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One Night Only: A Mountain Out of a Cahill

Cinco de Mayo is Spanish for “the Fifth of Mayo.”

Feel free to use that tidbit of information early and often.

Texas at Oakland | Wednesday, May 05 | 3:35 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rangers: Colby Lewis (R)
32.2 IP, 10.47 K/9, 3.58 BB/9, .280 BABIP, 38.8% GB, 5.7% HR/FB, 3.61 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 3.99 (CHONE) 4.39 (ZiPS)

A’s: Trevor Cahill (R)
178.2 IP, 4.53 K/9, 3.63 BB/9, .276 BABIP, 47.8% GB, 13.2% HR/FB, 4.92 xFIP (2009)
Projected FIP: 4.56 (FAN) 5.08 (CHONE) 5.05 (ZiPS)

This Is Not About Colby Lewis
Even though it’ll probably seem like it most of the time, Colby Lewis will not, in fact, be the only guy on the field this afternoon in Oakland. In fact, there are a couple-few players who — despite lacking Lewis’s direct connection to the godhead — have actually managed to distinguish themselves as worthy of the baseballing enthusiast’s attention.

Not the least of these players is Oakland starter Trevor Cahill. Cahill — along with other young Oaklanders Brett Anderson and Andrew Bailey — made his debut last year, and was actually rated as the organization’s number-two prospect (behind Anderson) in Baseball America’s 2009 Prospect Handbook. Despite having thrown only 37 innings of ball above Double-A before 2009, Cahill’s excellent K rate (9.96 K/9) over that time — combined with Oakland’s youth movement — created a space for him in Oakland’s rotation. Back in December, our man Dave Goleblahblah justified the confidence the A’s would’ve had in his success:

Sure, Cahill’s command sometimes abandoned him. But he drew as much praise as any pitching prospect in the game. And why not? In addition to all of those Ks, Cahill was a groundball machine. He burned worms at a 56.4% clip in 2007 and kept the ball on the ground 61.5% of the time in 2008. Generally, strikeouts and groundballs have an inverse relationship: one comes at the expense of the other. It’s rare to find a young pitcher so adept at making batters whiff or chop the ball into the dirt when they do manage to make contact.

In light of those expectations, it’s fair to qualify last year as a bit of a disappointment. After having missed a lot of bats at lower levels, Cahill posted a mark of only 4.53 K/9 in 2009. Nor was his walk rate of 3.63 BB/9 anywhere near low enough to let him be effective in the mold of Carlos Silva circa 2004-2008, or even Rick Porcello of last year.

The question for this start — for Cahill, in general — is whether he’s able to get some breathing room between his strikeout and walk numbers. Perhaps the answer is in altering his repertoire. As resident cyborg Dave Allen wrote last year:

Like many ground ball pitchers Cahill throws a lot of fastballs (almost 70% of the time), and the problem is he has not been very good at getting them in the zone. His fastballs are in the permissive pfx zone 50% of the time, compared to the 55% for the average fastball. This is one of those things that seems like a small difference but is not. The variation is fastball zone percentage is narrow, so 50% is quite low, and over the course of the whole year those extra balls really pile up.

A little snooping over at Texas Leaguers reveals that, last year, Cahill got swing-and-misses on 5.5% of his two-seam and only 3.3% of his four-seam fastballs. Though his changepiece generated whiffs 13.5% of the time, he threw it too rarely to bring his overall whiff rate to league average.

What’s peculiar is the almost complete absence of Cahill’s knuckle-curve, a pitch Baseball America described in 2009 as “nasty… a swing-and-miss pitch with hard downward movement.” Texas Leaguers shows a curve, but the whiff rates are modest, and the drop, though fine, isn’t otherworldly.

Okay, It’s a Little Bit About Colby lewis
The reader might not have access to ESPN Insider, which means the reader might not know that ESPN’s Jason Grey — while less immodest in his prose stylings on the matter — is also smitten with Mr. Colby Lewis. Gray has been riding the CPL train since at least March 9th, when, after attending an Angels/Rangers spring training game, he wrote of Lewis:

He worked two innings Monday. He did allow a solo homer to Mike Napoli (a big bomb to center field on a hanging curve), but was otherwise impressive, throwing 20 of his 26 pitches for strikes, working very quickly and efficiently, and being aggressive. He reached 92 mph a few times and had very good cutting action, and also showed he could throw his fastball to both sides of the plate. He mixed in a curveball that ranged from 74-79 mph that was sharp at times, but a bit inconsistent. He also mixed in some good 82-83 mph sliders, and even ran it in the back door against a few lefty hitters. There was a lot to like, and it was hard to believe I was looking at the same pitcher I saw a few years ago. I snagged him for $4 in the AL LABR (League of Alternative Baseball Reality) auction Saturday, and was happy then to do so. I’m even happier after seeing him Monday.

