Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Pittsburgh | 12:35 ET
Tim Lincecum (31.2 IP, 89 xFIP-, -0.1 WAR) faces Gerrit Cole (39.0 IP, 94 xFIP-, 0.1 WAR). The latter has recorded the fourth-highest average fastball velocity thus far amongst qualified starters, at 95.5 mph. The former is once against conceding more runs (over 1.5 of them every nine innings) than his defense-independent numbers would suggest. Note with regard to this game that it will be played in front of probably the league’s most excellent center-field camera. Also note that it’s possible the Giants broadcast will opt for the off-center camera instead.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

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An essential aspect of any projection system that’s worth a damn is the integration of minor-league data into same — and the translation of that minor-league data to its major-league equivalent (MLE). The Steamer projection system, being worth several of damns, produces MLEs for what appears to be almost every minor-leaguer who exists — and probably some who even don’t.

Yesterday, I asked Steamer owner and operator Jared Cross for the MLE hitting data that’s currently being utilized for the production of Steamer’s rest-of-season and updated forecasts. What follows are four leaderboards featuring that data — specifically, of the MLE batting leaders by various, hopefully useful, criteria.

The first two leaderboards feature minor-league batting leaders (first all of them, and then just prospect-aged one) by translated wOBA. The second pair of leaderboards feature minor-league leaders by translated FIB* — a wOBA estimator (discussed here) which accounts only for home runs, walks, and strikeouts and which has some value insofar as those metrics become stable at least 1,000 plate appearances before BABIP (which metric influences wOBA considerably).

Below the aforementioned leaderboards, followed by some brief comments of varying quality.

MLE Leaderboard: All Minor-League Hitters by wOBA
Below are the top-20 minor-league batters by translated wOBA, according to Steamer (min. 50 PA).

MLE Leaderboard: Prospect-Age Minor-League Hitters by wOBA
Here are the top-20 minor-league batters aged 24-or-under by MLE wOBA, according to Steamer (min. 50 PA).

MLE Leaderboard: All Minor-League Hitters by FIB*
Here are the top-20 minor-league batters by MLE FIB* — i.e. a wOBA estimator which accounts only for home runs, walks, and strikeouts — according to Steamer (min. 50 PA):

MLE Leaderboard: Prospect-Age Minor-League Hitters by FIB*
Here are the top-20 minor-league batters aged 24-or-under by MLE FIB* — i.e. a wOBA estimator which accounts only for home runs, walks, and strikeouts — according to Steamer (min. 50 PA):

Brief Comments of Varying Quality:

• With regard to overall MLE wOBA leader Kyle Roller, here’s who Kyle Roller is: an eighth-round selection by the Yankees in 2010 out of East Carolina University. And here’s who else: a prospect who’s always (a) been old for his levels and (b) produced above-average offensive lines relative to his leagues.
• Despite leading all prospect-age hitters by translated wOBA, Seattle infield prospect Gabriel Noriega’s line at Triple-A Tacoma is also mostly informed by batted-ball outcomes. Indeed, he hasn’t recorded an above-average offensive line since 2008, in the Rookie-level Appalachian League.
• That said, other Seattle infield prospect Chris Taylor — 16th among all minor-league hitters by translated wOBA and just fifth among prospect-age minor-league hitters — received the 38th-best WAR projection among rookie-eligible players before the season.
• Among the top prospect-age hitters by translated FIB* is Jose Ramirez, which Cleveland infield prospect (a) was recently promoted to the majors and (b) JD Sussman considered briefly in Monday’s edition of the Prospect Watch.
• Do you even Mookie Betts?

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Houston at Detroit | 19:08 ET
Brett Oberholtzer (32.0 IP, 108 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR) faces Robbie Ray (29.1 IP, 18.3% K, 4.4% BB at Triple-A). The latter was notably acquired from Washington this offseason (along with Ian Krol and Steve Lombardozzi) in exchange for right-hander Doug Fister — a move which seemed to represent a miscalculation of Fister’s value. Owing to a pair of spring injuries, Fister actually won’t make his season debut until Friday — i.e. three days after Ray makes his major-league debut tonight.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Detroit Radio.

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Episode 446
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses a documentary concerning the murder of his grandfather that’s featured this coming weekend at the Maryland Film Festival.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 50 min play time.)

