A Red Sox fan asks the big questions.

Boston (9) at New York AL (10) | 16:10 ET
Regarding Something Bill James Said
Bill James has said — somewhere, at some point in time — something to the effect of “We’re frequently interested in things that other people find interesting.”

An Example of What James Means by That
Murder cases — like how people like murder cases.

On the Relevance of That Statement to This Game
Despite the fact that, as of this morning, the Red Sox have something like a 95% chance of making the playoffs, a great portion of New Englanders are wringing their hands anxiously regarding the Sox and their fate.

An Example of Said Handwringing
A Boston Globe photo slideshow entitled “Who’s to Blame?”

Another Example of That Handwringing
This video debate over whether the Sox are dirty and doggy enough.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Red Sox Television.

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The Pixies’ 1987 ode to the Allen Craig/Matt Holliday situation.

Chicago NL (4) at St. Louis (3) | 20:15 ET
Obligatory Playoff-Race Note
The Cardinals of St. Louis are currently 2.0 games behind the Braves of Atlanta with six games remaining, giving them (i.e. the Cards) about a 24% chance of making the playoffs, per Cool Standings.

Something You May Know
Something you may know is that, with Matt Holliday (hand) currently out, that Allen Craig has been playing regularly in his (i.e. Holliday’s) absence.

Something You May Not Know
Craig, who’s hitting .312/.359/.529 (.347 BABIP), 150 wRC+ in 207 plate apperances this season, actually has a better rest-of-season ZiPS projection than Holliday.

Something You May Not Know, Part II
Here are those lines, specifically.

Craig: .286/.333/.571 (.300 BABIP), .387 wOBA

Holliday: .300/.364/.500 (.333 BABIP), .376 wOBA

One Caveat Regarding Those Projections
One caveat (of the probably many extant caveats) regarding those projections is that Craig has been protected from righties a little bit. Only two-thirds of the pitchers he’s faced are righties; for an everyday player, that figure would probably be above 80%.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Cubs Television.

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Georg Cantor (a) discovered multiple infinities and (b) went insane.

Tampa Bay (7) at New York AL (10) | 19:05 ET
A Note Regarding Your Taste
If your taste, reader, is for the baseball game with the most immediate of playoff consequences, then tonight’s contest between New York NL and St. Louis (below) ought to be your preference.

Why That Is
Why that is, is because owing to yet another Cardinal victory and another Brave loss last night, the former sits only 1.5 games behind the latter for the NL Wild Card.

What That Means in Terms of Percentages
In terms of percentages — again, per Cool Standings — St. Louis now has just under a 35% chance of making the postseason; Atlanta, a 64% chance.

As for This Game
As for this game, it offers a team (i.e. the Rays) with less of a playoff chance (4.5%), but with the added draw of left-hander Matt Moore’s first major-league start.

Matt Moore’s Minor-League Line
Here’s Matt Moore’s line between Double- and Triple-A this season: 155.0 IP, ∞ K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9.

A Note a Matt Moore’s Line
Just looking at it now, it appears as though Matt Moore struck out infinity batters this season. Hadn’t realized that.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Rays Television.

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Almost certainly a metaphor.

New York NL (4) at St. Louis (3) | 20:15 ET
What the Deal Is
The deal with this game is that, after winning last night — but also letting the Braves win, too — that the Cardinals are 2.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race.

What That Means to Cool Standings
What that whole thing means to Cool Standings is that the Cardinals have about an 18% chance of making the playoffs.

The Cardinals’ Playoff Chances, A Brief History Of
Looking over the internet records, one finds that St. Louis’s odds of making the playoffs are the highest they’ve been since August 15th, when they (i.e. the playoff odds) were 20%.

The Cardinals’ Playoff Chances in Context
To get a sense of how good the Cardinals’ chances are, consider that the Rays’ — who everyone’s freaking about — consider that their chances of making the postseason are less than 9%.

Other Things People Are Freaking About
All of the things, all of the time.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Mets Television.

Two Other Games
Tampa Bay (7) at New York AL (10) | 13:05 ET
In which AL East titans clash and, just as with the real Titans, are gruesomely slayed by the Olympic gods — i.e. Must-See TV.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Rays Television.

Tampa Bay (7) at New York AL (10) | 19:05 ET
In which the second verse is the same as the first.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Rays Television.

Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.8.

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Episode Eighty-Four
In which “the end” is a topic of conversation.

Headlines
Official Positions — Second Guessed!
Wild Card Races — Considered Momentarily!
The Nationals 2012 Rotation — Waxed Poetic On!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 35 min play time.)

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For the first four-plus months of the season, Chicago White Sock Brent Morel played pretty similarly to how one might have expected Brent Morel to play, striking out rarely and walking even more rarely while displaying what is referred euphemistically to as “gap” power.

Over the past month, however, he’s basically turned into a third base-playing Ian Kinsler, walking and striking out at about the same rate while hitting home runs at a pretty excellent pace, but with the low-ish BABIP that Kinsler routinely posts.