One of us! One of us!

All-Joy Alert
Three All-Joyers are likely to appear in this evening’s game: Mr. Lewis, Adam Rosales, Ryan Sweeney. Other All-Joyer Kurt Suzuki, unfortunately, is injuricated.

If I Had My Druthers
• Rosales, Suzuki, and Sweeney would all somehow turn a triple play together.
• Colby Lewis would somehow turn a triple play all by himself.
• He’d also turn the beat around.


One Night Only: Hail Cesar Valdez!

Before we delve into either the nitty or the gritty of tonight’s featured match-up, allow me to inform the reader that, had he read and obeyed this past Friday’s edition of One Night Only, he’d have been apprised of one of the killerest pitchers’ duels that is sure to occur this season. For it was this past Friday — a.k.a. CPL Fest 2010 — that Clifton Phifer Lee and Colby Phrigging Lewis pitched seven and nine innings of shutout baseball, respectively.

All of which is to say that One Night Only is here to help you. And also, Colby Lewis is a demigod.

[Note: Minor league numbers are courtesy of StatCorner. HR/BIA = Home Run per Ball in Air. MLB average for starters is 6.5%. MiLB average is I-don’t-know-what.]

Arizona at Houston | Monday, May 03 | 8:05 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
D-Backs: Cesar Valdez (R)
23.2 IP, 9.51 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, .328 BABIP, 56.2% GB, 12.0% HR/BIA, 3.75 FIP (Triple-A)
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 5.22 (CHONE) 5.36 (ZiPS)

Astros: Felipe Paulino (R)
21.2 IP, 6.23 K/9, 5.82 BB/9, .323 BABIP, 44.9% GB, 0.0% HR/FB, 5.41 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.54 (FAN) 4.75 (CHONE) 5.00 (ZiPS)

Persons of Interest
If there’s one thing baseball nerds the world over like, it’s the rent-free paradise that is a mother’s basement. But if there’s one other thing baseball nerds like, it’s the Major League debut of an interesting prospect. In the case of tonight’s Arizona/Houston contest, the prospect in question is Mr. Cesar Valdez.

In addition to probably being the distant relative of the man who frigging invented coffee, Valdez was ranked by our man on the scene Marc Hulet as the eight-best prospect in the Arizona system. If you read Hulet’s analysis of Valdez, you read words that looked almost a hundred percent like these:

Valdez is a soft-tosser whose best pitch is a change-up. His fastball sits in the mid-to-high-80s. Even so, he’s had success in the minors, although he hit a speed bump in ‘09 at triple-A (5.18 FIP in 19 games). The right-hander began the year in double-A, where he allowed 63 hits in 64.1 innings and posted a 3.00 FIP. He has good control (2.81 BB/9 in triple-A) but his strikeout rates are modest, as he pitches to contact due to his lack of a true out-pitch. Valdez does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and should produce a ground-ball rate around 50%. Because of his fringe-stuff, he could end up as a middle reliever.

Of course the words “ground-ball rate” alone are enough to prick up the ears of the armchair prospect maven. That said, there’s very possibly a startling development in the Cesar Valdez Story. In a recent edition of his Diamondback Notes, The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro wrote the following:

Diamondbacks farm director Mike Berger watched Valdez pitch on April 19 and came away impressed.

“When I saw him, I saw a wipeout sinker,” Berger said. “He had plus sinker and a change-up that acted like a split. He mowed through Sacramento. That sinker had real bottom to it. He was getting lots of swings and misses.”

Valdez throws his sinker in the 89-91 mph range, up from the 86-88 mph he was throwing in the fall league.

That latter range is the one off of which Hulet was very likely working. But if Valdez really is touching 90 mph now, and if his sinker is actually functioning as a swing-and-miss pitch, then there’s the distinct possibility that Valdez could impress.

One Other Note
Cole Gillespie was recalled last week from Triple-A Reno. He’s not only another of those guys on Hulet’s Top 10 list, but he’s also a player about whom I, personally, was quite bullish last summer. (Be warned: that article is flipping long. Just go to the end to read about Gillespie.)

