This is a guest post from Alex Lewin of Baseball Info Solutions, with contributions from Mr. Lewin’s colleague William Cohen.
Theoretically, a team deciding to sign a player to a multi-year contract should feel confident that the player will provide significant value over those two or more years. These contracts are often times a gamble for the club handing them out, as the contract is guaranteed money, and even if the team holds an option, there are still usually expensive buyouts attached. There have been plenty of times when a long-term free-agent contract has worked out beyond the first year: Greg Maddux, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Randy Johnson are just a few names that have produced well after receiving multi-year contracts at some point in their careers. While some position players and starting pitchers have performed at the same level, if not better, after receiving these types of contracts, middle relievers and closers have not.
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