So far, Andruw Jones hasn’t had the start to his Dodger career that anyone would have hoped for. His .149/.259/.234 line would make him a decent hitting pitcher, but as an $18 million dollar per year slugging outfielder, it’s pretty miserable. Is there something we can see in the graphs here that might give us an idea of why he’s struggled out of the gates?

The batted ball distribution in 2008 shows two clear changes from his career norms; a nearly 20% uptick in ground ball rate, which corresponds to declines in flyball and line drive rates. Instead of lifting the ball and driving it, Jones is hitting the ball on the ground at a rate that would categorize him as a slash-and-dash hitter who uses his speed to try to leg out infield singles. Perhaps 10 years ago, he might have been able to make that work, but not anymore. He relies on his abilities in the box to get him on base, and he’s just not capable of creating offense while he’s pounding the ball into the dirt.

The sample is still small enough, so we shouldn’t jump to any conclusions about this being a definite change in skills. However, if you’re looking for a sign that Andruw is breaking out of his slump, look for him to get the ball in the air – when he starts getting lift in his swing again, the results will follow naturally.

Last night, Philadelphia was witness to a pair of comebacks. First, the one that will get headlines.

The Phillies had a dramatic come from behind win last night despite trailing 3-0 heading into the bottom of the 9th inning. They won a game where their Win Expectancy hit 4.4% with just three outs to go, with Pedro Feliz playing the role of hero after his game winning double down the line scored Geoff Jenkins. Sharing in the heroes spotlight will be Pat Burrell, who hit a game tying home run just two batters before the game ended. Burrell’s blast and Feliz’s double are the moments that Phillies fans will remember from this game for the rest of the year.

However, the inning started with a comeback of its own, and one that won’t get nearly as much attention. Chris Snelling hit a home run to right field to make it a 3-1 ballgame, starting the rally that would lead to the Phillies win. And while a solo home run might not seem like much, it was a triumphant moment for people like me who have been rooting for Snelling for the better part of ten years. And really, anyone who knows any part of his story should be rooting for this kid. The former Mariner prospect’s career has been derailed by injuries, but he hasn’t lost the quirky personality or love for baseball that made rational analysts form the Cult of Doyle.

In an era where media conglomerates won’t stop telling us what is wrong with baseball, Chris Snelling launching a ball into the right field seats is everything that is right about baseball. Long live Doyle.

Without a doubt, Alex Rodriguez is one of the greatest baseball players of all time. He’s a hall of fame talent with a tremendous career behind him despite only being 32 years old. He’s got a shot at the all time home run record, is the highest paid player in the game, and plays on the biggest stage in baseball every night. However, despite all his ability and his impressive career performances, he’s also become the mainstream poster boy for an “unclutch” player. His disastrous performances in the 2005 and 2006 playoffs have been well documented, and he’s heard about his failures in the clutch for years, even if they weren’t always justified.

Well, if you take a look at the Win Probability leaderboard and sort by clutch performance, you’ll notice a familiar name currently posting the worst performance in high leverage situations of any hitter in baseball. Yep, there he is, again sitting atop a list that he’d rather never hear mentioned again. And, while it’s early, the ten plate appearances he’s had in situations where the LI has been greater than 1.50 show that he’s lived up to the reputation during the first two weeks of the season.

From his play log:

April 12th, Top 8, 2 out, 1st and 2nd, up 4-3: Alex Rodriguez struck out swinging
April 2nd, Bottom 9, 2 out, 1st and 2nd, down 5-2: Alex Rodriguez struck out swinging
April 3rd, Bottom 6, 0 out, 2nd and 3rd, down 2-1: Alex Rodriguez struck out swinging
April 14th, Top 8, 2 out, 1st and 3rd, down 8-7: Alex Rodriguez reached on an FC
April 3rd, Bottom 4, 0 out, 1st, down 1-0: Alex Rodriguez flew out to second base
April 13th, Top 1, 1 out, 1st and 2nd, 0-0: Alex Rodriguez grounded into a double play
April 1st, Bottom 4, 1 out, 1st, 1-1: Alex Rodriguez grounded into a double play
April 7th, Bottom 3, 2 out, 1st and 3rd, up 2-1: Alex Rodriguez reached on an FC
April 8th, Top 3, 0 out, 1st, 2-2: Alex Rodriguez struck out looking
April 1st, Bottom 7, 0 out, no one, 2-2: Alex Rodriguez singled to right field