If I Had My Druthers
• Cesar Valdez would avoid making me look like a fool.
• Felipe Paulino would stop making me looks like a fool.
• I would stop making my own self look like a fool.


FanGraphs Audio: Ryan Howard Gets Some Benjamins

Episode Twenty-Six
In which the panel beats a near-dead horse.

Headlines
Ryan Howard: Ya Heard?!?
CPL Watch: Lee and Lewis Do Battle
Carlos Silva: What Gives?
… and other mind-bending illusions!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Matthew Carruth, Full-Time Lover (of Words)

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Audio: Fantasy “Friday” w/ Joura, Sarris

Episode Twenty-Five
In which the panel is only semi-late for the relevant date.

Headlines
Relievers and Entrance LI: Harbinger of Future Closers?
Mat Latos and Felipe Paulino: Are Disappointing You.
Trade Bait: Proposals from the Front Lines.
… and other searing proclamations!

Featuring
Brian Joura, Staten Island Representin’
Eno Sarris, Some Other Place Representin’

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

Read the rest of this entry »


One Night Only: Weekend Edition

Is it possible to have too much of a kinda decent thing? This edition of One Night Only seeks to find out!

[Note: All minor league numbers are courtesy of StatCorner. HR/BIA = Home Run per Ball in Air. MLB average for starters is 6.5%. MiLB average is I-don’t-know-what.]

Arizona at Chicago (NL) | Saturday, May 01 | 1:05 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
D-Backs: Dan Haren (R)
34.0 IP, 10.06 K/9, 2.12 BB/9, .310 BABIP, 47.3% GB, 18.2% HR/FB, 2.90 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.15 (FAN) 3.24 (CHONE) 3.17 (ZiPS)

Cubs: Carlos Silva (R)
26.0 IP, 5.19 K/9, 1.04 BB/9, .215 BABIP, 41.0% GB, 3.3% HR/FB, 4.10 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.89 (FAN) 4.67 (CHONE) 4.53 (ZiPS)

Persons of Interest
Sabermetric orthodoxy suggested that, at the time of its consummation, the trade between Chicago and Seattle that sent Carlos Silva to the Cubs was a win for the Mariners and for Mariner GM Jack Zduriencik. May 1st is too early to draw any hard and fast conclusions, but if you’d asked a fair sample of non- or only semi-drunk people which player — Silva or Milton Bradley — would have the higher WAR on this date in the history of our nation, very few of them would’ve gone with “the considerably more obese one.”

And yet, here we are, with Silva having earned almost a full win above replacement for his new team. “What gives?” maybe you’re asking. Don’t worry: Dave Cameron’s all over that. A couple-few days ago, he wrote:

Silva, who throughout his entire career has struggled mightily with left-handed hitters, has held them to just three singles in 37 plate appearances in his first four starts. And all three of those singles came in his last start. In his first three appearances, he was perfect against LHBs, as they went 0 for 22 against him.

–snip–

So, naturally, the first thing I did was take a look at his pitch selection. Silva’s lived primarily off of his two-seam fastball for most of his career, which is why he’s posted such large platoon splits. The pitch works against righties, but not against lefties.

Sure enough, Silva has finally decided to abandon his fastball-only approach to pitching. He’s thrown his sinker just 56.5% of the time (compared to 83.1% last year), and has replaced with his change-up, which he’s now thrown 30.7% of the time.

If you’re like me (spiritually ambidextrous, needlessly hifalutin), one thing that appeals to you is to watch a player just after you’ve been given some razor-sharp analysis on his play. In this case, I predict that an entire nation of baseballing nerds will watch with rapt attention as Silva unleashes his changepiece all over some D-Backs*.

*Yes, this is as gross as it sounds.

All-Joy Alert
Kelly Johnson was a pre-season All-Joyer. This is me telling you, “I told you so hard.”

An Historical Fact
On roughly this date, in 1886 in the Year of Our Lord, in this same exact city, the eight-hour work day went some way to becoming a reality.

If I Had My Druthers
• The work day would only be six hours.
• Actually, make that four hours.
• Everyday would be Saturday.

