without a doubt, Pudge is one of the best catchers of all-time. A defensive star who could also hit, he’s had a great career that has spanned 17 seasons, and over the years, he’s racked up impressive totals. He already has 2,500 hits and is 7 home runs away from 300. Among catchers since 1956, only Mike Piazza and Carlton Fisk have amassed a higher Runs Created total. Add in the defense, and he’s easily one of the best to ever don the tools of ignorance.

Manny Ramirez, OF – .299/.409/.590, 52.52 WPA/LI

Manny is in constantly in the news for the wrong reasons, and as happens every year, he’s back on the trade block as the Red Sox wonder if he’s worth the trouble he causes. He’s a defensive liability and a bit of a side show, but he’s also one of the best right-handed hitters of all time. Even after adjusting for the difference in offensive eras that they played in, his numbers stack up favorably with the likes of Henry Aaron. We haven’t see many better pure hitters in our lifetime, and despite the fact that his personality often overshadows his play, he’s a Hall of Famer.

Ken Griffey Jr, OF – .288/.373/.549, 52.13 WPA/LI

Despite the unfulfilled potential, the what-could-have-been-if-he-would-have-stayed-healthy questions, and the less than glorious return to his home town of Cincinnati, Junior is one of the all time greats. He earned the nickname The Natural at a young age for a reason, and always made the game seem easy. Even today, as his body betrays him, his swing still looks effortless as the ball sails off into the night sky. There can be no doubt that, when you watch him play, you’re seeing someone with a gift.

Frank Thomas, 1B – .302/.420/.588, 69.53 WPA/LI

Before Pujols, there was Thomas – the feared right-handed first baseman with prodigious power but also a remarkable command of the strike zone. The Big Hurt was the guy that pitchers couldn’t get out, and for a stretch in the mid-90s, he was the dominant offensive force in the American League. He’s 52 hits away from 2,500, has more than 500 home runs, and more walks than strikeouts. Even with more games spent as a DH than a first baseman, Thomas is an easy choice. Hitters this good live forever in upstate New York.

If you think this crop of hitters is impressive, wait until you see the pitchers.

Last night, the surging Yankees acquired Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte from the Pirates in exchange for four prospects (headlined by enigmatic Jose Tabata). Nady is the big name, thanks to a stellar first half performance that made him one of the better right-handed bats available this summer.

Looking at Nady from afar, we see a 29-year-old having a career year, thanks in large part to a .367 batting average on balls in play, and we see a guy who looks to be a classic fluke. However, there are some real underlying reasons why Nady’s numbers are up significantly so far this year, and they can’t be attributed to bloopers falling in.

Nady is making significantly more contact (16.8% K%, 19.7% career) and better contact (26.5% LD%, 20.9% career) so far this year. When you hit the ball hard and more often, a significant increase in batting average naturally follows. Whether Nady can sustain a 26.5% LD% is questionable, but let’s not confuse his early season performance with luck. He really has hit the tar out of the baseball this year.

Will it continue? Marcel doesn’t think so. Going back to Sal Baxamusa’s Quick-N-Dirty Marcel tool to get an updated projection for Nady for the rest of the year, we see that it thinks he’ll hit .285/.344/.469 to finish out the season. Compare that to the .273/.332/.451 mark it expected from him before the year started, and you see that Marcel has factored in a slight improvement, but overall, thinks Nady’s basically the same hitter he was before the year started.

That isn’t to say a guy who can hit .285/.344/.469 doesn’t have value, especially to a team like the Yankees where worrying about how much he’ll get in arbitration this winter isn’t a big concern. But despite the fact that Nady’s earned his .330 batting average so far this year, he’s simply not a true talent .300 hitter. I’m sure the Yankees know this, though, and they’re not expecting Nady to keep hitting like he is now.

The question is, though, will they be happy if he starts hitting like ’07 Nady again? Because Marcel thinks that’s pretty likely.

Pop quiz time – name the top three hitters in extra base hits in the American League so far in 2008. Ready? Go.

Ian Kinsler? There’s one that a lot of people might get.
Brian Roberts? I’d be surprised if you got this one, but maybe.
Aubrey Huff? You’re either his mother or you’re lying.

It’s true – Aubrey Huff is third in the AL in extra base hits so far this year with 51. He had 54 all of last year, and had less than 50 in each year from 2004 to 2006 before that. So you’re forgiven for not expecting Huff to show up on this particular leaderboard (and to be behind two second baseman to boot, but that’s another post), because really, this was a power surge that no one saw coming.

After a solid but short peak in ’02 and ’03, Huff’s power denigrated to the point of being about league average, which isn’t great for a DH. He posted Isolated Slugging Percentages of .167 and .162 the last two years, so it wasn’t surprising when all the preseason projections had him right around the same range. Instead, he’s posting a .243 ISO, which is pretty much the same as Albert Pujols. His surprising display of power has been one of the reasons the O’s have been more competitive than expected, giving Baltimore a legitimate run producer to drive in the guys at the top of the order.

