As numerous studies have shown, it’s very hard to predict who will perform well in clutch situations, as the Great Clutch Project continues to demonstrate. Even players with cemented reputations as clutch or choke hitters see huge swings in their performance in high leverage situations, and it’s nearly impossible to find a guy who consistently does better than we would expect in big time pressure spots.

However, there is one player who is currently following up a pretty clutch 2007 with an even more clutch 2008 – he’s the only guy who amassed a clutch score of 1.00 or greater last year and has already done the same this year. That guy is the legendary master of timely hitting… Maicer Izturis.

In 2007, Izturis totaled 1.12 wins thanks to clutch hitting, good for the 19th highest clutch rating in the game despite getting just 336 at-bats as a part-time player. So far in 2008, he’s totaled 198 at-bats and already amassed a 1.22 clutch rating, 4th highest in baseball. Almost all of that has come in the last month, as Izturis has been a big hit machine for the Angels recently, including these remarkably high leverage hits.

June 11th, 5.96 LI, 7th inning, down 2-1, vs Scott Kazmir: Bases loaded single scores two.
June 1st, 6.39 LI, 9th inning, 3-3 tie, vs B.J. Ryan: Walk off single wins game.

He amassed .702 WPA in those two at-bats alone, accounting for most of his 1.01 WPA on the season.

In his career, Izturis now has a clutch score of 2.59 in 1184 at-bats. If he sustains this kind of performance much longer, it won’t be long before he gets tagged with the clutch hitter label.

When J.D. Drew signed his 5 year, $70 million contract with the Red Sox, they were destroyed by national media writers such as Bill Simmons who pushed the narrative that Drew was an unclutch loser who couldn’t perform under pressure and wasn’t any good even when he was healthy. Theo Epstein and company were pilloried for their staunch desire to acquire a high on base outfielder and overlooking all the obvious flaws that made him such a bad player. Drew was held up as the example of the kind of move that statheads make when they don’t get their nose out of a spreadsheet.

Drew has news for that group of writers – you can all apologize now.

Drew has been absolutely sensational so far in 2008, putting up a .315/.424/.576 line that is the best of any American League outfielder. Only Milton Bradley (DH, plays in Texas) and Alex Rodriguez are posting a higher OPS than Drew, and his 2.00 WPA/LI ranks 4th in the league.

He’s doing it through his usual blend of patience (15.8% BB%, #4 in AL) and power (.261 ISO, T-4th in AL), reversing a decline in his isolated slugging percentage over the last few years. His performance has kept the Boston offense rolling despite the struggles and then injury to David Ortiz, and right now, he’s pretty clearly the Red Sox best player.

In the year and a half he’s been with Boston, he’s been worth about 25 runs more than an average hitter. Depending on what you think of his defense, the conclusion is that Drew has been worth about 4 to 5 wins above a replacement level right fielder during his time in Boston. Wins are going for close to $5 million apiece in the free agent market, so if Drew was compensated fairly, we’d expect that he’d have earned between $20-$25 million for his work. Thanks to a $14 million average annual payout, we know that the Red Sox have paid him about $20 million since the contract kicked in – pretty much dead on what he’s been worth.

J.D. Drew is a very good baseball player. The Red Sox are a very good organization. The narrative about both of them was wrong.

Matt Lindstrom throws harder than anyone else in baseball. His average fastball velocity is 97 miles per hour, and he breaks triple digits regularly. No one else in baseball is even with 1 MPH of Lindstrom’s average fastball – Jonathan Papelbon is next at 95.6 MPH. The heat is his calling card, and not surprisingly, he throws it a lot – 71% of his pitches are fastballs.

Like a lot of power relievers, Lindstrom’s second pitch is a slider. He throws it 22.2% of the time, and realistically, it’s the pitch he’ll throw you if he’s not going to try to light up the radar. However, Lindstrom’s slider checks in at a more modest 83.9 MPH velocity. That’s not slow by any means, but it’s not even close to being among the hardest in the league – the BIS data here on FanGraphs has him throwing the 101st hardest slider in baseball. Some of those are miscategorized fastballs and cutters, so he’s probably closer to the top 80, but the velocity difference of 13 MPH between his fastball and slider is still pretty staggering.