Colorado at San Francisco | Sunday, May 02 | 4:05 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rockies: Jhoulys Chacin (R)
21.3 IP, 8.86 K/9, 4.64 BB/9, .280 BABIP, 54.9% GB, 4.6% HR/BIA, 3.53 FIP (Triple-A)
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 5.02 (CHONE) 4.79 (ZiPS)

Giants: Jonathan Sanchez (L)
24.1 IP, 12.21 K/9, 4.81 BB/9, .282 BABIP, 34.6% GB, 0.0% HR/FB, 3.58 xFIP
Projected FIP: 4.02 (FAN) 4.07 (CHONE) 3.93 (ZiPS)

Persons of Interest
Tonight marks the first Major League start of the season for young righty Jhoulys Chacin, who the Rockies have chosen to take the place of the injured Jorge de la Rosa in the Colorado rotation. In terms of watchability, Chacin’s start is right up the baseball nerd alley*, on account of he’s a pitcher, he’s a prospect, and he’s making (more or less) his debut.

*Yes, this is as gross as it sounds.

What kind of prospect? Depends on who you ask. Our own Marc Hulet placed him second on the Rockies prospect list, writing:

With the ability to keep the ball on the ground and a repertoire that includes two plus pitches (fastball, change-up), Chacin should develop into a No. 3 starter at worst.

Baseball America roughly agrees, placing special emphasis on his changepiece, which the authors describe as his best pitch, and one capable of negating left-handed batters. In either case, it appears as though the challenge for Chacin is his control. Stay tuned as this situation develops!

The reader might also care to cast a gaze at the San Francisco outfield, where Andres Torres and Nate Schierholtz are getting their share of starts in center and right, respectively. Torres, in particular, presents an interesting case to the baseballing nerd. Did you know, for example, that CHONE projects Torres at 2 WAR for the season? Or, how about, did you know that said WAR are projected to come in only 107 GP and 346 PA? After you’ve wiped all the coffee off your monitor, you might consider pointing your web browser to Torres’s player page, where you’ll see that a large portion of his projection is based on the 10.0 UZR — again, in limited playing time.

None of Which Is Even to Mention
Giant starter Jonathan Sanchez and Colorado prospect Eric Young Jr. The former is among the league leaders in strikeouts; the latter has recently been called upon to replace a more-hobbled-than-usual Brad Hawpe. Reports suggest that Colorado will try to get EY more than his share of reps at the Major League level.

A Little Known Fact About Jhoulys Chacin
His first name, when spoken aloud, sounds exactly like the call of the Russet-backed Oropendola, a bird found commonly in Chacin’s native Venezuela.

If I Had My Druthers
• Andres Torres would get the start in center for San Francisco.
• Eric Young Jr. would get the start in left for Colorado.
• The dulcet tones of Jon Miller’s voice would put me into a state of blissful waking sleep.


FanGraphs Audio: Chris Liss of RotoWire

Episode Twenty-Four
In which the guest asks you to excuse his French.

Headlines
Lost in Translation
Asking the Big Questions
Letting a (Fantasy) Player Play
… and other candid observations!

Featuring
Chris Liss, RotoWire Higher-Up

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

Read the rest of this entry »


One Night Only: Awesome Is Their Middle Name

There’s no place like home, America — especially if your home has a sweet TV in it with the Extra Innings package.

Texas at Seattle | Friday, April 30 | 10:10 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rangers: Colby Lewis (R)
23.2 IP, 10.65 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, .317 BABIP, 36.7% GB, 8.3% HR/FB, 3.91 xFIP
Projected FIP: N/A (FAN) 3.99 (CHONE) 4.39 (ZiPS)

Mariners: Cliff Lee (L)
231.2 IP, 7.03 K/9, 1.67 BB/9, .326 BABIP, 41.3% GB, 6.5% HR/FB, 3.69 xFIP (2009)
Projected FIP: 3.16 (FAN) 3.43 (CHONE) 3.47 (ZiPS)

Persons of Interest
For the majority of tonight’s game, the Safeco Field mound will be occupied by a POI (that’s Person of Interest, people — get with it) to the Baseballing Enthusiast. Let me count the ways.

If spilling ink were a possible thing to happen on this wild and beautiful series of tubes we call the internet, then that’s exactly what you’d say this author has done in re Colby Frigging Lewis. And while I’ve been mistaken more often for developmental psychologist Howard Gardner than I have for a real-live Baseball Talent Evaluator, I’m thinking that maybe my very emphatic support for Lewis has earned me some kind of credibility in that area.

So, that’s one thing.

Another thing is how tonight represents the first start of the season for Prize of the Offseason Cliff Lee. Our very own Dave Allen wrote the killerest article about Lee in the Mariners Annual. Rather than reproducing it here in full, allow me to summarize for you: Cliff Lee is off the hizzy.

Want something more specific? You gots it: the cool thing about Cliff Lee is his location. His change-up, almost without exception, is in the low-away quadrant of the strike zone against righties; his cutter, almost always right on a righty’s hands. If hitting is timing and pitching is messing up timing, then Cliff Lee is awesome.