At age 31, it’s unlikely that Huff has found the fountain of youth and will continue to perform at this level, but he would make a lot of sense for a contender in need of a left-handed bat for the stretch drive. He’s owed $3 million for the rest of this season and then $8 million next year, but that’s not an entirely unreasonable contract, and teams like Minnesota should be calling the O’s to find out what the asking price is.

As we near the trading deadline, there is essentially one good pitcher left on the trade block – A.J. Burnett. Because of his ability to opt out of his contract at years end and their placement in the standings, the Blue Jays are willing to move him if the right offer comes along. But Burnett has always been something of an anomaly, so what is the right offer?

First, we have to know what we expect Burnett to do the rest of the year. For that, we’ll use Sal Baxamusa’s Quick-N-Dirty Marcel spreadsheet, which he made available a couple of weeks ago. Plugging Burnett’s numbers gives us an updated Marcel projection for the rest of the year, and produces the following results for Burnett:

84 IP, 82 H, 34 BB, 80 K, 9 HR, 3.73 ERA.

That’s right – Marcel is so effected by his struggles in the first half of the season that it actually projects him to do better in the second half than he did last year. That should tell you all you need to know about the predictive power of ERA right there.

So, if we do away with the idea that Burnett’s current 4.73 ERA is somehow his new true talent level, we see that Burnett is still quite capable of being a solid addition to a contender’s pitching staff down the stretch run. If he was replacing a guy with a 4.82 ERA projection, the difference between Burnett and that starter would be one full win, and most teams that would be trading for Burnett would be replacing starters even worse than that hypothetical.

A.J. Burnett isn’t Sabathia or Harden, but he’s not chopped liver either. If there’s a team that really wants to make a run at the title and needs a starter, they’d be wise to overlook Burnett’s reputation and pay for his expected performance.

C.C. Sabathia likes the National League. Last night, he made his fourth start with the Brewers since being acquired from Cleveland, and he threw his third straight complete game, giving up just three hits in shutting out the Cardinals. The only other pitcher who has thrown back-to-back complete games this season is Roy Halladay, who threw four straight during April. Three straight complete games is impressive, but he has a ways to go before he ties the Rick Langford’s modern baseball record of 22. Yes, 22. Langford threw complete games in 28 of the 33 games he started in 1980, tossing 290 innings along the way. The game was a little different then.

How does Sabathia’s four start run compare to other great pitching runs we’ve seen this year? Here are the contenders.

John Lackey, 6/11 to 6/29: 31.7 IP, 19 H, 7 BB, 29 K, 1.14 ERA
Dan Haren, 6/18 to 7/4: 28 IP, 18 H, 5 BB, 27 K, 0.96 ERA
Felix Hernandez, 5/31 to 6/17: 28.3 IP, 18 H, 5 BB, 29 K, 0.95 ERA
John Danks, 6/14 to 7/1: 26 IP, 18 H, 6 BB, 22 K, 0.69 ERA
Scott Kazmir, 5/15 to 5/31: 27 IP, 13 H, 7 BB, 27 K, 0.67 ERA

C.C. Sabathia, 7/8 to 7/24: 33 IP, 20 H, 8 BB, 31 K, 1.36 ERA

From a run prevention standpoint, he can’t quite match the best four start stretches of guys like Kazmir and Danks, though he made up for the difference in quality through sheer quantity of innings. I’d probably take Lackey’s run as the best of the bunch, since it came against AL competition, but Sabathia is certainly in the running.

It really is hard to fathom that this Sabathia is the same guy who gave up nine runs in back-to-back games back in April and had a 13.50 ERA after his first four starts of 2008. His ERA since then? 2.10.

With the way Sabathia is throwing, the Brewers are going to be very hard to beat if they get to the playoffs.

This morning, we looked at the three potential MVP candidates from Texas and decided that Josh Hamilton was the best of the bunch, as he’s added about 1.9 wins over a league average player at this point. Does that make him a legitimate candidate for AL MVP?

Let’s look at the other contenders, using the same process described in this morning’s post.

Grady Sizemore: 2.7 WPA/LI, +0.5 position adjustment, +0.5 defense – +3.7 wins
Joe Mauer: 2.2 WPA/LI, +1 position adjustment, ? defense – +3.2 wins
Alex Rodriguez: 2.6 WPA/LI, no position adjustment, +0.1 defense – +2.7 wins

I think these three are the real AL MVP candidates as of July 23rd. Sizemore’s having a tremendous season while no one notices, and considering his offensive production matches Hamilton’s while playing in a less hitter friendly park and playing better defense, it’s tough to justify a real argument for Hamilton over Sizemore. Grady’s been the best CF in the league, and if you’re going to pick an MVP from that position, it has to be him.