The people he shares a similar slider velocity with include Bill Bray (91.3 MPH fastball), Seth McClung (93.1 MPH fastball), Jason Frasor (93.9 MPH fastball), Jeremy Guthrie (92.8 MPH fastball), Leo Nunez (94.2 MPH fastball), and Jason Hammel (92.0 MPH fastball). Lindstrom’s 97.0 stands out from that crowd like a sore thumb.

For whatever reason, Lindstrom just doesn’t throw the slider with the same power that he dials up his fastball, and that’s likely one of the main reasons his strikeout rate is lower than you would expect with a guy who can pop triple digits. When he’s bringing the heat, it’s pretty straight, and when you get something that moves, it’s simply not a dominating power pitch anymore.

A lot has gone right so far this year for the Chicago Cubs – they have the best record in baseball led by an offense that scores runs in a hurry. It takes more than one breakthrough performance to create this kind of improvement in one winter, and so while the credit has to be passed around, no player’s surge has been more unexpected or helpful than that of Ryan Dempster.

Dempster was a rather pedestrian reliever the last few years with Chicago, missing bats but also having problems finding the strike zone on a consistent basis. Like a lot of right-handed pitchers who use a fastball/slider combination as their two main pitches, he also struggled significantly against left-handers. His career splits vs batter handedness are below:

Vs RHB: .246/.324/.379, 2.09 K/BB, 1 HR per 40 AB
Vs LHB: .280/.386/.456, 1.23 K/BB, 1 HR per 28 AB

With significant platoon splits, relief work seemed the best fit for Dempster, so he could be used primarily against same handed hitters. As a starter, the opposing manager would have the ability to load up the line-up with lefties and let the offense go nuts. There wasn’t much there to suggest that Dempster was going to be a quality starting pitcher.

However, Dempster has taken the challenge of facing more left-handed bats and answered it with gusto. His 2008 splits:

Vs RHB: .193/.295/.289, 1.54 K/BB, 1 HR per 55 AB
Vs LHB: .177/.247/.304, 3.15 K/BB, 1 HR per 32 AB

He has more strikeouts against lefties than he does against righties, and he’s putting them on with the free pass far less often than in years past. His pitch selection doesn’t appear to have changed much, mixing in a change-up (that Lou Piniella calls a splitter and has similar downward movement) about 1/3 of the time against lefties and keeping the slider as a weapon against right-handed hitters.

Whether his change/split has really improved or, more likely, this is just an unsustainable excellent performance, the Cubs have to be thrilled with how the Dempster-to-the-rotation move has worked. He’s not going to post a 2.81 ERA this year, but even a regression to his 3.78 FIP would make him a quality starting pitcher. If he can continue to keep left-handed hitters in check, the Cubs will have found themselves another strong arm to slot in behind Carlos Zambrano in their chase to end the curse of the billy goat.

Bench players are almost always not given a starting job for a reason – they have a significant flaw in their game that usually involves either an inability to field a position, a lack of offensive ability, or (if you’re a Seattle Mariner) both. Teams just want their reserves to be able to fill a specific role (pinch runner, defensive replacement, etc…) and not completely embarrass themselves when they get put in the game.

For instance, the average in-game substitute compiles a .217/.305/.324 line after entering the game. As a group, reserves don’t hit much – if they did, they’d be starting. But in Philadelphia, it’s a different story – their subs have hit .283/.350/.453 in 183 plate appearances off the bench. That .803 OPS from their subs is 52 percent better than the league average performance, and is one of the reasons the Phillies are surging to the front of the N.L. East.