Five Bizarre Connections Between Colby Lewis and Cliff Lee
Put away those Ouija boards, kids, and prepare to get your minds freaked. Behold these five bizarre connections between tonight’s starters.

1. Both pitchers have two first names.
2. Both have the initials C.P.L. (Colby Preston Lewis, Clifton Phifer Lee.)
3. Both pitchers have pitched in the East: Lee in the NL East, Lewis in the Far.
4. Owing to the fact that they’re both so nasty, neither Lewis nor Lee has ever, in fact, kissed his mother with that mouth.
5. Lewis’s secretary was named Kennedy; Lee’s, Lincoln. Don’t even look it up, it’s true. You’ve got the Cistulli Guarantee on that.

Other Players Will Be There Tonight, Too
And all of them will probably strike out.

If I Had My Druthers
• Colby Lewis would steal fire from the gods and give it to humans.
• Colby Lewis would fashion all humankind from clay.
• Colby Lewis would continue to pitch out of his mind, thus validating my continued presence on this, the internet’s clearinghouse for baseball nerdom.


FanGraphs Audio: The Freak Out City Red Sox

Episode Twenty-Three
In which the panel is two doctors in the house.

Headlines
The Red Sox: Freak Out City?
Barry Zito: Same Guy?
Should We Ever Throw Kyle Blanks a Fastball?
A Very Subjective Game Report: KC at Toronto
… and other learned ejaculations!

Featuring
Dave Allen, Doctor of the Heat Map
Matt Klaassen, Doctor of Philosophy of Philosophy

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop.

Read the rest of this entry »


Why We Watch

Contrary to a narrative that — against all odds — has yet to die, it’s probably fair to say that most people find their way to sabermetrics not as a replacement for baseball, but as a means to appreciating baseball more fully. This, I’m almost positive, is the case for my fellow writers here at FanGraphs*, and also for the largest segment of the readership. It’s a fact: we like watching baseball. The numbers simply enhance our understanding of — and, thus, our capacity to enjoy — the experience.

*Except for Dave Allen, that is, who — as I’ve mentioned before — would like the robots to take over, stat.

Here’s my question today, though: why do we watch? Or, more specifically: all things being equal, what compels us to watch one game and not another?

Obviously, team allegiance is a powerful motivating factor. The popularity of SB Nation’s and other, unaffiliated team-specific sites is evidence enough of this. But when our fave team isn’t playing — or just for those of us without very strong ties to our hometown teams — what is it exactly that we’d like to see?

Below are five criteria that some disgustingly haphazard polling has elicited. Feel very free to provide other suggestions in the comments section.

Pitching Matchups
In any given contest, and assuming about six innings per start, a starting pitcher will be involved in roughly a third of a game’s plays. If a certain, unspecified demigod is pitching for a certain, unspecified team located near or around the Dallas Metro area, the odds of a life-altering (or merely ecstatic) viewing experience are pretty good. Make that two notable starters and, just as with so much mint-flavored gum, the pleasure is doubled.

Statistically Notable (or Otherwise Compelling) Players
If the pitching matchup is no great shakes, it’s still possible that three or four or five players between the game’s two teams offer some sort of intriguing storyline. Very often the players might share some of the traits of the All-Joyer (i.e. underrated by traditional metrics, unlucky in a way that xFIP or BABIP might explain). Also, it could just be as simple as liking the looks of a certain player*.

*Side note: while Jayson Werth’s chances of remaining with Philly have probably taken a hit, I have it on good authority that that Ruben Amaro is very interested in signing Jayson Werth’s beard to a long-term deal.

Rookies (and Debuts)
Hope is a powerful force. If it weren’t, lottery tickets would probably be way less popular. In baseball, nothing embodies hope like the rookie player. Stephen Strasburg, and his imminent arrival in the Majors, is so highly anticipated because of feats we think he might accomplish. It’s smart of us, this instinct: if we’re in the business of witnessing the amazing, it’s smartest to invest in relatively unknown, but promising, commodities.

Seasonal Context
Remember last year’s Game 163 between Detroit and Minnesota? I do. I was cheering for the Twins outta my mind despite the fact that I have almost zero connections to that team/city.