It’s only ten plate appearances, but it’s ten fairly miserable plate appearances. Four strikeouts, two double plays, a couple of fielders choices, and a lone single. He made 11 outs in these 10 trips to the plate and lowered his team’s chance of winning by a combined 58.4%. So far, this season, Alex Rodriguez has been a problem when he had a chance to help his team the most. This fits right into the narrative that has been told about him for years.

However, I absolutely have to note that this is not a continuation of any real trend. Thanks to the addition of leverage splits on his Baseball Reference player card, we can see that A-Rod has actually performed better in high leverage situations over his career than he has in low or medium leverage situations. Over 1508 plate appearances with an LI of 1.50 or greater, Rodriguez has hit .307/.393/.590, marginally better than his career line of .306/.389/.578. That includes being a monster in high leverage situations last year, posting a .349/.439/.706 mark over 132 plate appearances.

No one should draw any conclusions from the first 10 high leverage at-bats of Alex’s Rodriguez 2008 season, especially in light of his career performances. I had to chuckle, however, when I checked out the clutch ratings this morning and saw a familiar name sitting at the bottom. I’m guessing this will be a moniker he’s going to have to fight his entire career.

With the great addition of pitch type and velocity numbers here on FanGraphs, as well as the proliferation of Pitch F/X data, we’ve seen some great analysis of pitchers and the potential causes for their success and failure. In particular, there has been a decent amount of discussion about Barry Zito and his loss of velocity this season. However, Zito’s not the only one who has seen his fastball drop significantly, and among that group is Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander.

In 2006, the only starting pitcher in baseball with a higher velocity average on his fastball was Felix Hernandez, who clipped him 95.2 MPH to 95.1 MPH. Last year, Verlander’s fastball averaged 94.8 MPH, ranking him behind just Felix and A.J. Burnett. There was no question about it – Verlander was a power pitcher with a great fastball and one of the emerging young stars in baseball.

However, with the calendar flipping to 2008, something has changed. In his first three starts of the year, Justin Verlander has averaged just 91.9 MPH on his fastball, a 3 MPH decline on his main weapon. Instead of lighting up radar guns with Felix and Burnett, he’s now throwing as hard as Jair Jurrjens and Nick Blackburn. That’s less impressive company, with no offense intended to either youngster. This isn’t just a normal early season blip, either – Verlander’s down 5 MPH compared to what he was throwing in April of 2007.

The velocity loss has clearly had an impact on Verlander’s performance so far. His walk rate is up, his strikeout rate is down, and he’s giving up more home runs to boot. That’s a rough combination, and helps explain the 5.73 FIP he’s posted during the first 19 innings of his 2008 season. While the Tigers as a team have struggled coming out of the gates, perhaps no performance is as worrying as Verlander’s. If his fastball continues to sit around 92 MPH for the remainder of the season, he’s going to have to make some significant adjustments to be the frontline starter that Detroit was counting on.

Corey Patterson has always been thought of as a guy with tremendous potential. From 1999 to 2001, Baseball America ranked him as the 16th, 3rd, and 2nd best prospect in baseball respectively. The physical talents were obvious; terrific athleticism, quick bat, legitimate home run power, and serious speed from a guy playing a premium defensive position well. However, Patterson struggled to refine his approach at the plate, and by repeatedly chasing pitches out of the strike zone, he made himself a fairly easy out for opposing pitchers. If you can’t make contact, it is tough to be an offensive asset. For seven years, Patterson simply didn’t hit the ball often enough to live up to his natural talent, which led to him being bounced out of both Chicago and Baltimore and finding himself as an unwanted free agent this winter.