The shining star of the Phillies fill-ins is Greg Dobbs, who has destroyed the baseball in games he entered but did not start – 19 for 42 with five extra base hits for a .452/.467/.653 mark. That dwarfs Dobbs’ performance as a starter – 13 for 45 with three extra base hits for a .289/.333/.400 mark. This, of course, is just random variation, but it’s interesting random variation.

The Phillies have some big name stars and several former MVPs on their roster, but let’s not overlook the yeoman’s work their bench has done for them this year. Jayson Werth, Chris Coste, and Greg Dobbs have given them all-star caliber performances despite not being handed regular jobs out of spring training, and those guys are the hidden stars on the first place Phillies.

It’s not a big surprise that some members of the Florida Marlins are hitting well this year. We knew that Hanley Ramirez, Jeremy Hermida, Dan Uggla, and Hanley Ramirez, Jeremy Hermida, Dan Uggla, and Mike Jacobs all had offensive ability, and as Eric noted last night, they’ve even gotten some production from Cody Ross as well. But there’s one guy who hasn’t gotten a lot of recognition despite tearing the cover off the ball for Florida this year – Jorge Cantu.

After going deep twice last night, Cantu now has 14 long balls in 250 at-bats, leading to a strong .296/.346/.532 line that has made him one of the most productive third baseman in the National League on the year. His above average power is his main calling card, as 31 of his 76 hits have gone for extra bases. He’s still the same aggressive hitter he’s always been (career 5.2% BB% and 18.8% K%), and he can be exploited by pitchers with good breaking balls. However, there aren’t many guys on earth who can tear the cover off a fastball better than Cantu, and the Marlins were willing to overlook what he can’t do to get the value from the thing he can do.

You see, Jorge Cantu might be the worst defensive player on earth. MGL released the 2008 UZR leaderboards the other day, and surprising no one, Cantu ranked out as the worst defensive third baseman in baseball so far this year. This isn’t anything new – Cantu has ranked at the bottom of practically every defensive metric ever invented in every single season he’s played. It isn’t just a numbers thing, either – scouts and managers alike cringe every time a ball is hit his direction.

By most accounts, Cantu costs his team something like 20 to 25 runs a season versus an average defender over a full season. If Cantu keeps hitting at this level, his offensive value will make up for almost all of his defensive flaws, and the Marlins will have found themselves a league average third baseman for the league minimum. But realistically, Cantu’s not going to hit this well all season, and with his glove issues, he really belongs at DH. If ever there was a player who the designated hitter was invented for, Cantu is it.

The Marlins, however, will gladly take the combination of his bat and glove as long as he’s hitting this well, and teams that continue to believe that they have to spend millions to find somewhat useful players should remember that guys like Cantu are easily found if you’re willing to look around.

This morning, we looked at the regression of the Arizona Diamondbacks offense and how it’s caused the team to struggle since the end of April. But the hitters aren’t the only ones who haven’t held up their end of the bargain, so now, let’s take a look at the pitchers.

In April, the D’backs did a better job of preventing runs than any other team in baseball, posting a 3.25 ERA in their first 252 innings of work. They did it by excelling in all three of the true outcomes categories, ranking third in the NL in strikeouts (206), fourth in walks (92), and tied for first in home runs allowed (19). Brandon Webb took his awesomeness up a level, giving up just nine earned runs in 41 innings of work, while offseason acquisition Dan Haren chipped in with 37 1/3 innings of work and a 3.13 ERA himself. But, really, the stars of April were the bullpen, as the Arizona relievers (led by Chad Qualls, Brandon Lyon, Brandon Medders, and Juan Cruz) posted a 2.48 ERA as a group.

When you’re not putting people on base or letting them hit the ball over the wall, and you’re missing bats regularly, opposing offenses aren’t going to score many runs – best in the N.L. in April. Even if you got Webb and Haren out of the game, it wasn’t getting any easier. It’s tough for any bullpen to sustain pitching of that quality, however, and sure enough, the Arizona relievers have taken a pretty big step back since. In May, they posted a 4.48 ERA as a group, thanks largely to increases in their walk rate (3.41 BB/9 in April, 4.21 BB/9 in May) and in their home run rate (.49 HR/9 in April, .71 HR/9 in May). Without a bullpen slamming the door, it became harder for Arizona to hang on for close wins, and the struggles of their relievers turned games they were winning in April into losses in May.

