Episode 372
Derrick Goold is the championship beat writer of the Cardinals for the St. Louis Post Dispatch. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 46 min play time.)
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Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per ZiPS
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per ZiPS
In May, the author examined those hitters and pitchers whose projections had most improved, up till that point, according to the Steamer and ZiPS systems. This week, in the Notes, we’re revisiting that effort.
In yesterday’s edition: the league’s most improved hitters, according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest increase in wOBA projection.” Today: that same thing, but for ZiPS.
Note: only players with both a preseason and rest-of-season projection have been considered. Other note: any player either (a) presently absent from a major-league roster or (b) with fewer than 60 projected plate appearances remaining has been omitted from consideration.
5. Mike Carp, Cornerman, Boston
ZiPS (Pre): 506 PA, .239/.304/.394 (.286 BABIP), .305 wOBA, 97 wRC+
ZiPS (RoS): 105 PA, .274/.335/.471 (.331 BABIP), .350 wOBA, 117 wRC+
Notes: Owing to a switch in parks from Safeco to Fenway, Carp’s raw wOBA differential is greater proportionately than his wRC+ differential — which is what makes him fifth on this list, as opposed to second. Still, he’s been excellent for Boston. ZiPS, which is rather aggressive about integrating particularly low or high seasonal BABIPs into rest-of-season projections, appears to remain rather aggressive about integrating Carp’s rather high .410 BABIP into his rest-of-season projection.
The Fringe Five is a weekly exercise (introduced in April) wherein the author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own heart to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.
Central to this exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe. The author recognizes that the word has different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of this column, however — and for reasons discussed more thoroughly in a recent edition of the Five — the author has considered eligible for the Five any prospect who was absent from all of three notable preseason top-100 prospect lists.
That said, it should also be noted that in cases where the collective enthusiasm regarding a player’s talent becomes very fevered — like how the enthusiasm collectively right now for Philadelphia third-base prospect Maikel Franco is very fevered, for example — that will likely affect said player’s likelihood of appearing among the Five, given that the purpose of the series, at some level, is to identify prospects who are demonstrating promise above what one might expect given their current reputations within the prospect community.
With that said, here are this week’s Fringe Five:
Mookie Betts, 2B, Boston (Profile)
If Mookie Betts were literally on fire, that would both (a) be terrible and (b) require the immediate attention of emergency services. Fortunately — for all of us, for Betts himself — he’s just figuratively on fire. By way of illustration, consider: in 28 plate appearances since last week’s edition of the Five, Betts has recorded two home runs, a 6:2 walk-to-strikeout ratio, and six stolen bases on as many attempts. Overall, Betts has posted walk and strikeout rates of 10.6% and 11.4%, respectively, four home runs, and a 100% success rate on his 15 stolen-base attempts over 32 games and 132 plate appearances — this, from what appears to the 11th-youngest player in the High-A Carolina league.
Episode 371
Dave Cameron is both (a) the managing editor of FanGraphs and (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses baseball’s waiver system (generally) and the Adam Rosales situation (specifically).
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 36 min play time.)
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per Steamer
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Most Improved Hitters So Far, Per Steamer
In May, the author examined those hitters and pitchers whose projections had most improved, up till that point, according to the Steamer and ZiPS systems. This week, in the Notes, we’ll revisit that effort.
In this edition: the league’s most improved hitters, according to Steamer — where “most improved” is defined as “greatest increase in wOBA projection.”*
Note: only players with both a preseason and rest-of-season projection have been considered. Other note: any player absent currently from a major-league roster has been omitted from consideration.
5. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Oakland
Steamer (Pre): 403 PA, .250/.315/.421 (.279 BABIP), .319 wOBA, 103 wRC+
Steamer (RoS): 166 PA, .264/.336/.441 (.294 BABIP), .340 wOBA, 117 wRC+
Notes: Despite hitting quite poorly in the first half of 2012, Donaldson produced a slash-line of .290/.356/.489 (.323 BABIP) and 136 wRC+ over 194 plate appearances in the second half. The third baseman has improved slighly even upon that in 2013 and is projected to post end-of-season WAR totals of 5.8 and 5.9 by ZiPS and Steamer, respectively.
The author attended a Double-A Eastern League game on Sunday between the Richmond Flying Squirrels (a San Francisco affiliate) and New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Toronto) in Manchester, NH (box). What follows is a brief examination of two Giants prospects from same.
The author had no intention of more closely examining — had, in fact, scarcely heard of — third-base prospect Adam Duvall prior to Sunday’s game. And yet, one finds his name here in bold type, suggesting that something of that sort is in the offing.
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Danny Salazar Night in America
2. Other Notable Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Danny Salazar Night in America
The Purpose of This Post
The purpose of this post is to announce that Cleveland right-hander Danny Salazar, of the Santo Domingo Salazars, is starting tonight (Monday) at 8:10pm ET against Minnesota — a game which is available gratis, care of MLB.TV.
Episode 370
Joe Panik is a 22-year-old middle-infield prospect — with excellent control of the strike zone — currently playing for San Francisco’s Double-A affiliate Richmond. He’s also the guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio, recorded live on tape in Manchester, New Hampshire.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio after the jump. (Approximately 11 min play time.)
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Analysis from the Author’s Grandfather
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Analysis from the Author’s Grandfather
The author, as he writes this, is presently sitting across a breakfast table from his 92-year-old grandfather, a man who not only has opinions, but whose opinions themselves have opinions.
What follows is a small collection of that same grandfather’s opinions on the Boston Red Sox and AL East.
Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.
1. Regarding Alex Wood’s Resume, Thus Far
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Complete Schedule
Regarding Alex Wood’s Resume, Thus Far
Introduction
Left-hander Alex Wood, 22, starts tonight (Saturday) against Miami at 7:10pm ET. What follows is a brief examination of his impressive, if short, professional resume.