After an offseason of rejection, the Cincinnati Reds offered him a minor league contract on March 3rd, giving him a chance to fight for a roster spot in spring training. After they decided to send Jay Bruce to Triple-A to start the year, Patterson found himself with a regular job, and with the way his 2008 season has started (.57 WPA/LI and the Reds best hitter to date), he may just have found a home where he can remind people of the player they thought he would be.

It all starts with his strikeout rate. Look at the graph of his contact ability throughout his career.

During his time in Chicago, he was a strikeout machine. As you can see, this is something he’s clearly worked on improving, as the line from his 2005 to 2008 strikeout rate shows a huge decline. So far this year, he’s struck out two times in 46 plate appearances. That’s pretty remarkable for a guy with a career K% of 22.7%. His current K% of 4.8% puts him in a group with noted contact kings Casey Kotchman and Placido Polanco. When you look at the pitch data summary from his Baseball-Reference page, you can see the difference. Even though he’s seeing less strikes than in any other season, he’s only swinging at 72% of those pitches in the strike zone, compared to a career average of 81%.

By being more selective in which pitches to swing at, Patterson has managed to put himself in positions to hit pitches he can do something with, and that’s been manifest in his performance. Of his 11 hits, five are doubles and four are home runs, giving him a .405 Isolated Slugging Percentage that ranks fifth in all of baseball. Patterson’s early season performance isn’t going to be sustained at this level (a 7% swinging strike rate is impossible to keep up), but there are legitimate reasons to believe that he’s adopted a new approach at the plate, and his continued contact ability could be just the ticket to stardom that people have been projecting on Patterson for most of this decade.

Hey all. My name is David Cameron, and I’m thrilled to have been invited by David Appelman to join in the great work he’s been doing here at FanGraphs. You may have read some things I’ve written elsewhere, either at USSMariner, The Hardball Times, or Baseball Prospectus. I’m excited to be here, not only because the data that David has made available has been a huge asset to fans and researchers alike, but also because I look forward to seeing how we can explore the information available here, create some unique commentary, and build a community that rivals the quality of the knowledge found on this site. I’ll be hanging out in the comment threads regularly, so feel free to ask any questions or make comments there, and we’ll get the discussion started.

For my first post here, I wanted to take a look at what has to be the most exceptional story 2008 has brought us so far – the unbelievable return of Gabe Kapler. A year ago, Kapler was the manager of the Greenville Drive, a Red Sox affiliate in the Class A South Atlantic League. At 31-years-old, he had retired from his playing career and was beginning a coaching career in the lowest rung of full season minor league baseball. He’d spent the previous few years bouncing between reserve roles and playing in Japan, and after a torn Achilles in 2006, it looked like he would never get a chance to fulfill the promise he showed as a prospect with the Tigers in the 90s.

However, unwilling to let his on field career end prematurely, he declared himself a free agent this winter and landed a contract from the Milwaukee Brewers. With a hole in center field while Mike Cameron serves out his suspension, Kapler has… well, to say he’s made the most of his opportunity would be the understatement of the year. After going 3 for 4 with a couple of doubles and a home run last night, he is now 11 for 26 with two doubles, four home runs, two walks, and a stolen base just for good measure. He leads the majors in batting average and slugging percentage (at .423 and .962 respectively), and his 0.71 WPA/LI ties him with Casey Kotchman, and just behind Albert Pujols, as the fourth best hitter per plate appearance in baseball. Kapler has been the Brewers savior as Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder struggle to start the season, and one of the main reasons the Brewers are 8-4 in their first dozen games.

In all likelyhood, this will go down as the best two week stretch of Kapler’s playing career, but it’s two weeks he wouldn’t have experienced had he stayed retired.