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at Washington | 19:05 ET
Zack Greinke (35.1 IP, 56 xFIP-, 0.5 WAR) faces Jordan Zimmermann (33.0 IP, 81 xFIP-, 0.6 WAR). One notes, in addition to the particularly compelling pitching matchup, that the visiting club here currently features no fewer than four field players who’ve recorded a win or more — which is probably the highest number on any single team, were one to examine the matter in more depth.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
San Francisco at Atlanta | 13:35 ET
Madison Bumgarner (33.2 IP, 91 xFIP-, 0.3 WAR) faces Alex Wood (40.0 IP, 78 xFIP-, 0.6 WAR). The latter, despite recording a single-game 5.79 xFIP in his most recent start, has still produced the 16th-best xFIP- of all 108 qualified starters. The Atlantans as a club, meanwhile, have posted a park-adjusted home-run rate, bullpen xFIP-, and defensive-runs figure all greater than a standard deviation above league average thus far.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: San Francisco Radio or Television.

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Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated and MLB.TV Free Game
Seattle at Houston | 16:10 ET
Hisashi Iwakuma (N/A) faces Dallas Keuchel (30.1 IP, 74 xFIP-, 0.6 WAR). The former makes his season debut after losing the first month of the season to an injured finger. The latter has recorded one of the top swinging-strike rates among qualified starters, largely on the strength of his slider.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Houston Television?

Complete Schedule
Here’s the complete and very sortable table for all of today’s games. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and also the rest of the internet.

Away		SP	Tm.	Gm.	Tm.	SP		Home	Time
Michael Wacha	STL	10	2	6	5	3	CHN	Jake Arrieta*	13:05
Jake Odorizzi	TB	4	7	7	5	10	NYA	Masahiro Tanaka	13:05
Tommy Milone	OAK	0	5	4	3	7	BOS	Jon Lester	13:35
Wei-Yin Chen	BAL	5	4	3	4	0	MIN	Kevin Correia	14:10
Hisashi Iwakuma*	SEA	8	5	7	6	8	HOU	Dallas Keuchel	16:10
Scott Carroll*	CHA	6	4	6	5	7	CLE	Justin Masterson	18:05
R.A. Dickey	TOR	7	6	7	8	7	PIT	Francisco Liriano	19:05
Tanner Roark	WAS	3	6	3	2	2	PHI	A.J. Burnett	19:05
Drew Smyly*	DET	8	3	6	2	7	KC	Danny Duffy*	19:10
Paul Maholm	LAN	0	6	4	8	5	MIA	Jacob Turner*	19:10
Yovani Gallardo	MIL	2	6	5	4	8	CIN	Johnny Cueto	19:10
Ryan Vogelsong	SF	0	7	4	9	4	ATL	Julio Teheran	19:10
Jenrry Mejia	NYN	7	2	5	8	2	COL	Franklin Morales	20:10
Brandon McCarthy	AZ	8	4	7	3	7	SD	Ian Kennedy	20:40
Matt Harrison*	TEX	6	2	6	10	6	LAA	Garrett Richards	21:05

To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.

Episode 445
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the mostly audible guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 3 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated Game
Washington at Philadelphia | 19:05 ET
Stephen Strasburg (34.0 IP, 55 xFIP-, 1.0 WAR) faces Cliff Lee (41.0 IP, 66 xFIP-, 1.3 WAR) — which pairing the reader will recognize as one of the league’s most compelling possible ones. A brief inspection of the former’s player profile reveals that the Strasburg has actually conceded about twice as many runs as his defense-independent numbers would suggest. Said player profile also reveals that Strasburg has produced a 31.0% swinging-strike rate by means of his changeup thus far — greater than twice the typical league average for that pitch.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Washington Radio.

Read the rest of this entry »

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by viscount of the internet Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

Most Highly Rated and MLB.TV Free Game
Atlanta at Miami | 19:10 ET
Ervin Santana (27.2 IP, 57 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR) faces Henderson Alvarez (29.2 IP, 98 xFIP-, 0.4 WAR). The former has been a revelation thus far, having added what appears to be an entirely serviceable changeup to his repertoire — which transformation Jeff Sullivan documented in some depth on Monday. He faces a Miami lineup that has done quite a lot of “hitting” over the first two games of the series, producing single-game wOBAs of .440 and .488, respectively.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta Radio.

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