Quality of Broadcast
As I mentioned just yesterday in re CSN’s Ken “The Hawk” Harrelson, there are times when the broadcasting team makes a game less watchable. There are other cases — like when Vin Scully is wrecking the mic — where you couldn’t give two frigs about which teams were playing. (Seriously, Vin Scully is like the Platonic Grandpa. Sabermetrics schmabermetrics: if Scully says something, I accept it as incontrovertible fact, owing to his cadence and obvious capital-W Wisdom.)


One Night Only: Where There’s Smoak, There’s Probably Also an Unfortunate Pun

Today’s edition of One Night Only brings both (a) the pain and also (b) some serious HTML action. But mostly it brings the pain.

Chicago (AL) at Texas | Wednesday, April 28 | 8:05 pm ET
Starting Pitchers
White Sox: Jake Peavy (R)
22.1 IP, 6.04 K/9, 6.04 BB/9, .324 BABIP, 33.3% GB, 10.0% HR/FB, 5.99 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.56 (FAN) 3.83 (CHONE) 3.86 (ZiPS)

Rangers: Rich Harden (R)
17.2 IP, 10.19 K/9, 9.17 BB/9, .319 BABIP, 29.2% GB, 10.7% GB, 6.54 xFIP
Projected FIP: 3.64 (FAN) 4.08 (CHONE) 3.85 (ZiPS)

Persons of Interest
Both of tonight’s starting pitchers have begun the season poorly — and, worse yet, they both have Dave Cameron concerned.

Of Peavy, Cameron wrote on April 23rd:

He’s walked as many batters (15) as he’s struck out. His groundball rate is just 33.3%, down from his career average of 41.6 percent, but he’s not giving up more flyballs – instead, those grounders have turned into screaming line drives. Batters are making contact with 84.4 percent of the pitches he throws, and his swinging strike rate is half of what it was in his prime.

A couple-few days before that, our full-time employee wrote of Harden, under the heading “Rich Harden is not right”:

In two starts last week, Harden lasted just 9 2/3 innings, walked nine guys, hit two more, and threw a wild pitch. Command has never been his forte, but he’s now running a 9.45 BB/9 on the season. His fastball averaged just 90.6 MPH, and only 41 percent of his pitches were in the strike zone.

This version of Harden doesn’t appear to have good enough stuff to challenge hitters, and his already poor command just compounds the problem.

It’s true: Harden’s velocity is down — and not just the tiniest bit, as this graph proves incontrovertibly:

The right-most green dots are Harden’s velo from this season. Between Pitchf/x and BIS, it appears as though he’s down about 2 mph from his normal. No, that doesn’t necessarily spell disaster; some pitchers are definitely able to function at lower speeds. But a drop in velocity could also be a sign of injury or fatigue. In any case, it’s not ideal.

On the whole, this game should serve as an opportunity to gather information about two talented pitchers and their respective struggles.

Leaders of Tomorrow
You probably haven’t heard of him, on account of he’s a wicked underground prospect, but a little guy by the name of Justin Smoak was recently promoted from Triple-A Oklahoma City. Baseball America calls his power potential “plus-plus.” Marc Hulet writes that “he projects to be an above-average regular.” Leonard Maltin calls Smoak “a delightful romp” and adds that “if you see one prospect all spring, you should see Justin Smoak.”

Weird, right? That Leonard Maltin would say that about Texas Rangers prospect Justin Smoak?

Smoak is projected by CHONE to bat .244/.347/.371 at the Major League level this season, a line that reflects both his advanced plate discipline and underwhelming power numbers to date (including just 10 home runs in 464 minor league PAs last year). Still, scouts l-o-v-e him, and the K:BB ratios are favorable.

Broadcasts
The game will be broadcast by Comcast SportsNet in Chicago and Fox Sports Southwest in Metro Dallas. While I recognize that some people are amendable to the spirited commentary of Ken “The Hawk” Harrelson, I don’t count myself among this particular demographic. That said, if you’ve never heard the Hawk at work, you should watch the CSN broadcast for at least a couple of innings — if only to understand what the fuss is about.

FSSW broadcaster Josh Lewin, on the other hand, appears to be one of the good guys. Just as the season opened its doors to us, Lewin wrote an open letter to the fellers of Lone Star Ball. His basic point? “I’m sympathetic to the nerds, but I gots to make that paper.”

Yes, that’s 100%, entirely a direct quote.

If I Had My Druthers
Colby Lewis would just get it over with, and admit to everyone that he’s the Son of Man.
• Colby Lewis would soar like an eagle — into my heart.
Julio Borbon would find his way back from the unfortunate 11:1 K:BB with which he’s started the season — like, by drinking a tincture crafted by Colby Lewis, for example.