To wit:

Because you’re a nerd, you’re definitely prepared to inform the author about the sample size with which we’re dealing here and its relative small-ness. Please understand that your warnings are being considered, one-by-one, as carefully and lovingly as possible. And, indeed, it’s true: even James Loney can look good for 100 PAs at a time.

It’s worth noting, though, that it’s not just Morel’s slash line we’re looking at. The other numbers here become reliable with smaller samples — samples such that, even if we were to regress to the reliable sample size with Morel’s career numbers, we’d still be seeing what basically amounts to a different guy. Speaking anecdotally, that’s a less common thing.

There are zero hard conclusions to be drawn from this. But I, personally, will be watching Morel with more interest over the remainder of the season and into next.

Thank to you Baseball Reference for their sweet game logs.

Topical, science-y.

Tampa Bay (7) at New York AL (10) | 19:05 ET
A Fact Regarding the Tampa Bay Rays
Entering play Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays are a mere two games behind Boston in the AL Wild Card race.

A Second Fact Regarding the Tampa Bays Rays
Entering play Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays have an 8.9% chance of making the playoffs, per Cool Standings.

In Terms of Yankee Pitching
In terms of Yankee pitching, Ivan Nova (151.1 IP, 102 xFIP-) is pitching for the Yankees.

Regarding Ivan Nova
Per the data from Baseball Info Solutions, Nova’s changeup usage is down from 2010 (10.6% to 4.6%), but his slider usage is up (2.1% to 11.2%).

Regarding Ivan Nova, Part II
Per the data from Pitch F/x, Nova’s changeup usage is only slightly down (9.9% to 7.9 %), but his slider (0.0% to 2.9%) and cutter (0.0% to 2.6%) usage has increased.

Carson Cistulli’s Guess
Carson Cistulli’s guess is that Pitch F/x is classifying Nova’s new slider as sometimes a slider and, other times, a cutter.

Carson Cistulli’s Second Guess
Carson Cistulli’s second guess is frequently (a) directed at his own self and (b) debilitating.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Rays Television.

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Red is the color both of passion and arrows.

Epicurus didn’t start an entire ethical philosophy based on maximizing pleasure while minimizing pain not to have somebody, at some point in the future, develop a similar thing specifically for watching baseball. Accordingly, the aim of this edition of the Leaderboards of Pleasure is to aid the reader in liberating himself from the shackles of anxiety.

In so doing, the reader will learn that:

• Cleveland’s second baseman Jason Kipnis, besides mildly resembling teammate Travis Hafner, has been good at “hitting” so far in his brief major-league career, slashing .287/.345/.554 (.348 BABIP) with 151 RC+ in his first 110 plate appearances.

• Toronto’s Brett Lawrie continues to out-Jose Bautista the actual Jose Bautista.

• Milwaukee right-hander Zack Greinke, despite his absence from all Cy Young consideration, leads all qualified starters in strikeout rate (28.8%), strikeout/walk differential (22.9%), xFIP (2.46), and SIERA (2.40) — which is to say, he’s likely the best starter on a per-inning basis.

1. Team NERD Leaderboard
2. Underrated Player Leaderboard
3. Player NERD Leaderboard
4. Pitcher NERD Leaderboard

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Only one budget travel author can help the Cardinals now.

St. Louis (3) at Philadelphia (3) | 19:05 ET
A Thing the Author Didn’t Know
A thing the author didn’t know is how the Cardinals have played their way into Wild Card contention.

Regarding Said Contention
After their defeat Sunday night of Philadelphia — and Atlanta’s loss to the Mets — St. Louis is three games behind Atlanta in the NL Wild Card race, giving them an 8.1% chance of winning same Wild Card berth.

Regarding Said Contention, Part II
The Cardinals’ current chances at the Wild Card are the highest they’ve been since August 17th.

If Rick Steves Wrote a Book for the Cardinals
If noted travel author Rick Steves wrote a book to help the Cardinals, it’d be called Major League Playoffs Through the Back Door.

If an Adult-Film Actress Wrote a Book for the Cardinals
If an adult-film actress wrote a book to help the Cardinals, it’d have a title pretty similar to Rick Steves’ book.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Phillies Radio.

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Mike Trout or Matt Wieters: which is more of a street-wise Hercules, you think?

Tampa Bay (7) at Boston (9) | 13:35 ET
Playoff Race Status Update
Even with Tampa Bay’s victory last night, Cool Standings still gives the Red Sox a 94.1% chance of making the playoffs; Tampa Bay, just 5.4%.

Regarding This Game, Specifically
With David Price (210.1 IP, 3.02 SIERA) facing Tim Wakefield (145.2, 4.49), Tampa Bay likely has the better chance of winning.

Regarding This Game, Odds of Victory
The money line for this game is currently set at about -135 for Tampa Bay and +125 for Boston.

Regarding This Game, Odds of Victory, Part II
That suggests about a 56.5% chance of winning for Tampa Bay; about 43.5% for Boston.

Playoff Race Speculation, Beginning with the Words “In Conclusion”
In conclusion, Tampa Bay has about a 57% chance of entering the week behind only two games in the Wild Card race.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Red Sox Television.

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