The difference between Mauer and Sizemore really comes down to how much credit you want to give Mauer for his defense. We have almost no ability to quantify a catchers impact on a pitching staff, so while most people agree that he’s great back there, how much is that worth. Half a win? A win? Two wins? I have no idea. I’ll let you fill in that part yourself, and your answer to his defensive value probably determines whether you think the MVP at this point is Mauer or Sizemore.

A-Rod’s in the race, but he’s going to need a huge finish to make up the gap. He’s capable of it, but I wouldn’t bet on him right now.

The Texas Rangers are keeping themselves in the wild card race with a monstrous offense trying to overcome some really bad pitching and defense. At the heart of the run scoring machine are three hitters having terrific seasons – Ian Kinsler, Josh Hamilton, and Milton Bradley. At different times in the year, all three have been lauded as potential AL MVP candidates, and you can make a case for each one.

However, it’s hard to argue that your the most valuable player in the league if you aren’t the most valuable player on your own team, so this morning, we’ll try to figure out which one of the Texas trio has been the best so far in ’08.

Let’s start with the offense, using WPA/LI as the metric of choice.

Bradley: 2.82 WPA/LI
Hamilton: 2.58 WPA/LI
Kinsler: 2.49 WPA/LI

Bradley’s pretty clear been the best hitter of the three, with the difference between Hamilton and Kinsler being pretty small. Of course, Bradley’s also spent most of his time at DH, so his offensive performance relative to his peers is less impressive than his teammates. Let’s adjust for position scarcity, using tangotiger’s position spectrum. Over a full season, DHs get a -1.5 win penalty, second baseman get no adjustment, and center fielders get a 0.5 win bonus. We’re 60% of the way through the season, so we’ll use 60% of those adjustments, giving us the following position adjusted offensive estimates:

Bradley: 1.9 offensive wins added
Hamilton: 2.9 offensive wins added
Kinsler: 2.5 offensive wins added

Hamilton takes a firm lead, with Bradley falling to the back of the pack. However, defense counts too, and since Hamilton and Kinsler take the field, we have to factor their performances with the glove as well (Bradley’s already been docked heavily for DH’ing, so we don’t further dock him in defensive analysis). We’ll use the Fielding Bible +/- numbers from Bill James Online for our purposes here, since it’s the best defensive metric out there published in season.

John Dewan’s system has Hamilton as a -10 play defender in center field and -2 in right field. Those 12 plays that he didn’t make are basically equivalent to one win lost. Hamilton’s really a right fielder being stretched beyond his skills in CF, so some of his offensive value is given back when his defense is compared to players with more range.

Kinsler isn’t a particularly great defensive second baseman either, and +/- isn’t much kinder to him, giving him a -13 mark that ranks him 32nd among major league second baseman. Ouch.

So, we chop 1 win off for both Hamilton and Kinsler, and our new win values for the Texas Trio come out as follows:

Bradley: 1.9 wins added
Hamilton: 1.9 wins added
Kinsler: 1.5 wins added

After defense is factored in, Hamilton and Bradley come out even, while Kinsler falls back to third place. While his offense is terrific compared to other second baseman, +/- doesn’t really see Kinsler as much of a second baseman, and the overall nods go to the guys having the better offensive seasons.

There’s still a good chunk of the season to go, but right now, I’d have to go with Josh Hamilton as the Rangers MVP, slightly edging out Bradley in a situation where you could make a case for either one. Does he have a case for league MVP? We’ll get to that tonight.

When the Mariners caved in to Baltimore’s demands and agreed to build a package for Erik Bedard around outfielder Adam Jones, most of the Mariners blogosphere was livid. I personally wrote that I wouldn’t swap Jones for Bedard straight up, much less adding in George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, and Kam Mickolio. Our response to the deal was a combination of exasperated frustration and resignation to rooting for an organization who just didn’t understand how valuable Jones was.

Not everyone saw it the same way we did, though. The local media was especially supportive of dealing prospects for a proven all-star starter, and were quick to point out that Jones hadn’t established himself as a major leaguer yet. When, at the end of May, he was hitting .242/.292/.351 with just two home runs and an 11/46 BB/K rate, they gladly patted themselves on the back and reminded everyone that Jones wasn’t as good as we thought, and trading him away was justified, even if Bedard had been a disappointment.

Since June 1st, however, he’s been on a mission to justify our faith, hitting .327/.364/.484 and getting promoted to the #2 hole in the O’s line-up. Still just 22-years-old, he’s raw as can be (5.2% BB%, 23.2% K%, .130 ISO), but is still producing quality results without putting all his physical skills to use.

When Jones adds a bit more selectivity to his approach at the plate and grows into his power, he’s certainly got potential as a .290/.340/.470 type of hitter, and combined with his defense in center field, he’s a star in the making. Don’t let the early struggles fool you – Adam Jones is one of the best young players in baseball.