It’s not just the relievers, however, who have taken a step back. Micah Owings was brilliant in his first four starts of the season, posting a 2.42 ERA with a 6/23 BB/K in 26 innings of work. In his last nine starts, however, he’s put up a 5.90 ERA in 50 innings of work. After winning the first four starts he made, the D’Backs are just 3-6 in his last nine, thanks in large part to the runs he’s allowed. However, D’Backs fans should be encouraged that his underlying performance hasn’t changed that dramatically. Here are his April/May core stats side by side:

April: 2.08 BB/9, 7.96 K/9, 1.03 HR/9
May: 3.22 BB/9, 7.69 K/9, 1.25 HR/9

The extra walk per game explains some of the difference, but that May profile is still quite a bit better than his ERA would suggest. Owings will bounce back, and I wouldn’t worry about him much if I was an Arizona fan.

While the pitching staff hasn’t been as good as they were in April, there are fewer reasons for concern here than with the offense. Webb/Haren/Johnson/Owings/Davis is a terrific rotation, and the bullpen is still solid, even if not best-in-the-league as they were early on in the year. The D’Backs are going to be among the league leaders in preventing runs, and even with the rough patch they’ve gone through, they should be happy with the personnel they have. They just need another hitter.

The Arizona Diamondbacks came out of the gates quickly in 2008, punishing their opponents in April and looking like the early team to beat. Their offense was scoring runs in bunches and their pitching was stellar, leading to a lot of lopsided wins. On April 28th, they stood 19-7. Even after yesterday’s win, they are now just 35-30. Today, we’ll take a two part look at what’s gone wrong in the desert in the last six weeks.

In April, the D’Backs hit .268/.345/.468, posting an OPS that was 21 percent better than the league average and second best in the National League, trailing only the Cubs in offensive production. They were led by huge months from Conor Jackson (.348/.430/.630) and Justin Upton (.327/.372/.554) while getting solid performances from just about everyone else. However, neither player has been able to sustain their hot starts, with Jackson hitting .253/.273/.385 since May 1st and Upton struggling to a .196/.353/.355 mark in that same time frame.

In fact, the D’Backs don’t have a single hitter who has been consistently good all season. Mark Reynolds was great at the beginning of April, struggled badly from the end of April through May, and has caught fire again in June, and along with Jackson, he’s been the most productive D’Backs hitter so far this season. But some good runs mixed with long slumps (Reynolds posted a .441 OPS between April 23rd and May 17th) simply won’t do for middle of the order hitters on a contending club.

Arizona’s offense is comprised of a bunch of good-but-not-great hitters. There isn’t an MVP hitter on this team, and so they’re going to have to get production from all eight spots (plus Micah Owings) to score enough runs to be a legitimate contender. If the offensive yo-yo continues, Josh Byrnes and company might have to look into acquiring another hitter for the stretch run.

Dontrelle Willis is broken. At 26 years old, for whatever reason, he has lost the ability to throw the ball over the plate. Here are his performances so far in 2008:

April 5th, vs White Sox: 5 IP, 1 H, 7 BB, 0 K, 99 pitches, 46 strikes
April 11th, vs White Sox: 0 IP, 0 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 14 pitches, 4 strikes
May 23rd, vs Twins: 1 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 0 K, 28 pitches, 13 strikes
June 3rd, vs Athletics: 4 IP, 2 H, 5 BB, 3 K, 70 pitches, 37 strikes
June 9th, vs Indians: 1 1/3 IP, 3 H, 5 BB, 2 K, 64 pitches, 27 strikes

After his April 11th appearance, the Tigers put him on the DL to try to give him a chance to figure out his mechanics and get himself ready to pitch. It didn’t work, and after three more disastrous appearances since returning, he’s now been optioned to Single-A Lakeland of the Florida State League, as the Tigers are going to put him on the Roy Halladay plan to try to repair their busted starting pitcher. Toronto sent Halladay back to the minors in 2000 after he posted a 10.64 ERA in 67 innings of work, and with some changes in his approach and his delivery, he returned in 2001 and restarted a dominating, Cy Young career.

That’s obviously the best case scenario for Willis, but it appears an unlikely one. While Halladay was bad in 2000, he wasn’t anywhere near this horrible.

Halladay, 2000: 5.59 BB/9, 5.85 K/9, 1.86 HR/9, 6.49 FIP
Willis, 2008: 16.68 BB/9, 3.97 K/9, 1.59 HR/9, 10.11 FIP

Halladay was bad, but Willis is struggling on a Rick Ankiel level. Only 48% of his pitches on the season have been strikes, and he’s posting a dreadful 6% swinging strike rate. Even when he manages to get the ball over the plate, which is a rarity unto itself, hitters are making contact. He’s simply not able to locate any of his pitches, and the results lead to either a called ball or a crushed line drive.

Generally, when a pitcher struggles this badly, the initial assumption is that he’s hurt, but Willis’ stuff hasn’t taken much of a dive. His fastball velocity still sits at 88.5 MPH, down less than 1 MPH from last year’s mark, and he’s actually throwing his change-up harder this year than at any point in the last four years. If he’s’ hurt, it isn’t affecting his velocity.

Really, the best guess here is that it’s a mental problem. By sending him to Lakeland, the Tigers can get him some work away from the obsessive eyes of fans and let him tinker with his mechanics in a safe environment where the results don’t matter. But, for 2008, Tigers fans should assume they’re not going to see Willis again – he could use the next three months in the minors to fix what’s broken and try to return as a successful pitcher in 2009.

Ater being stuck on 599 for several weeks, Ken Griffey Jr launched the 600th home run of his career last night, allowing Mark Hendrickson to go down in history for something other than being tall. Junior joins Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, and Sammy Sosa as the only players in history to notch 600 career bombs.

Growing up in Seattle, I saw Junior come up as a 19-year-old and then grow into an MVP candidate. One of the most frequent conversations I had with friends was whether Junior was going to be the one to get to 756 and break the all time home run record. Most people who saw him play in his prime would agree that he certainly had the ability to do so, but unfortunately, he didn’t have the ability to stay healthy. Due to injuries, he played less than half of a season in 1995, 2002, 2003, and 2004 – those injuries cost him approximately 1,300 at-bats. How many more home runs would he have hit had he stayed healthy?

Well, we can never know for sure, but there are several estimates we can use. The simplest is to note that he has a career rate of one home run every 15.75 at-bats. Over 1,300 trips to the plate, that same rate would have given him an extra 83 bombs. Of course, his career rate includes both his early years before his power developed, and he likely would have posted a AB/HR rate closer to his peak seasons, when he fluctuated between one home run every 10 to 13 trips to the plate. Using those rates, here are the amount of homers we could theoretically add to Junior’s career total depending on which of those numbers you think would best emulate Griffey’s performance.

One HR every 10 at-bats: Add 130 homers
One HR every 11 at-bats: Add 118 homers
One HR every 12 at-bats: Add 108 homers
One HR every 13 at-bats: Add 100 homers

Depending on your beliefs about his abilities in those seasons, the basic assumption should be that the injuries in those four seasons cost him between 100 and 130 home runs, pushing him into the exclusive 700 home run club. At age 38 and reaching a level that suggests he doesn’t have that much left to contribute, it’s unlikely that Junior would have passed Hank Aaron even had he stayed healthy, but he would have had a shot at it.

Ken Griffey Jr has had a great career, but we’ll always wonder what could have been had the injuries not robbed him of a significant part of his career.